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 Lower house seat outcome of the Victorian 2010 election | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2010 Victorian state election was held on 27 November. The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party government, led by John Brumby, was defeated by the centre-right Liberal/National Coalition opposition, led by Ted Baillieu.
Victoria has compulsory voting and uses preferential ballot in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable vote in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).
Results
Legislative Assembly
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Seats | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Template:Australian politics/party colours/Liberal | | Liberal | 38.2 | +3.7 | 35 | +12 | |
| Template:Australian politics/party colours/Labor | | Labor | 36.1 | –6.9 | 43 | –12 | |
| Template:Australian politics/party colours/Greens | | Greens | 11.0 | +0.9 | 0 | 0 | |
| Template:Australian politics/party colours/Nationals | | National | 7.0 | +1.9 | 10 | +1 | |
| Other | 7.7 | +0.4 | 0 | –1 | ||
| Total | 88 | |||||
| Template:Australian politics/party colours/Liberal | | Liberal/National Coalition | 45 | +13 | |||
| Template:Australian politics/party colours/Labor | | Labor | 43 | –12 |
Results are not final. No seats remain in doubt. The new Liberal/National government was sworn in on 2 December. Daniel Andrews replaced Brumby as Labor leader on 3 December.
Legislative Council
In the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, counting and an outcome will take weeks, with predictions ranging from a minor party/independent balance of power to a Coalition majority (21 of 40 seats). The ABC election calculator currently predicts 19 Coalition, 17 Labor, 2 Green, 1 Australian Sex Party and 1 Country Alliance.
Seats changing hands
Campaign
See also: Candidates of the Victorian state election, 2010
The Coalition launched their campaign on 14 November 2010 at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre in the electoral district of Melbourne, with the slogan: "Fix the problems. Build the future." Labor launched their campaign on 16 November 2010 in the electoral district of Bendigo East, using the slogan: "For the times ahead." The Greens ran with the slogan "This time, I'm voting Green".
The Liberal and National Parties contested the election as a Coalition. They had not done so since the previous agreement lapsed in 2000. The Liberal Party departed from tradition and preferenced the Greens last instead of above Labor. Without Liberal preferences, the chances of the Greens winning up to four inner city seats from Labor were decreased.
Background
See also: Results and maps of the Victorian state election, 2006 See also: Post-election pendulum for the Victorian state election, 2006Labor led by Steve Bracks came to power as a minority government at the 1999 election, defeating the incumbent Jeff Kennett Liberal/National Coalition government. Labor was returned with a majority government after a landslide win at the 2002 election. Labor was elected for a third term at the 2006 election with a substantial but reduced majority. Labor won 55 of the 88 seats up for election, a decrease of 7, and 54.4 percent of the two-party preferred vote, a decrease of 3.4 percent. Brumby replaced Bracks as Labor leader and Premier of Victoria in 2007.
Between the 2006 and 2010 elections, four by-elections were held; in Bracks' seat of Williamstown and former Deputy Premier John Thwaites' seat of Albert Park in 2007, former minister Andre Haermeyer's seat of Kororoit in 2008, and former minister Lynne Kosky's seat of Altona in 2010. All four seats were retained by Labor. Labor MP Craig Langdon resigned from his seat of Ivanhoe in August 2010, however the by-election writ was discharged by the Parliamentary Speaker due to the proximity of the state election coupled with the cost of holding a by-election.
Key dates
Terms are fixed at four years. Elections occur in line with the fixed term provisions laid out in the Electoral Act 2002.
Key dates for the election were:
- 2 November: Dissolution of Parliament and lodgement of election writs
- 9 November: Close of rolls
- 11 November: Close of nominations for party candidates
- 12 November: Close of nominations for independents
- 15 November: Early voting commences
- 25 November: Close of postal voting
- 26 November: Early voting closes
- 27 November: Election day (polls open 8am to 6pm)
Retiring MPs
Labor
- Peter Batchelor MLA (Thomastown)
- Bob Cameron MLA (Bendigo West)
- Carlo Carli MLA (Brunswick)
- Judy Maddigan MLA (Essendon)
- Karen Overington MLA (Ballarat West)
- George Seitz MLA (Keilor)
Liberal
- Helen Shardey MLA (Caulfield)
- John Vogels MLC (Western Victoria Region)
National
- Ken Jasper MLA (Murray Valley)
Polling
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at ±3 percent.
