Main article: 2004 United States presidential election
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The 2004 United States presidential election in California took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 55 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
California was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 9.95% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Republican presidential candidates have not taken California's electoral votes since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in his victory over Michael Dukakis in 1988. Bush would become the first Republican to win two terms in the White House without winning California at least once. With its 55 electoral votes, California was John Kerry's biggest electoral prize in 2004.
This is the first election since 1880 in which the Republican nominee won the nationwide popular vote without California and the first time since 1976 that it voted for the popular vote loser. This is also the first time since its statehood that a presidential candidate was elected to two terms to the presidency without winning the state either time. This was the last time a Republican presidential candidate received more than 40% of the vote in California, where a Republican won more than a third of the vote in Los Angeles County, where the gap between the Republican and Democratic candidates was less than two million votes, and where the margin of victory was in single digits.
Primaries
Campaign
Predictions
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Solid D |
| Associated Press | Solid D |
| CNN | Likely D |
| Cook Political Report | Solid D |
| Newsweek | Solid D |
| New York Times | Solid D |
| Rasmussen Reports | Likely D |
| Research 2000 | Solid D |
| Washington Post | Likely D |
| Washington Times | Solid D |
| Zogby International | Likely D |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely D |
Polling
Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2004: CaliforniaKerry led every single pre-election poll. The final 3 polls average Kerry leading at 52% to Bush at 43% to Nader at 2%.
Fundraising
Bush raised $20,296,645, the second most money raised state for him. It accounted for 10.7% of all the money he raised in 2004. Kerry raised $36,378,063, which is by far the most money raised for Kerry by any state. The money raised in California accounted for almost 20% of all money he raised in 2004.
Advertising and visits
Neither Kerry nor Bush advertised or campaigned in the state during the fall election.
Analysis
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California was once a Republican-leaning swing state, supporting Republican candidates in every election from 1952 through 1988, except in 1964. However, since the 1990s, California has become a reliably Democratic state with a highly diverse ethnic population (mostly Latino) and liberal bastions such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County. The last time a Republican candidate won the state was in 1988 by George H. W. Bush.
In 2004, the state did swing slightly Republican by a 1.9% margin from 2000 due to strong swings in heavily populated San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, Kern, Fresno, Stanislaus, and San Joaquin counties, in all of which Bush increased his margin by substantially more than he did nationally, and all of which save San Diego, San Joaquin, and Ventura he won by double digits. Bush also won over a million votes in Los Angeles County, the most populous county in the United States; and he held Kerry to a 0.2% margin in Sacramento County (which Gore had won by 4.0%). Bush also benefited from strong support by Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state's Republican governor. These factors likely contributed to California being closer than expected in 2004.
