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Electoral district of Northern Tablelands in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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3.7
6.9
A by-election was held in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Northern Tablelands on 22 June 2024, following the resignation of National Party MP Adam Marshall.
Background
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of sitting Nationals MP Adam Marshall, who had held the seat since the 2013.
Northern Tablelands is a very conservative seat and is a heartland for the National Party. While Labor traditionally does poorly in rural New South Wales (particularly rural northeastern New South Wales), Northern Tablelands is particularly bad territory for Labor. Northern Tablelands mostly overlaps with the federal seat of New England, which is also a very safe Nationals seat.
Labor usually runs dead in the seat, and therefore did not contest the by-election.
Marshall won 83.8% of the two-party-preferred vote at the 2023 state election, which is equal to a 33.8% margin on the Mackerras pendulum, emphasising that Northern Tablelands can be classified as a very safe seat, and the safest seat for any party in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly. Additionally, excluding by-election results or redistributions, Northern Tablelands is the seventh-safest seat for any party in any Australian state parliament, and the safest outside Western Australia.
Previous results
This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2023 New South Wales state election (Legislative Assembly) § Northern Tablelands.| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | Adam Marshall | 35,575 | 71.6 | −1.8 | |
| Labor | Yvonne Langenberg | 5,045 | 10.2 | −0.8 | |
| Greens | Elizabeth O'Hara | 2,369 | 4.8 | −0.8 | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Michael Hay | 2,239 | 4.5 | −5.1 | |
| Legalise Cannabis | Peter O'Loghlin | 1,148 | 2.3 | +2.3 | |
| Independent | Billy Wood | 980 | 2.0 | +2.0 | |
| Liberal Democrats | Margaret Hammond | 783 | 1.6 | +1.6 | |
| Sustainable Australia | Alan Crowe | 595 | 1.2 | +1.2 | |
| Independent | Natasha Ledger | 496 | 1.0 | +1.0 | |
| Public Education | Gary Hampton | 425 | 0.9 | +0.9 | |
| Total formal votes | 49,655 | 98.0 | −0.1 | ||
| Informal votes | 1,039 | 2.0 | +0.1 | ||
| Turnout | 50,694 | 87.6 | −3.1 | ||
| Two-party-preferred result | |||||
| National | Adam Marshall | 37,654 | 83.8 | +0.7 | |
| Labor | Yvonne Langenberg | 7,255 | 16.2 | −0.7 | |
| National hold | Swing | +0.7 | |||
Candidates
Candidates are listed in ballot order:
| Party | Candidate | Background | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | Ben Smith | ||
| Greens | Dorothy Robinson | Armidale Regional Councillor | |
| Independent | Natasha Ledger | 2023 candidate | |
| Independent | Duncan Fischer | Businessman | |
| National | Brendan Moylan | Solicitor | |
Key dates
Key dates in relation to the by-election are:
- 31 May 2024 – Issue of writ, Close of rolls
- 6 June 2024 – Close of nominations
- 7 June 2024 – Declaration of nominations
- 15 June 2024 – Commencement of early voting
- 17 June 2024 – Applications for postal voting closes
- 22 June 2024 – Polling day
- 12 July 2024 – Return of writ
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | Brendan Moylan | 31,203 | 67.9 | −3.7 | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Ben Smith | 5,229 | 11.4 | +6.9 | |
| Greens | Dorothy Robinson | 4,211 | 9.2 | +4.4 | |
| Independent | Duncan Fischer | 3,292 | 7.2 | +7.2 | |
| Independent | Natasha Ledger | 1,999 | 4.4 | +3.4 | |
| Total formal votes | 45,934 | 97.3 | −0.6 | ||
| Informal votes | 1,271 | 2.7 | +0.6 | ||
| Turnout | 47,205 | 80.2 | −7.4 | ||
| Two-candidate-preferred result | |||||
| National | Brendan Moylan | 33,611 | 81.9 | −1.9 | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Ben Smith | 7,411 | 18.1 | +18.1 | |
| National hold | Swing | −1.9 | |||
See also
- 2013 Northern Tablelands state by-election
- Electoral results for the district of Northern Tablelands
- List of New South Wales state by-elections
References
- "NSW's safest seat to go to byelection as MP quits". Sydney Morning Herald. 4 April 2024.
- "Northern Tablelands State By-Election". Electoral Commission of New South Wales. Retrieved 20 May 2013.
- LA First Preference: Northern Tablelands, NSW State Election Results 2023, NSW Electoral Commission. Retrieved 13 April 2023.
- LA Two Candidate Preferred: Northern Tablelands, NSW State Election Results 2023, NSW Electoral Commission. Retrieved 13 April 2023.
- "2024 Northern Tablelands State by-election". elections.nsw.gov.au. New South Wales Electoral Commission. Retrieved 7 June 2024.
- "2024 Northern Tablelands By-election: Candidate Application". Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party. Retrieved 14 May 2024.
- "Duncan Fischer for Northern Tablelands". Duncan Fischer. Archived from the original on 26 May 2024. Retrieved 26 May 2024.
- "NSW Nationals preselect Brendan Moylan for Northern Tablelands by-election". New South Wales National Party. 6 May 2024. Retrieved 9 May 2024.
- "Who is Brendan Moylan? - Northern Tablelands - National Party Of Nsw - LykElect.com". lykelect.com. Retrieved 5 June 2024.
- "2024 Northern Tablelands State by-election".
- "LA - Check Count Final Results - First Preference Votes - Northern Tablelands". NSW Electoral Commission. Retrieved 9 July 2024.
- "LA Check Count Final Results - Distribution of Preferences - Northern Tablelands". NSW Electoral Commission. Retrieved 9 July 2024.