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Opinion polling for the 2016 Australian federal election

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See also: Pre-election pendulum for the 2016 Australian federal election


2016 Australian federal election
National results
State and territory results
Main article: 2016 Australian federal election

Several research and polling firms conducted polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the 2016 Australian federal election on 2 July in relation to voting intention for the Australian House of Representatives (lower house) and leader ratings. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election.

Every federal election after 1961 has been won by the grouping that also won the majority of federal seats in New South Wales. Unusually, in the upcoming election nearly half of all marginal government seats are in NSW; of these, nearly half are in Western Sydney and half are in rural and regional areas. No more than a few government seats in each other state are marginal.

Assuming a theoretical uniform swing, for the Labor opposition to get to 76 seats and majority government would require at least 50.5 percent of the two-party vote (a 4.0-point two-party swing or greater), while for the incumbent Coalition to lose majority government would require 50.2 percent of the two-party vote (a 3.3-point two-party swing or greater).

Graphical aggregate of national voting intention polling

Two-party-preferred vote.Primary vote.Graphs are a compilation of aggregate data from voting intention in the below list of all opinion polling for the 2016 federal election. A moving average is shown in a solid line.

Federal two-party-preferred polling aggregates by state

The table below published by The Poll Bludger sets out the final release of federal two-party-preferred polling aggregates by state/territory (and swings since the previous election).

Two-party-preferred % polling aggregates by state
State (seats) L/NP 2PP ALP 2PP L/NP swing
New South Wales (47) 51.3 48.7 –3.1
Victoria (37) 47.6 52.4 –2.2
Queensland (30) 52.7 47.3 –4.3
Western Australia (16) 54.2 45.8 –4.1
South Australia (11) 53.8 46.2 +1.4
Tasmania (5) 47.3 52.7 –1.4
ACT & NT (4) 40.4 59.6 –2.7
Australia (150) 50.9 49.1 –2.6

