Moving-average model

(Redirected from Moving average process) Time series model Not to be confused with Moving average.

In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable.

Together with the autoregressive (AR) model, the moving-average model is a special case and key component of the more general ARMA and ARIMA models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure. Contrary to the AR model, the finite MA model is always stationary.

The moving-average model should not be confused with the moving average, a distinct concept despite some similarities.

Definition

The notation MA(q) refers to the moving average model of order q:

X_{t}=\mu +\varepsilon _{t}+\theta _{1}\varepsilon _{t-1}+\cdots +\theta _{q}\varepsilon _{t-q}=\mu +\sum _{i=1}^{q}\theta _{i}\varepsilon _{t-i}+\varepsilon _{t},

where $\mu$ is the mean of the series, the $\theta _{1},...,\theta _{q}$ are the coefficients of the model and $\varepsilon _{t},\varepsilon _{t-1},...,\varepsilon _{t-q}$ are the error terms. The value of q is called the order of the MA model. This can be equivalently written in terms of the backshift operator B as

X_{t}=\mu +(1+\theta _{1}B+\cdots +\theta _{q}B^{q})\varepsilon _{t}.

Thus, a moving-average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of the series against current and previous (observed) white noise error terms or random shocks. The random shocks at each point are assumed to be mutually independent and to come from the same distribution, typically a normal distribution, with location at zero and constant scale.

Interpretation

The moving-average model is essentially a finite impulse response filter applied to white noise, with some additional interpretation placed on it. The role of the random shocks in the MA model differs from their role in the autoregressive (AR) model in two ways. First, they are propagated to future values of the time series directly: for example, $\varepsilon _{t-1}$ appears directly on the right side of the equation for $X_{t}$ . In contrast, in an AR model $\varepsilon _{t-1}$ does not appear on the right side of the $X_{t}$ equation, but it does appear on the right side of the $X_{t-1}$ equation, and $X_{t-1}$ appears on the right side of the $X_{t}$ equation, giving only an indirect effect of $\varepsilon _{t-1}$ on $X_{t}$ . Second, in the MA model a shock affects $X$ values only for the current period and q periods into the future; in contrast, in the AR model a shock affects $X$ values infinitely far into the future, because $\varepsilon _{t}$ affects $X_{t}$ , which affects $X_{t+1}$ , which affects $X_{t+2}$ , and so on forever (see Impulse response).

Fitting the model

Fitting a moving-average model is generally more complicated than fitting an autoregressive model. This is because the lagged error terms are not observable. This means that iterative non-linear fitting procedures need to be used in place of linear least squares. Moving average models are linear combinations of past white noise terms, while autoregressive models are linear combinations of past time series values. ARMA models are more complicated than pure AR and MA models, as they combine both autoregressive and moving average components.

The autocorrelation function (ACF) of an MA(q) process is zero at lag q + 1 and greater. Therefore, we determine the appropriate maximum lag for the estimation by examining the sample autocorrelation function to see where it becomes insignificantly different from zero for all lags beyond a certain lag, which is designated as the maximum lag q.

Sometimes the ACF and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) will suggest that an MA model would be a better model choice and sometimes both AR and MA terms should be used in the same model (see Box–Jenkins method).

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are an alternative to segmented regression that can also be used for fitting a moving-average model.

