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2024 Saskatchewan general election

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61 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan 31 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	56.77% 3.91%
First party Second party   Leader Scott Moe Carla Beck Party Saskatchewan New Democratic Leader since January 27, 2018 June 26, 2022 Leader's seat Rosthern-Shellbrook Regina Lakeview Last election 48 seats, 61.12% 13 seats, 31.82% Seats before 42 14 Seats won 34 27 Seat change 14 14 Popular vote 244,037 188,373 Percentage 52.24% 40.33% Swing 8.88 pp 8.49 pp
Riding map based on new boundaries
Premier before election Scott Moe Saskatchewan Premier after election Scott Moe Saskatchewan

The 2024 Saskatchewan general election was held on October 28, 2024, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan.

The incumbent Saskatchewan Party government, led by Premier Scott Moe since 2018, sought re-election to a fifth consecutive term. The Saskatchewan Party's primary opponent, the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Carla Beck, sought to lead the NDP to its first government since 2007. This was the first general election to feature the Saskatchewan United Party (SUP).

The Saskatchewan Party won enough seats to form its fifth consecutive majority government, claiming the majority of rural ridings. Its majority was reduced from eleven seats to three by a resurgent NDP—which achieved its best electoral performance since 2007 by taking every seat in Regina and all but one in Saskatoon. The SUP lost its only seat, which had been held by party founder Nadine Wilson. The results underscored the urban–rural divide between the two parties' constituencies.

Background

Since 2010, the Legislative Assembly has had a fixed four-year term. According to the 2019 amendment to the Legislative Assembly Act, 2007, "the first general election after the coming into force of this subsection must be held on Monday, October 26, 2020". Subsequent elections, must occur "on the last Monday of October in the fourth calendar year after the last general election". However, the act also provides that if the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the first Monday of the following April; in this case: April 7, 2025. The fixed election law does not infringe on the Lieutenant Governor's right to dissolve the Legislative Assembly at an earlier date on the Premier's advice.

Legislative summary

List of registered provincial political parties in Saskatchewan

Redistricting

The Saskatchewan Provincial Boundaries Commission drew a new map for Saskatchewan, as required by the Constituency Boundaries Act, 1993, which was subsequently ratified by the Saskatchewan Legislature. The Legislative Assembly continued to consist of 61 members.

The following changes took effect:

1. parts going to Regina University, Regina Northeast, Regina Wascana Plains and Regina Douglas Park
2. from parts of Regina Rosemont, Regina Pasqua and Lumsden-Morse
3. from parts of Regina University, Regina Pasqua and Lumsden-Morse

Campaign

Health care, education, and the economy have been considered to be among the top issues heading into the election, with the incumbent Saskatchewan Party and Saskatchewan NDP focusing primarily on these issues.

The province's health care system has been affected by staffing shortages, especially in rural areas of the province, which CUPE credited primarily to the Saskatchewan Health Authority's reliance on part-time workers as opposed to full-time positions. This has led to significant increases in vacancies and service disruptions since 2019. In early-October 2024, the emergency room of Saskatoon's Royal University Hospital operated at 350% capacity after other nearby facilities were unable to take patients in, causing it to run out of beds, stretchers, and oxygen. The Saskatchewan Party touted its effort to recruit nursing graduates, and internationally-trained nurses from countries such as the Philippines. It also stated that it would offer at-home screening kits for HPV, and a refundable tax credit of up to $10,000 for fertility treatment. Carla Beck stated that the NDP would invest $1.1 billion into critical front line services over the next four years, and focus on improving working conditions to achieve employee retention. Beck criticized Scott Moe during the leaders' debate for not making any specific funding commitments for health care in his party's platform.

The Saskatchewan Teachers' Federation (STF) has been in a labour dispute with the provincial government since May 2023, citing a lack of action on issues such as classroom size and complexity. After rotating strikes since January 2024, the STF enacted an indefinite work-to-rule beginning in April 2024. The Saskatchewan Party and NDP both pledged to place increased funding into education, with the Sask Party planning to spend $156 million on infrastructure and $336 million on classroom sizes and complexity, and the NDP planning to increase the education budget by $2 billion over four years to fund classroom size and complexity, infrastructure, and special needs programs. Beck also promised a new high school in White City, and the implementation of a healthy food program.