Bush remains the last Republican candidate to win San Diego, San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties in a presidential election. Fresno, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties would not vote Republican again until 2024. He is also the last candidate of any party to win Butte county by a majority. This is the last time the Democratic Party failed to obtain at least 60% of the vote until 2024.
Results
| 2004 United States presidential election in California | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | John Forbes Kerry and John Reid Edwards | 6,745,485 | 54.31% | 55 | |
| Republican | George Walker Bush and Richard Bruce Cheney (incumbent) | 5,509,826 | 44.36% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 50,165 | 0.40% | 0 | |
| Green | David Cobb | 40,771 | 0.33% | 0 | |
| Peace and Freedom | Leonard Peltier | 27,607 | 0.22% | 0 | |
| American Independent | Michael Peroutka | 26,645 | 0.21% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader (write-in) | 20,714 | 0.17% | 0 | |
| Independent | John Joseph Kennedy (write-in) | 82 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Independent | John Parker (write-in) | 49 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Independent | James Alexander-Pace (write-in) | 8 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Independent | Anthony Jabin (write-in) | 1 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Invalid or blank votes | 169,510 | ||||
| Totals | 12,421,353 | 100.00% | 55 | ||
| Voter turnout (Voting Age voters) | 74.7% | ||||
By county
| County | John Kerry Democratic |
George W. Bush Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alameda | 422,585 | 75.18% | 130,911 | 23.29% | 8,590 | 1.53% | 291,674 | 51.89% | 562,090 |
| Alpine | 373 | 53.21% | 311 | 44.37% | 17 | 2.43% | 62 | 8.84% | 701 |
| Amador | 6,541 | 36.56% | 11,107 | 62.08% | 243 | 1.36% | -4,566 | -25.52% | 17,891 |
| Butte | 42,448 | 44.14% | 51,662 | 53.73% | 2,047 | 2.13% | -9,214 | -9.59% | 96,157 |
| Calaveras | 8,286 | 37.09% | 13,601 | 60.87% | 456 | 2.04% | -5,315 | -23.78% | 22,343 |
| Colusa | 1,947 | 31.58% | 4,142 | 67.17% | 77 | 1.25% | -2,195 | -35.59% | 6,166 |
| Contra Costa | 257,254 | 62.28% | 150,608 | 36.46% | 5,166 | 1.25% | 106,646 | 25.82% | 413,028 |
| Del Norte | 3,892 | 41.31% | 5,356 | 56.85% | 173 | 1.84% | -1,464 | -15.54% | 9,421 |
| El Dorado | 32,242 | 37.33% | 52,878 | 61.23% | 1,244 | 1.44% | -20,636 | -23.90% | 86,364 |
| Fresno | 103,154 | 41.68% | 141,988 | 57.38% | 2,321 | 0.94% | -38,834 | -15.70% | 247,463 |
| Glenn | 2,995 | 31.68% | 6,308 | 66.72% | 151 | 1.60% | -3,313 | -35.04% | 9,454 |
| Humboldt | 37,988 | 57.66% | 25,714 | 39.03% | 2,184 | 3.31% | 12,274 | 18.63% | 65,886 |
| Imperial | 17,964 | 52.41% | 15,890 | 46.36% | 420 | 1.23% | 2,074 | 6.05% | 34,274 |
| Inyo | 3,350 | 38.88% | 5,091 | 59.09% | 175 | 2.03% | -1,741 | -20.21% | 8,616 |
| Kern | 68,603 | 32.49% | 140,417 | 66.49% | 2,154 | 1.02% | -71,814 | -34.00% | 211,174 |
| Kings | 10,833 | 33.74% | 21,003 | 65.41% | 274 | 0.85% | -10,170 | -31.67% | 32,110 |
| Lake | 13,141 | 53.16% | 11,093 | 44.88% | 485 | 1.96% | 2,048 | 8.28% | 24,719 |
| Lassen | 3,158 | 27.58% | 8,126 | 70.97% | 166 | 1.45% | -4,968 | -43.39% | 11,450 |
| Los Angeles | 1,907,736 | 63.10% | 1,076,225 | 35.60% | 39,319 | 1.30% | 831,511 | 27.50% | 3,023,280 |
| Madera | 13,481 | 34.70% | 24,871 | 64.02% | 498 | 1.28% | -11,390 | -29.32% | 38,850 |
| Marin | 99,070 | 73.21% | 34,378 | 25.40% | 1,877 | 1.39% | 64,692 | 47.81% | 135,325 |
| Mariposa | 3,251 | 37.55% | 5,215 | 60.23% | 192 | 2.22% | -1,964 | -22.68% | 8,658 |
| Mendocino | 24,385 | 63.45% | 12,955 | 33.71% | 1,089 | 2.83% | 11,430 | 29.74% | 38,429 |
| Merced | 24,491 | 42.26% | 32,773 | 56.54% | 696 | 1.20% | -8,282 | -14.28% | 57,960 |
