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2021 Scottish Parliament election

← 2016 6 May 2021 (2021-05-06) Next →
← outgoing memberselected members →
All 129 seats to the Scottish Parliament 65 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	Constituency – 63.5% 7.7pp Regional – 63.5% 7.7pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Nicola Sturgeon Douglas Ross Anas Sarwar Party SNP Conservative Labour Leader since 14 November 2014 5 August 2020 27 February 2021 Leader's seat Glasgow Southside Highlands and Islands Glasgow Last election 63 seats 31 seats 24 seats Seats before 61 30 23 Seats won 64 31 22 Seat change 3 1 1 Constituency vote 1,291,204 592,526 584,392 % and swing 47.7% 1.2% 21.9% 0.1% 21.6% 1.0% Regional vote 1,094,374 637,131 485,819 % and swing 40.3% 1.4% 23.5% 0.6% 17.9% 1.2%   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Lorna Slater / Patrick Harvie Willie Rennie Party Scottish Green Liberal Democrats Leader since 1 August 2019 (Slater) / 22 November 2008 (Harvie) 17 May 2011 Leader's seat Lothian (Slater) / Glasgow (Harvie) North East Fife Last election 6 seats 5 seats Seats before 5 5 Seats won 8 4 Seat change 3 1 Constituency vote 34,990 187,816 % and swing 1.3% 0.7% 6.9% 0.9% Regional vote 220,324 137,151 % and swing 8.1% 1.5% 5.1% 0.1%
The map shows the election results in single-member constituencies. The additional member MSPs in the 8 regions are shown around the map.
First Minister before election Nicola Sturgeon SNP First Minister after election Nicola Sturgeon SNP

The 2021 Scottish Parliament election took place on 6 May 2021 under the provisions of the Scotland Act 1998. All 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament were elected in the sixth election since the parliament was re-established in 1999. The election was held alongside the Senedd election in Wales, English local elections, London Assembly and mayoral election and the Hartlepool by-election.

The election campaign started on 25 March 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland. Parliament was officially dissolved on 5 May, the day before the election. The main parties fielding candidates were: the Scottish National Party (SNP), led by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon; the Scottish Conservatives, led by Douglas Ross; Scottish Labour, led by Anas Sarwar; the Scottish Liberal Democrats, led by Willie Rennie, and the Scottish Greens, jointly led Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater. Of those five parties, three had changed their leader since the 2016 election.

Newer parties set up since the 2016 election included: Reform UK Scotland, led by Michelle Ballantyne; the Alba Party, led by former First Minister and SNP leader Alex Salmond; and All for Unity, led by George Galloway. These parties only competed for seats on the regional lists. They all failed to win any seats.

The election resulted in the SNP winning a fourth consecutive term in government. They won 64 seats, a net increase of one. The SNP gained Edinburgh Central, Ayr, and East Lothian, as well as winning the largest share of the popular vote and the largest number of constituency seats in any Scottish Parliament election (62). The Greens won eight seats, their best result to date at a Scottish Parliament election, while the Conservatives retained second place with 31 seats. Labour had its worst-ever result with 22 seats, and the lowest share of the vote in both constituency and list votes for either Westminster or Holyrood since 1910. The Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) also had their worst showing at a Holyrood election to date, winning only four seats.

The SNP and the Greens, both of which support Scottish independence, won 72 of the 129 seats in the parliament. Unionist parties (that is, those against independence) achieved a small majority of votes in constituency contests, whilst pro-independence parties achieved a small majority in the regional lists. The turnout was 63.5%, which is the highest ever at a Scottish Parliament election. Following the election, the third Sturgeon government was formed. It initially consisted of just the SNP, but later included Slater and Harvie of the Scottish Greens as junior ministers after the two parties negotiated a power-sharing agreement.

Background

Electoral events

2016 Scottish Parliament election

At the 2016 election, the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) lost its parliamentary majority but was able to continue governing under Nicola Sturgeon as a minority administration. At the same election, the Conservatives overtook Labour to place second, whilst the Greens overtook the Liberal Democrats to place fourth. No representatives of minor parties were elected to the Parliament.

Other elections

Four further elections affecting Scotland took place between the 2016 and 2021 Scottish Parliament elections:

• May 2017: Scottish local government elections. The SNP retained its position as the largest party in terms of votes and councillors. The Conservatives displaced Labour as the second largest party, while the Liberal Democrats suffered a net loss of councillors despite increasing their share of the vote.

• June 2017: United Kingdom general election. The SNP lost 21 of its MPs, winning 35 seats. The Conservatives won 13 seats, with their highest vote share in any election in Scotland since 1979. Labour won seven seats, while the Liberal Democrats won four.