Source: BludgerTrack 1 Jul 2016: Poll Bludger – Methodology – State 2PP history

National polling

Voting intention

Date Firm Primary vote 2PP vote Sample size Margin of error Method
L/NP ALP GRN OTH L/NP ALP
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016 Newspoll 42% 35% 10% 13% 50.5% 49.5% 4,135 ? Landline
30 Jun 2016 ReachTEL 42.8% 34.6% 10.7% 12% 51% 49% 2,084 ? Telephone (random)
27–30 Jun 2016 Essential 42.5% 34.5% 11.5% 12% 50.5% 49.5% 1,212 ±3 Online (members)
28–29 Jun 2016 Galaxy 43% 36% 10% 11% 51% 49% 1,768 ? Landline
26–29 Jun 2016 Ipsos 40% 33% 13% 14% 50% 50% 1,377 ? Telephone (random)
23–26 Jun 2016 Essential 39% 37% 10% 14% 49% 51% 1,773 ±3 Online (members)
23–26 Jun 2016 Newspoll 43% 36% 9% 12% 51% 49% 1,713 ±3 Landline
23 Jun 2016 ReachTEL 42.3% 33.7% 10.5% 13.3% 51% 49% 2,349 ? Telephone (random)
20–22 Jun 2016 Galaxy 42% 35% 11% 12% 50% 50% ? ? Landline
16–19 Jun 2016 Essential 40% 37% 10% 13% 49% 51% 1,013 ±3 Online (members)
16–19 Jun 2016 Newspoll 41% 36% 10% 13% 50% 50% 1,805 ±3 Landline
16 Jun 2016 ReachTEL 43.5% 33.6% 9.1% 13.7% 51% 49% 2,576 ? Telephone (random)
14–16 Jun 2016 Ipsos 39% 33% 14% 14% 49% 51% 1,437 ? Telephone (random)
9–12 Jun 2016 Essential 41% 37% 10% 12% 49% 51% 1,784 ±3 Online (members)
9 Jun 2016 ReachTEL 42.7% 33.2% 9.9% 14.3% 50% 50% 2,175 ? Telephone (random)
2–5 Jun 2016 Essential 41% 36% 10% 13% 50% 50% 1,772 ±3 Online (members)
2–5 Jun 2016 Newspoll 40% 35% 10% 15% 50% 50% 1,867 ±3 Landline
2 Jun 2016 ReachTEL 41.5% 34.9% 10.1% 13.5% 50% 50% 2,414 ? Telephone (random)
31 May – 2 Jun 2016 Ipsos 42% 36% 13% 9% 49% 51% 1,359 ±2.7 Telephone (random)
26–29 May 2016 Essential 41% 35% 9% 15% 51% 49% 1,767 ±3 Online (members)
21–22, 28–29 May 2016 Morgan 37.5% 32.5% 13% 17% 49% 51% 3,099 ±1 In person and SMS
26 May 2016 ReachTEL 41.1% 36.5% 9.6% 12.8% 48% 52% 2,700 ? Telephone (random)
19–22 May 2016 Essential 41% 37% 9% 13% 49% 51% 1,794 ±3 Online (members)
19–22 May 2016 Newspoll 41% 36% 11% 12% 49% 51% ? ±3 Landline
19 May 2016 ReachTEL 42.6% 36.6% 9.9% 10.9% 50% 50% 2,407 ? Telephone (random)
17–19 May 2016 Ipsos 43% 34% 14% 9% 51% 49% 1,497 ±2.5 Telephone (random)
14–15 May 2016 Morgan 36.5% 33% 15.5% 15% 47.5% 52.5% 2,318 ±1 In person and SMS
12–15 May 2016 Essential 42% 38% 9% 11% 49% 51% 1,784 ±3 Online (members)
6–8 May 2016 Lonergan 42% 35% 12% 10% 50% 50% 1,841 ? Landline and mobile
5–8 May 2016 Essential 42% 38% 10% 10% 49% 51% 1,754 ±3 Online (members)
9 May 2016 2016 Federal Election campaign begins
5–8 May 2016 Newspoll 41% 37% 11% 11% 49% 51% ? ±3 Landline
5–7 May 2016 Ipsos 44% 33% 14% 9% 51% 49% 1,410 ±2.6 Telephone (random)
4–6 May 2016 Galaxy 42% 36% 11% 11% 50% 50% 1,739 ±2.5 ?
5 May 2016 ReachTEL 43.2% 35.1% 9.5% 12.2% 50% 50% 2,450 ? Telephone (random)
27 Apr – 1 May 2016 Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48% 52% 1,753 ±3 Online (members)