References

^ Shumway, Robert H.; Stoffer, David S. (19 April 2017). Time series analysis and its applications : with R examples. Springer. ISBN 978-3-319-52451-1. OCLC 966563984.
"2.1 Moving Average Models (MA models) | STAT 510". PennState: Statistics Online Courses. Retrieved 2023-02-27.
Shumway, Robert H.; Stoffer, David S. (2019-05-17), "ARIMA Models", Time Series: A Data Analysis Approach Using R, Boca Raton : CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, 2019.: Chapman and Hall/CRC, pp. 99–128, doi:10.1201/9780429273285-5, ISBN 978-0-429-27328-5, retrieved 2023-02-27{{citation}}: CS1 maint: location (link)
Box, George E. P.; Jenkins, Gwilym M.; Reinsel, Gregory C.; Ljung, Greta M. (2016). Time series analysis : forecasting and control (5th ed.). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated. p. 53. ISBN 978-1-118-67492-5. OCLC 908107438.
^ "Autoregressive Moving Average ARMA(p, q) Models for Time Series Analysis - Part 1 | QuantStart". www.quantstart.com. Retrieved 2023-02-27.
"Autoregressive Moving Average ARMA(p, q) Models for Time Series Analysis - Part 2 | QuantStart". www.quantstart.com. Retrieved 2023-02-27.
Schaffer, Andrea L.; Dobbins, Timothy A.; Pearson, Sallie-Anne (2021-03-22). "Interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models: a guide for evaluating large-scale health interventions". BMC Medical Research Methodology. 21 (1): 58. doi:10.1186/s12874-021-01235-8. ISSN 1471-2288. PMC 7986567. PMID 33752604.

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Common approaches to univariate time series

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Discrete time	Bernoulli process Branching process Chinese restaurant process Galton–Watson process Independent and identically distributed random variables Markov chain Moran process Random walk Loop-erased Self-avoiding Biased Maximal entropy
Continuous time	Additive process Bessel process Birth–death process pure birth Brownian motion Bridge Excursion Fractional Geometric Meander Cauchy process Contact process Continuous-time random walk Cox process Diffusion process Dyson Brownian motion Empirical process Feller process Fleming–Viot process Gamma process Geometric process Hawkes process Hunt process Interacting particle systems Itô diffusion Itô process Jump diffusion Jump process Lévy process Local time Markov additive process McKean–Vlasov process Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process Poisson process Compound Non-homogeneous Schramm–Loewner evolution Semimartingale Sigma-martingale Stable process Superprocess Telegraph process Variance gamma process Wiener process Wiener sausage
Both	Branching process Gaussian process Hidden Markov model (HMM) Markov process Martingale Differences Local Sub- Super- Random dynamical system Regenerative process Renewal process Stochastic chains with memory of variable length White noise
Fields and other	Dirichlet process Gaussian random field Gibbs measure Hopfield model Ising model Potts model Boolean network Markov random field Percolation Pitman–Yor process Point process Cox Poisson Random field Random graph
Time series models	Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model Autoregressive (AR) model Autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) model Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model Moving-average (MA) model
Financial models	Binomial options pricing model Black–Derman–Toy Black–Karasinski Black–Scholes Chan–Karolyi–Longstaff–Sanders (CKLS) Chen Constant elasticity of variance (CEV) Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) Garman–Kohlhagen Heath–Jarrow–Morton (HJM) Heston Ho–Lee Hull–White Korn-Kreer-Lenssen LIBOR market Rendleman–Bartter SABR volatility Vašíček Wilkie
Actuarial models	Bühlmann Cramér–Lundberg Risk process Sparre–Anderson
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Inequalities	Burkholder–Davis–Gundy Doob's martingale Doob's upcrossing Kunita–Watanabe Marcinkiewicz–Zygmund
Tools	Cameron–Martin formula Convergence of random variables Doléans-Dade exponential Doob decomposition theorem Doob–Meyer decomposition theorem Doob's optional stopping theorem Dynkin's formula Feynman–Kac formula Filtration Girsanov theorem Infinitesimal generator Itô integral Itô's lemma Karhunen–Loève theorem Kolmogorov continuity theorem Kolmogorov extension theorem Lévy–Prokhorov metric Malliavin calculus Martingale representation theorem Optional stopping theorem Prokhorov's theorem Quadratic variation Reflection principle Skorokhod integral Skorokhod's representation theorem Skorokhod space Snell envelope Stochastic differential equation Tanaka Stopping time Stratonovich integral Uniform integrability Usual hypotheses Wiener space Classical Abstract
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Time series models

Misplaced Pages

Definition

Interpretation

Fitting the model

See also

References

Further reading

External links