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2010 Catalan regional election

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(Redirected from Catalan parliamentary election, 2010) Election to the Parliament of Catalonia

2010 Catalan regional election

← 2006 28 November 2010 2012 →

All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia
68 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered5,363,688 Green arrow up0.8%
Turnout3,152,630 (58.8%)
Green arrow up2.8 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Artur Mas José Montilla Alicia Sánchez-Camacho
Party CiU PSC–PSOE PP
Leader since 7 January 2002 15 July 2006 6 July 2008
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 48 seats, 31.5% 37 seats, 26.8% 14 seats, 10.7%
Seats won 62 28 18
Seat change Green arrow up14 Red arrow down9 Green arrow up4
Popular vote 1,202,830 575,233 387,066
Percentage 38.4% 18.4% 12.4%
Swing Green arrow up6.9 pp Red arrow down8.4 pp Green arrow up1.7 pp

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Joan Herrera Joan Puigcercós Joan Laporta
Party ICV–EUiA ERC SI
Leader since 23 November 2008 7 June 2008 4 September 2010
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 12 seats, 9.5% 21 seats, 14.0% Did not contest
Seats won 10 10 4
Seat change Red arrow down2 Red arrow down11 Green arrow up4
Popular vote 230,824 219,173 102,921
Percentage 7.4% 7.0% 3.3%
Swing Red arrow down2.1 pp Red arrow down7.0 pp New party

  Seventh party
 
Leader Albert Rivera
Party C's
Leader since 9 July 2006
Leader's seat Barcelona
Last election 3 seats, 3.0%
Seats won 3
Seat change Blue arrow right0
Popular vote 106,154
Percentage 3.4%
Swing Green arrow up0.4 pp

Election result by constituency

President before election

José Montilla
PSC

Elected President

Artur Mas
CiU

The 2010 Catalan regional election was held on Sunday, 28 November 2010, to elect the 9th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election. This was the first election held in Catalonia after the Constitutional Court of Spain struck down parts of the regional 2006 Statute of Autonomy that granted new powers of self-rule to the region. The ruling came after four years of deliberation concerning a constitutional appeal filed by the conservative People's Party (PP) under Mariano Rajoy and was met with anger and street protests throughout the region.

The election resulted in a resounding victory for the Convergence and Union (CiU) federation under Artur Mas, whose 62 seats—six short of an absolute majority—virtually ensured that no alternative government was mathematically possible, as the left-wing alliance which had formed the government of Catalonia for the previous seven years fell to a bare 48 seats. The tripartit (English: tripartite) coalition formed by the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV) was already at the brink of split going into the election, with political disagreements between the former allies having led Catalan president José Montilla to announce that he would not seek a third alliance with ERC and ICV even if election numbers favored such a possibility. The election saw a collapse in support for all three parties and Montilla's retirement from the PSC leadership shortly afterwards.

The PP had one of its best showings in a Catalan regional election, with 12.4% of the vote and 18 seats. Albert Rivera's Citizens (C's) party saw a slight increase in its vote share, whereas the pro-Catalan independence Catalan Solidarity for Independence (SI) led by former FC Barcelona president Joan Laporta secured 4 seats in the Parliament.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Catalonia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure came regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law. Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:

Seats Constituencies
85 Barcelona
18 Tarragona
17 Girona
15 Lleida

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The regional president was required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 1 November 2006, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 1 November 2010. The election was required to be called no later than 17 October 2010, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Thursday, 16 December 2010.

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

Parliamentary composition

The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 5 October 2010, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia. The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

Parliamentary composition in October 2010
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Convergence and Union's Parliamentary Group CDC 34 48
UDC 14
Socialists–Citizens for Change Parliamentary Group PSC 32 37
CpC 5
Republican Left of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group ERC 21 21
People's Party of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group PP 14 14
Initiative for Catalonia Greens–United and
Alternative Left's Parliamentary Group
ICV 10 12
EUiA 2
Mixed Group Cs 2 2
Non-Inscrits INDEP 1 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances
Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
CiU List Artur Mas Catalan nationalism
Centrism
31.52% 48 ☒N
PSC–PSOE List José Montilla Social democracy 26.82% 37 checkY

ERC List Joan Puigcercós Catalan independence
Left-wing nationalism
Social democracy
14.03% 21 checkY
PP List Alicia Sánchez-Camacho Conservatism
Christian democracy
10.65% 14 ☒N
ICV–EUiA List Joan Herrera Regionalism
Eco-socialism
Green politics
9.52% 12 checkY