23–24, 30 Apr – 1 May 2016 Morgan 40% 32.5% 13.5% 14% 49% 51% 2,951 ±1 In person and SMS
20–24 Apr 2016 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 48% 52% 1,740 ±3 Online (members)
14–17 Apr 2016 Newspoll 41% 36% 11% 12% 49% 51% ? ±3 Landline
13–17 Apr 2016 Essential 42% 36% 11% 11% 50% 50% 1,753 ±3 Online (members)
9–10, 16–17 Apr 2016 Morgan 40.5% 32% 14% 13.5% 50% 50% 3,083 ±1 In person and SMS
14–16 Apr 2016 Ipsos 42% 33% 14% 11% 50% 50% 1,402 ±2.6 Telephone (random)
14 Apr 2016 ReachTEL 43.5% 35.8% 9.8% 10.9% 50% 50% 2,415 ? Telephone (random)
6–10 Apr 2016 Essential 42% 35% 11% 12% 50% 50% 1,792 ±3 Online (members)
31 Mar – 3 Apr 2016 Newspoll 41% 36% 11% 12% 49% 51% ? ±3 Landline
26–27 Mar, 2–3 Apr 2016 Morgan 42% 31% 13% 14% 52.5% 47.5% 3,174 ±1 In person and SMS
21 Mar 2016 ReachTEL 46.6% 34.4% 10.5% 8.6% 52% 48% 3,274 ? Telephone (random)
17–20 Mar 2016 Newspoll 43% 34% 12% 11% 51% 49% ? ±3% Landline
16–20 Mar 2016 Essential 43% 38% 10% 9% 50% 50% 1,790 ±3 Online (members)
12–13, 19–20 Mar 2016 Morgan 40% 33% 14% 13% 49.5% 50.5% 2,948 ±1 In person and SMS
10–12 Mar 2016 Ipsos 45% 31% 14% 10% 53% 47%
3–6 Mar 2016 Newspoll 43% 35% 12% 10% 50% 50%
2–6 Mar 2016 Essential 43% 37% 10% 10% 50% 50%
27–28 Feb, 5–6 Mar 2016 Morgan 43% 29.5% 13% 14.5% 53% 47%
24–28 Feb 2016 Essential 43% 38% 10% 9% 50% 50%
18–21 Feb 2016 Newspoll 43% 35% 12% 10% 50% 50%
17–21 Feb 2016 Essential 44% 35% 10% 11% 52% 48%
13–14, 20–21 Feb 2016 Morgan 43.5% 29.5% 15% 12% 52.5% 47.5%
11–13 Feb 2016 Ipsos 44% 32% 15% 10% 52% 48%
11 Feb 2016 ReachTEL 48.1% 32.8% 10.1% 9% 54% 46%
3–7 Feb 2016 Essential 44% 35% 10% 10% 52% 48%
30–31 Jan, 6–7 Feb 2016 Morgan 43.5% 29% 16% 11.5% 52.5% 47.5%
28–31 Jan 2016 Newspoll 46% 34% 11% 9% 53% 47%
16–17, 23–24 Jan 2016 Morgan 43.5% 28% 15% 13.5% 55% 45%
21 Jan 2016 ReachTEL 48.5% 31.8% 10.8% 9.1% 55% 45%
15–18 Jan 2016 Essential 44% 35% 10% 12% 51% 49%
2–3, 9–10 Jan 2016 Morgan 47% 29% 13% 11% 56% 44%
15 Dec 2015 Essential 45% 35% 10% 10% 52% 48%
5–6, 12–13 Dec 2015 Morgan 48% 27% 14.5% 10.5% 57.5% 42.5%
8 Dec 2015 Essential 44% 36% 11% 10% 51% 49%
4–6 Dec 2015 Newspoll 45% 33% 12% 10% 53% 47%
1 Dec 2015 Essential 44% 35% 11% 10% 51% 49%
21–22, 28–29 Nov 2015 Morgan 46.5% 28.5% 14% 11% 56% 44%
26 Nov 2015 ReachTEL 48.8% 31.1% 11.2% 8.9% 55% 45%
24 Nov 2015 Essential 45% 35% 10% 10% 52% 48%
19–22 Nov 2015 Newspoll 46% 33% 11% 10% 53% 47%
7–8, 14–15 Nov 2015 Morgan 46% 28% 14.5% 11.5% 56% 44%
12–14 Nov 2015 Ipsos 48% 29% 13% 10% 57% 43%
10 Nov 2015 Essential 45% 35% 10% 11% 52% 48%
6–8 Nov 2015 Newspoll 46% 34% 10% 10% 53% 47%
3 Nov 2015 Essential 45% 34% 11% 10% 53% 47%
24–25 Oct, 1 Nov 2015 Morgan 47% 28.5% 14.5% 10% 56.5% 43.5%
27 Oct 2015 Essential 45% 35% 11% 9% 52% 48%
23–25 Oct 2015 Newspoll 45% 35% 11% 9% 52% 48%
22 Oct 2015 ReachTEL 46.7% 33.0% 11.3% 9.1% 53% 47%
20 Oct 2015 Essential 44% 36% 11% 9% 51% 49%
