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Post-election pendulum for the 2020 Queensland state election

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The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2020 Queensland state election.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Labor seats (52)
Marginal
Bundaberg Tom Smith ALP 0.01
Nicklin Robert Skelton ALP 0.1
Hervey Bay Adrian Tantari ALP 2.0
Caloundra Jason Hunt ALP 2.5
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP 3.1
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP 3.1
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP 3.2
Redlands Kim Richards ALP 3.9
Mundingburra Les Walker ALP 3.9
Aspley Bart Mellish ALP 5.2
Pumicestone Ali King ALP 5.3
Cairns Michael Healy ALP 5.6
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP 5.6
Fairly safe
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP 6.1
Cook Cynthia Lui ALP 6.3
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP 6.7
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP 6.7
Mansfield Corrine McMillan ALP 6.8
Gaven Meaghan Scanlon ALP 7.8
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP 8.3
Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke ALP 8.6
Macalister Melissa McMahon ALP 9.5
Capalaba Don Brown ALP 9.8
Safe
Cooper Jonty Bush ALP 10.5
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP 11.0
McConnel Grace Grace ALP 11.1
Murrumba Steven Miles ALP 11.3
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 11.4
Stafford Jimmy Sullivan ALP 11.9
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP 11.9
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 12.2
Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh ALP 12.6
Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP 12.8
Kurwongbah Shane King ALP 13.1
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP 13.2
Lytton Joan Pease ALP 13.4
Logan Linus Power ALP 13.4
Miller Mark Bailey ALP 13.8
Ipswich West Jim Madden ALP 14.3
Toohey Peter Russo ALP 14.5
Stretton Duncan Pegg ALP 14.8
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP 15.1
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP 16.0
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP 16.5
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 16.7
Jordan Charis Mullen ALP 17.1
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 17.3
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP 17.8
Bundamba Lance McCallum ALP 20.7 v ONP
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP 23.5
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP 26.2
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 28.2
Liberal National seats (34)
Marginal
Currumbin Laura Gerber LNP 0.5
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 1.1
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP 1.2
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP 1.3
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 1.6
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 1.6
Everton Tim Mander LNP 2.2
Whitsunday Amanda Camm LNP 3.3
Theodore Mark Boothman LNP 3.3
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP 3.6
Ninderry Dan Purdie LNP 4.1
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 4.4
Oodgeroo Mark Robinson LNP 4.5
Buderim Brent Mickelberg LNP 5.3
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP 5.4
Fairly safe
Burdekin Dale Last LNP 7.0
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP 7.3
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP 8.5
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 9.1
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 9.3
Safe
Bonney Sam O'Connor LNP 10.1
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 10.1
Toowoomba South David Janetzki LNP 10.2
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP 10.8
Scenic Rim Jon Krause LNP 11.5
Lockyer Jim McDonald LNP 11.5
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP 12.2
Southern Downs James Lister LNP 14.1
Callide Colin Boyce LNP 15.8
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 16.2
Broadwater David Crisafulli LNP 16.6
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP 17.2
Condamine Pat Weir LNP 19.2
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP 23.1
Crossbench seats (7)
South Brisbane Amy MacMahon GRN 5.3 v ALP
Maiwar Michael Berkman GRN 6.3 v LNP
Mirani Stephen Andrew ONP 9.0 v ALP
Hinchinbrook Nick Dametto KAP 14.8 v LNP
Noosa Sandy Bolton IND 15.8 v LNP
Hill Shane Knuth KAP 22.5 v ALP
Traeger Robbie Katter KAP 24.7 v ALP

References

  1. Green, Antony. "Analysis of the 2020 Queensland Election Result". Antony Green's Election Blog. Retrieved 18 November 2020.
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