On October 17, expanding upon the Parents' Bill of Rights introduced in 2023, Moe announced that his "first order of business" after reelection would be to immediately enact rules requiring school students to use the changing rooms that correspond to their biological sex. The Saskatchewan Party stated that it had "received calls and correspondence" regarding a October 16 report from the Western Standard, which detailed a complaint from the parent of a rural school student who had seen two trans girls using the girls' changing room. The Canadian Press reported that a parent of the two students was one of the NDP's candidates. The proposal was not in the platform published by the Saskatchewan Party, and faced criticism from the NDP, STF, and LGBT rights advocates for harming the safety of transgender students. Regina Douglas Park MLA Nicole Sarauer stated that "no leader, community, political or otherwise, should aid in anyway to the outing or othering of children." Saskatchewan Party officials denied it was directly involved with the outing, and Moe later claimed he was unaware of the two children, and that "I never once spoke to any of the individuals, nor will I, nor should anyone." In November 2024, Moe walked back his declaration and stated that he had misspoke, saying that his first order of business would be to form a cabinet, and that the Minister of Education would enter into a consulting phase on policies with school boards following municipal and school board elections.

On the economic front, Moe stated that he would reduce personal income taxes, expand the tuition rebate offered in its graduate retention program, remove the carbon tax on heating oil, and establish new tax credits and rebates for first-time homeowners and families with children involved in the arts or sports. Beck stated that she would balance the province's budget within four years and cut $58 million in "Saskatchewan Party waste" within her first year of office. Beck also stated that she would suspend the provincial gas tax for six months, end the PST for groceries and children's clothing, and establish an accountability commission to investigate issues such as cost overruns on government projects.

Jon Hromek launched the Saskatchewan United Party's campaign on October 2, 2024, describing it as a "true conservative option", and hoping to have at least two candidates elected to the Legislative Assembly. Its platform focused on goals such as cutting the provincial sales tax, ending the fuel tax, lowering property taxes for homeowners over 65, reviewing the royalty framework for potash, privatization of health care, a commitment to coal and natural gas energy and the suspension of green energy projects, removing "ideology" and "indoctrination" from school curricula (including gender identity and the climate crisis), and proposals to prohibit transgender women from occupying women-only spaces or competing in women's sports. It was suggested that the Saskatchewan United Party could potentially split the right-wing vote with the Saskatchewan Party, although Scott Moe downplayed these concerns.

On October 22, it was reported that the front window of the office of Saskatchewan Party candidate Rahul Singh had been vandalized, with damage resembling small bullet holes. The party initially claimed that the vandalism was the result of a gun attack. The Regina Police Service stated that it had investigated a report of mischief reported on the evening of October 21, and that there was no evidence that firearms were involved.

The NDP has received endorsements from multiple current and former Saskatchewan Party members and MLAs, including from Speaker Randy Weekes.

Timeline

2020

• October 26: The Saskatchewan Party wins a majority government in the 2020 Saskatchewan general election. The Saskatchewan New Democratic Party (NDP) forms the official opposition. No other parties won seats in the election.

2022

• February 18: Ryan Meili announces his intention to resign as NDP leader. He intends to remain leader until a successor is chosen.
• June 26: Carla Beck is elected as Leader of the Saskatchewan NDP.
• November 30: The Saskatchewan United Party is registered with Elections Saskatchewan, with MLA Nadine Wilson its leader.

2023

• July 19: The Saskatchewan Liberal Party changes their party name to the Saskatchewan Progress Party.

2024

• May 16: Nadine Wilson stepped down as leader of the Saskatchewan United Party, and Jon Hromek was appointed as the new leader.
• October 1: The election campaign begins.
• October 12: Candidate nomination deadline at 2pm.
• October 22–26: Voting week.
• October 28: Final day of voting, first preliminary count. Saskatchewan Party wins fifth consecutive majority government.
• October 30: Second preliminary count, mail-in ballots received by October 26 counted.
• November 9: Final count, mail-in ballots received between October 27 and November 7 counted along with all hospital and remand centre votes. Returning officers will be verifying the numbers in each electoral district.

Candidates

Nominations closed on October 12.