• May 2019: European Parliament election. This was dominated by the impending Brexit-deadline. The SNP won three of the six seats in Scotland, with the Brexit Party, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats each winning one seat.

• December 2019: United Kingdom general election. The SNP increased its share of the vote, reclaiming thirteen of the seats they lost in 2017. The Conservatives won six Scottish seats with a net lost of seven. The Liberal Democrats won four seats with no net losses, but their leader, Jo Swinson, lost her own seat to the SNP. Labour was reduced to a single Scottish seat, a net loss of six.

Leadership changes

Three parties underwent leadership changes during the parliamentary term leading up to the election. In August 2017, Kezia Dugdale resigned as leader of Scottish Labour and was replaced by Richard Leonard. In January 2021, less than four months before the election, Leonard resigned. Anas Sarwar won the subsequent leadership election.

In August 2019, Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie became co-leaders of the Scottish Greens.

Also in August 2019, Ruth Davidson resigned as leader of the Scottish Conservatives and was succeeded by Jackson Carlaw. Carlaw resigned as leader in July 2020, with Douglas Ross winning the subsequent leadership election unopposed.

Expansion of the electorate

This is the first election after the passage of the Scottish Elections (Franchise and Representation) Act, which extended the franchise to those serving prison sentences of 12 months or less. In 2005, the United Kingdom was found in breach of Protocol 1, Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights in regards to prisoner voting rights in the European Court of Human Rights as a result of Hirst v United Kingdom (No 2); the Act brings Scotland in line with the court ruling.

This act also allows all foreign nationals resident in Scotland to vote and all those with indefinite leave to remain or equivalent status, including pre–settled status in the United Kingdom, to stand as candidates. A BBC News report in April 2021 said that there were around 55,000 foreign nationals who had been given the right to vote as a result of these changes, including 20,000 refugees.

Date

Under the Scotland Act 1998, an ordinary general election to the Scottish Parliament would normally have been held on the first Thursday in May four years after the 2016 election, i.e. in May 2020. This would have clashed with the proposed date of a UK general election, although this became a moot point when a snap UK general election was held in June 2017 (a further UK general election was held in December 2019). In November 2015, the Scottish Government published a Scottish Elections (Dates) Bill, which proposed to extend the term of the Parliament to five years. That Bill was passed by the Scottish Parliament on 25 February 2016 and received Royal Assent on 30 March 2016, setting the new date for the election as 6 May 2021.

The Scottish Elections (Dates) Act did not affect the legal possibilities for the Parliament to be dissolved earlier, those being;

• That the date of the poll may be varied by up to one month either way by the monarch, on the proposal of the Presiding Officer.
• If Parliament itself resolves that it should be dissolved, with at least two-thirds of the Members (i.e. 86 Members) voting in favour, the Presiding Officer proposes a date for an extraordinary general election and the Parliament is dissolved by the monarch by royal proclamation.
• If Parliament fails to nominate one of its members to be First Minister within 28 days, irrespective of whether at the beginning or in the middle of a parliamentary term. Therefore, if the First Minister resigned, Parliament would then have 28 days to elect a successor and if no new First Minister was elected then the Presiding Officer would ask for Parliament to be dissolved. This process could also be triggered if the First Minister lost a vote of confidence by a simple majority, as they must then resign.

Nevertheless, no extraordinary general elections have been held to date. Any extraordinary general election would be in addition to the ordinary general elections, unless held less than six months before the due date of an ordinary general election, in which case it would supplant it. This would not affect the year in which the subsequent ordinary general election would be held.

On 16 November 2020, the Scottish General Election (Coronavirus) Bill was introduced. This draft legislation stated that while the next election was intended to be held on 6 May 2021, the Presiding Officer would gain the power to postpone the election by up to six months if the spread of COVID-19 made that date impractical. The bill also proposed to change the date of dissolution to the day before the election, meaning that the Parliament could be recalled during the election period. The bill was enacted and received Royal Assent on 29 January 2021. Parliament was in fact recalled on 12 April, to allow MSPs to mark the death of Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh.

Retiring MSPs

James Dornan announced in February 2020 his intention to retire at the next Holyrood election, but reversed this decision some months later.

Parties

The SNP, Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats fielded candidates in all 73 constituencies and all eight of the regional ballots. Five other parties contested both all eight regions and at least one constituency: the Scottish Greens (12 constituencies) the Scottish Libertarian Party (9), the Scottish Family Party (7), UKIP (5) and the Freedom Alliance (4). Four parties – Abolish the Scottish Parliament Party, Alba Party, All for Unity, and Reform UK – stood in all eight electoral regions, but did not contest any constituencies.

