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2007 VK184

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2007 VK184
The 2014 close approach of 2007 VK184
Discovery
Discovered byCatalina Sky Survey (703)
Discovery date12 November 2007
Designations
Minor planet category
Orbital characteristics
Epoch 2022-Aug-09 (JD 2459800.5)
Uncertainty parameter 1
Observation arc6.37 years
Aphelion2.7098 AU
Perihelion0.74286 AU
Semi-major axis1.7263 AU
Eccentricity0.56969
Orbital period (sidereal)828.5 d (2.27 yr)
Average orbital speed22.8 km/s
Mean anomaly201.99°
Inclination1.2208°
Longitude of ascending node253.57°
Argument of perihelion73.649°
Earth MOID0.00044 AU (66,000 km)
Venus MOID0.055 AU (8,200,000 km)
Mars MOID0.033 AU (4,900,000 km)
Physical characteristics
Mean diameter~130 meters (430 ft)
Mass3.3×10 kg (assumed)
Absolute magnitude (H)22.0

2007 VK184 is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object of the Apollo group, and estimated to be approximately 130 meters (430 ft) in diameter. It was listed on the Sentry Risk Table with a Torino Scale rating of 1 for a potential impactor in June 2048. It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 28 March 2014.

2023

The asteroid will come to opposition on 24 April 2023 when it will have a solar elongation of 177 degrees and an apparent magnitude of 22. Then on 15 July 2023 the asteroid will harmlessly pass 0.2275 AU (34.03 million km) from Earth.

Description

2007 VK184 was discovered on 12 November 2007 by the Catalina Sky Survey. It was recovered on 26 March 2014 by Mauna Kea, and removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 28 March 2014. By 4 January 2008, with an observation arc of 52 days, there was a 1 in 2700 chance of an impact with Earth on 3 June 2048. The Sentry Risk Table, using an observation arc of 60 days, showed the asteroid had a 1 in 1820 chance (0.055%) of impacting Earth on 3 June 2048. Since the March 2014 recovery, it is known that the asteroid will pass 0.013 AU (1,900,000 km; 1,200,000 mi) from Earth on 2 June 2048.

2014 passage

Before the 2014 close approach, the asteroid had a modest observation arc of 60 days, and the imprecise trajectory of this asteroid was complicated by close approaches to Earth, Venus and Mars. On 23 May 2014, the asteroid passed 0.17 AU (25,000,000 km; 16,000,000 mi) from Earth and reached an apparent magnitude of ~20.8. As expected the close approach allowed astronomers to recover the asteroid on 26 March 2014 and refine the odds of a future collision. As the asteroid gets closer to Earth, the positional uncertainty becomes larger. By recovering the asteroid well before closest approach you can avoid searching a larger region of the sky. Most asteroids rated 1 on the Torino Scale are later downgraded to 0 after more observations come in.

Risk assessments were calculated based on a diameter of 130 meters. It was estimated that, if it were ever to impact Earth, it would enter the atmosphere at a speed of 19.2 km/s and would have a kinetic energy equivalent to 150 megatons of TNT. Assuming the target surface is sedimentary rock, the asteroid would impact the ground with the equivalent of 40 megatons of TNT and create a 2.1 kilometers (1.3 mi) impact crater. Asteroids of approximately 130 meters in diameter are expected to impact Earth once every 11000 years or so.

2048

On 26–27 March 2014, additional observations were made which ruled out the chance of an impact in 2048. On 2 June 2048 the asteroid will pass 5 lunar distances from Earth with a 3-sigma uncertainty region of ±20000 km.

2118

By the Earth approach of June 2118 the known approaches become more divergent.

2118 Earth approach
Date Minimum
possible
approach 		Maximum
possible
approach
2118-Jun-06 ± 2 days 0.00089 AU (133 thousand km) 0.041 AU (6.1 million km)

See also

  • 99942 Apophis, a NEO that, for a few days, was thought to have a slight probability of striking the Earth in 2029. But the likelihood that would happen was quickly determined to be zero.

Notes

  1. v = 42.1219 √1/r − 0.5/a, where r is the distance from the Sun, and a is the major semi-axis. Average velocity is at r=a=1.7 AU.

References

  1. ^ "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2007 VK184)" (last observation: 2014-03-27; arc: 6.37 years). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 26 October 2016. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  2. ^ "MPEC 2007-V94 : 2007 VK184". IAU Minor Planet Center. 13 November 2007. Retrieved 27 October 2010.
  3. ^ "2007 VK184 Orbit". IAU Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  4. ^ "2007 VK184 Earth Impact Risk Summary". Wayback Machine:NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 17 October 2013. Archived from the original on 17 October 2013. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  5. ^ "Date/Time Removed". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 3 April 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  6. "Horizons Batch for 24 Apr 2023 Opposition". JPL Horizons. Retrieved 29 July 2022.
  7. "MPEC 2014-F50 : 2007 VK184". IAU Minor Planet Center. 28 March 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
  8. "WayBack Machine archive from 10 Jan 2008". Wayback Machine. 10 January 2008. Archived from the original on 10 January 2008. Retrieved 20 February 2013.
  9. "2012 VK184 Ephemerides for 23 May 2014". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Retrieved 21 February 2013.
  10. ^ "Asteroid 2007 VK184 Eliminated as Impact Risk to Earth". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 2 April 2014. Archived from the original on 8 November 2015. Retrieved 3 April 2014.
  11. ^ Robert Marcus; H. Jay Melosh & Gareth Collins (2010). "Earth Impact Effects Program". Imperial College London / Purdue University. Retrieved 20 February 2013. (solution using 130 meters, 2600 kg/m, 19.2 km/s, 45 degrees, target: sedimentary rock)
  12. "Horizons Batch for 2048-Jun-02". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 29 July 2022. Retrieved 29 July 2022. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2021-Apr-15 generates RNG_3sigma = 18862 km for 2048-Jun-02.)
  13. "Close approaches for 2007VK184 from 1950 to 2122". European Space Agency. Archived from the original on 30 July 2022. Retrieved 30 July 2022.

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