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2016 United States presidential election in Arizona

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Turnout	74.2%
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Party Republican Democratic Home state New York New York Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Electoral vote 11 0 Popular vote 1,252,401 1,161,167 Percentage 48.08% 44.58%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Clinton   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% No Data
President before election Barack Obama Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Elections in Arizona
Federal government Presidential elections 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Presidential primaries Democratic 2004 2008 2016 2020 2024 Republican 2008 2012 2016 2024 U.S. Senate elections 1912 1914 1916 1920 1922 1926 1928 1932 1934 1938 1940 1944 1946 1950 1952 1956 1958 1962 1964 1968 1970 1974 1976 1980 1982 1986 1988 1992 1994 1998 2000 2004 2006 2010 2012 2016 2018 2020 sp 2022 2024 2028 U.S. House of Representatives elections 1911 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1933 AL sp 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1961 2nd sp 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1991 2nd sp 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 8th 2008 2010 2012 8th sp 2014 2016 2018 8th sp 2020 2022 2024
State government State elections 2006 2010 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Gubernatorial elections 1911 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 Secretary of State elections 2014 2018 2022 2026 Attorney General elections 2018 2022 2026 Treasurer elections 2022 Superintendent elections 2018 2022 Senate elections 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 House of Representatives elections 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Ballot measures List of Arizona ballot propositions 2000 203 2004 200 2006 107 204 207 2008 102 2010 100 203 2020 207 2024 139
Phoenix Mayoral elections 2011 2015 2018–19 (sp) 2020 2024
Tucson Mayoral elections 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023
Other localities Gilbert 2012 Glendale 2012 2016 Maricopa County 2024 Mesa 2008 2012 2020 2024 Scottsdale 2008 2012
v t e

The 2016 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Despite the country at-large swinging to the right, Arizona's Republican margin of victory decreased from 9.0% in 2012 to only 3.5% in 2016, thus making it one of 11 states (along with the District of Columbia) to swing toward the Democratic Party in this election. Trump's margin of victory in Arizona was the smallest for any Republican who won the presidency since Arizona's founding in 1912, with Calvin Coolidge's 5.8% victory in 1924 being the second closest.

Notably, Maricopa County, the state's most populous county, went more Democratic than the state as a whole for the first time in state history. The county had not voted for a Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948. Therefore, Trump's narrow win in the county suggested the Republican Party was losing ground in the state. In fact, the county and the state would go on to vote Democratic in 2020, although both would easily return to Trump's column in 2024.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Six candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

• Bernie Sanders
• Hillary Clinton
• Rocky De La Fuente
• Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)
• Henry Hewes
• Michael Steinberg

Opinion polling

Results

Detailed results per congressional district

Republican primary

Fourteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

• Jeb Bush (withdrawn)
• Ben Carson (withdrawn)
• Chris Christie (withdrawn)
• Ted Cruz
• Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)
• Lindsey Graham (withdrawn)
• Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)
• John Kasich
• George Pataki (withdrawn)
• Rand Paul (withdrawn)
• Marco Rubio (withdrawn)
• Rick Santorum (withdrawn)
• Tim Cook
• Donald Trump

Green primary

The Arizona Green Party held its primary on March 22. Jill Stein won with 82% of the vote, and the overall number of voters that took place in the primary saw an increase from 561 in 2012 to 770 in 2016. Only two candidates qualified for the primary:

Arizona Green Party presidential primary, March 22, 2016

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	National delegates
Jill Stein	666	82%	5
Kent Mesplay	151	18%	1
Write-in/Blank	18	0%	-
Total	817	100.0%	6

General election

Polling

The first poll conducted in March 2016 showed a tie between Clinton and Trump. From March 2016 to October, the polling in this normally Republican state was quite close, with neither candidate seriously leading. In late October, Trump gained momentum and won every pre-election poll in the weeks leading up to the election. The final poll showed Trump leading Clinton 46% to 41% and the average of the final 3 polls showed Trump leading 47% to 43%, which was accurate compared to the results.

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Arizona as of Election Day.

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Arizona
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Popular vote		Electoral vote		Swing
				Count	%	Count	%
	Republican	Donald Trump of New York	Mike Pence of Indiana	1,252,401	48.1%	11	100.0%	5.4%
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton of New York	Tim Kaine of Virginia	1,161,167	44.6%	0	0.0%	0.1%
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson of New Mexico	Bill Weld of Massachusetts	106,327	4.1%	0	0.0%	2.7%
	Green	Jill Stein of Massachusetts	Ajamu Baraka of Illinois	34,345	1.3%	0	0.0%	1.0%
	Write-in	Various of Various	Various of Various	31,662	1.2%	0	0.0%	0.9%
	Independent	Evan McMullin (write-in) of Utah	Nathan Johnson of California	17,449	0.7%	0	0.0%	0.7%
	Constitution	Darrell L. Castle (write-in) of Tennessee	Scott N. Bradley of Utah	1,058	0.0%	0	0.0%	0.0%
	Independent	Tom Hoefling (write-in) of Iowa	Steve Schulin of South Carolina	85	0.0%	0	0.0%
	Independent	Mike Smith (write-in) of Tennessee	Daniel L. White of Texas	62	0.0%	0	0.0%
	Independent	Laurence Kotlikoff (write-in) of Massachusetts	Edward E. Leamer of California	52	0.0%	0	0.0%
	Reform	Rocky De La Fuente (write-in) of California	Michael Steinberg of Florida	29	0.0%	0	0.0%
	Independent	Joseph Allen Maldonado (write-in) of Oklahoma	Douglas Terranova of Texas	20	0.0%	0	0.0%
Total				2,604,657	100.0%	11	100.0%