10–11, 17–18 Oct 2015 Morgan 46.5% 27.5% 15.5% 10.5% 56% 44%
15–17 Oct 2015 Ipsos 45% 30% 14% 10% 54% 46%
13 Oct 2015 Essential 44% 36% 10% 10% 51% 49%
9–11 Oct 2015 Newspoll 43% 35% 12% 10% 50% 50%
26–27 Sep, 1–5 Oct 2015 Morgan 47% 27.5% 14% 11.5% 56% 44%
1–4 Oct 2015 Essential 44% 35% 10% 10% 52% 48%
24–28 Sep 2015 Essential 44% 35% 11% 11% 52% 48%
17–21 Sep 2015 Essential 43% 37% 11% 9% 50% 50%
19–20 Sep 2015 Morgan 46% 29.5% 13% 11.5% 55% 45%
17–20 Sep 2015 Newspoll 44% 35% 11% 10% 51% 49%
15–16 Sep 2015 Galaxy 44% 36% 11% 9% 51% 49%
15 Sep 2015 ReachTEL 43.3% 35.9% 11.9% 8.9% 50% 50%
14 Sep 2015 Turnbull replaces Abbott as Liberal leader
12–13 Sep 2015 Morgan 35% 36.5% 16% 12.5% 43% 57%
5–6 Sep 2015 Morgan 36.5% 35.5% 16.5% 11.5% 45% 55%
4–6 Sep 2015 Newspoll 39% 39% 12% 10% 46% 54%
26–30 Aug 2015 Essential 40% 38% 11% 12% 48% 52%
27 Aug 2015 ReachTEL 40.3% 37.5% 13.4% 8.9% 47% 53%
22–23 Aug 2015 Morgan 38.5% 36% 14% 11.5% 45.5% 54.5%
20–23 Aug 2015 Newspoll 38% 39% 13% 10% 46% 54%
13–15 Aug 2015 Ipsos 38% 36% 16% 11% 44% 56%
11–14 Aug 2015 Essential 41% 38% 10% 11% 48% 52%
8–9 Aug 2015 Morgan 36.5% 37% 15.5% 11% 43% 57%
8–9 Aug 2015 Newspoll 39% 39% 13% 9% 46% 54%
4–7 Aug 2015 Essential 40% 39% 11% 9% 47% 53%
6 Aug 2015 ReachTel 40.2% 38.3% 12.8% 8.7% 47% 53%
28–31 Jul 2015 Essential 39% 38% 12% 10% 47% 53%
30 Jul 2015 ReachTel 40.6% 38% 12.9% 8.6% 47% 53%
25–26 Jul 2015 Morgan 39% 35.5% 15% 10.5% 46% 54%
16–19 Jul 2015 Newspoll 40% 39% 12% 9% 47% 53%
14–17 Jul 2015 Essential 41% 38% 11% 11% 48% 52%
11–12 Jul 2015 Morgan 41.5% 34.5% 13.5% 10.5% 49% 51%
4–5 Jul 2015 Newspoll 40% 37% 13% 10% 48% 52%
2–4 Jul 2015 Ipsos 39% 35% 16% 10% 47% 53%
27–28 Jun 2015 Morgan 39% 36% 14% 11% 46.5% 53.5%
16 Jun 2015 Newspoll 40% 34% 14% 12% 49% 51%
16 Jun 2015 Essential 42% 39% 10% 9% 48% 52%
13–14 Jun 2015 Morgan 37.5% 37.5% 13.5% 11.5% 45.5% 54.5%
11–13 Jun 2015 Ipsos 40% 37% 14% 10% 47% 53%
11–13 Jun 2015 Essential 41% 40% 9% 10% 48% 52%
2 Jun 2015 Newspoll 41% 37% 13% 9% 48% 52%
2 Jun 2015 Essential 41% 37% 13% 9% 48% 52%
23–24, 30–31 May 2015 Morgan 41% 37% 13% 9% 47% 53%
26 May 2015 Essential 41% 39% 10% 9% 48% 52%
18 May 2015 Morgan 41.5% 35.5% 12.5% 10.5% 49% 51%
17 May 2015 Ipsos 43% 35% 13% 9% 50% 50%
17 May 2015 Newspoll 40% 37% 12% 11% 47% 53%
13 May 2015 ReachTel 41.1% 38.3% 12.1% 8.6% 47% 53%
7–10 May 2015 Essential 41% 39% 11% 10% 48% 52%
6 May 2015 Di Natale replaces Milne as Greens leader
4 May 2015 Newspoll 39% 35% 12% 14% 48% 52%
4 May 2015 Morgan 40% 37.5% 11.5% 11% 46.5% 53.5%
28 Apr 2015 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 47% 53%
21 Apr 2015 Essential 41% 39% 11% 10% 48% 52%
11–12, 18–19 Apr 2015 Morgan 38.5% 38% 12% 11% 47% 53%
14 Apr 2015 Essential 41% 39% 10% 11% 48% 52%
10–12 Apr 2015 Newspoll 41% 36% 11% 12% 49% 51%
9–11 Apr 2015 Ipsos 39% 38% 13% 9% 46% 54%
28–29 Mar, 3–6 Apr 2015 Morgan 40.5% 36% 12.5% 11% 47% 53%