C's List Albert Rivera Social liberalism 3.03% 3 ☒N
SI List Joan Laporta Catalan independence New party ☒N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 1 November 2006 to 28 November 2010, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout CiU PSC ERC PP C's PxC UPyD RI.cat SI Lead
2010 regional election 28 Nov 2010 58.8 38.4
62
18.4
28
7.0
10
12.4
18
7.4
10
3.4
3
2.4
0
0.2
0
1.3
0
3.3
4
20.0
Ipsos–Eco/CCMA 28 Nov 2010 ? ? 40.2
63/66
17.3
24/27
8.1
11/13
11.1
15/17
7.3
8/10
3.2
2/3
1.5
0/1
3.7
3/4
22.9
GESOP/El Periòdic 25–27 Nov 2010 900 56–58 40.0
65/67
18.5
27/28
7.4
10/12
10.5
14/15
10.2
12/14
4.0
4
2.8
0/2
21.5
GESOP/El Periòdic 24–26 Nov 2010 900 54–56 39.2
64/66
19.3
29/30
7.2
10/12
10.4
14/15
9.9
12/13
3.7
3/4
2.6
0
19.9
GAD/COPE 22–26 Nov 2010 2,201 59.2 39.4
60/63
20.5
29/31
7.7
11/12
11.6
15/16
9.4
11/13
4.0
3/4
2.9
0/3
18.9
GESOP/El Periòdic 23–25 Nov 2010 900 54–56 39.9
65/67
19.5
29/30
7.0
10/11
9.9
13/14
9.5
11/13
3.7
3/4
2.6
0
20.4
GESOP/El Periòdic 22–24 Nov 2010 800 54–56 39.5
64/65
20.1
29/31
7.3
10/12
9.8
13/14
9.0
11/12
4.3
4/5
2.5
0
19.4
GESOP/El Periòdic 20–23 Nov 2010 700 53–55 39.5
64/65
20.1
29/31
7.3
10/12
10.1
13/14
8.4
10/12
4.4
4/5
2.9
0/2
19.4
GESOP/El Periòdic 20–22 Nov 2010 600 52–54 39.2
63/64
19.9
29/30
7.5
11/12
10.1
13/14
8.2
10/11
4.7
5
3.2
0/4
19.3
GESOP/El Periódico 20–21 Nov 2010 400 51–53 39.1
63/64
20.0
30
7.5
11
10.3
14
8.0
10/11
4.3
4/5
3.2
0/4
19.1
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 15–20 Nov 2010 2,500 60 39.3
62
22.2
33
9.1
13
8.5
12
8.0
10
4.1
4
1.0
0
0.4
0
1.1
0
2.9
1
17.1
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3 19 Nov 2010 ? 50.2 38.5
59/60
21.6
30/32
?
10/11
?
15/16
?
11/12
?
4
?
3
16.9
NC Report/La Razón 15–18 Nov 2010 1,000 53.9 39.4
60/62
21.8
31/32
9.3
13/14
11.4
15/16
8.5
11/12
3.2
2/3
1.8
0
17.6
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 15–18 Nov 2010 1,650 ? 40.4
61/64
21.8
30/32
8.1
11
12.7
17/19
8.1
9/10
3.0
3
18.6
Noxa/La Vanguardia 15–18 Nov 2010 1,200 ? 39.3
63/65
20.1
31/32
7.9
10/12
10.1
14
7.5
9/10
4.0
4
2.4
0/1
19.2
DYM/ABC 11–18 Nov 2010 1,141 52.3 40.0
60/62
21.7
31
6.6
11
11.3
15/16
10.0
12/13
4.6
5
1.8
0/1
18.3
Metroscopia/El País 16–17 Nov 2010 1,508 50–52 39.5
64/65
20.4
30
7.0
8/9
9.5
13/14
6.9
10
5.0
6/7
2.6
1/3
19.1
La Vanguardia 12 Nov 2010 ? ? 40.6
63/65
19.2
27/28
9.2
13
11.9
15/16
8.4
11/12
3.5
3
2.9
0/3
21.4
Feedback/RAC 1 8–12 Nov 2010 1,000 52.3 39.3
62/63
20.1
30/31
5.6
10/11
10.5
14/15
6.7
9/10
3.2
3
0.7
0
1.7
0/1
2.8
2/4
19.2
GESOP/El Periódico 7–10 Nov 2010 800 ? 39.0
62/63
21.3
31/32
7.7
11/12
10.8
14/15
9.0
11/12
3.2
3/4
2.7
0/2
19.7
Opina/Cadena SER 8–9 Nov 2010 1,200 ? 42.4
65/66
18.4
30/32
7.3
10/11
11.6
14/16
7.5
7/8
4.1
3
3.5
2/3
24.0
CIS 15 Oct–4 Nov 2010 2,966 ? 38.0
