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2016 United States presidential election in Minnesota

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Turnout	74.72%
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Party Democratic (DFL) Republican Home state New York New York Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence Electoral vote 10 0 Popular vote 1,367,825 1,323,232 Percentage 46.44% 44.93%
County Results Congressional District Results Precinct Results Clinton   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Johnson   90–100% Tie/No Data
President before election Barack Obama Democratic (DFL) Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Elections in Minnesota
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v t e

The 2016 United States presidential election in Minnesota was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Minnesota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against DFL nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Minnesota has ten electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Despite Trump flipping numerous Midwestern states, some of which had not voted Republican since the 1980s, Minnesota was still won with a plurality by Clinton with a 1.51% margin, the eleventh consecutive Democratic presidential win in the state, which has not voted for a Republican since the landslide reelection of Richard Nixon in 1972. However, this was the closest presidential election in Minnesota since 1984, when Walter Mondale carried the state by a 0.18% margin and it was the only state not carried by Ronald Reagan that year. The state also voted to the right of the national average for the first time since 1952, with Trump flipping nineteen counties. Minnesota had the highest voter turnout in the nation, with approximately 75% of the state's eligible voters participating in the general election. One elector, Muhammud Abdurrahan, tried to vote for Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont but was replaced with an elector that voted for Clinton.

As of the 2024 election, this is the most recent election where Clay County voted Republican and the only election since 1952 where Minnesota voted more Republican than the national popular vote.

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

Bernie Sanders received the most votes and the most delegates in the precinct caucuses. The 2016 turnout was slightly lower than the 2008 tally of 214,066, when Obama won with 142,109 votes, to Clinton's 68,994. Bernie Sanders won every congressional district in Minnesota.

Republican caucuses

The 38 delegates from Minnesota were allocated in this way. If a candidate received more than 85% of the vote, they would get all of 38 delegates. Otherwise, 24 delegates would be allocated proportionally based on the votes per congressional district (3 votes per district). On top of that, there were 10 at-large delegates and 3 party leaders (the National Committee Man, the National Committee woman, and the chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party). All of the at-large delegates were allocated proportionally based on the popular vote with a mandatory threshold of 10% to receive any delegates; if no one got at least 10%, all candidates would be eligible to get delegates.

Some media outlets recorded the votes by congressional district, rather than by county. Rubio won districts 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul area as well as the southern part of the state. Cruz won districts 6, 7 and 8 in the St. Cloud area and rural north.

Green caucuses

The Green Party of Minnesota held caucuses on March 1 in Saint Paul, Minneapolis, Bemidji, White Bear Lake, Blaine, Grand Rapids, and Willmar. Jill Stein won the caucuses with 84.3% of the vote. The delegates apportioned to each candidate will be decided at the state convention in St. Cloud, Minnesota in June. The results of the caucuses are as follows:

Libertarian caucuses

The Minnesota caucus was run on March 1, 2016, using ranked choice voting. Gary Johnson took over 75% of the 226 first-preference votes cast, with John McAfee a distant second on 11.5% and Austin Petersen third on 7.5%.

General election

Predictions

Polling

Clinton won almost every pre-election poll in Minnesota by margins ranging from 5 to 11 points. Trump won one poll in November 2015, 45% to 42%, and one poll in September 2016 showed a tie. The average of the last two polls had Clinton up 50% to 41%. The last poll had Clinton up 53% to 42%.

Candidates

The following had write-in status:

Results

By county

•   DFL — +12.5-15%
•   DFL — +10-12.5%
•   DFL — +7.5-10%
•   DFL — +5-7.5%
•   DFL — +2.5-5%
•   DFL — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

•   DFL — +12.5-15%
•   DFL — +10-12.5%
•   DFL — +7.5-10%
•   DFL — +5-7.5%
•   DFL — +2.5-5%
•   DFL — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

• DFL   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Gain from DFL

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Beltrami (largest city: Bemidji)
• Blue Earth (largest city: Mankato)
• Chippewa (largest city: Montevideo)
• Clay (largest city: Moorhead)
• Fillmore (largest city: Spring Valley)
• Freeborn (largest city: Albert Lea)
• Houston (largest city: La Crescent)
• Itasca (largest city: Grand Rapids)
• Kittson (largest city: Hallock)
• Koochiching (largest city: International Falls)
• Lac qui Parle (largest city: Madison)
• Mahnomen (largest city: Mahnomen)
• Mower (largest city: Austin)
• Nicollet (largest city: North Mankato)
• Norman (largest city: Ada)
• Rice (largest city: Faribault)
• Swift (largest city: Benson)
• Traverse (largest city: Wheaton)
• Winona (largest city: Winona)

By congressional district

Trump won 5 of 8 congressional districts, including three held by Democrats, while Clinton won the other three, including one held by a Republican.