Six other parties contested some of the regions and at least one constituency: TUSC (3 regions and 3 constituencies), Restore Scotland (2 regions, 4 constituencies), Scotia Future (2 of each), the Communist Party of Britain (2 regions and 1 constituency), the Reclaim Party (1 of each) and the Vanguard Party (also 1 of each). Five other parties – Independent Green Voice (5 regions), Renew (5), the Social Democratic Party (2), Women's Equality (2) and Animal Welfare (1) – contested some of the regions, but not any constituencies.

The Scottish Socialist Party, which participated in the last election as part of the electoral alliance RISE – Scotland's Left Alliance, opted not to participate in this election, for the first time since its inception.

List of parties contesting all regional ballots

This list is incomplete; you can help by adding missing items. (April 2021)

Election system, seats and regions

The total number of Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) elected to the Parliament is 129.

The Scottish Parliament uses an additional member system (AMS), designed to produce approximate proportional representation for each region. There are 8 regions, each sub-divided into smaller constituencies. There is a total of 73 constituencies. Each constituency elects one MSP by the plurality (first past the post) system of election. Each region elects 7 additional MSPs using an additional member system. A modified D'Hondt method using the constituency results is used to elect these additional MSPs.

The boundaries of the 73 constituencies last changed as of the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, as did the configuration of the electoral regions used to elect "list" members of the Scottish Parliament. These revisions were the outcome of the First Periodical Review of the Scottish Parliament's constituencies and regions conducted by the Boundary Commission for Scotland; the Review was announced on 3 July 2007 and the Commission published its final report on 26 May 2010.

The Scottish Parliament constituencies have not been coterminous with Scottish Westminster constituencies since the 2005 general election, when the 72 former UK Parliament constituencies were replaced with a new set of 59, generally larger, constituencies (see Scottish Parliament (Constituencies) Act 2004). The size difference between Westminster and Holyrood boundaries was due to diverge further upon the implementation of the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which has not been voted upon by Parliament. The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies for a UK total of 650 MPs commenced in England in 2021 and will complete for the UK by 2023.

Campaign

The election campaign started on 25 March 2021. The Scottish Conservatives launched their campaign the same day, with a focus on promoting Scotland's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

On 26 March 2021, the Alba Party was publicly launched by former First Minister of Scotland and SNP leader, Alex Salmond. The party announced plans to stand list-only candidates. Two sitting SNP MPs later defected to the Alba party. The Action for Independence party, which had intended to pursue a similar list-only strategy, announced they would stand down their candidates in favour of Alba. Sturgeon said she would refuse to have any dealings with Salmond unless he apologises to the women who had accused him of harassment.

BBC Scotland announced that it would broadcast two debates between the main parties' leaders; the first was aired on 30 March 2021 and was moderated by the corporation's Scotland editor Sarah Smith. The debate included key questions from the audience on the COVID-19 recovery, climate change, and a second referendum on Scottish independence. The second BBC debate was held on 4 May 2021 and was moderated by BBC Scotland's political editor Glenn Campbell.

Commercial broadcaster STV held their leaders' debate on 13 April, moderated by their political editor Colin Mackay. NUS Scotland held a debate on specifically on student issues which was moderated by NUS Scotland president, Matt Crilly on 20 April which featured the three main party leaders.

On 1 April, Planet Radio announced that their Clyde 2 station would be hosting a Leaders Phone-In with the main parties' leaders every Sunday before the election. Douglas Ross was the first to be interviewed on 4 April, with Willie Rennie following on 18 April. Whilst Nicola Sturgeon was set to be interviewed on 11 April, campaigning was delayed following the death of Prince Philip and her phone-in was instead held on 22 April. Patrick Harvie followed on 25 April; and Anas Sarwar had the final phone-in on 2 May.

Following Prince Philip's death on 9 April, the SNP, Conservatives, Labour, Greens and Liberal Democrats said they would suspend election campaigning until further notice. After discussion between the parties, they agreed to resume campaigning after a special parliamentary session on 12 April to make tributes and to pause activities again on the day of the funeral (17 April).

Election debates

Opinion polling

Graph of opinion poll results prior to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. Trendlines are 30-day moving averages.

