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Robert R. Prechter, Jr. is an American technical analyst or "market timer" and author, known widely for his financial forecasts using the Elliott wave principle. He is particularly well known for his prediction in early 1987 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would soon reach 3600. In 1993, when the DJIA finally did reach 3600, The Wall Street Journal noted:

Six years after Robert Prechter made his prediction that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would reach 3600, the one-time stock superstar has been vindicated by the Dow's 3604.86 closing on Aug 18, 1993. Although Prechter lost many of his followers after the prediction--and became the punchline of in-crowd jokes--he feels the personal aspect of the vindication is important, but he knows the public will not forgive him for timing on the prediction.

Prechter has authored or edited 14 books, including Conquer the Crash, a New York Times bestseller. He has also published monthly financial commentary in the Elliott Wave Theorist since 1979. In recent years Prechter has supported the study of socionomics, a theory about the dynamics of human social behavior.

Career

Prechter attended Yale University and graduated with a degree in psychology in 1971. His career as an analyst began when he joined Merrill Lynch as a market technician in 1975, where he learned much about the trade from Merrill's Chief Market Strategist Robert Farrell (June 1982). There Prechter also learned of the Wave Principle and was deeply intrigued:

So I tracked down R.N. Elliott's original books. They weren't even in the Library of Congress. But I finally dug around in the New York Public Library and found a catalog card listing a copy of them on microfilm and had photocopies made. I was amazed to find that there was a wealth of information that had been lost to Wall Street.

Prechter has also said, "after I decided to make markets a career, I realized that mass psychology is what they're all about."

Prominence

In 1979 Prechter left Merrill Lynch and published the first subscription issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist. The 1970s had been very bullish years in the gold market but mostly bearish for stocks, yet his Elliott wave analysis called for a long-term reversal lower in gold (February 1980) and a long-term "super bull market underway" in stocks (October 1982). Because these forecasts proved mostly correct -- especially for the stock indexes -- Prechter's following grew. His visibility increased further after he won the U.S. Trading Championship in 1984, with a then-record 444% return in a monitored options trading account. He was profiled in many financial and business publications, and named "Guru of the Decade" by the Financial News Network (now CNBC).

In recent years he has been forecasting a large-scale bear market. Perhaps his most unusual prediction, made in the late 1980's, was about himself, predicting that he would call a stock market top too early.

Among the books he has authored, coauthored, or edited are:

• Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior
• The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics
• Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression

Notes

1. "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow--But 6 years late" by Power, William, The Wall Street Journal,Aug 19, 1993
2. New York Times, Book Review, Best Sellers List, 11 August 2002.
3. ^ Elliott Wave Theorist. (Elliott Wave International, P.O. Box 1618 Gainesville Georgia 30503).
4. The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics (New Classics Library, 1999, P.O. Box 1618 Gainesville Georgia 30503).
5. ^ Robert R. Prechter, Jr. Prechter's Perspective (New Classics Library, 1996/2004, P.O. Box 1618 Gainesville Georgia 30503) p. 6, 1.
6. Futures magazine, March 1985 p. 66.
7. Atlanta Journal Constitution, July 15, 1990.

References

Elliott Wave Theorist (Robert R. Prechter, Jr., 1979-2006). Elliott Wave International, P.O. Box 1618 Gainesville Georgia 30503

• American writers
• Living people