59
22.7
33
10.2
15/16
9.7
13/14
8.2
11
3.5
3
0.6
0
0.1
0
1.2
0
1.0
0
15.3
NC Report/La Razón 26–28 Oct 2010 1,000 53.5 41.0
62/63
21.6
30/31
8.8
11/12
11.9
15/16
10.1
12/13
2.9
2/3
19.4
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3 24 Oct 2010 ? 54.8 40.2 19.5 20.7
Feedback/RAC 1 18–22 Oct 2010 1,000 54.0 41.8
65/66
19.5
27/28
6.5
11/12
8.6
13
8.0
9/11
3.8
4
1.0
0
1.5
0
2.3
0/4
22.3
GESOP/CEO 11–22 Oct 2010 2,000 58.3 37.0
62/65
19.4
29/30
8.6
13/14
11.3
16
7.2
8/9
3.5
4
2.0
0
17.6
GESOP/El Periódico 26–28 Sep 2010 800 51–52 40.5
63/65
20.8
30/31
8.4
12/13
10.4
14/15
7.2
9/10
2.9
2/3
2.7
0/2
19.7
Feedback/RAC 1 20–24 Sep 2010 1,000 55.3 41.2
63/65
20.4
30/31
8.0
10/11
10.7
15/16
7.3
9/10
3.7
3/4
1.0
0
2.4
0/3
20.8
TNS Demoscopia/SI 20–23 Sep 2010 1,201 54.2 34.6
56/59
20.2
30/32
6.9
9/12
10.1
13/15
9.3
13/14
4.4
4
0.8
0
1.6
0
5.6
6/8
14.4
Metroscopia/El País 20–22 Sep 2010 1,200 50 40.7
61
19.2
28
9.2
12
12.5
17
7.6
9
3.6
4
2.6
2
2.6
2
21.5
Noxa/La Vanguardia 1–2 Sep 2010 800 ? 38.9
60/61
21.1
31/32
10.1
15/16
11.2
15
9.2
12
2.6
0/3
2.6
0/3
17.8
Noxa/La Vanguardia 12–14 Jul 2010 1,000 ? 42.1
65/66
23.1
32/33
8.4
13
10.3
14
7.4
10
2.4
0
1.9
0
19.0
GESOP/CEO 28 Jun–8 Jul 2010 2,000 53.9 40.5
67/68
21.1
31/32
8.7
13
9.8
13
7.4
10
2.6
0
0.9
0
19.4
NC Report/La Razón 2–3 Jul 2010 1,000 53.8 40.4
60/61
22.2
32/33
9.2
12/13
11.6
15/16
10.5
13/14
2.8
0
18.2
Metroscopia/El País 1 Jul 2010 302 ? 39.0 24.7 7.5 14.3
GESOP/El Periódico 10–11 Jun 2010 800 ? 41.0
65/67
21.0
30/32
8.5
12/13
10.0
13/14
8.5
10/12
1.2
0
0.5
0
1.3
0
20.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 24–26 May 2010 1,000 ? 36.1
57/59
24.8
35/38
9.5
12/15
14.8
20/22
5.7
5/7
11.3
Noxa/La Vanguardia 10–13 May 2010 1,000 ? 41.1
63/64
23.5
33/34
8.7
13
10.5
14
8.5
11
1.4
0
0.9
0
17.6
GESOP/CEO 16–30 Apr 2010 2,000 56.8 39.6
65
23.2
36
8.8
13
8.5
12
7.7
9
1.8
0
1.4
0
16.4
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 7–16 Apr 2010 2,500 ? 38.8
58/60
28.2
41/43
9.0
13
7.2
10
7.7
10/11
1.9
0
0.7
0
0.8
0
1.2
0
10.6
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3 22–23 Mar 2010 1,100 49.5 40.5
61/62
23.9
35/36
10.3
13/14
9.3
12/13
9.2
11/12
1.8
0
2.1
0
16.6
GESOP/El Periódico 15–18 Mar 2010 ? ? 38.7
61/63
23.0
34/36
8.4
12/13
9.8
13/14
8.3
11/12
1.5
0
1.0
0
15.7
GAD/COPE 9–15 Mar 2010 1,000 60 39.0
59
23.5
35
9.4
13
12.7
16
8.8
12
2.1
0
15.5
Noxa/La Vanguardia 8–10 Mar 2010 1,000 ? 43.9
65/67
23.9
32/33
7.7
11/12
10.4
13/14
9.2
11/12
0.1
0
1.8
0
20.0
GESOP/CEO 13–28 Jan 2010 2,000 56.9 35.6
58
24.7
38
9.8
15
9.7
13
8.5
10
2.1
0
1.2
1
10.9
Opina/CEO 2–13 Nov 2009 2,000 56.8 33.4
55/57
23.1
36/38
10.1
17
10.3
15
6.8
10
1.7
0
1.4
0
10.3
GESOP/El Periódico 26–28 Oct 2009 800 ? 35.1
55/57
25.1
36/38
10.8
16/17
9.4
12/14
10.1
13/14