Candidates by Party

Incumbents not contesting their seats

1. At dissolution
2. Previously MLA for Watrous (1999-2003)
3. ^ Previously elected under the Saskatchewan Party banner
4. Previously MLA for Biggar (2003-2016) and Redberry Lake (1999-2003)

Candidates by riding

Candidates in bold represent cabinet members and the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly. Party leaders are italicized. The symbol † indicates incumbent MLAs who are not running again. The symbol ‡ indicates incumbent MLAs who are running again in a different district.

Northwest Saskatchewan

Northeast Saskatchewan

West Central Saskatchewan

Southwest Saskatchewan

Southeast Saskatchewan

Saskatoon East

Saskatoon West

Regina

Opinion polls

Results

Although public opinion polling in the latter half of the campaign suggested that the NDP was leading the Saskatchewan Party in popular support, it remained unclear whether this would translate into a majority government, as their lead was based entirely on being ahead in Regina and Saskatoon while remaining ten points or more behind in the province's more rural districts.

Taking nearly all rural ridings and two in Saskatoon (Saskatoon Willowgrove, and Martensville-Blairmore—which includes the Blairmore neighbourhood of Saskatoon), the Saskatchewan Party won enough seats to form its fifth consecutive majority government. If the Saskatchewan Party completes a full four years in office, it will be the second-longest streak of party control in Saskatchewan, exceeded only by the Liberal governments of 1905–1929. The NDP reduced the Saskatchewan Party's majority from eleven seats at dissolution to three, taking all of Regina and all but two ridings in Saskatoon. Only one Saskatoon-based Saskatchewan Party MLA, Ken Cheveldayoff, won re-election.

The NDP achieved upset victories over several long-standing Saskatchewan Party MLAs and ministers, including Bronwyn Eyre, Gene Makowsky, Paul Merriman, Laura Ross, and Christine Tell.The NDP also reclaimed the far northern seat of Athabasca, a party stronghold which the party had unexpectedly lost to the Saskatchewan Party in a 2022 by-election, but did not otherwise make any new gains in the province's rural districts. The Saskatchewan United Party failed to win any seats, and lost its sole seat—held by party founder and former leader Nadine Wilson in the Saskatchewan Rivers riding—to the Saskatchewan Party candidate Eric Schmalz.

Of the 32,476 mail-in ballots requested, only 20,417 had been returned by October 30. The remaining 12,059 must be received by November 7 (two days before the Final Count) in order to be validly entered into the total result. There may yet be judicial recounts: under Saskatchewan law, they may only be requested by a candidate, and only if there is a tie or where the margin of victory is less than the number of rejected ballots and others objected to.