29 Mar 2015 ReachTEL 39.6% 40.5% 11.5% 8.5% 46% 54%
20–22 Mar 2015 Newspoll 41% 37% 11% 11% 49% 51%
14–15, 21–22 Mar 2015 Morgan 38% 40% 11% 11% 44% 56%
17 Mar 2015 Essential 40% 39% 9% 11% 48% 52%
10 Mar 2015 Essential 40% 40% 9% 11% 47% 53%
7–8 Mar 2015 Newspoll 38% 39% 12% 11% 45% 55%
28 Feb–1, 7–8 Mar 2015 Morgan 39% 38% 12.5% 11.5% 46.5% 53.5%
26–28 Feb 2015 Ipsos 42% 36% 12% 10% 49% 51%
20–22 Feb 2015 Essential 40% 41% 9% 10% 47% 53%
20–22 Feb 2015 Newspoll 38% 38% 12% 12% 47% 53%
6–8 Feb 2015 Newspoll 35% 41% 12% 12% 43% 57%
31 Jan–1, 7–8 Feb 2015 Morgan 35% 41% 12% 12% 42.5% 57.5%
5 Feb 2015 ReachTEL 38.4% 41.4% 11.2% 8.9% 45% 55%
4–5 Feb 2015 Galaxy 36% 43% 11% 10% 43% 57%
28–30 Jan 2015 Galaxy 36% 43% 11% 10% 43% 57%
27 Jan 2015 ReachTEL 39.7% 40.2% 11.3% 8.8% 46% 54%
27 Jan 2015 Essential 39% 41% 9% 11% 46% 54%
20 Jan 2015 Essential 40% 40% 10% 11% 47% 53%
13 Jan 2015 Essential 38% 40% 10% 11% 46% 54%
12 Jan 2015 Morgan 38.5% 38.5% 9.5% 13.5% 45.5% 54.5%
23–27 Dec 2014 Morgan 37.5% 39.5% 12% 11% 43.5% 56.5%
16 Dec 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48% 52%
12–15 Dec 2014 Newspoll 38% 39% 12% 11% 46% 54%
6–7, 13–14 Dec 2014 Morgan 35% 41% 11.5% 12.5% 42.5% 57.5%
4–6 Dec 2014 Ipsos 40% 37% 12% 11% 48% 52%
2–4 Dec 2014 Galaxy 38% 41% 11% 10% 45% 55%
2 Dec 2014 Essential 40% 40% 9% 11% 47% 53%
29–30 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37% 37% 13% 13% 46% 54%
22–23, 29–30 Nov 2014 Morgan 37% 37.5% 12% 11.5% 46.5% 53.5%
25 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 48% 52%
21 Nov 2014 ReachTEL 40.2% 38.7% 11.1% 9.9% 47% 53%
18 Nov 2014 Newspoll 36% 39% 11% 14% 45% 55%
17 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48% 52%
17 Nov 2014 Morgan 38% 38.5% 12% 11.5% 44.5% 55.5%
11 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 13% 48% 52%
4 Nov 2014 Newspoll 38% 36% 13% 13% 46% 54%
4 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48% 52%
25–26 Oct, 1–2 Nov 2014 Morgan 38.5% 37.5% 12.5% 11.5% 45.5% 54.5%
30 Oct–1 Nov 2014 Ipsos 42% 37% 12% 10% 49% 51%
28 Oct 2014 Essential 39% 39% 9% 12% 47% 53%
23 Oct 2014 ReachTEL 40.1% 37.5% 11.5% 10.9% 48% 52%
21 Oct 2014 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 47% 53%
21 Oct 2014 Newspoll 38% 34% 14% 14% 47% 53%
20 Oct 2014 Morgan 39.5% 35.5% 12% 13% 48% 52%
14 Oct 2014 Essential 41% 39% 10% 10% 48% 52%
7 Oct 2014 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 48% 52%
4–5 Oct 2014 Morgan 40% 35% 12% 13% 47% 53%
4–5 Oct 2014 Galaxy 42% 36% 12% 10% 49% 51%
23 Sep 2014 Newspoll 41% 34% 11% 14% 49% 51%
13–14, 20–21 Sep 2014 Morgan 38.5% 37.5% 12% 12% 45.5% 54.5%
18 Sep 2014 ReachTEL 41.6% 37.4% 10.5% 10.5% 49% 51%
30–31 Aug, 6–7 Sep 2014 Morgan 38% 37% 10.5% 14.5% 46% 54%
5–7 Sep 2014 Newspoll 39% 35% 14% 12% 48% 52%
22–24 Aug 2014 Newspoll 40% 34% 11% 15% 49% 51%
16–17, 23–24 Aug 2014 Morgan 37.5% 38.5% 10.5% 13.5% 44.5% 55.5%