1.2
0
1.3
0
10.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia 22–27 Oct 2009 1,000 ? 36.2
57/58
25.1
35/36
9.5
14/15
11.2
15/16
8.5
10/11
0.7
0
2.8
0/3
11.1
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 1–4 Sep 2009 ? ? 35.7
53/54
30.8
44/46
6.9
11
10.8
13/15
8.4
11
1.6
0
1.4
0
4.9
GESOP/El Periódico 14–15 Jul 2009 600 ? 34.4
54/56
26.0
37/39
11.0
16/17
8.5
12
10.0
12/13
1.5
0
8.4
Opina/CEO 29 Jun–10 Jul 2009 2,000 ? 35.4
54
25.5
37
10.4
15
11.3
15
8.7
11
2.6
3
9.9
2009 EP election 7 Jun 2009 36.9 22.4
(35)
36.0
(54)
9.2
(13)
18.0
(26)
6.1
(7)
0.4
(0)
0.8
(0)
13.6
Opina/CEO 20–30 Apr 2009 2,000 ? 38.5
59
23.0
34
12.2
17
10.5
14
7.9
11
2.6
0
15.5
GESOP/El Periódico 9–11 Mar 2009 800 ? 35.6
55/56
26.5
38/39
10.6
15/16
8.8
12/13
9.0
11/12
2.5
0/2
9.1
Opina/CEO 19–28 Jan 2009 2,000 ? 34.5
56
24.3
35/36
12.3
17/18
8.6
12
9.2
12
2.8
2
10.2
Noxa/La Vanguardia 24–27 Nov 2008 600 ? 34.8
51/53
26.0
36/37
13.7
19/20
9.7
12/13
9.2
11/12
2.7
0/3
8.8
GESOP/El Periódico 10–13 Nov 2008 800 ? 34.2
52/54
26.9
38/39
13.9
20/21
8.0
10/11
9.0
11/12
2.4
0/2
7.3
Opina/CEO 20–28 Oct 2008 2,000 ? 34.0
52
25.6
37
10.8
16/17
12.2
15/17
8.9
12
1.9
1/2
8.4
GESOP/El Periódico 1–2 Jul 2008 ? ? 34.8
52/53
27.3
38/39
12.7
17/18
9.0
12/13
8.0
10/11
3.1
2/3
7.5
Opina/CEO 16 Jun–1 Jul 2008 2,000 ? 34.7
53
25.9
38
12.7
18
9.2
13
8.8
11
2.5
2
8.8
Opina/CEO 14–25 Apr 2008 2,000 ? 31.9
48
29.6
42
11.5
17
10.4
13
9.7
12
3.0
3
2.3
GESOP/El Periódico 22–24 Apr 2008 ? ? 35.6
53/55
28.4
40/42
11.8
17/18
8.5
10/11
8.9
11/12
2.1
0
7.2
La Vanguardia 9 Mar 2008 ? 70.3 30.4
50
30.3
45
9.8
14
10.7
15
8.0
11
0.1
2008 general election 9 Mar 2008 70.3 20.9
(31)
45.4
(65)
7.8
(12)
16.4
(22)
4.9
(5)
0.7
(0)
0.1
(0)
0.2
(0)
24.5
GESOP/El Periódico 8–11 Jan 2008 ? ? 33.3
51/52
27.0
38/40
11.8
18
10.4
14
8.3
11
2.4
0/2
6.3
Noxa/La Vanguardia 22–25 Oct 2007 800 ? 30.8
46
28.9
39
14.6
22
10.6
14
8.8
11
3.5
3
1.9
GESOP/El Periódico 14 Oct 2007 ? ? 33.0
51/52
27.0
38/40
14.0
21/22
9.5
12/13
8.5
10/11
2.0
0
6.0
Opina/CEO 17–28 Sep 2007 2,200 ? 30.4
46/47
28.5
42
13.3
20
8.6
11/12
10.2
13
1.9
0/2
1.9
Opina/CEO 18 Jun–2 Jul 2007 2,200 ? 33.4
50/51
27.0
40
11.9
17
9.0
12
9.9
12/13
3.6
3
6.4
GESOP/El Periódico 25–27 Jun 2007 ? ? 33.0
51/53
27.0
38/40
13.3
19/20
9.5
12/13
9.0
11/12
2.5
0/2
6.0
2007 local elections 27 May 2007 53.9 25.3 32.2 11.7 9.9 9.1 2.3 0.4 6.9
GESOP/El Periódico 15–17 Apr 2007 800 ? 32.0
49/50
28.6
39/40
12.5
18
9.8
13
10.0
13
2.7
2
3.4
Opina/CEO 2–16 Mar 2007 2,200 ? 29.8 27.6 13.8 10.2 10.2 3.5 2.2
GESOP/El Periódico 17–18 Jan 2007 800 ? 31.1
47/48
28.4
39/40
12.2
18
10.5
14
9.9
12
4.0
4
2.7
DYM/CEO 6–20 Nov 2006 2,100 ? 32.6 26.3 13.1 8.6 10.5 6.0 6.3
2006 regional election 1 Nov 2006 56.0 31.5
48
26.8
37
14.0
21
10.7
14
9.5
12
3.0
3
4.7

