The global economic recession caused by the outbreak of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic first identified in December 2019 resulted in a significant decrease in birth rate, or "baby bust", in many countries.
All-time low birth rates were seen in Italy, Japan, South Korea, England, and Wales. France experienced its lowest birth rate since World War II. China's birth rate dropped by 15% in 2020. The United States saw a fall of 4% between 2019 and 2020 according to a report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), its lowest since 1979.
Causes
High-mortality events in general have been shown to result in a reduction in conception, as seen in birth rates nine months later. Lyman Stone in March 2020 suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic would cause a severe reduction in birth rate due to the disease's low case fatality rate, citing occasions on which high death rates motivate an increase in birth rate to replenish populations. A Brookings Institution report published in June 2020 projected a loss of 300,000 to 500,000 births in the United States, citing correlations between employment and birth rate as seen in the 2007–2008 Great Recession and general public health concerns as seen in the birth rate during the 1918 Spanish flu. Some initially suggested that lockdowns would beget a baby boom, likely based on myths of birth rate spikes seen nine months after events such as power outages and blizzards during which people are confined indoors.
Statistics
The U.S. birth rate declined by 4% for both white and black women, 3% for Hispanic women, 6% for Native American women, and 8% for Asian American women. The birth rate of teenagers was affected most severely of any age group, falling by 8%, with a fall of 6% of women between 20 and 24 and a fall of 4.8% of women in their late 20s.
References
- ^ McBain, Sophie (7 July 2021). "The baby bust: How a declining birth rate will reshape the world". New Statesman. Retrieved 9 December 2021.
In the US, the fertility rate fell by 4 per cent in 2020, to the lowest on record. Italy's birth rate has dropped to its lowest level since unification in 1861; together with a high Covid-19 death toll, this has caused a drop in population equivalent to a city the size of Florence. In France birth numbers have dropped to their lowest since the Second World War; in Japan and South Korea there have been record lows. The number of births in China dropped 15 per cent in 2020; after decades of maintaining a one-child policy, replaced with an allowance for two in 2016, the government announced in May that women could now have three children.
- ^ Chappell, Bill (5 May 2021). "U.S. Birthrate Fell By 4% In 2020, Hitting Another Record Low". NPR. Retrieved 9 December 2021.
- Stone, Lyman (11 March 2020). "Will the Coronavirus Spike Births?". Institute for Family Studies. Retrieved 10 December 2021.
- Kearney, Melissa; Levine, Phillip (15 June 2020). "Half a million fewer children? The coming COVID baby bust". Brookings Institution. Retrieved 10 December 2021.
- Grantham-Philips, Wyatte (17 December 2020). "COVID baby boom? No, 2020 triggered a baby bust - and that will have lasting impacts". USA Today. Retrieved 6 March 2021.
- Nordstrom, Louise (22 January 2021). "The baby boom that never was: France sees sharp decline in 'lockdown babies'". France 24. Retrieved 6 March 2021.