19 Aug 2014 Essential 40% 38% 9% 13% 48% 52%
9–10 Aug 2014 Morgan 37.5% 38% 11% 13.5% 44% 56%
8–10 Aug 2014 Newspoll 40% 34% 13% 13% 48% 52%
25–27 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 36% 12% 16% 46% 54%
11–13 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 37% 11% 16% 46% 54%
1 Jul 2014 Essential 40% 38% 9% 13% 48% 52%
30 Jun 2014 Morgan 35% 36.5% 12% 16.5% 42.5% 57.5%
27–29 Jun 2014 Newspoll 35% 37% 13% 15% 45% 55%
13–15 Jun 2014 Newspoll 37% 36% 10% 17% 47% 53%
30 May–1 Jun 2014 Newspoll 36% 37% 12% 15% 46% 54%
27 May 2014 Essential 40% 39% 9% 12% 48% 52%
20 May 2014 Essential 40% 40% 8% 12% 48% 52%
17–18 May 2014 Morgan 35% 38.5% 12% 14.5% 42.5% 57.5%
16–18 May 2014 Newspoll 36% 38% 11% 15% 45% 55%
15–17 May 2014 Nielsen 35% 40% 14% 12% 44% 56%
4 May 2014 Galaxy 39% 37% 11% 13% 48% 52%
2–4 May 2014 Newspoll 38% 34% 14% 14% 47% 53%
30 Apr 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 11% 48% 52%
22 Apr 2014 Morgan 38.5% 34% 13% 14.5% 48% 52%
15 Apr 2014 Essential 42% 37% 10% 11% 50% 50%
13 Apr 2014 Nielsen 40% 34% 17% 9% 48% 52%
8 Apr 2014 Essential 42% 38% 9% 11% 49% 51%
7 Apr 2014 Morgan 38.5% 34.5% 12% 15% 48.5% 51.5%
4–6 Apr 2014 Newspoll 43% 34% 11% 12% 51% 49%
25 Mar 2014 Morgan 38% 38.5% 11% 12.5% 45.5% 54.5%
25 Mar 2014 Essential 44% 37% 9% 11% 51% 49%
21–23 Mar 2014 Newspoll 40% 36% 13% 11% 48% 52%
18 Mar 2014 Essential 43% 36% 9% 12% 51% 49%
13–15 Mar 2014 Nielsen 44% 35% 12% 10% 51% 49%
7–9 Mar 2014 Newspoll 41% 35% 11% 13% 49% 51%
5 Mar 2014 Essential 44% 38% 8% 10% 51% 49%
23 Feb 2014 Morgan 41% 35.5% 10.5% 13% 49.5% 50.5%
21–23 Feb 2014 Newspoll 39% 39% 10% 12% 46% 54%
15 Feb 2014 Nielsen 44% 33% 12% 11% 52% 48%
7–9 Feb 2014 Newspoll 41% 35% 12% 12% 49% 51%
28 Jan 2014 Morgan 39.5% 37% 11.5% 12% 47% 53%
23 Jan 2014 ReachTEL 39.8% 40.6% 9.1% 9.1% 47% 53%
17–20 Jan 2014 Essential 43% 37% 9% 11% 51% 49%
13 Jan 2014 Morgan 38% 39% 10.5% 12.5% 47.5% 52.5%
16 Dec 2013 Morgan 40.5% 38.5% 10% 11% 47.5% 52.5%
15 Dec 2013 ReachTEL 41.4% 40.4% 8.7% 9.5% 48% 52%
6–8 Dec 2013 Newspoll 40% 38% 11% 11% 48% 52%
28 Nov–2 Dec 2013 Essential 44% 36% 8% 11% 52% 48%
30 Nov–1 Dec 2013 Morgan (multi) 41.5% 38.5% 8.5% 12.5% 48.5% 51.5%
22–24 Nov 2013 Newspoll 43% 35% 10% 12% 52% 48%
21–23 Nov 2013 Nielsen 41% 37% 11% 11% 48% 52%
8–10 Nov 2013 Newspoll 45% 32% 12% 11% 53% 47%
25–27 Oct 2013 Newspoll 47% 31% 10% 12% 56% 44%
19–20 Oct 2013 Morgan 43.5% 34.5% 10% 12% 51.5% 48.5%
13 Oct 2013 Shorten replaces Rudd as Labor leader
21–22 Sep 2013 Morgan 43.5% 34% 10.5% 12% 50.5% 49.5%
19–22 Sep 2013 Essential 43% 37% 9% 11% 51% 49%
12–15 Sep 2013 Essential 44% 36% 9% 11% 53% 47%
7 Sep 2013 2013 election 45.6% 33.4% 8.7% 12.3% 53.5% 46.5%
4–6 Sep 2013 Morgan (multi) 45% 31.5% 9.5% 14% 54.5% 44.5%
5 Sep 2013 ReachTEL 43.5% 33.7% 10.2% 12.6% 53% 47%
3–5 Sep 2013 Newspoll 46% 33% 9% 12% 54% 46%

