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Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation.

The Earth's global surface temperature is determined by the amount of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth and the retention of that heat by greenhouse gases. This Earth's average temperature has increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 100 years ending in 2005. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the temperature increase since the mid-twentieth century is "very likely" due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The anthropogenic attribution of recent global warming has been endorsed by at least 30 scientific societies and academies of science. While a small minority have voiced disagreement with these findings, the overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agreed with the IPCC's main conclusions.

Climate model projections indicate that global surface temperature will likely rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the twenty-first century. The uncertainty in this estimate arises from use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions and from use of models with differing climate sensitivity. Some other uncertainties include how warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe. Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, warming is expected to continue even in the absence of new emissions because of the large heat capacity of the oceans, and the lifespan of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Increasing global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, likely including an expanse of the subtropical desert regions. Other likely effects include Arctic shrinkage and resulting Arctic methane release, increases in the intensity of extreme weather events, changes in agricultural yields, modifications of trade routes, glacier retreat, species extinctions and changes in the ranges of disease vectors.

Political and public debate continues regarding what, if any, responses to global warming are made. Possible responses include Mitigation to reduce further emissions and Adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

1. ^ "Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007-02-05. Retrieved 2007-02-02. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
2. ^ Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature.
3. The 2001 joint statement was signed by the scientific academies of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK. The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexico and South Africa. Professional societies include American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Astronomical Society, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society of London, Geological Society of America, American Chemical Society, and Engineers Australia.
4. "Don't fight, adapt". National Post. 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-18. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
5. "A guide to facts and fictions about climate change". Royal Society. 2005. Retrieved 2007-11-18. However, the overwhelming majority of scientists who work on climate change agreed on the main points {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
6. "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change". Science. 2004. Retrieved 2008-01-04. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help); Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
7. Archer, David (2005), "Fate of fossil fuel CO
   ₂ in geologic time" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 110 (C9): C09S05.1–C09S05.6, doi:10.1029/2004JC002625, retrieved 2007-07-27
8. Caldeira, Ken; Wickett, Michael E. (2005), "Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research, 110 (C9): C09S04.1–C09S04.12, doi:10.1029/2004JC002671, retrieved 2007-07-27
9. Lu, Jian (2007). "Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 34: L06805. doi:10.1029/2006GL028443. Retrieved 12/06/2008. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help); Unknown parameter |xauthorlink= ignored (help)