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Constituency projections for the 2021 German federal election

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2021 German federal election
Concurrent state elections

Direct mandates

Graphic of possible distribution of direct mandates
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
Source Date Union SPD AfD Linke Grüne FDP
2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021 143 121 16 3 16 0
Wahlkreisprognose 24 September 2021 143 143 4 4 5 0
election.de 24 September 2021 144 131 12 5 7 0
Wahlkreisprognose 21 September 2021 139 141 4 4 11 0
INSA 20 September 2021 90 182 14 2 11 0
election.de 17 September 2021 134 138 14 5 8 0
Wahlkreisprognose 16 September 2021 98 180 8 4 9 0
INSA 13 September 2021 75 200 10 3 11 0
election.de 10 September 2021 131 137 18 5 8 0
Wahlkreisprognose 8 September 2021 84 198 8 4 5 0
INSA 6 September 2021 84 198 13 3 11 0
election.de 3 September 2021 153 106 16 6 18 0
Wahlkreisprognose 31 August 2021 82 194 9 4 10 0
INSA 30 August 2021 77 192 6 3 21 0
election.de 27 August 2021 181 81 13 5 19 0
INSA 23 August 2021 126 149 5 3 16 0
election.de 20 August 2021 201 61 8 4 25 0
Wahlkreisprognose 18 August 2021 135 126 7 4 27 0
INSA 16 August 2021 175 99 0 3 22 0
election.de 13 August 2021 213 51 5 4 26 0
Wahlkreisprognose 12 August 2021 153 108 4 4 30 0
INSA 9 August 2021 200 64 4 3 28 0
election.de 6 August 2021 223 47 4 4 21 0
Wahlkreisprognose 4 August 2021 168 99 4 4 24 0
INSA 2 August 2021 211 60 1 3 24 0
election.de 30 July 2021 233 37 4 3 22 0
INSA 26 July 2021 194 60 22 3 20 0
election.de 23 July 2021 233 37 3 4 22 0
Wahlkreisprognose 20 July 2021 206 70 3 4 16 0
INSA 19 July 2021 239 32 5 2 21 0
INSA 12 July 2021 231 42 4 3 19 0
election.de 9 July 2021 229 37 3 4 26 0
INSA 5 July 2021 240 32 2 3 22 0
Wahlkreisprognose 30 June 2021 215 59 7 4 14 0
INSA 28 June 2021 243 29 2 4 21 0
election.de 25 June 2021 220 33 4 3 39 0
INSA 21 June 2021 242 25 4 3 25 0
Wahlkreisprognose 15 June 2021 224 57 3 4 11 0
INSA 14 June 2021 215 47 1 3 33 0
election.de 11 June 2021 205 36 6 3 49 0
INSA 7 June 2021 220 32 4 3 40 0
election.de 4 June 2021 187 42 8 3 59 0
INSA 31 May 2021 198 46 2 3 50 0
INSA 25 May 2021 204 42 3 3 47 0
Wahlkreisprognose 23 May 2021 145 82 9 4 58 1
election.de 21 May 2021 180 45 8 3 63 0
INSA 17 May 2021 183 47 15 3 51 0
INSA 10 May 2021 204 28 9 3 55 0
election.de 7 May 2021 166 47 20 4 62 0
INSA 4 May 2021 167 43 20 4 65 0
INSA 27 April 2021 169 53 8 3 66 0
election.de 23 April 2021 198 42 14 3 42 0
INSA 20 April 2021 215 39 4 3 38 0
Wahlkreisprognose 14 April 2021 177 62 6 5 49 0
INSA 13 April 2021 202 42 15 3 37 0
election.de 9 April 2021 209 49 8 3 30 0
INSA 6 April 2021 204 51 1 3 40 0
INSA 30 March 2021 184 57 14 3 41 0
INSA 23 March 2021 203 57 6 3 30 0
Wahlkreisprognose 20 March 2021 182 76 4 7 30 0
election.de 19 March 2021 235 43 4 4 13 0
