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The 2016 presidential campaign of John Ellis "Jeb" Bush, the 43rd Governor of Florida, is expected to be formally launched on June 15, 2015, coming six months after announcing the formal exploration of a candidacy for the 2016 Republican nomination for the President of the United States on December 16, 2014, and the formation of his Right to Rise PAC.

Background

In 1994, Bush was the Republican nominee for Governor of Florida, losing narrowly to Lawton Chiles, the incumbent. Four years later, in 1998, Bush ran again, defeating Lieutenant Governor Buddy MacKay (incumbent Governor Lawton Chiles would die in early December 1998, so although defeating McKay, Bush would succeed McKay who ascended upon Chiles' death). He was reelected in 2002 by a sizeable margin.

The son of George H.W. Bush and younger brother of George W. Bush, the 41st and 43rd Presidents of the United States, respectively, Jeb Bush would be, if elected, the first brother of a President, and his father, George H.W. Bush, would be the first President to have two sons hold the same office.

There has been speculation that Bush would make a run for President since the end of the 2012 election. Speculation was fueled when Bush announced he would be "actively exploring" a run for President on December 16, 2014 and resigned from several corporate boards. It has been further speculated that Bush has put off formally announcing a candidacy in order to raise unlimited amounts of money for his Right to Rise Super PAC, and prepare strategy; once formally a candidate, Bush cannot coordinate with PACs or Super PACs under campaign finance law.

Exploration of a candidacy

On December 16, 2016, Bush announced the formation of The Right to Rise PAC, a Super PAC intended to serve as an exploratory committee and fundraising mechanism for a potential candidacy. While not formally a candidate, he was the first potential contender to make any major moves toward the beginning of the 2016 election cycle. Widely seen as the 'establishment' candidate, Bush was expected to court and win donors who were central to the 2012 presidential election on the Republican side. While having repeatedly said he wouldn't run again, 2012 nominee Governor Mitt Romney told donors in early January 2015 that he was seriously considering another run. With early polling showing significant buyer's remorse among many who voted for President Obama in 2012, and showing that he would defeat Hillary Clinton, Romney likely saw it necessary to see if he could tap into his donor base again, to which Bush was the likely successor. After several weeks' consideration, Romney chose against running again, after receiving criticism from many in his own party who wanted a fresher face, and having lost many staff who joined Bush's team before Romney reconsidered. With Romney conclusively out of the race, Bush was seen as the likely front runner for the nomination.

In February 2015, Bush preemptively released his official emails from his time as Governor of Florida, which came with some controversy as personal information, which was soon redacted, was included in the release.

By extending the 'exploration mode' of his 'potential candidacy' to a six-month period (his scheduled announcement one day short of six months after his exploratory phase), Bush has used his time to get acquainted with the press, court donors, and prepare strategy. In doing this, he gets around several campaign finance laws which limit donations which persons may make to individual's campaigns, and which prohibit Super PACs from directly coordinating with candidates' campaigns. By May 2015, it was roughly estimated that Bush had raised in excess of $100 million for his Right to Rise PAC, which is expected to exceed his challengers in the Republican field.

One of the largest issues expected to face Governor Bush is the unpopular image of his brother, President George W. Bush, as well as many who say they do not wish to see a third Bush in the presidency. Governor Bush has come out saying "I'm my own man" with regard to his policies and vision, and further saying "I love my mom and dad. I love my brother, and people are just going to have to get over that." Governor Bush has publicly stated that his brother is his 'top foreign policy advisor', having learned from his brother's presidency about "protecting the homeland" and that his brother "kept us safe."

Bush appeared as Bob Schieffer's final interview guest on Face the Nation during his retirement episode.

The Kelly File Interview

In an interview with Fox News' Megyn Kelly, which aired on The Kelly File on May 11, Bush was questioned on a wide variety of topics, including the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Asked by Kelly:

Kelly: "Knowing what we know now, would you have authorized the invasion?"

Bush: "I would have, and so would have Hillary Clinton, just to remind everybody, and so would have almost everybody that was confronted with the intelligence they got."

Kelly: "You don't think it was a mistake?"

Bush: "In retrospect, the intelligence that everybody saw, that the world saw, not just the United States, was, um, faulty, and in retrospect, once we, once we, um, invaded, and took out Saddam Hussein, we didn't focus on security first, and the Iraqis in this incredibly insecure environment turned on the United States military because there was no security for themselves and their families. By the way, guess who thinks those mistakes took place as well? George W. Bush. Just for the news flash to the world if they're trying to find places between me and my brother, this might not be one of those..."

