Misplaced Pages

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by 194.254.137.115 (talk) at 11:29, 4 December 2011. The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

This article does not cite any sources. Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. Find sources: "Gompertz distribution" – news · newspapers · books · scholar · JSTOR (December 2011) (Learn how and when to remove this message)

Gompertz distribution

Probability density function Note: b=2.322
Cumulative distribution function Note: b=2.322
Parameters	${\displaystyle \eta ,b>0\,\!}$
PDF	${\displaystyle b\eta e^{bx}e^{\eta }\exp \left(-\eta e^{bx}\right)}$
CDF	${\displaystyle 1-\exp \left(-\eta \left(e^{bx}-1\right)\right)}$
Mean	${\displaystyle (-1/b)e^{\eta }{\text{Ei}}\left(-\eta \right)}$ ${\displaystyle {\text{where Ei}}\left(z\right)=\int \limits _{-z}^{\infty }\left(e^{-u}/u\right)du}$
Mode	${\displaystyle =\left(1/b\right)\ln \left(1/\eta \right)\ }$ ${\displaystyle {\text{with }}0<{\text{F}}\left(x^{*}\right)<1-e^{-1}=0.632121,0<\eta <1}$ ${\displaystyle =0,\quad \eta \geq 1}$
Variance	${\displaystyle \left(1/b\right)^{2}e^{\eta }\{-2\eta {\ }_{3}{\text{F}}_{3}\left(1,1,1;2,2,2;-\eta \right)+\gamma ^{2}}$${\displaystyle +\left(\pi ^{2}/6\right)+2\gamma \ln \left(\eta \right)+^{2}-e^{\eta }^{2}\}}$ ${\displaystyle {\text{ where }}\gamma {\text{ is the Euler constant: }}\,\!}$ ${\displaystyle \gamma =-\psi \left(1\right)={\text{0.5777215... }}}$${\displaystyle {\text{ and }}{}_{3}{\text{F}}_{3}\left(1,1,1;2,2,2;-z\right)=}$ ${\displaystyle \sum _{k=0}^{\infty }\left\left(-1\right)^{k}\left(z^{k}/k!\right)}$

The Gompertz distribution is an extreme value (reverted Gumbel distribution) distribution (i.e., the distribution of ${\displaystyle -x}$) truncated at zero. It has been used as a model of customer lifetime.

Specification

Probability density function

The probability density function of the Gompertz distribution is:

${\displaystyle f\left(x|\eta ,b\right)=b\eta e^{bx}e^{\eta }\exp \left(-\eta e^{bx}\right)}$

where ${\displaystyle b>0\,\!}$ is the scale parameter and ${\displaystyle \eta >0\,\!}$ is the shape parameter of the Gompertz distribution.

Cumulative distribution function

The cumulative distribution function of the Gompertz distribution is:

${\displaystyle F\left(x|\eta ,b\right)=1-\exp \left(-\eta \left(e^{bx}-1\right)\right)}$

where ${\displaystyle \eta ,b>0,x>0\,\!}$.

Moment generating function

The moment generating function is such as: ${\displaystyle {\text{E}}\left(e^{-tx}|\eta ,b\right)=\eta e^{\eta }{\text{E}}_{t/b}\left(\eta \right)}$
With ${\displaystyle {\text{E}}_{t/b}\left(\eta \right)=\int _{1}^{\infty }e^{-\eta v}v^{-t/b}dv,\ t>0}$

Properties

The Gompertz distribution is right-skewed for all values of ${\displaystyle \eta \,\!}$.

Shapes

The Gompertz density function can take on different shapes depending on the values of the shape parameter ${\displaystyle \eta \,\!}$:

• ${\displaystyle \eta \geq 1\,}$ the probability density function has its mode at 0.
• ${\displaystyle \eta <1\,}$ the probability density function has its mode at

${\displaystyle x^{*}=\left(1/b\right)\ln \left(1/\eta \right){\text{with }}0<{\text{F}}\left(x^{*}\right)<1-e^{-1}=0.632121}$

Related distributions

The Gompertz distribution is a natural conjugate to a gamma distribution. If ${\displaystyle \eta \,\!}$ varies according to a gamma distribution with shape parameter ${\displaystyle \alpha \,\!}$ and scale parameter ${\displaystyle \beta \,\!}$ (mean = ${\displaystyle \alpha \beta \,\!}$), the cumulative distribution function is Gamma/Gompertz (G/G).

See also

• Gompertz function
• Gompertz–Makeham law of mortality
• Customer lifetime value
• Gumbel distribution

References

• Bemmaor, Albert C. (2011). "Modeling Purchasing Behavior With Sudden 'Death': A Flexible Customer Lifetime Model". Management Science. Articles in Advance. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1461. {{cite journal}}: Check |doi= value (help); External link in |doi= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
• Bemmaor, Albert C.; Glady, Nicolas (2011). "Implementing the Gamma/Gompertz/NBD Model in MATLAB" (PDF). Cergy-Pontoise: ESSEC Business School.
• Gompertz, B. (1825). "On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies". Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. 115. London: 513–583. {{cite journal}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |1= (help)
• Johnson, N. L.; Kotz, S.; Balakrishnan, N. (1995). "Continuous Univariate Distributions". 2 (2nd ed.). New York: John Wiley & Sons. {{cite journal}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |1= (help); Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
• Sheikh, A. K. (1989). "Truncated extreme value model for pipeline reliability". Reliability, Engrg. System Safety. 25 (1): 1–14. {{cite journal}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)

• Continuous distributions