INSA 16 March 2021 231 41 8 3 16 0
INSA 9 March 2021 240 36 4 3 16 0
INSA 2 March 2021 250 34 0 3 12 0
INSA 23 February 2021 268 16 1 3 11 0
election.de 17 February 2021 269 18 1 3 8 0
INSA 15 February 2021 262 24 0 3 10 0
INSA 9 February 2021 279 7 0 3 10 0
INSA 2 February 2021 286 4 0 2 7 0
Wahlkreisprognose 2 February 2021 244 40 4 3 8 0
election.de 27 January 2021 276 12 1 3 7 0
INSA 26 January 2021 278 12 0 1 8 0
INSA 19 January 2021 283 2 1 3 10 0
INSA 12 January 2021 284 5 0 2 8 0
INSA 5 January 2021 283 4 1 3 8 0
INSA 22 December 2020 271 18 1 2 7 0
election.de 15 December 2020 276 12 1 3 7 0
INSA 15 December 2020 268 21 1 2 7 0
INSA 8 December 2020 282 4 0 3 10 0
INSA 1 December 2020 281 5 1 4 8 0
INSA 24 November 2020 283 4 1 3 8 0
election.de 19 November 2020 276 12 1 3 7 0
INSA 17 November 2020 285 4 0 3 7 0
INSA 10 November 2020 280 6 0 3 10 0
INSA 3 November 2020 276 4 3 4 12 0
Wahlkreisprognose 3 November 2020 240 42 4 4 9 0
INSA 27 October 2020 287 2 0 2 8 0
INSA 20 October 2020 283 4 0 3 9 0
election.de 15 October 2020 272 14 1 3 9 0
INSA 13 October 2020 281 3 0 3 12 0
Wahlkreisprognose 9 October 2020 233 36 3 4 23 0
INSA 6 October 2020 286 2 0 2 9 0
INSA 29 September 2020 274 9 1 2 13 0
INSA 22 September 2020 283 5 0 3 8 0
election.de 21 September 2020 277 11 1 3 7 0
Wahlkreisprognose 18 September 2020 229 47 8 5 10 0
INSA 15 September 2020 282 6 1 3 7 0
INSA 8 September 2020 279 8 0 3 9 0
Wahlkreisprognose 6 September 2020 233 47 7 4 8 0
INSA 1 September 2020 280 7 1 3 8 0
INSA 25 August 2020 279 10 0 3 7 0
election.de 23 August 2020 283 7 1 4 4 0
INSA 18 August 2020 268 21 0 3 7 0
Wahlkreisprognose 17 August 2020 230 56 5 4 4 0
INSA 11 August 2020 284 5 1 4 5 0
Wahlkreisprognose 11 August 2020 233 52 6 4 4 0
INSA 4 August 2020 288 2 0 3 6 0
INSA 28 July 2020 287 4 0 2 6 0
INSA 21 July 2020 285 5 0 4 5 0
election.de 16 July 2020 286 4 1 4 4 0
INSA 14 July 2020 285 3 0 3 8 0
Wahlkreisprognose 14 July 2020 268 24 1 2 4 0
INSA 7 July 2020 284 3 1 5 6 0
INSA 30 June 2020 284 4 1 3 7 0
INSA 23 June 2020 285 2 0 3 9 0
election.de 14 June 2020 288 4 0 4 3 0
Wahlkreisprognose 12 June 2020 266 24 3 1 5 0
INSA 9 June 2020 287 2 0 3 7 0
INSA 3 June 2020 287 1 1 3 7 0
Wahlkreisprognose 31 May 2020 242 38 13 1 5 0
INSA 26 May 2020 284 4 0 3 8 0
INSA 19 May 2020 287 3 0 2 7 0
Wahlkreisprognose 13 May 2020 260 27 9 2 1 0
INSA 12 May 2020 287 2 1 3 6 0
election.de 12 May 2020 288 4 1 4 2 0
Wahlkreisprognose 6 May 2020 267 21 8 1 2 0
INSA 5 May 2020 286 3 0 3 7 0
Wahlkreisprognose 30 April 2020 249 44 4 1 1 0
INSA 28 April 2020 288 3 1 2 5 0
Wahlkreisprognose 23 April 2020 234 57 3 5 0 0
INSA 21 April 2020 288 2 0 3 6 0
INSA 15 April 2020 288 2 0 3 6 0
Wahlkreisprognose 9 April 2020 243 54 0 1 1 0
election.de 8 April 2020 266 20 1 3 9 0
INSA 7 April 2020 287 2 1 4 5 0
INSA 31 March 2020 283 2 3 3 8 0
