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2012 United States presidential election in Tennessee

← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
Turnout	61.86% 4.48 pp
Nominee Mitt Romney Barack Obama Party Republican Democratic Home state Massachusetts Illinois Running mate Paul Ryan Joe Biden Electoral vote 11 0 Popular vote 1,462,330 960,709 Percentage 59.42% 39.04%
County results Congressional district results State Senate district results Romney   50–60%   60–70%   70–80% Obama   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%
President before election Barack Obama Democratic Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

Elections in Tennessee
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The 2012 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Tennessee voters chose 11 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Romney easily carried Tennessee's 11 electoral votes, winning 59.42% of the vote in the state to Obama's 39.04%. Tennessee has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1996, when Bill Clinton won the state and many other states of the South, and Tennessee has not given a majority to a Democratic nominee since fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter carried it in 1976. Thus, Tennessee has been seen as part of the modern-day red wall in the 21st century. After 1996, the state had been growing more Republican with almost each election.

Winning Tennessee by 501,621 votes, Mitt Romney achieved his second-largest margin of victory by vote count nationwide, surpassed only by the 1,261,719-vote margin in Texas. Romney gained ground in every county, significantly outperforming prior Presidential GOP candidates in rural areas, particularly in Middle Tennessee. Notably, Romney also flipped two counties, Houston and Jackson, to the Republican column. Both of these majority-white counties had been Democratic strongholds with their strong ties to secessionism: they had each only voted for a Republican presidential nominee once prior to this election, in 1928 and 1920, respectively. Thus, Obama became the first Democrat to be elected without either county. As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time in which Hardeman County was won by the Democratic presidential nominee. This is also the first and only time that a Democratic president has won re-election without ever carrying Tennessee.

As consistent with the rest of the country, Obama carried heavily populated and diverse counties. The largest county, Shelby, was won by Obama by a 26.05% margin due to it being home to Memphis, Tennessee's largest city. In addition, the home of the state capital of Nashville, Davidson County, went to Obama by 18.53%. Hardeman and Haywood counties, both low-populated suburbs of Memphis, also went to Obama due to their high African American populations (42.2% and 50.6%, respectively). However, rural areas – including areas in the northwestern portion of the state that had long favored Democratic candidates – saw heavy margins for Romney, allowing him to offset Obama's wins in large cities. The eastern region of the state in Appalachia, some of the most historically Republican and Unionist counties in the country, saw margins of over 70% for the Republican ticket.

Background

A Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win at least 40% of the state vote was Barack Obama in 2008, and Republicans have occupied all statewide offices in Tennessee since 2011.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Tennessee Democratic primary, 2012

← 2008 March 6, 2012 (2012-03-06) 2016 →

Candidate Barack Obama Uncommitted Home state Illinois N/A Delegate count 82 0 Popular vote 80,357 10,497 Percentage 88.48% 11.51%

Primary results by county Obama:      60–65%      65–70%      70–75%      75–80%      80–85%      85–90%      90–95%      95–100%

The 2012 democratic primary in Tennessee took place on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012, with Barack Obama receiving 80,355 (88.5%) votes. Other candidates received a combined total of 10,411 (11.5%) votes. Tennessee had a total of 91 delegates to the 2012 Democratic National Convention, of which 82 were pledged to presidential contenders depending on the popular vote. The remaining 9 super-delegates were unbound.

Tennessee Democratic primary, 2012

Candidate	Popular vote		Delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged delegates	Super delegates	Total delegates
Barack Obama (incumbent)	80,705	88.48%	82	9	91
Uncommitted	10,497	11.51%	0	0	0
John Wolfe Jr. (write-in)	7	0.00%	0	0	0
Total:	91,209	100%	82	9	91

Republican primary

Tennessee Republican primary, 2012

← 2008 March 6, 2012 (2012-03-06) 2016 →

Candidate Rick Santorum Mitt Romney Home state Pennsylvania Massachusetts Delegate count 29 14 Popular vote 205,809 155,630 Percentage 37.11% 28.06%   Candidate Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Home state Georgia Texas Delegate count 9 0 Popular vote 132,889 50,156 Percentage 23.96% 9.04%

County winner Vote share     Santorum      Romney      Gingrich Santorum   30 – 40%   40 – 50%   50 – 60% Romney   30 – 40% Gingrich   30 – 40%

The Republican primary took place on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012.

