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Voter turnout is a measure of the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot in any given election. In recent years some countries have worried about decreasing voter turnout.
The basic equation for determining if someone will vote is PB + D > C. P is the probability of an individuals vote affecting the outcome of an election, while B is the perceived benefit of their favoured party being elected. D originally stood for civic duty, but today represents any social or personal gratification an individual gets from voting. For a person to vote these factors must outweigh C, the cost in time, effort, and money of voting.
Russian electoral laws render an election invalid if too small a section of the population casts ballots, as did those of Serbia and Montenegro until recent changes after several successive presidential elections were rendered invalid. In the United States, some elections require a double majority to require a reasonable voter turnout.
International differences
| Election turnout in lower house elections from 1960 to 1995 for selected countries
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| *Countries with compulsory voting | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| **Compulsory voting until 1988 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ***Does not include pre-1968 elections, when compulsory voting was in place |
Voter turnout varies considerably from democracy to democracy. It tends to be quite low in the United States, Canada, and Latin America when compared to most of Europe, Oceania and Asia. In Western Europe 77% of eligible voters cast ballots on average, in the United States it is closer to 50%, in Latin America the average has been 53% since 1945. The differences between nations tend to be greater than the gaps between classes, ethnic groups, or regions within nations. Political scientists see two general causes of these differences: culture and institutions. There is great debate between scholars over which causes are the most important.
Cultural factors
Wealth and literacy have some effect on turnout, but are not good measures. Countries such as Angola and Ethiopia have long had high turnouts, but so have the wealthy states of Europe. The United Nations Human Development Index shows some correlation with voter behaviour, with higher standards of living being linked to higher turnout. The age of a democracy is also an important factor. Elections require a considerable degree of involvement by the population, and it takes some time to build up the social aspects of voter behaviour. This is often used to explain the lower turnouts in the newer democracies of Eastern Europe and Latin America. Much of the impetus to vote comes from a sense of civic duty, which also takes time and certain social conditions to develop.
Demographics also have some effect. Globally older people tend to vote more than youths, so somewhat older societies, such as Europe, will have higher turnout than somewhat younger ones like Canada and the United States. Populations that are more mobile, and contain more unmarried individuals also tend to have lower turnouts. In countries that are highly multicultural and multilingual it can be difficult for national election campaigns to connect with all the population.
The nature of elections also varies between nations. In the United States negative campaigning and character attacks are far more common than elsewhere, potentially suppressing outcomes. The focus placed on get out the vote efforts and mass marketing can have important effects on turnout.
Institutional factors
Institutional factors also have an important impact. One of the most direct is compulsory voting. Australia, for instance, makes voter registration and attending at a polling booth on election day mandatory. These rules are strictly enforced, and the country has one of the world's highest voter turnouts. Other countries including Belgium, Argentina, and Fiji also have such laws, with somewhat reduced levels of enforcement. In Italy, for instance, a person who does not vote runs the risk of forfeiting some state benefits. In some countries, such as Mexico and Brazil, these laws exist but punishments are minimal or rarely enforced. These laws have a dramatic effect on turnout, and many of the nations with the highest turnouts use compulsory voting. In two nations, Venezuela and the Netherlands, compulsory voting was eliminated and an immediate and substantial decrease in turnout resulted.
Also of great importance is salience, the effect a vote will have on how the country is run. Switzerland is often presented as an example of a nation with low salience. The nation is highly decentralized, so that federal government has only select powers. The government invariably consists of a coalition of parties, and the power wielded by a party is far more closely linked to its position relative to the coalition than to the number of votes it received. Moreover any decision of major importance will be placed before the population in a referendum. Elections for the Swiss legislature thus have very low turnout. By contrast Malta, with one of the world's highest voter turnouts, has a single legislature that holds near monopoly on political power in the state. It has a two party system in which a small swing in votes can completely alter the executive. Perception of fairness also has an important effect on salience. If voters feel the result of an election is more likely to be determined by fraud and corruption than by the will of the people, fewer people will vote.