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size CiU PSC ERC PP C's PxC RI.cat SI Question? ☒N Lead
2010 regional election 28 Nov 2010 22.9 10.9 4.2 7.3 4.4 2.0 1.4 0.7 2.0 40.1 12.0
GESOP/El Periòdic 25–27 Nov 2010 900 32.9 14.1 5.7 6.1 6.9 2.6 2.0 16.1 5.6 18.8
GESOP/El Periòdic 24–26 Nov 2010 900 30.8 14.9 5.2 6.0 7.2 2.2 1.9 16.0 6.3 15.9
GESOP/El Periòdic 23–25 Nov 2010 900 30.8 16.8 4.8 5.5 5.3 3.2 2.3 15.8 5.8 14.0
GESOP/El Periòdic 22–24 Nov 2010 800 30.8 16.3 4.8 5.6 6.8 2.3 2.1 13.7 7.0 14.5
GESOP/El Periòdic 20–23 Nov 2010 700 30.3 17.3 4.6 5.8 6.8 2.6 2.0 12.9 7.3 13.0
GESOP/El Periòdic 20–22 Nov 2010 600 32.0 18.3 4.4 5.9 5.3 2.9 2.3 12.8 6.0 13.7
GESOP/El Periódico 20–21 Nov 2010 400 29.8 16.0 4.8 5.8 4.8 2.8 3.0 16.5 4.3 13.8
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 15–20 Nov 2010 2,500 25.7 12.8 4.8 4.9 4.0 1.9 0.7 0.5 1.6 12.9
Feedback/RAC 1 8–12 Nov 2010 1,000 25.5 13.3 5.4 3.5 3.0 1.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 26.3 10.0 12.2
CIS 15 Oct–4 Nov 2010 2,966 20.6 13.4 5.8 5.1 5.4 2.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 19.1 17.5 7.2
Feedback/RAC 1 18–22 Oct 2010 1,000 28.4 10.6 4.2 4.0 5.2 1.9 0.8 1.2 1.8 22.2 9.0 17.8
GESOP/CEO 11–22 Oct 2010 2,000 24.4 14.2 7.4 6.2 5.2 2.1 22.5 5.9 10.2
GESOP/El Periódico 26–28 Sep 2010 800 29.5 15.9 5.8 4.3 2.9 1.5 1.4 1.9 21.2 7.0 13.6
GESOP/CEO 28 Jun–8 Jul 2010 2,000 25.3 14.2 6.0 3.8 5.6 1.0 28.3 7.0 11.1
Metroscopia/El País 1 Jul 2010 302 22.2 19.9 5.6 6.6 1.0 1.0 23.5 10.6 2.3
GESOP/El Periódico 10–11 Jun 2010 800 32.3 16.1 7.1 3.9 4.1 0.8 0.4 1.1 14.2 11.0 16.2
GESOP/CEO 16–30 Apr 2010 2,000 25.0 17.5 6.6 4.3 5.0 1.1 21.8 9.2 7.5
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 7–16 Apr 2010 2,500 24.6 20.1 5.7 4.3 5.0 1.0 0.3 0.7 4.5
GESOP/El Periódico 15–18 Mar 2010 ? 29.6 20.0 5.9 4.0 5.3 0.9 0.6 13.3 8.6 9.6
GESOP/CEO 13–28 Jan 2010 2,000 23.0 17.4 7.6 4.9 5.6 1.2 20.8 10.5 5.6
Opina/CEO 2–13 Nov 2009 2,000 21.8 15.7 8.1 4.8 5.0 0.8 15.9 13.9 6.1
GESOP/El Periódico 26–28 Oct 2009 800 25.3 22.9 8.3 4.6 5.9 0.6 13.3 11.5 2.4
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 1–4 Sep 2009 ? 22.3 22.6 3.6 5.2 4.9 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.3
GESOP/El Periódico 14–15 Jul 2009 600 21.2 20.3 8.7 3.3 6.2 0.3 0.9
Opina/CEO 29 Jun–10 Jul 2009 2,000 23.8 18.0 8.4 3.9 6.9 1.1 23.3 8.6 5.8
2009 EP election 7 Jun 2009 8.4 13.4 3.4 6.7 2.3 0.1 62.5 5.0
Opina/CEO 20–30 Apr 2009 2,000 24.9 19.7 9.6 3.8 5.1 1.1 23.0 6.9 5.2
GESOP/El Periódico 9–11 Mar 2009 800 26.6 25.4 8.3 2.9 7.0 1.3 13.3 8.0 1.2
Opina/CEO 19–28 Jan 2009 2,000 21.4 21.0 9.8 3.7 5.9 1.3 18.3 9.7 0.4
GESOP/El Periódico 10–13 Nov 2008 800 25.8 27.9 10.4 3.6 5.0 0.8 12.8 8.4 2.1
Opina/CEO 20–28 Oct 2008 2,000 21.2 21.6 7.9 5.2 7.1 0.7 20.7 9.9 0.4
GESOP/El Periódico 1–2 Jul 2008 ? 25.5 26.8 11.5 3.9 5.3 1.4 13.5 8.5 1.3
Opina/CEO 16 Jun–1 Jul 2008 2,000 23.1 22.0 11.3 4.0 6.1 1.1 19.1 7.4 1.1
Opina/CEO 14–25 Apr 2008 2,000 21.5 27.9 9.5 4.5 7.6 1.4 18.2 6.3 6.4
GESOP/El Periódico 22–24 Apr 2008 ? 29.4 30.3 10.4 2.6 5.5 0.9 11.0 5.6 0.9
2008 general election 9 Mar 2008 14.9 32.1 5.6 11.6 3.5 0.5 0.0 28.8 17.2
Opina/CEO 21–30 Jan 2008 2,000 20.8 21.2 10.8 2.9 7.9 1.6 23.9 7.1 0.4
GESOP/El Periódico 8–11 Jan 2008 ? 23.5 26.6 10.9 4.3 6.5 1.1 3.1
GESOP/El Periódico 14 Oct 2007 ? 22.4 25.4 12.6 4.1 5.1 1.5 12.9 9.3 3.0
Opina/CEO 17–28 Sep 2007 2,200 16.6 20.2 10.2 2.4 7.7 1.0 25.7 9.2 3.6
Opina/CEO 18 Jun–2 Jul 2007 2,200 18.5 19.8 9.6 3.1 7.4 1.5 23.9 9.5 1.3
GESOP/El Periódico 25–27 Jun 2007 ? 24.5 23.5 11.5 5.1 6.5 1.5 9.9 10.0 1.0
GESOP/El Periódico 15–17 Apr 2007 800 23.7 24.6 11.5 3.4 7.4 1.6 13.4 16.8 0.9
Opina/CEO 2–16 Mar 2007 2,200 19.5 20.2 9.6 4.1 7.2 1.8 22.7 10.1 0.7
GESOP/El Periódico 17–18 Jan 2007 800 24.3 22.6 11.4 4.1 7.4 2.9 13.6 9.1 1.7
DYM/CEO 6–20 Nov 2006 2,100 22.6 17.1 11.0 4.1 9.6 4.4 16.0 9.1 5.5
2006 regional election 1 Nov 2006 17.8 15.2 7.9 6.0 5.4 1.7 43.2 2.6