| Modoc | 1,149 | 25.72% | 3,235 | 72.42% | 83 | 1.86% | -2,086 | -46.70% | 4,467 |
| Mono | 2,628 | 49.23% | 2,621 | 49.10% | 89 | 1.67% | 7 | 0.13% | 5,338 |
| Monterey | 75,241 | 60.36% | 47,838 | 38.38% | 1,574 | 1.26% | 27,403 | 21.98% | 124,653 |
| Napa | 33,666 | 59.48% | 22,059 | 38.97% | 874 | 1.54% | 11,607 | 20.51% | 56,599 |
| Nevada | 24,220 | 44.92% | 28,790 | 53.39% | 910 | 1.69% | -4,570 | -8.47% | 53,920 |
| Orange | 419,239 | 38.98% | 641,832 | 59.68% | 14,328 | 1.33% | -222,593 | -20.70% | 1,075,399 |
| Placer | 55,573 | 36.26% | 95,969 | 62.61% | 1,736 | 1.13% | -40,396 | -26.35% | 153,278 |
| Plumas | 4,129 | 36.90% | 6,905 | 61.71% | 156 | 1.39% | -2,776 | -24.81% | 11,190 |
| Riverside | 228,806 | 41.04% | 322,473 | 57.83% | 6,300 | 1.13% | -93,667 | -16.79% | 557,579 |
| Sacramento | 236,657 | 49.52% | 235,539 | 49.29% | 5,670 | 1.19% | 1,118 | 0.23% | 477,866 |
| San Benito | 9,851 | 52.61% | 8,698 | 46.45% | 176 | 0.94% | 1,153 | 6.16% | 18,725 |
| San Bernardino | 227,789 | 43.53% | 289,306 | 55.29% | 6,181 | 1.18% | -61,517 | -11.76% | 523,276 |
| San Diego | 526,437 | 46.33% | 596,033 | 52.45% | 13,881 | 1.22% | -69,596 | -6.12% | 1,136,351 |
| San Francisco | 296,772 | 83.02% | 54,355 | 15.21% | 6,338 | 1.77% | 242,417 | 67.81% | 357,465 |
| San Joaquin | 87,012 | 45.83% | 100,978 | 53.18% | 1,874 | 0.99% | -13,966 | -7.35% | 189,864 |
| San Luis Obispo | 58,742 | 45.52% | 67,995 | 52.69% | 2,313 | 1.79% | -9,253 | -7.17% | 129,050 |
| San Mateo | 197,922 | 69.48% | 83,315 | 29.25% | 3,620 | 1.27% | 114,607 | 40.23% | 284,857 |
| Santa Barbara | 90,314 | 53.17% | 76,806 | 45.22% | 2,741 | 1.61% | 13,508 | 7.95% | 169,861 |
| Santa Clara | 386,100 | 63.94% | 209,094 | 34.63% | 8,622 | 1.43% | 177,006 | 29.31% | 603,816 |
| Santa Cruz | 89,102 | 72.98% | 30,354 | 24.86% | 2,628 | 2.15% | 58,748 | 48.12% | 122,084 |
| Shasta | 24,339 | 31.31% | 52,249 | 67.22% | 1,143 | 1.47% | -27,910 | -35.91% | 77,731 |
| Sierra | 646 | 33.16% | 1,249 | 64.12% | 53 | 2.72% | -603 | -30.96% | 1,948 |
| Siskiyou | 7,880 | 37.71% | 12,673 | 60.64% | 346 | 1.66% | -4,793 | -22.93% | 20,899 |
| Solano | 85,096 | 57.17% | 62,301 | 41.86% | 1,440 | 0.97% | 22,795 | 15.31% | 148,837 |
| Sonoma | 148,261 | 67.18% | 68,204 | 30.90% | 4,225 | 1.91% | 80,057 | 36.28% | 220,690 |
| Stanislaus | 58,829 | 40.40% | 85,407 | 58.65% | 1,388 | 0.95% | -26,578 | -18.25% | 145,624 |
| Sutter | 9,602 | 31.85% | 20,254 | 67.19% | 289 | 0.96% | -10,652 | -35.34% | 30,145 |
| Tehama | 7,504 | 32.01% | 15,572 | 66.42% | 368 | 1.57% | -8,068 | -34.41% | 23,444 |
| Trinity | 2,782 | 42.71% | 3,560 | 54.66% | 171 | 2.63% | -778 | -11.95% | 6,513 |
| Tulare | 32,494 | 32.87% | 65,399 | 66.15% | 967 | 0.98% | -32,905 | -33.28% | 98,860 |
| Tuolumne | 10,104 | 38.51% | 15,745 | 60.02% | 386 | 1.47% | -5,641 | -21.51% | 26,235 |
| Ventura | 148,859 | 47.53% | 160,314 | 51.19% | 4,020 | 1.28% | -11,455 | -3.66% | 313,193 |
| Yolo | 42,885 | 59.34% | 28,005 | 38.75% | 1,379 | 1.91% | 14,880 | 20.59% | 72,269 |
| Yuba | 5,687 | 31.55% | 12,076 | 67.00% | 261 | 1.45% | -6,389 | -35.45% | 18,024 |
| Total | 6,745,485 | 54.30% | 5,509,826 | 44.36% | 166,548 | 1.34% | 1,235,659 | 9.94% | 12,421,859 |
Shift by county
Trend by countyLegend
- Democratic — +12.5−15%
- Democratic — +10−12.5%
- Democratic — +7.5−10%
- Democratic — +5−7.5%
- Democratic — +2.5−5%
- Democratic — +0−2.5%
- Republican — +0−2.5%
- Republican — +2.5−5%
- Republican — +5−7.5%
- Republican — +7.5−10%
County flipsLegend
-
Democratic
Hold Gain from RepublicanRepublican
Hold
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Alpine (largest municipality: Markleeville)
- Mono (largest municipality: Mammoth Lakes)
By congressional district
Kerry won 31 of 53 congressional districts. Bush won 22 congressional districts, including two districts held by Democrats.
