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2016 United States Senate election in Alaska

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See also: 2016 United States Senate elections

2016 United States Senate election in Alaska

← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Nominee Lisa Murkowski Joe Miller
Party Republican Libertarian
Popular vote 138,149 90,825
Percentage 44.36% 29.16%

 
Nominee Margaret Stock Ray Metcalfe
Party Independent Democratic
Popular vote 41,194 36,200
Percentage 13.23% 11.62%

State house district results Borough and census area results Precinct results
Murkowski:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Miller:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Stock:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Metcalfe:      20–30%      30–40%
Tie%/No Votes:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      N/A

U.S. senator before election

Lisa Murkowski
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Lisa Murkowski
Republican

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski won re-election to a third term in office. The primaries were held on August 16. She was challenged by several candidates, including Democrat Ray Metcalfe, a former Republican state legislator; Independent Margaret Stock, an attorney; and Libertarian Joe Miller, who had defeated Murkowski for the Republican nomination six years before.

Murkowski was re-elected with 44.4% of the vote, becoming the first person in history to win three elections to the U.S. Senate with pluralities but not majorities, having taken 48.6% in 2004 and 39.5% in 2010. Miller's 29.2% finish was then the best ever for a Libertarian candidate in a U.S. Senate election in terms of vote percentage. This record was surpassed four years later by Ricky Dale Harrington Jr., who received 33.4% of the vote in the 2020 Arkansas Senate election, which had no Democratic candidate. This was also the first U.S. Senate election where four candidates received more than 10% of the vote since the 1942 Minnesota race, as well as being the first Senate race since then where the Democratic nominee finished fourth.

Background

After Republican U.S. Senator Frank Murkowski was elected Governor of Alaska in 2002, he appointed his daughter Lisa to the Senate to replace him. She was elected to a full term in 2004 but was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010 by Tea Party challenger Joe Miller. She ran as a write-in candidate in the general election and was re-elected to a second full term with 39.5% of the vote to Miller's 35.5% and Democratic nominee Scott McAdams' 23.5%. She is one of only two U.S. Senators to be elected via write-in votes, the other being Strom Thurmond in 1954.

Republican primary

As Murkowski was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010, it had been speculated that she would be challenged from the right again in 2016.

Candidates

Declared

  • Paul Kendall
  • Thomas Lamb, candidate for the state house in 2006
  • Bob Lochner, mechanic and candidate for the state house in 1996
  • Lisa Murkowski, incumbent U.S. Senator since 2002

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Lisa Murkowski

Governors

U.S. Senators

Bob Lochner

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) 39,545 71.52%
Republican Bob Lochner 8,480 15.34%
Republican Paul Kendall 4,272 7.73%
Republican Thomas Lamb 2,996 5.42%
Total votes 55,293 100.00%

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.

Democratic candidates

Declared

Removed

Declined

Libertarian candidates

Declared

  • Cean Stevens, small business owner, nominee for the state house in 2014 and Republican nominee for the state house in 2012

Results

Primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ray Metcalfe 15,228 50.06%
Democratic Edgar Blatchford 10,090 33.17%
Libertarian Cean Stevens 5,102 16.77%
Total votes 30,420 100.00%

Subsequent events

Cean Stevens was originally the only Libertarian to file, and was the sole Libertarian in the primary. Stevens withdrew after winning the nomination, and the Alaska Libertarian Party nominated Joe Miller as her replacement.

Third party and independent candidates

Declared

  • Breck Craig (independent)
  • Ted Gianoutsos (independent), founder of the Veterans Party of Alaska and perennial candidate
  • Margaret Stock (independent), attorney and retired Army Lt. Colonel

Failed to qualify

  • Sid Hill (independent)
  • Bruce Walden (Veterans Party), retired army sergeant and Republican candidate for the state house in 2006
  • Jed Whittaker (independent), commercial fisherman, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1992 and Green Party nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996

Declined

General election

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Lisa Murkowski (R) $6,058,418 $7,055,457 $91,119
Ray Metcalfe (D) $20,865 $13,147 $7,718
Margaret Stock (I) $740,769 $738,918 $1,850
Joe Miller (L) $122 $445 $99,402

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Likely R November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report Safe R November 3, 2016
Daily Kos Safe R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics Safe R November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lisa
Murkowski (R)
Joe
Miller (L)
Ray
Metcalfe (D)
Margaret
Stock (I)
Other Undecided
Moore Information October 5–6, 2016 500 ± 4.0% 49% 16% 9% 8% 1% 15%
Alaska Survey Research September 28 – October 2, 2016 660 ± 3.8% 50% 18% 12% 7% 2% 11%
Moore Information September 13–15, 2016 500 ±4.0% 48% 15% 15% 7% 1% 12%
Moore Information (R-Murkowski) August 27–29, 2016 500 ± 4.0% 56% 12% 5% 10% 17%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lisa
Murkowski (R)
Ray
Metcalfe (D)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 409 ± 4.6% 55% 33% 12%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 382 ± 4.6% 57% 32% 11%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 303 ± 4.6% 60% 25% 15%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 334 ± 4.6% 56% 30% 14%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 268 ± 4.6% 60% 22% 18%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 300 ± 4.6% 57% 26% 22%

Endorsements

Lisa Murkowski (R)

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Joe Miller (L)

Individuals

  • Amy Demboski, Anchorage Assemblywoman and candidate for Mayor of Anchorage in 2015
  • Paul Kendall, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016
  • Tom Lamb, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016
  • Bob Lochner, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016
  • Mark Levin, host of The Mark Levin Show

Organizations

Margaret Stock (I)

Individuals

Organizations

  • The Centrist Project

Results

2016 United States Senate election in Alaska
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) 138,149 44.36% +8.87%
Libertarian Joe Miller 90,825 29.16% +28.59%
Independent Margaret Stock 41,194 13.23% N/A
Democratic Ray Metcalfe 36,200 11.62% −11.84%
Independent Breck A. Craig 2,609 0.84% N/A
Independent Ted Gianoutsos 1,758 0.56% N/A
Write-in 706 0.23% −39.70%
Total votes 311,441 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Libertarian

Notes

  1. The Libertarian Party of Massachusetts set the total vote records in 2000 and 2002 with over 300,000 both times and in races with and without Republican opponents; Gary Johnson also won over 100,000 votes in New Mexico in 2018.

References

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  57. Cean Stevens (L) 5%, Breck Craig (I) 1%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%, None 3%
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  59. SurveyMonkey
  60. SurveyMonkey
  61. SurveyMonkey
  62. SurveyMonkey
  63. SurveyMonkey
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  77. "2016 General Election November 8, 2016 Official Results". elections.alaska.gov. November 8, 2016. Retrieved December 15, 2016.

External links

Official campaign websites

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