Analysis

Minnesota voted 6.2 percent less Democratic from the 2012 presidential election, a much larger shift than the nation at large. Donald Trump only increased his vote tally compared to Mitt Romney in 2012 by 2,726 votes which resulted in a percentage of vote loss of 0.04%. The difference in Democratic voting was largely attributed to Independent or Write-In candidates. The most significant Independent gains went to Gary Johnson with 3.84 percent of the vote (+2.64% over 2012), Evan McMullin with 1.8 percent of the vote (he was not a candidate in 2012), and Jill Stein with 1.26 percent of the vote (+0.82% over 2012). These three candidates account for 5.26 percent of the swing. This election marked the first time since 1952 that the Democratic candidate performed worse in Minnesota than in the nation at large. Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.1 points but won Minnesota by just 1.5 points, or 44,593 votes. Minnesota has been a primarily Democratic state in national elections since 1932.

Due to Independent and Write-In gains throughout the state, Clinton was dependent on her wins in Hennepin (Minneapolis) and Ramsey (St. Paul) counties, the two most populous counties in the state, and the Arrowhead Region in the northeastern corner of the state. Trump's votes came from less populated, rural counties. Two counties, Morrison and Todd, gave Trump over 70% of the vote, making this the first election since 1968 where either major party candidate won a county with over 70%, with Trump also being the first Republican to do so since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956.

Trump was also the first Republican to receive a majority of votes in Itasca County since Herbert Hoover in 1928, the first to win Swift County since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, and the first to win Mower County since Richard Nixon against John F. Kennedy in 1960.

Nonetheless, he became the first-ever Republican to win the White House without carrying Olmsted County. Due to the close margin of victory in the state, Republicans had targeted Minnesota as a potential swing state target for the 2020 United States presidential election.

See also

• United States presidential elections in Minnesota
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

References

1. ^ "Office of the State Of Minnesota Secretary of State". www.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved July 22, 2017.
2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
3. "Statement from Chairman Ken Martin on Precinct Caucuses". Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party. March 3, 2016. Archived from the original on December 7, 2017. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
4. ^ "Results from the Minnesota caucuses". graphics.latimes.com. Retrieved April 26, 2016.
5. The Green Papers
6. "Minnesota Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 24, 2017.
7. "Green Party Minnesota Sunflower Seed - February 2016". Minnesota Green Party. February 19, 2016. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
8. "Jill Stein Wins GPMN Presidential Straw Poll". March 2, 2016. Retrieved March 2, 2016.
9. "Stein wins 84.3% in Minnesota Green presidential caucuses". March 2, 2016. Archived from the original on March 5, 2016. Retrieved March 2, 2016.
10. "Stein wins in Boston and Worcester". Green Party Watch. March 2, 2016. Archived from the original on March 5, 2016. Retrieved March 5, 2016.
11. "Unofficial results show Stein easily winning Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party presidential primary". Green Party Watch. March 2, 2015. Archived from the original on March 5, 2016. Retrieved March 5, 2016.
12. "2016 LPMN Caucus Results of presidential preference poll". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. March 1, 2016. Retrieved March 20, 2016.
13. "2016 LPMN Caucus Results of presidential preference poll". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. March 2016. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
14. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
15. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
16. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
17. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
18. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
19. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
20. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
21. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
22. "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Minnesota: Trump vs. Clinton".
23. "Federal Offices General Ballot List" (PDF).
24. "2016 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS". Minnesota Secretary of State. Archived from the original on November 20, 2022. Retrieved December 20, 2022.
25. "2016 Presidential General Election Results - Minnesota".
26. Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
27. "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index".
28. Simon, Steve (November 29, 2016). "State of Minnesota Canvassing Report" (PDF). Minnesota Secretary of State. State of Minnesota. Retrieved December 2, 2016.
29. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
30. "Why one Minnesota county voted Republican for the first time since 1928". MPR News. November 14, 2016. Retrieved March 24, 2019.
31. Keen, Judy (November 17, 2018). "Will Minnesota be a tossup state in 2020 elections?". Star Tribune. Retrieved March 17, 2019.

Further reading

• David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (September 13, 2020). "The five political states of Minnesota". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on October 4, 2020.

External links

• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived 2016-11-08 at the Wayback Machine
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
• Decision Desk Headquarter Results for Minnesota
• Minnesota Secretary Of State - Historical Voter Turnout Statistics

v t e State and district results of the 2016 United States presidential election
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• 2016 United States presidential election by state
• United States presidential elections in Minnesota
• 2016 Minnesota elections