Key

  SNP – Scottish National Party
  Conservative – Scottish Conservatives
  Labour – Scottish Labour
  Lib Dem – Scottish Liberal Democrats
  Green – Scottish Greens
  UKIP – UK Independence Party
  Reform – Reform UK
  SSP – Scottish Socialist Party
  Alba – Alba Party
  AFU – All for Unity

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 5% from the 2016 result to change hands. The most marginal opportunity for the Greens was in Glasgow Kelvin, which they needed a 7.1% swing to gain. The Liberal Democrats' best bet was Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, which required a 6.1% swing. The SNP ended up holding both of these constituencies.

SNP targets

Conservative targets

Labour targets

Results

Regional vote plurality in each constituency SNP regional vote Conservative regional vote Labour regional vote Green regional vote Liberal Democrat regional vote

Overall

Votes summary

Central Scotland

2021 Scottish Parliament election: Central Scotland regional list

Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−%
	SNP		0		148,399	45.3	2.4
	Labour	Richard Leonard Monica Lennon Mark Griffin	3	1	77,623	23.7	1.1
	Conservative	Stephen Kerr Graham Simpson Meghan Gallacher	3		59,896	18.3	2.2
	Scottish Green	Gillian Mackay	1	1	19,512	6.0	1.3

Glasgow

2021 Scottish Parliament election: Glasgow regional list

Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−%
	SNP		0		133,917	43.9	0.9
	Labour	Pauline McNeill Anas Sarwar Paul Sweeney Pam Duncan-Glancy	4		74,088	24.3	0.5
	Conservative	Annie Wells Sandesh Gulhane	2		37,027	12.1	0.2
	Scottish Green	Patrick Harvie	1		36,114	11.8	2.4

Highlands and Islands

2021 Scottish Parliament election: Highlands and Islands regional list

Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−%
	SNP	Emma Roddick	1		96,433	40.4	0.7
	Conservative	Douglas Ross Donald Cameron Edward Mountain Jamie Halcro Johnston	4	1	60,779	25.4	3.6
	Liberal Democrats		0		26,771	11.2	2.1
	Labour	Rhoda Grant	1	1	22,713	9.5	1.7
	Scottish Green	Ariane Burgess	1		17,729	7.4	0.2

Lothian

2021 Scottish Parliament election: Lothian regional list

Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−%
	SNP		0		141,478	35.9	0.3
	Conservative	Miles Briggs Sue Webber Jeremy Balfour	3		78,595	19.9	3.0
	Labour	Sarah Boyack Foysol Choudhury	2		76,689	19.4	1.4
	Scottish Green	Alison Johnstone Lorna Slater	2		49,984	12.7	2.1
	Liberal Democrats		0		28,433	7.2	1.6

Mid Scotland and Fife

2021 Scottish Parliament election: Mid Scotland and Fife regional list

Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−%
	SNP		0		136,825	39.8	1.5
	Conservative	Murdo Fraser Liz Smith Dean Lockhart Alexander Stewart	4		85,909	25.0	0.2
	Labour	Claire Baker Alex Rowley	2		52,626	15.3	2.3
	Scottish Green	Mark Ruskell	1		28,654	8.3	2.2
	Liberal Democrats		0		25,489	7.4	0.4

North East Scotland

2021 Scottish Parliament election: North East Scotland regional list

Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−%
	SNP		0		147,910	40.9	3.8
	Conservative	Liam Kerr Douglas Lumsden Maurice Golden Tess White	4		110,555	30.6	2.6
	Labour	Michael Marra Mercedes Villalba	2		41,062	11.4	1.2
	Scottish Green	Maggie Chapman	1	1	22,735	6.3	1.4
	Liberal Democrats		0	1	18,051	5.0	1.0

South Scotland

2021 Scottish Parliament election: South Scotland regional list

Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−%
	SNP	Emma Harper	1	2	136,741	37.6	0.7
	Conservative	Craig Hoy Brian Whittle Sharon Dowey	3	1	121,730	33.5	1.4
	Labour	Colin Smyth Carol Mochan Martin Whitfield	3	1	57,236	15.7	2.1

West Scotland

2021 Scottish Parliament election: West Scotland regional list

Party		Elected candidates	Seats	+/−	Votes	%	+/−%
	SNP		0		152,671	40.4	1.8
	Labour	Neil Bibby Katy Clark Paul O'Kane	3		83,782	22.2	0.3
	Conservative	Russell Findlay Jamie Greene Pam Gosal	3		82,640	21.9	0.3
	Scottish Green	Ross Greer	1		26,632	7.1	1.8

Constituency seat changes compared to 2016

MSPs who lost their seats

Analysis

The SNP won 64 seats, falling one seat short of an overall majority. Some commentators put this down to unionists voting tactically for Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem candidates. According to psephologist John Curtice, "Denying the SNP an overall majority was, indeed, a collective effort – at least on the part of Unionist voters, who on the constituency ballot demonstrated a remarkable willingness to back whichever pro-Union party appeared to be best placed locally to defeat the SNP. These patterns had a decisive impact on the outcome." This was apparent in seats like Dumbarton, where incumbent Labour MSP Jackie Baillie saw her 0.3% majority increased to 3.9%, whilst both the Conservative and Lib Dem vote share decreased.