Wahlkreisprognose 27 March 2020 227 59 6 4 3 0
INSA 24 March 2020 266 8 1 3 21 0
Wahlkreisprognose 19 March 2020 206 64 18 7 4 0
INSA 17 March 2020 229 16 7 3 44 0
INSA 10 March 2020 191 36 22 3 47 0
election.de 10 March 2020 187 49 19 5 39 0
INSA 3 March 2020 192 45 4 7 51 0
Wahlkreisprognose 2 March 2020 153 54 31 7 54 0
INSA 25 February 2020 199 27 17 11 45 0
INSA 18 February 2020 192 25 32 12 38 0
election.de 11 February 2020 215 29 17 5 33 0
INSA 11 February 2020 216 7 25 7 44 0
INSA 4 February 2020 236 10 7 3 43 0
INSA 28 January 2020 204 21 32 4 38 0
INSA 21 January 2020 216 7 32 5 39 0
election.de 14 January 2020 216 28 19 4 32 0
Wahlkreisprognose 10 January 2020 186 29 30 5 39 0
INSA 7 January 2020 237 6 16 3 37 0
INSA 23 December 2019 237 14 4 3 41 0
election.de 17 December 2019 215 29 19 4 32 0
INSA 10 December 2019 220 19 20 3 37 0
INSA 26 November 2019 212 27 4 4 52 0
INSA 19 November 2019 190 44 15 3 47 0
election.de 19 November 2019 190 50 22 5 32 0
INSA 12 November 2019 177 40 34 6 42 0
INSA 5 November 2019 208 22 18 5 46 0
INSA 29 October 2019 192 18 30 4 55 0
INSA 22 October 2019 215 16 17 3 48 0
INSA 15 October 2019 226 18 11 3 41 0
election.de 14 October 2019 214 27 19 3 36 0
INSA 1 October 2019 223 18 6 3 49 0
INSA 24 September 2019 198 26 24 3 48 0
election.de 17 September 2019 209 34 18 3 35 0
INSA 17 September 2019 202 19 30 3 45 0
INSA 10 September 2019 215 14 23 3 44 0
INSA 3 September 2019 195 25 27 2 50 0
INSA 27 August 2019 206 14 17 2 60 0
election.de 21 August 2019 208 27 16 3 45 0
INSA 20 August 2019 208 18 4 3 66 0
INSA 13 August 2019 221 6 20 3 49 0
INSA 6 August 2019 221 5 17 5 51 0
INSA 30 July 2019 218 14 4 4 59 0
INSA 23 July 2019 243 5 5 3 43 0
election.de 17 July 2019 197 31 17 3 51 0
INSA 16 July 2019 197 21 16 3 62 0
INSA 9 July 2019 221 21 3 4 50 0
INSA 2 July 2019 208 15 17 4 55 0
Wahlkreisprognose 27 June 2019 142 37 34 4 82 0
INSA 25 June 2019 194 14 22 5 64 0
INSA 18 June 2019 180 23 25 10 61 0
INSA 11 June 2019 177 25 25 4 68 0
election.de 7 June 2019 207 35 17 3 37 0
INSA 4 June 2019 205 22 4 3 65 0
Wahlkreisprognose 4 June 2019 155 22 26 6 90 0
INSA 21 May 2019 224 32 15 4 24 0
election.de 17 May 2019 225 42 11 5 16 0
INSA 14 May 2019 232 36 3 4 24 0
INSA 7 May 2019 218 32 14 5 30 0
INSA 30 April 2019 219 46 3 3 28 0
election.de 16 April 2019 234 41 8 5 11 0
INSA 16 April 2019 246 28 1 4 20 0
INSA 2 April 2019 241 34 4 3 17 0
INSA 26 March 2019 250 22 9 5 13 0
election.de 20 March 2019 243 34 8 5 9 0
INSA 19 March 2019 236 28 7 10 18 0
INSA 12 March 2019 259 17 2 5 16 0
INSA 5 March 2019 225 55 4 5 10 0
INSA 26 February 2019 220 64 1 4 10 0
INSA 19 February 2019 230 51 5 4 9 0
election.de 13 February 2019 242 31 9 5 12 0
INSA 12 February 2019 239 31 2 5 22 0
INSA 5 February 2019 242 18 14 5 20 0
INSA 29 January 2019 244 16 4 15 20 0
INSA 22 January 2019 263 7 4 5 20 0
election.de 17 January 2019 240 26 12 5 16 0