Bush's answer to the question implying whether or not his brother, the President, made a mistake, generated a large amount of controversy on both Republican and Democratic sides. Those who blasted Bush for his answer criticized the fact that he answered the question he wanted to answer, not the one he heard. The following day, in a readio itnerview with Fox News' Sean Hannity, Bush said "clearly there were mistakes as it related to faulty intelligence in the lead-up to the war and the lack of focus on security;" throughout the remainer of the week, Bush issued various answers on the topic, while commentators continually attacked every iteration of his original statement. At a May 13 event in Nevada, Bush further said "...if we're going to get into hypotheticals I think it does a disservice for a lot of people that sacrificed a lot." Bush was later attacked by candidates and potential candidates alike, with Kentucky Senator Rand Paul saying "To say that nothing would happen differently means we're going to get George Bush 3;" in an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie took the opportunity to say "We need a foward -looking foreign policy that talks about how to reassert American authority and influence around the world," he told Tapper. "...but I want to directly answer your question, because that's what I do," and Texas Senator Ted Cruz also clarified he wouldn't have invaded Iraq.

By the week's end, May 15, Bush backed off his original statements, saying definitively “knowing what we know now I would not have engaged—I would not have gone into Iraq.”

Announcement pending

On June 4, the same day of Governor Rick Perry's formal campaign announcement, an anonymous Bush staffer leaked that Bush would formally announce his candidacy on June 15. His announcement is scheduled to take place at an event beginning at 13:00 EDT at Miami Dade College's Kendall Campus, in Miami, Florida. Bush will make a trip to Germany, Poland, and Estonia before returning to begin his campaign.

Bush is scheduled to embark on a tour following his June 15 announcement, with stops in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.

References

1. http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/jeb-bush-to-announce-2016-intentions-on-june-15-118626.html
2. https://www.facebook.com/notes/jeb-bush/a-note-from-jeb-bush/619074134888300
3. http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jan/01/jeb-bush-sheds-corporate-commitments-2016-presidential-run
4. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeb-bush-eyes-new-role-for-his-super-pac-during-2016-campaign/
5. O’Connor, Patrick; Reinhard, Beth (2015-01-10T00:09:00.000Z). "Romney Tells Donors He Is Considering 2016 White House Bid". Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved 2015-06-05. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
6. Parker, Ashley; Martin, Jonathan (2015-01-30). "Support Waning, Romney Decides Against 2016 Bid". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2015-06-05.
7. "Why Romney bowed out - CNNPolitics.com". CNN. Retrieved 2015-06-05.
8. Mendoza, Jessica (2015-02-10T17:43:00-05:00). "Jeb Bush releases eight years' worth of emails: Is that legal?". Christian Science Monitor. ISSN 0882-7729. Retrieved 2015-06-05. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
9. "Jeb Bush exploits major loophole in campaign finance rule". Retrieved 2015-06-05.
10. "Here's how George W. Bush handled the big question that's dogging Jeb". Retrieved 2015-06-05.
11. "Jeb Bush: I learned about 'protecting the homeland' from the way George W. Bush 'kept us safe'". www.rawstory.com. Retrieved 2015-06-05.
12. "Jeb Bush Says Brother George is His Top Foreign Policy Adviser". Retrieved 2015-06-05.
13. "Jeb Bush promises "no coordination" with super PAC if he runs". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved 2015-06-05.
14. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtYNHEMG628, retrieved 2015-06-05 {{citation}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
15. Newell, Jim. "Jeb's bizarre "hard of hearing" defense: Did he really "mishear" Megyn Kelly's Iraq question?". Retrieved 2015-06-05.
16. "Jeb Bush tries to move past Iraq questions - CNNPolitics.com". CNN. Retrieved 2015-06-05.
17. "Jeb Bush Reverses Himself: 'I Would Not Have Gone Into Iraq'". Retrieved 2015-06-05.
18. "Coming Soon: Jeb Announcement". jebannouncement.com. Retrieved 2015-06-05.
19. "Jeb Bush promises "no coordination" with super PAC if he runs". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved 2015-06-05.
20. "Jeb Bush stopping in Nevada as part of 'Announcement Tour'". Retrieved 2015-06-05.

• United States presidential Republican Party campaigns, 2016