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size CiU PSC ERC PP C's PxC RI.cat SI Other/
None
Question? Lead
Metroscopia/El País 16–17 Nov 2010 1,508 50.0 27.0 23.0 23.0
Opina/Cadena SER 8–9 Nov 2010 1,200 36.4 20.8 5.3 7.1 3.1 1.2 0.6 2.7 8.9 14.0 15.6
CIS 15 Oct–4 Nov 2010 2,966 27.6 19.1 8.0 5.9 6.9 3.1 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 26.3 8.5

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size CiU PSC ERC PP C's PxC RI.cat SI Other/
None
Question? Lead
Opina/Cadena SER 8–9 Nov 2010 1,200 66.7 12.8 0.4 3.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 15.6 53.9
CIS 15 Oct–4 Nov 2010 2,966 56.9 14.1 0.5 5.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 22.4 42.8

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

All candidates
Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/
None/
Not
care
Question? Lead
Mas
CiU
Montilla
PSC
Carod
ERC
Puigcercós
ERC
Piqué
PP
Sirera
PP
Camacho
PP
Saura
ICV–EUiA
Herrera
ICV–EUiA
Rivera
C's
Laporta
SI
GESOP/El Periòdic 25–27 Nov 2010 900 40.0 15.0 5.0 4.2 6.2 3.3 2.9 25.0
GESOP/El Periòdic 24–26 Nov 2010 900 38.2 15.4 4.9 4.8 6.2 2.6 2.8 22.8
GESOP/El Periòdic 23–25 Nov 2010 900 37.4 16.2 4.2 4.2 6.2 3.2 2.9 21.2
GESOP/El Periòdic 22–24 Nov 2010 800 35.6 16.4 3.4 4.6 5.9 3.4 3.0 19.2
GESOP/El Periòdic 20–23 Nov 2010 700 36.9 17.1 3.9 4.6 5.0 4.0 2.6 19.8
GESOP/El Periòdic 20–22 Nov 2010 600 33.7 17.3 5.0 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.2 16.4
GESOP/El Periódico 20–21 Nov 2010 400 32.8 17.8 15.0
GESOP/El Periódico 7–10 Nov 2010 800 38.6 17.4 5.0 4.6 5.1 1.6 4.5 17.5 5.7 21.2
Opina/Cadena SER 8–9 Nov 2010 1,200 38.6 20.1 4.6 4.1 2.7 1.2 2.7 9.0 17.0 18.5
CIS 15 Oct–4 Nov 2010 2,966 30.9 17.5 5.5 3.9 5.4 2.7 8.1 26.0 13.4
GESOP/El Periódico 26–28 Sep 2010 800 37.3 18.3 5.1 2.9 2.8 2.3 5.6 25.2 6.9 19.0
GESOP/El Periódico 10–11 Jun 2010 800 32.6 18.0 6.4 3.8 5.0 4.6 29.6 14.6
GESOP/El Periódico 15–18 Mar 2010 ? 31.9 24.1 6.6 2.8 4.5 1.3 5.0 23.8 7.8
GESOP/El Periódico 26–28 Oct 2009 800 27.3 25.4 7.6 3.1 5.6 31.0 1.9
GESOP/El Periódico 1–2 Jul 2008 ? 25.6 32.6 9.4 1.4 4.8 2.1 24.1 7.0
GESOP/El Periódico 22–24 Apr 2008 ? 26.1 30.0 9.6 1.5 6.0 2.0 24.8 3.9
GESOP/El Periódico 14 Oct 2007 ? 25.8 26.5 10.3 1.8 6.0 1.8 27.8 0.7
GESOP/El Periódico 25–27 Jun 2007 ? 26.0 25.3 9.3 7.0 5.3 2.3 24.8 0.7
GESOP/El Periódico 15–17 Apr 2007 800 26.3 26.1 10.1 3.9 7.6 2.4 23.6 0.2
GESOP/El Periódico 17–18 Jan 2007 800 26.1 22.3 10.1 6.0 6.9 2.6 26.0 3.8
Mas vs. Montilla
Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/
None/
Not
care
Question? Lead
Mas
CiU
Montilla
PSC
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 15–20 Nov 2010 2,500 43.9 21.3 34.8 22.6
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3 19 Nov 2010 ? 51.2 31.2 13.2 4.4 20.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia 15–18 Nov 2010 1,200 51.0 28.0 21.0 23.0
Feedback/RAC 1 8–12 Nov 2010 1,000 51.9 22.1 25.4 0.6 29.8
GESOP/El Periódico 7–10 Nov 2010 800 56.4 32.1 11.5 24.3
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3 24 Oct 2010 ? 53.6 25.2 14.1 7.1 28.4
Feedback/RAC 1 18–22 Oct 2010 1,000 50.5 23.1 23.1 3.3 27.4
GESOP/El Periódico 26–28 Sep 2010 800 56.5 28.4 15.1 28.1
Feedback/RAC 1 20–24 Sep 2010 1,000 56.0 24.0 16.3 3.7 32.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia 1–2 Sep 2010 800 44.0 27.0 29.0 17.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia 12–14 Jul 2010 1,000 52.0 25.0 23.0 27.0
GESOP/El Periódico 10–11 Jun 2010 800 52.3 34.3 13.4 18.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia 10–13 May 2010 1,000 50.0 28.0 22.0 22.0
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 7–16 Apr 2010 2,500 34.0 26.8 39.2 7.2
GESOP/El Periódico 15–18 Mar 2010 ? 47.6 38.8 13.6 8.8
Noxa/La Vanguardia 8–10 Mar 2010 1,000 50.0 30.0 20.0 20.0
GESOP/El Periódico 26–28 Oct 2009 800 45.8 42.8 13.6 3.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia 22–27 Oct 2009 1,000 45.0 34.0 21.0 11.0
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 1–4 Sep 2009 ? 34.1 29.6 36.3 4.5
GESOP/El Periódico 9–11 Mar 2009 800 45.4 44.8 9.8 0.6
Noxa/La Vanguardia 24–27 Nov 2008 600 46.0 36.0 18.0 10.0
GESOP/El Periódico 10–13 Nov 2008 800 39.9 45.4 14.7 5.5
GESOP/El Periódico 1–2 Jul 2008 ? 41.1 47.6 11.3 6.5
GESOP/El Periódico 22–24 Apr 2008 ? 42.6 49.4 8.0 6.8
GESOP/El Periódico 8–11 Jan 2008 ? 40.9 43.8 15.3 2.9
Noxa/La Vanguardia 22–25 Oct 2007 800 37.0 42.0 10.0 11.0 5.0