INSA 15 January 2019 228 18 24 9 20 0
INSA 8 January 2019 238 18 20 7 16 0
election.de 18 December 2018 240 27 11 5 16 0
INSA 18 December 2018 250 20 4 5 20 0
INSA 11 December 2018 243 30 3 5 18 0
INSA 4 December 2018 235 15 19 10 20 0
election.de 29 November 2018 205 38 25 6 25 0
INSA 27 November 2018 221 24 22 5 27 0
INSA 20 November 2018 200 32 25 5 37 0
INSA 13 November 2018 197 31 29 6 36 0
INSA 6 November 2018 204 29 21 12 33 0
INSA 30 October 2018 206 33 14 5 41 0
election.de 24 October 2018 189 47 32 6 23 0
INSA 23 October 2018 213 37 12 5 32 0
election.de 17 October 2018 205 60 23 5 6 0
INSA 16 October 2018 205 35 27 13 19 0
INSA 9 October 2018 200 61 24 4 10 0
INSA 25 September 2018 205 47 27 12 8 0
election.de 13 September 2018 213 61 17 5 3 0
INSA 11 September 2018 214 58 13 9 5 0
INSA 3 September 2018 237 38 13 5 6 0
INSA 28 August 2018 236 46 7 5 5 0
INSA 21 August 2018 235 40 8 10 6 0
election.de 16 August 2018 213 61 17 5 3 0
INSA 14 August 2018 229 57 4 4 5 0
INSA 7 August 2018 232 55 4 4 4 0
INSA 31 July 2018 218 61 9 8 3 0
INSA 24 July 2018 227 60 3 4 5 0
election.de 18 July 2018 214 60 17 5 3 0
INSA 16 July 2018 241 40 9 5 4 0
INSA 9 July 2018 236 50 4 5 4 0
INSA 2 July 2018 221 65 3 5 5 0
INSA 25 June 2018 214 67 7 8 3 0
INSA 18 June 2018 211 61 6 16 5 0
election.de 15 June 2018 229 59 4 5 2 0
INSA 11 June 2018 244 35 8 9 3 0
INSA 4 June 2018 261 29 1 4 4 0
INSA 28 May 2018 256 31 4 4 4 0
election.de 24 May 2018 240 49 4 4 2 0
election.de 23 April 2018 239 48 4 5 3 0
INSA 23 April 2018 240 48 2 4 5 0
election.de 20 March 2018 237 51 4 5 2 0
election.de 16 February 2018 230 54 7 5 3 0
election.de 19 January 2018 240 49 2 5 3 0
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 231 59 3 5 1 0

By probability

Source Date Union SPD AfD Linke Grüne
Safe Likely Lean Safe Likely Lean Safe Likely Lean Safe Likely Lean Safe Likely Lean
election.de 24 September 2021 30 49 65 25 52 54 0 3 9 1 2 2 0 2 5
election.de 17 September 2021 25 48 61 28 54 56 0 4 10 1 2 2 0 2 6
election.de 10 September 2021 27 47 57 28 52 57 0 6 12 1 2 2 0 3 5
election.de 3 September 2021 41 62 50 12 45 49 0 3 13 1 2 3 0 3 15
election.de 27 August 2021 51 73 57 5 40 36 0 3 10 1 2 2 1 2 16
election.de 20 August 2021 52 81 68 3 25 33 0 2 6 1 2 1 1 4 20
election.de 13 August 2021 60 91 62 2 21 28 0 1 4 1 1 2 1 4 21
election.de 6 August 2021 79 93 51 2 13 32 0 1 3 1 1 2 1 4 16
election.de 30 July 2021 85 98 50 1 11 25 0 1 3 1 1 1 1 4 17
election.de 23 July 2021 86 97 50 1 11 25 0 1 2 1 1 2 1 4 17
election.de 9 July 2021 83 98 48 1 11 25 0 1 2 1 1 2 1 4 21
election.de 25 June 2021 70 97 53 1 11 21 0 1 3 1 1 1 4 14 21
election.de 11 June 2021 55 87 63 1 12 23 0 2 4 1 2 0 5 22 22
election.de 4 June 2021 45 75 67 2 14 26 0 2 6 1 2 0 6 25 28
election.de 21 May 2021 38 71 71 2 17 26 0 2 6 1 2 0 6 27 30
election.de 7 May 2021 38 66 62 2 22 23 1 3 16 1 2 1 6 27 29