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 38% | 60% | Mike Thompson |
| 2nd | 62% | 37% | Wally Herger |
| 3rd | 58% | 41% | Doug Ose |
| Dan Lungren | |||
| 4th | 61% | 37% | John Doolittle |
| 5th | 38% | 61% | Bob Matsui |
| 6th | 28% | 70% | Lynn Woolsey |
| 7th | 32% | 67% | George Miller |
| 8th | 14% | 85% | Nancy Pelosi |
| 9th | 13% | 86% | Barbara Lee |
| 10th | 40% | 59% | Ellen Tauscher |
| 11th | 54% | 45% | Richard Pombo |
| 12th | 27% | 72% | Tom Lantos |
| 13th | 28% | 71% | Pete Stark |
| 14th | 30% | 68% | Anna Eshoo |
| 15th | 36% | 63% | Mike Honda |
| 16th | 36% | 63% | Zoe Lofgren |
| 17th | 33% | 66% | Sam Farr |
| 18th | 50% | 49% | Dennis Cardoza |
| 19th | 61% | 38% | George Radanovich |
| 20th | 48% | 51% | Cal Dooley |
| Jim Costa | |||
| 21st | 65% | 34% | Devin Nunes |
| 22nd | 68% | 31% | Bill Thomas |
| 23rd | 40% | 58% | Lois Capps |
| 24th | 56% | 43% | Elton Gallegly |
| 25th | 59% | 40% | Howard McKeon |
| 26th | 55% | 44% | David Dreier |
| 27th | 39% | 59% | Brad Sherman |
| 28th | 28% | 71% | Howard Berman |
| 29th | 37% | 61% | Adam Schiff |
| 30th | 33% | 66% | Henry Waxman |
| 31st | 22% | 77% | Xavier Becerra |
| 32nd | 37% | 62% | Hilda Solis |
| 33rd | 16% | 83% | Diane Watson |
| 34th | 30% | 69% | Lucille Roybal-Allard |
| 35th | 20% | 79% | Maxine Waters |
| 36th | 40% | 59% | Jane Harman |
| 37th | 25% | 74% | Juanita Millender-McDonald |
| 38th | 34% | 65% | Grace Napolitano |
| 39th | 40% | 59% | Linda Sánchez |
| 40th | 60% | 39% | Ed Royce |
| 41st | 62% | 37% | Jerry Lewis |
| 42nd | 62% | 37% | Gary Miller |
| 43rd | 41% | 58% | Joe Baca |
| 44th | 59% | 40% | Ken Calvert |
| 45th | 56% | 43% | Mary Bono Mack |
| 46th | 57% | 42% | Dana Rohrabacher |
| 47th | 50% | 49% | Loretta Sanchez |
| 48th | 58% | 40% | Christopher Cox |
| John Campbell | |||
| 49th | 63% | 36% | Darrell Issa |
| 50th | 55% | 44% | Brian Bilbray |
| 51st | 46% | 53% | Bob Filner |
| 52nd | 61% | 38% | Duncan Hunter |
| 53rd | 38% | 61% | Susan Davis |
Electors
Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electorsTechnically the voters of California cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. California is allocated 55 electors because it has 53 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 53 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 53 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from California. All were pledged to and voted for John Kerry and John Edwards.
- Robert H. Manley
- Barbara Schraeger
- Paul Johnson
- Gary Simmons
- Paul Batterson
- Diana Madoshi
- Kyriakos Tsakopoulos
- Donald Linker
- Paula Sandusky
- Adam Woo
- Chloe Drew
- Karl Sliferv
- Gary Prost
- Joseph Cotchett
- John Smith
- George Marcus
- Mark Hsu
- Adele Bihn
- Darrell Darling
- Amarjit Dhaliwal
- Rocco Davis
- Kenneth Costa
- Barbara Pyle
- David Johnson
- Andrew M. Siegel
- Michael Carpenter
- Lynda Von Husen
- Randy Monroe
- Lane M. Sherman
- Moreen Blum
- Yolanda Dyer
- Paul I. Goldenberg
- Lenore Wax
- Mitch O'Farrell
- Franklin A. Acevedo
- Gwen Moore
- Pedro Carillo
- Karen Walters
- Ted Lieu
- Valerie McDonald
- Marvin
- Douglas E. Hitchcock
- Barbara Kerr
- Salvador Sanchez
- Joe Baca Jr.
- Grant Gruber
- James T. Ewing
- Louise Giacoppe
- James G. Bohm
- Mark Lam
- Chuck Lower
- Susan Koehler
- Mary Salas
- Andrew Benjamin
- Margaret Lawrence
References
- "HISTORICAL VOTER REGISTRATION AND PARTICIPATION IN STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTIONS 1910-2018" (PDF). Retrieved June 30, 2021.
- "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 14, 2022.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
- George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President
- John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President
- "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
- "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
- Loughlin, Sean (September 1, 2004). "Schwarzenegger's star power dazzles delegates". CNN.
- "2004 Presidential General Election Results - California". Dave Leip's election atlas.
- "2024 Presidential General Election Results - California". Dave Leip's election atlas.
- "President" (PDF). California Secretary of State. February 22, 2005. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 21, 2013. Retrieved July 9, 2008.
- "Report of Registration as of October 18, 2004" (PDF). California Secretary of State. January 7, 2005. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 10, 2008. Retrieved January 16, 2013.
- Swing State Project: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008
- U. S. Electoral College 2004 Election - Main Page
| State and district results of the 2004 United States presidential election | ||
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| 2004 California elections | |
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