Preferred prime minister and satisfaction

Date Firm Preferred prime minister Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
Turnbull Shorten Turnbull Shorten
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016 Newspoll 48% 31% 40% 47% 36% 51%
30 Jun 2016 ReachTEL 52.9% 47.1%
26–29 Jun 2016 Ipsos 49% 35% 49% 41% 42% 50%
23–26 Jun 2016 Essential 40% 29% 40% 40% 37% 39%
23–26 Jun 2016 Newspoll 45% 30% 37% 51% 35% 50%
23 Jun 2016 ReachTEL 58.4% 41.6%
16–19 Jun 2016 Newspoll 46% 31% 36% 51% 35% 51%
16 Jun 2016 ReachTEL 57.6% 42.4%
14–16 Jun 2016 Ipsos 48% 34% 47% 42% 43% 47%
9–12 Jun 2016 Essential 40% 29% 38% 40% 34% 40%
9 Jun 2016 ReachTEL 55.4% 44.6%
2–5 Jun 2016 Newspoll 45% 30% 37% 51% 33% 52%
2 Jun 2016 ReachTEL 55.6% 44.4%
31 May – 2 Jun 2016 Ipsos 49% 31% 45% 42% 41% 47%
26–29 May 2016 Essential 40% 27% 41% 39% 34% 44%
26 May 2016 ReachTEL 54.9% 45.1%
19–22 May 2016 Newspoll 46% 31% 38% 50% 37% 49%
19 May 2016 ReachTEL 55.6% 44.4%
17–19 May 2016 Ipsos 47% 30% 48% 38% 40% 46%
12–15 May 2016 Essential 43% 28% 40% 42% 34% 43%
5–8 May 2016 Newspoll 49% 27% 38% 49% 33% 52%
5–7 May 2016 Ipsos 51% 29% 48% 40% 38% 49%
5 May 2016 ReachTEL 57.7% 42.3%
4–5 May 2016 Morgan 57% 24% 43% 41% 34% 49%
14–17 Apr 2016 Newspoll 47% 28% 36% 49% 31% 52%
14–16 Apr 2016 Ipsos 54% 27% 51% 38% 33% 55%
14 Apr 2016 ReachTEL 58.4% 41.6%
Apr 2016 Essential 44% 22% 39% 39% 30% 44%
31 Mar–3 Apr 2016 Newspoll 48% 27% 38% 48% 32% 53%
Mar 2016 Essential 48% 19% 45% 35% 27% 47%
21 Mar 2016 ReachTEL 60.0% 40.0%
10–12 Mar 2016 Ipsos 61% 24% 55% 32% 33% 52%
3–6 Mar 2016 Newspoll 55% 21% 44% 41% 30% 55%
Feb 2016 Essential 52% 15% 51% 27% 27% 48%
18–21 Feb 2016 Newspoll 55% 21% 48% 38% 28% 57%
11–13 Feb 2016 Ipsos 64% 19% 62% 24% 30% 55%
11 Feb 2016 ReachTEL 74.9% 25.1%
Jan 2016 Essential 51% 18% 51% 25% 27% 47%
28–31 Jan 2016 Newspoll 59% 20% 53% 31% 25% 60%
Dec 2015 Essential 54% 15% 56% 23% 27% 47%
4–6 Dec 2015 Newspoll 60% 14% 52% 30% 23% 61%
Nov 2015 Essential 55% 14% 56% 20% 27% 47%
26 Nov 2015 ReachTEL 71.4% 28.6%
19–22 Nov 2015 Newspoll 64% 15% 60% 22% 26% 57%
12–14 Nov 2015 Ipsos 69% 18% 69% 16% 29% 57%
6–8 Nov 2015 Newspoll 55% 14% 56% 20% 27% 47%
Oct 2015 Essential 48% 19% 47% 17% 30% 42%
23–25 Oct 2015 Newspoll 63% 17% 58% 23% 26% 58%
20–22 Oct 2015 Morgan 76% 14% 66% 18% 25% 62%
15–17 Oct 2015 Ipsos 67% 21% 68% 17% 32% 56%
9–11 Oct 2015 Newspoll 57% 19% 50% 25% 28% 53%
Sep 2015 Essential 53% 17% N/A N/A 29% 50%
17–20 Sep 2015 Newspoll 55% 21% 42% 24% 29% 54%
15–16 Sep 2015 Galaxy 51% 20%
15 Sep 2015 ReachTEL 61.9% 38.1%
15 Sep 2015 Morgan 70% 24%
Abbott Shorten Abbott Shorten
4–6 Sep 2015 Newspoll 37% 41% 30% 63% 30% 58%
27 Aug 2015 ReachTEL 42.1% 57.9%
20–23 Aug 2015 Newspoll 35% 40% 30% 63% 34% 52%
13–15 Aug 2015 Ipsos 39% 45% 35% 59% 39% 49%
11 Aug 2015 Essential 36% 32% 38% 53% 29% 52%
9 Aug 2015 Newspoll 39% 39% 33% 61% 29% 57%
6 Aug 2015 ReachTEL 41.5% 58.5%
31 Jul 2015 ReachTEL 44.9% 55.1%
16–19 Jul 2015 Newspoll 39% 36% 33% 60% 27% 59%
7 Jul 2015 Essential 37% 30% 37% 53% 27% 52%
6 Jul 2015 Newspoll 39% 39% 33% 60% 28% 56%
11–13 Jun 2015 Newspoll 41% 38% 34% 56% 28% 54%