Another institutional factor that may have an important effect is proportionality. Proportionality is how closely the legislature reflects the views of the populace. A pure proportional representation system is fully proportional to the votes of the populace. This makes every vote likely to count. By contrast a plurality system will almost always have a fair number of districts where one party is so dominant that there is little reason to vote. Proportionality thus tends to increase turnout. However, proportional systems almost invariably produce a multiparty system and coalition governments with each coalition member having an important influence on policy. This reduces salience, since the voters have little influence over which parties are included in the coalition. For instance, after the 2005 German election the creation of the executive is now a result of politcal deal making, rather than the direct will of the people. Political scientists are thus divided on whether proportional representation systems increases voter turnout, but most feel greater proportionality has at least a somewhat positive effect on turnout.
Also important is how easy it is to vote. In the United States and most Latin American nations voters must complete a separate voter registration before they are allowed to vote. This two-step process quite clearly decreases turnout. U.S. states with no, or easier registration requirements show a clear pattern of larger turnouts. Other methods of improving turnout include making voting easier through more available absentee polling and improved access to polls. In some areas, generally those where polls can be inaccessible such as India and Finland, votes often span several days. Some areas have also pondered internet voting as a possible solution.
Voter fatigue can also lower turnout. If there are many elections in close succession due to unstable governments, or if referenda are held too frequently voter turnout will decrease as the public gets tired of participating. In low turnout Switzerland the average voter is invited to go to the polls an average of seven times per year, while the United States also has very frequent elections, with two votes per year on average.
Differing methods of counting voter turnout can also contributed to perceived differences between nations. In the United States there is no accurate registry of exactly who is eligible to vote. Since registration is option only some 70-75% of people are listed. This means that turnout is calculated based on population estimates. Some political scientists have argued that these measures do not properly account for the large number of illegal aliens and disenfranchised felons in the United States, and the American voter turnout is thus higher than is normally reported. Conversely in New Zealand registration is supposed to be universal, but historically this system has been unreliable, and there was thus a large number of eligible, but unregistered, non-voters, creating inflated turnout figures.
Internal differences
There is also considerable variation within nations between classes, regions, and between elections. Higher income and upper class citizens are more likely to vote almost everywhere. One of the most important factors, even when controlling for income and class, is education. The better educated an individual the more likely they are to vote.
One issue found only in the continent spanning nations such as Canada, the United States and Russia is that of time zones. Western Americans have often complained that since the election has already been decided in the east of the country that turnout is depressed on the Pacific coast. Canada has in the past partially resolved this problem by banning the broadcasting of election results in any region where the polls have not yet closed, but recently this ban has been lifted.
The weather also can have an important effect with rain or snow reducing turnouts, especially among moderates. The date an election is held also can change turnout. Weekend and summer elections find more of the population on holiday or uninterested in politics and have lower turnouts. When nations, such as the United States, set fixed election dates they are usually in mid-week during the spring or fall to maximize turnout.
Political considerations can also affect turnout. Opposition parties will sometimes boycott votes they feel are unfair or illegitimate, or if the election is for a government that is considered illegitimate. For instance the Vatican instructed Italian Catholics to boycott national elections for several decades after the creation of the State of Italy, causing a marked drop in turnout. In some countries, such as during the recent Iraq elections, violence will be threatened against those who do try to vote. See also voter suppression.
One of the factors most likely to increase turnout is a close race. With an intensely polarized electorate and all polls showing a photo finish between President of the United States George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John F. Kerry, the turnout in 2004 was close to 60% resulting in the both candidates setting records for popular votes with Kerry even beating Ronald Reagan's 1984 record despite losing the election. Similarly, sure-thing elections where one vote is not seen to be able to make a difference have resulted in lower turnouts such as Bill Clinton's 1996 re-election, the UK General Election, 2001 and the 2005 Spanish referendum on the European Constitution. All of which produced landslide results on a low turnout.
Decreasing Turnout
For the last forty years voter turnout has been steadily decreasing across the established democracies. This decline has been greatest in the United States, but it also occurred across Western Europe and in other areas such as Japan and Latin America. This decline has been a matter of concern and controversy among political scientists for several decades. This decline in voting has accompanied a general decline in civic participation. Over the same period church attendance, membership in professional, fraternal, and student societies, youth groups, and parent teacher associations all declined significantly. Other forms of political participation also declined, such as volunteering for a political party, attending a town meeting, or writing a newspaper. Some forms of participation have increased. In recent decades people have become far more likely to participate in boycotts, demonstrations, and to donate to political campaigns.
