Natasha Demkina

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Natasha Demkina (Наталья Демкина) (198?-), called "The Girl with X-ray Eyes," is a teenage alleged medical psychic from Saransk, Russia. Demkina is said to possess a special vision that allows her to look inside human bodies and see organs and tissues, and thereby make medical diagnoses. Believers of her power claim these diagnoses are often more accurate than those of doctors. She has demonstrated her readings on television shows in the United Kingdom and, more recently, in a documentary for the Discovery Channel titled "The Girl with X-Ray Eyes". After the latter demonstration, researchers rejected the likelihood of her having such an ability, though her believers criticize the methods and conclusions of the researchers.

The CSMMH-CSICOP test

On May 1, 2004, she was tested under partially controlled conditions at the City College of New York, in New York City. This test was documented in the Discovery Channel program, "The Girl with X-ray Eyes," and is described in two reports in the May/June 2005 issue of The Skeptical Inquirer and in several online reports by the researchers. The parameters and conclusions of the test have been criticized by believers of paranormal abilities, and the prior bias of the research team has been questioned.

The test was designed and conducted by Ray Hyman, Ph.D and Richard Wiseman, Ph.D., both research fellows of Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP); and Andrew Skolnick, M.S., executive director of the Commission for Scientific Medicine and Mental Health (CSMMH) and former associate editor of the Journal of the American Medical Association. The work in this particular field by these researchers has drawn much criticism from other paranormal investigators, particularly believers.

Prior to the test, Demkina, her mother and agent, and the researchers agreed on the rules and expectations of the test, which were finalized in writing. The research team proposed a test which they determined should be easy to meet for a person with trans-dermal vision. Seven volunteers, six with known medical conditions ranging from a cranial metal plate to a removed appendix, were placed in a room around Demkina without indication of their condition. She would then be given, individually, one of six cards describing one of those six conditions, each of which are diagnosable via radiology. Demkina's task was to identify which of the volunteers suffered from the condition described on the given card. To pass this test, Demkina would have to correctly match five of the six conditions against the seven possible sufferers.

Demkina took a full hour to make her choice for the first condition, despite her reputation of finding ailments within minutes. Her remaining five choices were completed after three hours. At the end of the test, she had correctly identified four of the ailments with their sufferers from among the candidates, falling one short of the agreed-upon passing mark. The researchers concluded that, having failed the test, the existence of her special ability was dubious.

Criticism of the test

Unfairly high expectation

Critics of the test point out that, despite the bar set in the test, the probability of correctly matching four hidden ailments among seven subjects is much lower than even odds, but closer to 1 in 50. (The blind odds of the test's passing mark is about 1 in 250.) Therefore, while not passing the test, Demkina still exhibited a better-than-average ability to diagnose internal ailments without help of trained medical assistance or technology.

Assessment of abilities

Critics argue that the researchers did not base the test on Demkina's own claims of her abilities, but only from second-hand and third-hand sources such as non-scientific newspapers, Internet research, and Monica Garnsey, producer of the Discovery Channel program. Ultimately, Demkina and her supporters argue that she never indicated that she could diagnose all of the ailments included in the test, particularly appendectomy and esophageal scars. The researchers' basis for including these (as well as the other) conditions was reportedly from third-party descriptions of her ability as being able to see organs inside the body.

The appendectomy candidate

Among her false diagnoses was to find the candidate who had had an appendectomy. Demkina's choice had an abdominal scar. While this is not sufficient evidence of an appendectomy, some of Demkina's supporters argue that it was an easy mistake, and moreover, the inclusion of that candidate was done to deliberately fool Demkina.

Demkina later protested that she could not have identified a subject missing an appendix, as the surgery would leave scar tissue that she cannot see through. With two candidates with abdominal scars, and therefore scar tissue, she could not tell which of the two had an appendix.

It was later discovered that, in fact, a second candidate had also had an appendectomy which was not revealed to the researchers. However, Demkina did not pick this candidate either. But the miscommunication of that candidate's conditions has caused some to question the accuracy of the information on the others. The researchers have admitted that their determination of the candidates' conditions were based solely on their own testaments, not on any sort of medical examination.

Furthermore, some point out, the location of the appendix within the body can vary, and this can cause difficulty in diagnosing appendicitis, even by medical experts.

