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Opinion polling for the 2011 Peruvian general election

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Opinion polling was carried out prior to the 2011 Peruvian general election

President

First round

Date Source Keiko Fujimori Alejandro Toledo Ollanta Humala Pedro Pablo Kuczynski Luis Castañeda
January 2010 Ipsos Apoyo 18% 9% 15% 3% 23%
February 2010 Ipsos Apoyo 21% 9% 13% - 22%
March 2010 Ipsos Apoyo 20% 11% 12% - 20%
April 2010 Ipsos Apoyo 18% 12% 14% 2% 22%
May 2010 Ipsos Apoyo 18% 13% 13% 2% 22%
June 2010 Ipsos Apoyo 22% 12% 13% 2% 21%
July 2010 Ipsos Apoyo 22% 14% 12% 2% 20%
August 2010 Ipsos Apoyo 20% 14% 12% 2% 20%
August 2010 Datum 20% 14% 12% - 19%
August 2010 Imasen 19.7% 12.1% 13.6% 1.7% 20.2%
September 2010 CPI 19.6% 14.6% 9.8% 1.2% 23.1%
September 2010 Datum 23% 14% 12% 2% 21%
September 2010 Ipsos Apoyo 24% 16% 14% 2% 19%
September 2010 IMA 25.2% 19.3% 11.8% - 20.1%
October 2010 Datum 24% 16% 11% 1% 26%
October 2010 Ipsos Apoyo 23% 16% 11% 2% 24%
November 2010 CPI 19.6% 20.5% 8% 1.2% 24.1%
November 2010 Ipsos Apoyo 20% 20% 10% 3% 24%
December 2010 IOP 22% 22% 9% 1% 25%
December 2010 Datum 22% 26% 10% 2% 21%
December 2010 IMA 22.8% 28.6% 9.1% - 21%
December 2010 CPI 19.3% 22% 9.8% 3.3% 24.6%
December 2010 Ipsos Apoyo 20% 23% 11% 5% 23%
December 2010 IMA 17.4% 27.3% 10.1% 5.8% 22.8%
January 2011 Datum 20% 27% 10% 4% 22%
January 2011 CPI 18.8% 25.2% 11.7% 5% 22.2%
January 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 22% 27% 10% 5% 19%
January 2011 Imasen 20.3% 30.7% 12.1% 5% 21.3%
February 2011 IOP 20.3% 28.6% 12% 3.6% 17.5%
February 2011 Datum 20% 30% 10% 5% 19%
February 2011 CPI 17.6% 30.2% 10.4% 4.3% 20.2%
February 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 22% 28% 12% 6% 18%
February 2011 IMA 20.7% 36.5% 11% 4.4% 19.9%
February 2011 Datum 19% 28% 11% 5% 19%
February 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 21% 28% 14% 6% 17%
February 2011 CPI 18.8% 28.4% 13.4% 6.4% 20.1%
March 2011 Datum 18% 29% 13% 7% 18%
March 2011 Imasen 19.2% 30% 14.1% 6.4% 19.6%
March 2011 IOP 19.3% 26.6% 15.5% 10.6% 17.3%
14 March 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 19% 26% 15% 9% 17%
21 March 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 19% 23% 17% 14% 14%
20 March 2011 Datum 17% 20.2% 18.5% 12.7% 15.5%
21 March 2011 CPI 20% 20.5% 15.7% 14.9% 17%
25 March 2011 Datum 16.1% 19.4% 17.6% 17.5% 15.5%
27 March 2011 CPI 19% 18.6% 21.2% 16.1% 15.5%
27 March 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 22.3% 21.6% 22.8% 15.8% 15%
31 March 2011 Imasen 17.6% 23.9% 21.9% 16.9% 13.8%
1 April 2011 Datum 16.4% 17.4% 21.4% 17.5% 12.6%
3 April 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 20.5% 18.5% 27.2% 18.1% 12.8%
3 April 2011 CPI 19.1% 19.6% 28.7% 17.8% 14.0%
3 April 2011 Imasen 18.2% 20% 25% 16.5% 11.6%
7 April 2011 CPI 21.5% 15% 29% 19.3%
7 April 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 21.4% 18.2% 28% 18.4%
8 April 2011 Datum 22.3% 15.3% 31.9% 17.3%

There has been a lot of discussion about these polls. For instance, for a while the JNE enforced new regulations where people were obliged to give personal information. After protests by poll organisations and the people of Peru, these regulations were nullified since they were seen as an invasion of the privacy by the poll takers. According to the JNE it is not permitted to publish new polls one week before the day of election.

Ipsos Apoyo polls, 2011

Second round

Date Source Ollanta Humala Keiko Fujimori
24 April 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 42% 36%
28 April 2011 CPI 40.6% 36.8%
29 April 2011 Datum 41.5% 40.3%
4 May 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 39% 38%
7 May 2011 IOP – PUCP 40.7% 40.5%
8 May 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 39% 41%
12 May 2011 Datum 37.9% 40.6%
15 May 2011 CPI 47.1% 52.9%
15 May 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 48.9% 51.1%
15 May 2011 Datum 40.2% 46%
19 May 2011 Datum 41.8% 45.4%
22 May 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 39% 43%
22 May 2011 CPI 46.3% 53.7%
26 May 2011 Datum 47.1% 52.9%
27 May 2011 IOP – PUCP 42.3% 42.8%
29 May 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 49.5% 50.5%
29 May 2011 CPI 48.2% 51.8%
29 May 2011 Datum 47.7% 52.3%
1 June 2011 Datum 49.4% 50.6%
1 June 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 48.9% 51.1%
2 June 2011 CPI 50.5% 49.5%
2 June 2011 IOP – PUCP 51.8% 48.2%
3 June 2011 Datum 50.8% 49.2%
4 June 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 51.9% 48.1%
5 June 2011 Ipsos Apoyo 52.7% 47.3%

References

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