election.de 23 April 2021 61 83 54 2 16 24 0 3 11 2 1 0 3 9 30
election.de 9 April 2021 63 84 62 2 21 26 0 2 6 2 1 0 3 5 22
election.de 19 March 2021 107 71 57 2 11 30 0 1 3 2 1 1 1 4 8
election.de 17 February 2021 152 84 33 0 3 15 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 6
election.de 27 January 2021 166 78 32 0 2 10 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 5
election.de 15 December 2020 167 76 33 0 2 10 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 5
election.de 19 November 2020 164 80 32 0 2 10 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 5
election.de 15 October 2020 156 81 35 0 2 12 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 7
election.de 21 September 2020 168 79 30 0 2 9 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 5
election.de 23 August 2020 178 73 32 0 2 5 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 2 2
election.de 16 July 2020 187 72 27 0 1 3 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 2 2
election.de 14 June 2020 194 72 22 0 1 3 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 2 1
election.de 12 May 2020 188 71 29 0 2 2 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 1 1
election.de 8 April 2020 151 62 53 1 2 17 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 7
election.de 10 March 2020 56 82 49 2 16 31 1 3 15 2 1 2 4 11 24
election.de 11 February 2020 75 80 60 1 7 21 0 3 14 2 1 2 3 8 22
election.de 14 January 2020 79 75 62 1 4 23 0 4 15 2 1 1 2 9 21
election.de 17 December 2019 78 78 59 1 7 21 0 4 15 2 1 1 1 7 24
election.de 19 November 2019 65 76 49 2 17 31 1 3 18 2 1 2 0 9 23
election.de 14 October 2019 71 80 63 1 6 20 1 3 15 2 1 0 3 14 19
election.de 17 September 2019 58 68 83 1 4 29 0 2 16 1 2 0 2 5 28
election.de 21 August 2019 59 63 86 1 2 24 0 2 14 2 1 0 4 10 31
election.de 17 July 2019 49 62 86 1 4 26 0 3 14 2 1 0 5 16 30
election.de 7 June 2019 58 66 83 1 4 30 0 2 15 2 1 0 2 6 29
election.de 17 May 2019 70 74 81 1 6 35 0 1 10 2 1 2 2 3 11
election.de 16 April 2019 75 76 83 1 4 36 0 1 7 2 1 2 2 2 7
election.de 20 March 2019 84 80 79 0 4 30 0 1 7 2 1 2 2 2 5
election.de 13 February 2019 86 75 81 0 3 28 0 1 8 2 1 2 2 2 8
election.de 17 January 2019 90 73 77 0 2 24 0 1 11 2 1 2 2 2 12
election.de 18 December 2018 89 74 77 0 2 25 0 1 10 2 1 2 2 2 12
election.de 29 November 2018 63 67 75 1 4 33 1 3 21 1 2 3 3 3 19
election.de 24 October 2018 58 71 60 1 6 42 1 5 26 2 1 3 3 3 17
election.de 17 October 2018 71 52 82 2 6 52 1 2 20 1 1 3 0 2 4
election.de 13 September 2018 122 28 63 5 18 38 1 2 14 3 1 1 0 1 2
election.de 16 August 2018 123 26 64 5 18 38 1 2 14 3 1 1 0 1 2
election.de 18 July 2018 142 30 42 13 16 31 3 1 13 4 0 1 0 0 3
election.de 15 June 2018 118 54 57 2 17 40 0 1 3 2 2 1 0 0 2
election.de 24 May 2018 130 59 51 2 12 35 0 1 3 2 2 0 0 0 2
election.de 23 April 2018 128 61 50 2 12 34 0 1 3 2 2 1 0 0 3