| Labor Brumby |
Liberal Baillieu | |
|---|---|---|
| 23 – 25 Nov 2010 | 48% | 38% |
| 9 – 11 Nov 2010 | 50% | 36% |
| Sep – Oct 2010 | 49% | 31% |
| Jul – Aug 2010 | 52% | 27% |
| May – Jun 2010 | 47% | 31% |
| Mar – Apr 2010 | 49% | 29% |
| Jan – Feb 2010 | 51% | 29% |
| Nov – Dec 2009 | 54% | 26% |
| Sep – Oct 2009 | 52% | 27% |
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 52% | 27% |
| May – Jun 2009 | 54% | 21% |
| Jan – Feb 2009 | 54% | 22% |
| Nov – Dec 2008 | 49% | 27% |
| Sep – Oct 2008 | 45% | 27% |
| Jul – Aug 2008 | 48% | 26% |
| May – Jun 2008 | 51% | 28% |
| Mar – Apr 2008 | 49% | 23% |
| Jan – Feb 2008 | 48% | 25% |
| Nov – Dec 2007 | 51% | 22% |
| Sep – Oct 2007 | 51% | 25% |
| 2006 election | – | – |
| 22 – 23 Nov 2006 | 53% | 30% |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. Steve Bracks. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. | ||
| Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lab | Lib | Nat | Gre | Oth | Lab | Coa | ||||
| 23 – 25 Nov 2010 | 33% | 40% | 5% | 15% | 7% | 48.9% | 51.1% | |||
| 9 – 11 Nov 2010 | 37% | 39% | 5% | 14% | 5% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2010 | 35% | 36% | 4% | 19% | 6% | 52% | 48% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2010 | 38% | 32% | 4% | 17% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
| May – Jun 2010 | 34% | 36% | 4% | 18% | 8% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Mar – Apr 2010 | 37% | 38% | 3% | 14% | 8% | 52% | 48% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2010 | 39% | 36% | 3% | 14% | 8% | 54% | 46% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2009 | 41% | 32% | 3% | 14% | 10% | 57% | 43% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2009 | 43% | 32% | 3% | 15% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 43% | 35% | 2% | 12% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
| May – Jun 2009 | 42% | 34% | 3% | 14% | 7% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2009 | 46% | 31% | 2% | 15% | 6% | 60% | 40% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2008 | 45% | 34% | 3% | 13% | 5% | 57% | 43% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2008 | 37% | 37% | 4% | 15% | 7% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2008 | 41% | 34% | 4% | 12% | 9% | 54% | 46% | |||
| May – Jun 2008 | 41% | 35% | 3% | 14% | 7% | 55% | 45% | |||
| Mar – Apr 2008 | 44% | 33% | 3% | 12% | 8% | 58% | 42% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2008 | 43% | 34% | 3% | 12% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2007 | 51% | 31% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 60% | 40% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2007 | 49% | 36% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 2006 election result | 43.1% | 34.4% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 54.4% | 45.6% | |||
| 22 – 23 Nov 2006 | 45% | 32% | 5% | 9% | 9% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. | ||||||||||
Sky News exit polls in marginal seats recorded a Coalition 54-46 Labor result.
Newspaper endorsements
| Dailies | Sundays | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newspaper | Endorsement | Newspaper | Endorsement | |||
| The Age
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #F00011;" data-sort-value="Australian Labor Party" | |
Labor | The Sunday Age
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #F00011;" data-sort-value="Australian Labor Party" | |
Labor | |||
| The Australian
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #F00011;" data-sort-value="Australian Labor Party" | |
Labor | The Weekend Australian | ||||
| The Australian Financial Review
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #F00011;" data-sort-value="Australian Labor Party" | |
Labor | |||||
| The Herald Sun
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #F00011;" data-sort-value="Australian Labor Party" | |
Labor | Sunday Herald Sun
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #F00011;" data-sort-value="Australian Labor Party" | |
Labor | |||
References
- http://www.tallyroom.vic.gov.au/
- http://www.abc.net.au/elections
- Seats in Doubt, Victorian 2010 state election: ABC
- Baillieu sworn in as Premier: ABC 2 December 2010
- Daniel Andrews new Victorian Labor leader: The Australian 4 December 2010
- Coalition on the verge of upper house control: The Age 28 November 2010
- Electoral landslide could give Coalition two houses of Parliament: The Age 29 November 2010
- Activist poised to control state's upper house: The Age 30 November 2010
- Upper house summary: ABC
- Best, Catherine (11 February 2008). "Coalition reunites in Victoria". Retrieved 14 March 2010.
- Greens still hopeful of winning seats: ABC 15 November 2010
- Speaker decides against Ivanhoe by-election, ABC News, 14 September 2010.
- "Section 63, Electoral Act 2002". Retrieved 6 September 2010.
- "2010 Victorian state election information: VEC". Vec.vic.gov.au. 20 August 2010. Retrieved 28 November 2010.
- "'Swing is on' as voters turn against Labor: ABC News 27 November 2010". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 28 November 2010.
- "Leaders have delivered a choice between clear alternatives". The Age. 26 November 2010. Retrieved 27 November 2010.
- "Labor? Liberal? What difference would it make?". The Sunday Age. 21 November 2010. Retrieved 27 November 2010.
- "The compelling case for a vote against complacency". The Australian. 26 November 2010. Retrieved 27 November 2010.
- "Brumby earns another term". The Australian Financial Review. 26 November 2010. Retrieved 27 November 2010.
- "A tight contest between clones". The Herald Sun. 26 November 2010. Retrieved 27 November 2010.
- "Victoria deserves strong leadership from next state government". Sunday Herald Sun. 21 November 2010. Retrieved 27 November 2010.
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