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/
None/
Not
care
Question? Lead
Mas
CiU
Montilla
PSC
Puigcercós
ERC
Camacho
PP
Herrera
ICV–EUiA
Rivera
C's
Laporta
SI
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 15–20 Nov 2010 2,500 69.7 12.5 17.8 57.2
GESOP/El Periódico 7–10 Nov 2010 800 75.1 13.4 0.8 10.7 61.7
Opina/Cadena SER 8–9 Nov 2010 1,200 66.6 10.9 0.4 1.8 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.0 18.8 55.7
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 7–16 Apr 2010 2,500 43.4 22.4 34.2 21.0
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 1–4 Sep 2009 ? 28.2 35.1 36.7 6.9

Results

Overall

Summary of the 28 November 2010 Parliament of Catalonia election results
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Convergence and Union (CiU) 1,202,830 38.43 +6.91 62 +14
Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE) 575,233 18.38 –8.44 28 –9
People's Party (PP) 387,066 12.37 +1.72 18 +4
Initiative for Catalonia Greens–United and Alternative Left (ICV–EUiA) 230,824 7.37 –2.15 10 –2
Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) 219,173 7.00 –7.03 10 –11
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 106,154 3.39 +0.36 3 ±0
Catalan Solidarity for Independence (SI) 102,921 3.29 New 4 +4
Platform for Catalonia (PxC) 75,134 2.40 New 0 ±0
Independence Rally (RI.cat) 39,834 1.27 New 0 ±0
Blank SeatsCitizens for Blank Votes (EB–CenB) 18,679 0.60 +0.35 0 ±0
The Greens–European Green Group (EV–GVE) 15,784 0.50 New 0 ±0
Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 14,238 0.45 –0.01 0 ±0
From Below (Des de Baix) 7,189 0.23 New 0 ±0
Reus Independent Coordinator (CORI) 6,990 0.22 New 0 ±0
Pirates of Catalonia (Pirata.cat) 6,451 0.21 New 0 ±0
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 5,418 0.17 New 0 ±0
Pensioners in Action Party (PDLPEA) 3,330 0.11 New 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Catalan People (PCPC) 3,028 0.10 –0.08 0 ±0
Government Alternative (AG) 2,208 0.07 New 0 ±0
Family and Life Party (PFiV) 2,201 0.07 –0.02 0 ±0
For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 2,100 0.07 +0.04 0 ±0
Internationalist Socialist Workers' Party (POSI) 1,920 0.06 –0.13 0 ±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) 1,760 0.06 New 0 ±0
Left Republican Party–Republican Left (PRE–IR) 1,547 0.05 +0.03 0 ±0
Castilian Party (PCAS) 1,066 0.03 New 0 ±0
Humanist Party (PH) 908 0.03 –0.06 0 ±0
Communist Unification of Spain (UCE) 904 0.03 New 0 ±0
Farmers for the Catalan Rural Dignity (PDR.cat) 824 0.03 New 0 ±0
Republican Social Movement (MSR) 788 0.03 –0.01 0 ±0
Our People (GN) 597 0.02 New 0 ±0
We Are All Equal (GLBTH/TSI) 498 0.02 New 0 ±0
Party for Catalonia (PxCAT) 314 0.01 New 0 ±0
Democratic and Social Centre (CDS) 218 0.01 New 0 ±0
Catalan Sovereigntist Bloc (Bloc SC) 187 0.01 New 0 ±0
Aragonese Party (PAR) 98 0.00 New 0 ±0
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) 82 0.00 New 0 ±0
Social and Liberal Alternative (ALS) 54 0.00 New 0 ±0
Progress and Justice Party (PJP) 49 0.00 New 0 ±0
Democratic Web (DW) 46 0.00 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 91,631 2.93 +0.90
Total 3,130,276 135 ±0
Valid votes 3,130,276 99.29 –0.25
Invalid votes 22,354 0.71 +0.25
Votes cast / turnout 3,152,630 58.78 +2.74
Abstentions 2,211,058 41.22 –2.74
Registered voters 5,363,688
Sources
Footnotes:
  • Blank SeatsCitizens for Blank Votes results are compared to the combined totals of Unsubmissive Seats–Alternative of Discontented Democrats and Citizens for Blank Votes in the 2006 election.
Popular vote
CiU 38.43%
PSC–PSOE 18.38%
PP 12.37%
ICV–EUiA 7.37%
ERC 7.00%
C's 3.39%
SI 3.29%
PxC 2.40%
RI.cat 1.27%
Others 3.18%
Blank ballots 2.93%
Seats
CiU 45.93%
PSC–PSOE 20.74%
PP 13.33%
ICV–EUiA 7.41%
ERC 7.41%
SI 2.96%
C's 2.22%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency CiU PSC PP ICV–EUiA ERC C's SI
% S % S % S % S % S % S % S
Barcelona 36.8 35 19.2 18 12.9 12 8.3 8 6.4 6 3.8 3 3.1 3
Girona 45.1 9 14.3 3 8.6 1 4.8 1 9.2 2 1.7 4.7 1
Lleida 46.9 8 14.8 3 10.2 2 4.0 9.1 1 1.5 3.1
Tarragona 39.3 9 18.2 4 13.4 3 5.1 1 8.5 1 2.7 3.4
Total 38.4 62 18.4 28 12.4 18 7.4 10 7.0 10 3.4 3 3.3 4
Sources