election.de 20 March 2018 127 59 51 2 13 36 0 1 3 2 2 1 0 0 2
election.de 16 February 2018 118 57 55 2 14 38 0 1 6 2 2 1 0 0 3
election.de 19 January 2018 128 63 49 2 12 35 0 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 3
2017 federal election 24 September 2017 231 59 3 5 1

Second place

Source Date Union SPD AfD Linke Grüne
election.de 24 September 2021 130 113 11 1 44
election.de 17 September 2021 128 118 13 2 38
election.de 10 September 2021 129 115 8 2 45
election.de 3 September 2021 111 117 11 2 58
election.de 27 August 2021 96 124 15 4 60
election.de 20 August 2021 82 125 21 6 65
election.de 13 August 2021 73 121 26 7 72
election.de 6 August 2021 66 120 31 5 77
election.de 30 July 2021 57 121 30 6 84
election.de 23 July 2021 56 120 31 9 83
election.de 9 July 2021 59 121 30 7 82
election.de 25 June 2021 63 93 29 10 104
election.de 11 June 2021 74 84 27 11 103
election.de 4 June 2021 88 80 26 9 96
election.de 21 May 2021 93 77 26 10 93
election.de 7 May 2021 105 75 18 7 94
election.de 23 April 2021 83 91 25 12 88
election.de 9 April 2021 72 102 29 10 86
election.de 19 March 2021 55 123 30 11 80
election.de 17 February 2021 25 147 30 15 82
election.de 27 January 2021 18 150 30 15 86
election.de 15 December 2020 18 153 33 12 83
election.de 19 November 2020 18 148 33 12 88
election.de 15 October 2020 22 141 29 15 92
election.de 21 September 2020 17 151 33 12 86
election.de 23 August 2020 14 155 33 11 86
election.de 16 July 2020 11 155 34 12 87
election.de 14 June 2020 9 155 27 19 89
election.de 12 May 2020 9 170 33 11 76
election.de 8 April 2020 30 141 33 12 83
election.de 10 March 2020 91 82 25 13 88
election.de 11 February 2020 69 87 31 12 100
election.de 14 January 2020 71 85 35 7 101
election.de 17 December 2019 72 94 33 8 92
election.de 19 November 2019 91 90 27 10 81
election.de 14 October 2019 71 84 38 5 101
election.de 17 September 2019 74 88 38 5 94
election.de 21 August 2019 75 77 32 9 106
election.de 17 July 2019 85 71 31 10 102
election.de 7 June 2019 78 86 29 9 97
election.de 17 May 2019 64 120 30 9 76
election.de 16 April 2019 55 123 30 11 80
election.de 20 March 2019 50 127 36 9 77
election.de 13 February 2019 50 123 33 12 81
election.de 17 January 2019 53 114 37 9 86
election.de 18 December 2018 53 116 39 7 84
election.de 29 November 2018 79 102 36 4 78
election.de 24 October 2018 93 102 34 5 65
election.de 17 October 2018 88 132 46 2 31
election.de 13 September 2018 81 158 44 2 14
election.de 16 August 2018 81 159 43 2 14
election.de 18 July 2018 80 159 44 2 14
election.de 15 June 2018 67 175 40 7 10
election.de 24 May 2018 57 183 44 6 9
election.de 23 April 2018 59 179 39 8 14
election.de 20 March 2018 60 184 43 7 5
election.de 16 February 2018 66 169 39 9 16
election.de 19 January 2018 57 181 32 13 16
2017 federal election 24 September 2017 66 185 33 10 5

See also

External links

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