Inconclusive conclusion

The researchers' made statements that their test showed Natasha is "living an illusion", and that they had settled the question of Natasha's powers, based on the fact that the test to prove her powers failed. However, critics argue this is a negative proof. Other scientists, particularly physicist and paranormal believer Brian David Josephson, have criticized the test and the conclusions drawn from it by CSICOP. Some feel that statements and conclusions such as these are in conflict with the researchers' own characterization of the test as "not in any way a definitive test" and one which could not determine Demkina's powers "with comfortable certainty". The researchers themselves initially expressed concern over the Discovery Channel's characterization of the test as being conclusive.

Defense of the test

The coordinators of the test point out that despite flaws in the design of the test, the design was approved by Demkina, her mother, and her agent. In addition, the researchers themselves cite irregularities and flaws in the controlled environment of the test and its execution that contributed to Demkina's above-average (though failed by definition) performance.

Level of blindness in study

Although the odds of blindly guessing four or more matches correctly are approximately one in fifty, Demkina had not been guessing blindly, the researchers say.

The diagnosis candidates wore glasses with opaque lenses, to avoid providing eye movements or other ocular reactions to Demkina's presence. Demkina was also not allowed to see them move when she wanted them to stand or sit, having to turn her back while they changed position. This was to avoid any visual identification of conditions that can affect a patient's motions, such as an artificial hip. The candidates were also not told which condition Demkina was looking for at a given time. However, the researchers assert some exceptions to these blinds.

An early design called for Demkina to assess the candidates behind a fabric screen. The researchers argued that since Demkina professed an ability to see through clothing, she should be able to see through such a screen. Demkina did not agree to a screen.

As a result, Demkina was able to study the subjects for more than four hours, during which the researchers feel she had much opportunity to gain insights about the candidate's health problems via normal sight and hearing. The practical ability of a medical layperson to make such visual diagnoses has not been assessed, though Demkina's reputation has brought her into contact with a high number of people with various subdermal ailments.

Leaks in blindness

While searching for one of the ailments, a partial lung, Demkina asked a question in front of the candidates which indicated the ailment. This may have caused a reaction from the candidate suffering the ailment which Demkina noticed. Whether or not this occured is not certain, but creates a hole in the blindness of that particular identification. Demkina identified that ailment correctly.

According to the researchers, Demkina arrived at the test facility earlier than they expected. During this time, they argue, the possibility exists that she witnessed some of the candidates arriving, and through this out-of-bounds experience saw some indication of a condition. One condition that could be determined in this way, by watching a person walk, is an artificial hip. During the test, Demkina correctly identified the candidate with the artificial hip. Whether or not the canididate had any visible irregularity in walking is unknown.

The "control" candidate, who had none of the target ailments, reportedly looked younger and healthier than the others. The researchers, who chose the candidates themselves, suggest the control candidate was obvious. Demkina successfully identified the control candidate.

The candidate with a heart condition and related staples in his chest, reportedly looked older and less healthy than the others, and was also male. The researchers suggest this made him the visibly most likely candidate for that ailment. Demkina successfully identified his ailment.

Obvious misses

One ailment Demkina failed to properly identify was the candidate with a cranial metal plate. The researchers argue that such a plate should be very easy to detect; it can be felt on the scalp and even seen with close visual examination.

The candidate she did choose as having the skull plate wore a hat.

Supplementary examination of a researcher

Prior to the test, one of the researchers (Skolnick) executed an impromptu, informal experiment, having Demkina evaluate him for undisclosed ailments. During this challenge, she gave diagnoses of conditions which the researcher denies having, and failed to diagnose any of his known ailments. There was no recording of this test, and it was not officially considered part of her testing.

Inconsistency of test results versus reputation

At one point during the course of the four-hour test, Demkina's mother, who had been excluded from the testing room, stated that Natasha had never given a flawed diagnosis. Researchers suggest her three flawed diagnoses during the test puts that claim into doubt.

Difference in environment

The researchers argue that Demkina's improved accuracy rate outside of a controlled study as opposed to within one suggest that her skill is less rooted in supernatural ability, or even medical knowledge, but on cold reading techniques widely used by psychics, astrologers, and other fortune tellers -- with the help of the selection bias of believers. She also appears to be helped by external clues from the person she is reading, including clues that are subtle and unintentional, such as the Clever Hans effect.

References

Hyman, R. (2005) "Testing Natasha". The Skeptical Inquirer 29 (3),28-33
Skolnick, A. (2005) "Natasha Demkina: the girl with normal eyes". The Skeptical Inquirer 29 (3),34-37
(2004) "The Girl with X-ray Eyes". The Discovery Channel

External links

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Paranormal phenomena

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