Synopsis of results

1. sorted as per results summary
2. including rejected and declined ballots

  = Open seat

  = Turnout is above provincial average

  = Winning candidate was in previous Legislature

  = Incumbent had switched allegiance

  = Previously incumbent in another riding

  = Not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature

  = Incumbency arose from byelection gain

  = Other incumbents renominated

  = Previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada

  = Multiple candidates

Summary analysis

Opinion poll sources

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2. Canseco, Mario (October 28, 2024). "Late Surge Gives Saskatchewan Its Closest Election Since 2003". Research Co.
3. "SK NDP Leads Saskatchewan Party, 49% to 46%". Liaison Strategies. October 26, 2024.
4. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Saskatchewan" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. October 25, 2024. Retrieved October 26, 2024.
5. "Saskatchewan NDP gaining momentum among decided voters, new poll says". CTV News Regina. Bell Media. October 22, 2024. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
6. "Saskatchewan Provincial Polling, October 9-24, 2024 – Cardinal Research".
7. "Ruling Party Stays Ahead of Opposition NDP in Saskatchewan". Research Co. October 11, 2024. Retrieved October 11, 2024.
8. "CUPE Saskatchewan - Election Survey -" (PDF). Janet Brown Opinion Research. September 16, 2024. Retrieved October 16, 2024.
9. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Saskatchewan" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. September 19, 2024. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
10. Davenport, Cole (September 25, 2024). "Sask. Party, NDP entering tight race in fall election, new poll says". CTV News Regina. Bell Media. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
11. "Election 2024: Saskatchewan Party maintains lead over the opposition NDP, but the gap is narrowing". Angus Reid Institute. August 22, 2024. Archived from the original on August 22, 2024. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
12. "2024.08.21_SK_Election_tables.pdf" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. August 21, 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 17, 2024. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
13. "Saskatchewan Political Polling July 2024". Insightrix. August 7, 2024. Archived from the original on August 19, 2024. Retrieved August 19, 2024.
14. "Saskatchewan Spotlight: Sask Party preferred on top issues, hold double-digit vote intention lead". Angus Reid Institute. March 15, 2024. Archived from the original on March 15, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
15. "2024.03.14_Sask_Final_Tables.pdf" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 15, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
16. "Independent Poll – Saskatchewan Voter Intent & School Teacher Labour Negotiations" (PDF). Insightrix. February 9, 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 14, 2024. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
17. "Saskatchewan: Majority support government's gender & pronoun policy but half also say exceptions needed" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. June 12, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 7, 2023. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
18. "Residents say federal government most to blame for rising cost of living in Saskatchewan, according to new poll". The SKoop. October 20, 2023. Archived from the original on October 20, 2023. Retrieved October 20, 2023.
19. "The SKoop Polling – October 2023". Insightrix. October 20, 2023. Archived from the original on October 20, 2023. Retrieved October 20, 2023.
20. "The SKoop Polling: Cost of living, healthcare top issues for Saskatchewan voters; Saskatchewan Party best able to handle cost of living issues". The SKoop. July 26, 2023. Archived from the original on July 27, 2023. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
21. "NEW POLLING: Cost of Living, Healthcare Top Issues for Sask. Voters". The SKoop. July 21, 2023. Archived from the original on July 25, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
22. Polling Canada (April 24, 2023). "Saskatchewan Provincial Polling..." (Tweet) – via Twitter.
23. "POLLING: Sask. Party Leads NDP, Sask. United Barely Registering Support". The SKoop. April 21, 2023. Archived from the original on April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 26, 2023.
24. Richardson, Dale (April 21, 2023). "Sask. Party Leads NDP in New Poll, Sask. United Registers Barely Any Support". The SKoop. Archived from the original on July 21, 2023. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
25. Salloum, Alec (April 24, 2023). "Recent poll shows NDP favoured over Sask. Party in Regina, Saskatoon". Regina Leader-Post. Postmedia Network. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 26, 2023.
26. "Prairie Politics: Moe and Stefanson share a border, but residents' government satisfaction is worlds apart". Angus Reid Institute. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
27. "Full Report" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. July 8, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 9, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
28. "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
29. "Detailed Results" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
30. "What is Saskatchewan?". Research Co. February 25, 2022. Archived from the original on February 25, 2022. Retrieved February 25, 2022.
31. "Spotlight on Provincial Politics" (PDF). Angus Reid. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 20, 2022.
32. "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
33. "Provincial Spotlight" (PDF). Angus Reid. October 27, 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
34. "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity & political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management" (PDF). angusreid.org. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 10, 2021.
35. "Viewpoint Saskatchewan: Vote Intentions & Party Identifications". Common Ground. Archived from the original on December 3, 2021. Retrieved December 3, 2021.
36. "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, COVID-19 management". Angus Reid Institute. December 10, 2020. Archived from the original on January 13, 2021. Retrieved January 12, 2021.

Notes

1. Currently Speaker of the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan.
2. The Biggar-Sask Valley constituency was eliminated following redistribution, prompting Weekes, then a Saskatchewan Party MLA, to seek the party's nomination in Kindersley-Biggar, which includes a portion of the former Biggar-Sask Valley constituency. Weekes later left the Saskatchewan Party after losing the nomination.

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v t e Elections in Saskatchewan
General elections	1905 1908 1912 1917 1921 1925 1929 1934 1938 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1967 1971 1975 1978 1982 1986 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2016 2020 2024
By-elections	2017 Saskatoon Meewasin 2022 Athabasca 2022 Saskatoon Meewasin 2023 Lumsden-Morse 2023 Regina Coronation Park 2023 Regina Walsh Acres
Municipal elections	2006 2009 2012 2016 2020 2024

• 2024 elections in Canada
• 2024 in Saskatchewan
• October 2024 events in Canada
• Elections in Saskatchewan