Aftermath

Investiture
Artur Mas (CiU)
Ballot → 21 December 2010 23 December 2010
Required majority → 68 out of 135 ☒N Simple checkY
Yes 62 / 135 62 / 135
No 73 / 135 45 / 135
Abstentions
  • PSC (28) (on 23 Dec)
0 / 135 28 / 135
Absentees 0 / 135 0 / 135
Sources

Notes

  1. Transitory Provision Second of the 2006 Statute maintained the validity of the electoral regulations within the 1979 Statute, of application for as long as a specific law regulating the procedures for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia was not approved.
  2. José Domingo, former Cs legislator.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. "El sondeig de TV3 i Catalunya Ràdio pronostica una victòria de CiU a prop de la majoria absoluta". CCMA (in Catalan). 28 November 2010.
  2. ^ "Dades generals sondejos campanya Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya 2010" (PDF). Generalitat de Catalunya (in Catalan). Archived from the original (PDF) on 23 May 2011. Retrieved 7 January 2018.
  3. ^ "CiU, a un pas de la majoria absoluta i dur revés per a PSC". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Catalan). 27 November 2010. Archived from the original on 29 November 2010.
  4. ^ "El PSC no aconsegueix retallar la diferència amb CiU". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Catalan). 27 November 2010. Archived from the original on 30 November 2010. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  5. "CiU, ganador indiscutible y Laporta podría conseguir representación en el Parlamento". COPE (in Spanish). 28 November 2010. Archived from the original on 1 December 2010. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  6. "Elecciones Cataluña. Encuesta de cierre de urnas" (PDF). GAD (in Spanish). 28 November 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 November 2011.
  7. ^ "CiU s'acosta a la majoria absoluta". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Catalan). 26 November 2010. Archived from the original on 30 November 2010. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  8. ^ "Estabilitat dels dos primers i ascens d'ICV-EUiA". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Catalan). 25 November 2010. Archived from the original on 30 November 2010. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  9. ^ "CiU avança als 65 escons i el PSC es recupera". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Catalan). 24 November 2010. Archived from the original on 30 November 2010. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  10. ^ "CiU manté els 64 escons i el PSC segueix a la baixa". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Catalan). 23 November 2010. Archived from the original on 29 November 2010. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  11. "CiU se acerca aún más a la mayoría absoluta". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 22 November 2010.
  12. ^ "CiU s'acosta encara més a la majoria absoluta". El Periòdic d'Andorra (in Catalan). 22 November 2010. Archived from the original on 29 November 2010. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  13. ^ "CiU se sitúa al borde de la mayoría absoluta". Público (in Spanish). 22 November 2010. Archived from the original on 25 November 2010.
  14. ^ "CIU ganaría con comodidad las elecciones catalanas, a día de hoy". Antena 3 (in Spanish). 19 November 2010.
  15. "Seis escaños separan a CiU de la mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 November 2010. Archived from the original on 25 November 2010. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  16. "CiU podría gobernar sin aliados". El Mundo (in Spanish). 21 November 2010.
  17. ^ "Catalunya prefiere el cambio". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 21 November 2010.
  18. "CiU obtendría entre 60 y 62 escaños ante un tripartito sin mayoría". ABC (in Spanish). 21 November 2010.
  19. ^ "CiU barre en Cataluña". El País (in Spanish). 21 November 2010.
  20. "Ciutadans duplica sus escaños (El País)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 21 November 2010. Archived from the original on 24 November 2010. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  21. "Por sus votos los conoceréis". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 12 November 2010.
  22. "Convergència i Unió manté les distàncies a menys de dues per les eleccions segons l'últim Racòmetre". RAC 1 (in Catalan). 15 November 2010. Archived from the original on 20 November 2010. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  23. ^ "Dilluns 15 de novembre de 2010. El Racòmetre" (PDF). Feedback (in Catalan). 15 November 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on 25 March 2012.
  24. "CiU se aleja de la mayoría absoluta (RAC1)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 15 November 2010. Archived from the original on 19 November 2010. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  25. "CiU gana por el desplome de ERC". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 November 2010. Archived from the original on 18 November 2010. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  26. "Ligera recuperación del PSC mientras ERC sigue bajando (El Periódico)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 15 November 2010. Archived from the original on 19 January 2011. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  27. "Desplome de ERC". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 22 November 2010.
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Other
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