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Statistics on Education and Jobs, with home-made graphs
Percentage of jobs by minimum educational attainmentEducational attainment and income
Instead of us getting into the Misplaced Pages-equivalent of flame wars, I'm going to make more statistical plots and graphs. My goal is to understand the American workplace as it relates to education.
I'm working on taking statistics from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and making them into plots. Fundamentally, my goal is to analyze educational attainment as it relates to labor, with graphs I make myself. This is a work in progress.
These graphs do explain why Kamala Harris won high-income voters, and Trump won low-income voters this year. Median weekly earnings systematically increase as educational attainment increases. It may seem obvious, but the graph here really shows how thorough it is.
Your perceived correlation between higher income and voting Democratic is a spurious relationship; "a mathematical relationship in which two or more events or variables are associated but not causally related, due to either coincidence or the presence of a certain third, unseen factor." Education is the confounding variable. It explains why your hypothesis breaks down for both the highest 1% and lowest 20% of voters. Furthermore, there are other variables that influence voting which may also help explain the false finding.
In order to test your hypothesis, you need to test it.
Could you please provide linear regression analysis with three variables: party, income and education level. Then tell me what the correlation income and party is. Since you have already entered all the data to determine correlation between party and income and party and education, this should be simple.
Once you factor in religion, race and urban/suburban/exurban/rural, you should see strong relationship between income and party preference, with Republican voting correlating to higher levels of income.
Challenge accepted, to show that I really do know linear regression. These were my three variables: Trump & Harris vote share, median income by state, and percentage Bachelor's by state, for all 50 States and D.C. I first did income. The massive outlier for both is the District of Columbia.
Trump Vote Share vs. Median Income in all 50 States and DC
For the 3-D model there are two ways to do it. I bolded the relevant correlations for you. The first is to do it by calculating the correlation between predicted and actual vote share. The second is to do it for the multiple regression model using the summary() function. I did both, but I'm not showing all the summary() data to save space.