11–13 Jun 2015 Ipsos 41% 42%
2 Jun 2015 Essential 38% 33% 39% 50% 32% 45%
2 Jun 2015 Newspoll 41% 37% 38% 53% 32% 50%
17 May 2015 Ipsos 44% 39% 42% 50% 41% 45%
17 May 2015 Newspoll 41% 40% 39% 52% 35% 46%
12 Apr 2015 Essential 35% 32% 36% 54% 32% 41%
5 Apr 2015 Newspoll 38% 38% 37% 56% 34% 50%
27 Apr 2015 Morgan 44% 39% 37% 53% 34% 48%
14 Apr 2015 Essential 33% 35% 33% 58% 33% 42%
10–12 Apr 2015 Newspoll 40% 41% 33% 59% 33% 51%
9–11 Apr 2015 Ipsos 38% 46% 34% 60% 42% 44%
20–22 Mar 2015 Newspoll 36% 41% 29% 61% 36% 47%
7–8 Mar 2015 Newspoll 33% 44% 28% 63% 39% 42%
26–28 Feb 2015 Ipsos 39% 44% 32% 62% 43% 43%
20–22 Feb 2015 Newspoll 35% 43% 25% 68% 35% 49%
6–8 Feb 2015 Newspoll 30% 48% 24% 68% 42% 40%
1 Feb 2015 Galaxy 27% 44%
28–30 Jan 2015 Galaxy 27% 44%
14 Jan 2015 Morgan 41% 43% 37% 52% 37% 40%
13 Jan 2015 Essential 35% 37% 37% 53% 39% 33%
28–30 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37% 44% 33% 58% 37% 43%
4–6 Dec 2014 Ipsos 39% 47%
28–30 Nov 2014 Newspoll 36% 43% 33% 57% 39% 43%
18 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37% 43% 36% 55% 39% 41%
11 Nov 2014 Essential 36% 34% 39% 50% 37% 38%
4 Nov 2014 Newspoll 39% 38% 37% 52% 37% 45%
30 Oct–1 Nov 2014 Ipsos 41% 41% 42% 49% 43% 40%
21 Oct 2014 Newspoll 39% 38% 38% 53% 35% 46%
14 Oct 2014 Essential 38% 32% 40% 48% 35% 36%
23 Sep 2014 Newspoll 41% 37% 41% 52% 38% 43%
5–7 Sep 2014 Newspoll 37% 37% 35% 54% 36% 43%
22–24 Aug 2014 Newspoll 39% 40% 36% 55% 40% 39%
8–10 Aug 2014 Newspoll 41% 37% 36% 54% 36% 44%
25–27 Jul 2014 Newspoll 38% 38% 36% 53% 38% 41%
11–13 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 41% 31% 60% 34% 43%
27–29 Jun 2014 Newspoll 34% 44% 31% 62% 34% 41%
13–15 Jun 2014 Newspoll 37% 40% 30% 61% 34% 45%
30 May – 1 Jun 2014 Newspoll 35% 45% 33% 59% 38% 43%
16–18 May 2014 Newspoll 34% 44% 30% 60% 42% 39%
15–17 May 2014 Nielsen 40% 51% 34% 62% 47% 39%
2–4 May 2014 Newspoll 40% 38% 35% 56% 35% 41%
13 Apr 2014 Nielsen 45% 44% 43% 50% 43% 41%
8 Apr 2014 Essential 42% 32% 41% 47% 34% 38%
4–6 Apr 2014 Newspoll 41% 33% 40% 47% 31% 42%
21–23 Mar 2014 Newspoll 43% 36% 40% 50% 36% 43%
13–15 Mar 2014 Nielsen 48% 43% 45% 49% 42% 42%
7–9 Mar 2014 Newspoll 42% 36% 38% 50% 33% 43%
21–23 Feb 2014 Newspoll 38% 37% 36% 52% 35% 39%
15 Feb 2014 Nielsen 49% 39% 45% 47% 40% 40%
7–9 Feb 2014 Newspoll 41% 33% 40% 45% 35% 35%
6–8 Dec 2013 Newspoll 41% 34% 40% 45% 44% 27%
22–24 Nov 2013 Newspoll 44% 33% 42% 42% 39% 27%
21–23 Nov 2013 Nielsen 49% 41% 47% 46% 51% 30%
8–10 Nov 2013 Newspoll 46% 30% 45% 38% 37% 24%
25–27 Oct 2013 Newspoll 47% 28% 47% 34% 32% 24%
2013 election – – – – – –
3–5 Sep 2013 Newspoll 45% 44% 50%
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

Individual seat polling

Main article: Electorate opinion polling for the 2016 Australian federal election

Notes

  1. Ipsos asked respondents to nominate their own second preferences. Based only on 2013 preference flows, TPP is LNP 56% to ALP 44%.
  2. Malcolm Turnbull succeeded Tony Abbott as Liberal Party leader on 14 September 2015. Poll was conducted to gauge the public's response.

References

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