By county

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

By congressional district

Trump won 5 of 9 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.

Turnout

Voter Turnout was 74.2% with 2,661,497 ballots cast out of 3,588,466 voters.

Analysis

Donald Trump won Arizona with a margin of 3.5%, a reduced margin from Mitt Romney's 9.0% margin in 2012. Arizona was among the eleven states in which Hillary Clinton outperformed Barack Obama's margin in 2012, primarily due to an increase in Hispanic voter turnout in southern Arizona, including heavily populated Maricopa County. This was the weakest performance for a Republican in the state since 1992. Trump also lost the 2nd congressional district that Romney had won four years earlier.

Maricopa County in particular went from a 10.7% margin of victory for Romney in 2012 to a 2.8% margin of victory for Trump, making this only one of three times that a Democrat held the county's margins to single digits since 1952. Indeed, the only other times were 1964 and 1996. Clinton also came the closest of any Democrat to winning Yuma County since La Paz County broke off from it in the 1980s, as the county was last carried by a Democrat in 1964.

Other rural counties that Bill Clinton had won in the 1990s continued to trend in a Republican direction, namely the formerly union-heavy Gila, Graham, and Greenlee counties. In terms of percentage of the vote, Trump's strongest support was in the northwest of the state, including Mohave County, which was the only county to give him over 70% of the vote. Clinton did best in the southern-central region along the US-Mexico border. Santa Cruz and Pima counties (home to Tucson) were among her strongest and among the places in the state where she outperformed Barack Obama in 2012.

Electors

Arizona had 11 electors in 2016. All of them voted for Donald Trump for president and Mike Pence for vice president.

The electors were

• Bruce Ash
• Walter Begay
• Sharon Giese
• Robert Graham
• Alberto Gutier
• Jerry Hayden
• Carole Joyce
• Jane Pierpoint Lynch
• J. Foster Morgan
• James O'Connor
• Edward Robson

See also

• 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Green Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

References

1. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Archived from the original on January 9, 2019. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
2. Hobbs, Katie. "Arizona Secretary of State 2012 Election Information". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved November 6, 2020.
3. "Democratic Party Candidates – Presidential Preference Election 2016". azsos.gov. Secretary of State of Arizona. Archived from the original on September 9, 2016. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
4. The Green Papers
5. Arizona Secretary of State
6. "Arizona Democratic Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com.
7. "2016 Arizona District-Level Delegate Math" (PDF). Arizona Democratic Party. April 5, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 18, 2016. Retrieved April 8, 2016.
8. "Republican Party Candidates – Presidential Preference Election 2016 | Arizona Secretary of State". Azsos.gov. March 7, 2015. Archived from the original on December 3, 2016. Retrieved December 1, 2016.
9. "Arizona Green Party Presidential Primary Results". Ballot Access News. March 23, 2016. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
10. "Two Candidates Qualify for Arizona Green Party Presidential Primary; Six Qualify for Democratic Primary". Ballot Access News. December 14, 2015. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
11. "Unofficial 2016 Presidential Preference Election Results". azsos.gov. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
12. "RealClearPolitics – Election 2016 – Arizona: Trump vs. Clinton". www.realclearpolitics.com.
13. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
14. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
15. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
16. "Road to 270: CNN's general election map – CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
17. Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
18. "2016 Election Maps – Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
19. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
20. "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
21. "2016 Presidential General Election Results – Arizona".
22. "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
23. "Arizona Secretary of State Election Night Reporting". Results.arizona.vote. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
24. "Arizona Election Results 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved November 10, 2016.
25. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections – County Data".

External links

• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived November 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions

v t e State and district results of the 2016 United States presidential election
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v t e Elections in Arizona
Governor	1911 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
U.S. President	1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
U.S. Senate	Class 1 1912 1916 1922 1928 1934 1940 1946 1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018 2024 Class 3 1912 1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016 2020 (sp) 2022
U.S. House	1911 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
See also: Political party strength in Arizona

• 2016 United States presidential election by state
• United States presidential elections in Arizona
• 2016 Arizona elections