In The National, Emer O'Toole questioned whether social media adverts with "a lack of transparency over funding" may have cost the SNP key seats as well. The day before the election, The Guardian reported that anti-independence groups and campaigners had "spent tens of thousands of pounds in the past week", including on Facebook adverts, calling for tactical voting to prevent the SNP getting a majority. One of these groups was Scotland Matters, whose founder, Professor Hugh Pennington said, "Across the country as a whole, tactical voting is obviously one of the ways forward to basically harm the SNP, not to put too fine a point on it."

Additionally, the Greens claimed that they may have been deprived of two seats because of Independent Green Voice (IGV), a far-right party which has nothing to do with the Scottish Greens (who support Scottish independence). IGV received nearly 10,000 votes, including 2,210 in Glasgow (where the Greens were 1,000 short of gaining a seat) and 1,690 in South Scotland (where the Greens fell 100 short). This potentially prevented pro-independence parties from having a 19-seat majority instead of 15 seats.

The Scottish and Welsh Election Studies 2021, revealed on 13 June, found that around a third of Scottish voters who decided to vote differently in the run-up to the election did so to stop another party, and that 90% of those who did this did so in a bid to prevent the SNP winning the seat. Rob Johns, Professor in Politics at the University of Essex, said: "e found a lot more switching than we had expected. The polls had suggested that not much was changing and obviously the overall election result was almost eerily similar to 2016. That can mean that nobody has changed their mind or it can mean lots of people have changed their mind – but these have cancelled out as people have moved in opposing directions. We found there was quite a lot more of that than we had expected."

Voter demographics

Data from Savanta ComRes:

Campaign spending

Aftermath

Election of the First Minister
Ballot →		18 May 2021
Required majority →		50 out of 99 valid votes
	Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) • Scottish National Party (64)	64 / 129	Y
	Douglas Ross (Conservative) • Scottish Conservatives (31)	31 / 129	N
	Willie Rennie (Lib Dem) • Scottish Liberal Democrats (4)	4 / 129	N
	Abstentions • Scottish Labour (21) • Scottish Greens (7)	28 / 129
	Not voting • Scottish Labour (1) • Presiding Officer (1)	2 / 129
Sources

Nicola Sturgeon was nominated as First Minister by a vote of the parliament on 18 May 2021. Her cabinet was approved by the parliament two days later and thus the Third Sturgeon government, a minority government, was formed.

On 3 August 2021, it was reported that a co-operation agreement between the SNP and the Greens was "on the brink of being finalised" and could see Green MSPs take ministerial positions in government. On 19 August, the power-sharing agreement between the two parties was announced. Under the terms of the agreement, the Greens have two MSPs appointed as junior ministers in the government who are invited to attend cabinet meetings when their portfolios are being discussed. The Greens signed up to the bulk of the SNP's policies, but in areas of disagreement such as international relations and fee-paying schools the two parties are free to publicly disagree. The agreement states that the Greens support the government on votes of confidence and supply.

A deal that would see Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater made ministers was revealed on 26 August, subject to being voted upon by Green Party members. Two days later, members of both parties overwhelmingly voted in favour of the deal.

See also

Other elections in the UK which were held on the same day:

• 2021 London Assembly election
• 2021 London mayoral election
• 2021 Senedd election
• 2021 United Kingdom local elections

Footnotes

1. Elected on the Highlands and Islands regional list while concurrently sitting as a Westminster MP for Moray. Ruth Davidson, the Conservative leader at Holyrood before the leader, stood down at the election to take a seat in the House of Lords.
2. Originally elected as SNP
3. Originally elected as SNP
4. Co-opted to replace Richard Lochhead, who became a constituency MSP in the 2006 Moray by-election
5. Originally elected as Labour
6. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
7. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
8. Ross Greer, Scottish Green spokesperson on International Development and External Affairs, Education and Skills, and Culture and Media.
9. Carole Ford, Liberal Democrat spokesperson on Children and Young People.
10. Keith Brown, SNP Depute Leader.

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• Election 2021 Archived 23 April 2021 at the Wayback Machine (on the Scottish Parliament website)

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