The decline in voter turnout almost wholly manifested among the younger segment of the population. Those who began voting prior to 1960 maintain the same high rate of turnout of that era. For each later generation, beginning with that that came of age in the 1960s, turnout has steadily declined. Some are concerned that this biases the political process, for instance health care may get more funding than education because one is a concern of seniors the other of youths. Youth voter mobilization programs such as MTV's "Rock the Vote" and the "Vote or Die" initiatives in the United States, have worked to encourage those between the ages of 18-25 to vote in the past few years. The 11% increase in voter turnout for American youth in the 2004 election is attributed by some to programs like these.
There is also concern that decreasing voter turnout will radicalize politics. If most voters are the core supporters of a party then getting out the vote efforts become increasingly important and begin to replace actually winning the votes of the undecided. This can lead to parties shunning centrist position for ones that will appeal to the base.
A wide array of causes have been proposed for this decline, and it is most likely a combination of factors:
- When asked many report that to little free time is a major reason for note voting. However, over the last several decades, studies have consistently shown that the amount of leisure time has not decreased. However, the general perception is that one is busier is common.
- Negative campaigning has become ubiquitous in the United States and also has become more common elsewhere in the world. It has been argued that attack ads and smear campaigns give voters a negative impression of the entire political process. The evidence for this is mixed, however. Elections with highly unpopular incumbents generally have high turnout. Some studies have found that mud slinging and character attacks reduce turnout, but substantive attacks on a party's record can increase it.
- There has been a wide array of other social changes over the last few decades. Geographic mobility has increased. There are often barriers to voting in a district where one is a recent arrival, and a new arrival is likely to know little about the local candidate and local issues. The average age of first marriage has increased, and divorce rates have skyrocketed. Single people are generally less likely to vote.
- Francis Fukuyama has blamed the welfare state, arguing that the decrease in turnout has come shortly after the government became far more involved in people's lives. However, on an international level those states with the most extensive social programs tend to be the ones with the highest turnouts.
- In the United States the 1960s and 1970s saw the Vietnam War and Watergate scandal, both of which caused voters to lose faith in their political leaders. Many other nations saw a similar era of protest and alienation during this era in part linked to the demographic effect of the baby boom.
- Robert D. Putnam argues that collapse in civil engagement is due to television. The decline in turnout closely matches the rapid introduction of television in the 1950s and 1960s. As television became the main form of leisure, traditional, group based, recreations such as bowling leagues and bridge clubs, disappeared and people generally withdrew from society.
- Rosenstone and Hansen also believe that new media is to blame, but that the decline in turnout is the product of a change in campaigning strategies. Before television almost all of a party's resources would be directed towards intensive local campaigning and get out the vote initiatives. In the modern era these resources have been redirected to expensive media campaigns in which the potential voter is a passive participant.
Notes
- Mark N. Franklin. "Electoral Participation." in Controversies in Voting Behavior pg. 87
- Richard S. Katz. Democracy and Elections. New York: Oxford University Press, 1997.
- Robert W. Jackman and Ross A. Miller. "Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies During the 1980s." in Elections and Voting Behaviour: New Challenges, New Perspectives. pg. 308
- Katz pg. 240
- Richard G. Niemi and Herbert F. Weisberg. Controversies in Voting Behavior pg. 31
- Katz pg. 239
- Niemi and Weisberg pg. 25
- Katz pg. 334
- Franklin pg. 98
- Katz pg. 242
- Niemi and Weisberg pg. 31
- Putnam pg. 40
- Putnam pg. 61
- Steven J. Rosenstone and John Mark Hansen. "Solving the Puzzle of Participation in Electoral Politics." pg. 73
External links
References
- Eisner, Jane. "American Rhythms | Rock the Vote, now 15, eager to help drive policy." Philadelphia Inquirer 12 June 2005. 12 July 2005 <http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centredaily/news/opinion/11872741.htm>.
- Niemi, Richard G. and Herbert F. Weisberg. eds. Controversies in Voting Vehavior. Washington, D.C: CQ Press, 2001.
- Norris, Pippa. Elections and Voting Behaviour: New Challenges, New Perspectives. Aldershot: Ashgate, Dartmouth, 1998.