Tennessee has 58 delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention. Three superdelegates are unbound. 27 delegates are awarded by congressional district, 3 delegates for each district. If a candidate wins two-thirds of the vote in a district, he takes all 3 delegates there; if not, delegates are split 2-to-1 between the top two candidates. Another 28 delegates are awarded to the candidate who wins two-thirds of the vote statewide, or allocated proportionately among candidates winning at least 20% of the vote if no one gets two-thirds.

Former Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum won the primary with a plurality, carrying 37.11% of the vote and all but four counties, awarding him 29 delegates. Former Massachusetts Governor and eventual nominee, Mitt Romney, came second with 28.06% of the vote and 19 delegates. He carried only three counties: Davidson, Loudon, and Williamson. Former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich of neighboring Georgia, came third with 23.96% of the vote and 9 delegates, carrying only the county of Marion. Representative from Texas Ron Paul received 9.04% of the vote and all other candidates received under 1% of the vote.

Results

Tennessee Republican primary, 2012

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Projected delegate count
			NYT	CNN	FOX
Rick Santorum	205,809	37.11%	29	27	26
Mitt Romney	155,630	28.06%	14	15	12
Newt Gingrich	132,889	23.96%	9	8	9
Ron Paul	50,156	9.04%	0	0	0
Rick Perry (withdrawn)	1,966	0.35%	0	0	0
Michele Bachmann (withdrawn)	1,895	0.34%	0	0	0
Jon Huntsman (withdrawn)	1,239	0.22%	0	0	0
Buddy Roemer (withdrawn)	881	0.16%	0	0	0
Gary Johnson (withdrawn)	572	0.10%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	3,536	0.64%	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			6	8	9
Total:	554,573	100.00%	58	58	58

General election

Predictions

Results

By county

•   Republican—+<5%
•   Republican—+5-10%
•   Republican—+10-15%
•   Republican—+15-20%

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Houston (largest city: Erin)
• Jackson (largest town: Gainesboro)

By congressional district

Mitt Romney swept the state and carried seven of the state's nine congressional districts, all represented by Republicans. Barack Obama carried the state's two congressional districts, the 5th and 9th, anchored by the two largest cities of Nashville and Memphis, respectively.

See also

• Presidency of Barack Obama
• 2012 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2012 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2012 Tennessee elections
• 2012 United States elections

References

1. "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2012". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 6, 2012. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
2. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Tennessee". Retrieved January 4, 2013.
3. Moskowitz, Seth (March 2, 2020). "The Road to 270: Tennessee". 270toWin. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
4. Skelley, Geoffrey. "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Sheets. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
5. "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Hardeman County, Tennessee". United States Census Bureau. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
6. "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Haywood County, Tennessee". United States Census Bureau. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
7. Rothenberg, Stuart (October 3, 2017). "What Happened to Mountain Republicans in the South?". Inside Elections. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
8. "State of Tennessee Democratic presidential primary" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 12, 2017. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
9. "State of Tennessee March 6, 2012 Democratic Primary Presidential Preference" (PDF). Tennessee Elections. Tennessee Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 12, 2017. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
10. "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 12, 2012.
11. "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
12. Nate Silver (March 4, 2012). "Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
13. "Tennessee Republican Primary - Election Results". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
14. "Election results March 2012. County totals" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on April 18, 2012. Retrieved March 29, 2012.
15. "Election 2012: Tennessee Republican Primary". The New York Times. March 8, 2012. Archived from the original on June 4, 2012.
16. "America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Tennessee". CNN. March 29, 2012. Archived from the original on June 4, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.
17. "2012 Tennessee Primary". Fox News. 2012. Archived from the original on June 4, 2012.
18. "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
19. "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
20. "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
21. "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
22. "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
23. "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
24. "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
25. Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos.

External links

• The Green Papers for Tennessee (Republican)
• The Green Papers for Tennessee (Democratic)
• The Green Papers: Major state elections in chronological order

v t e State and district results of the 2012 United States presidential election
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• United States presidential elections in Tennessee
• 2012 Tennessee elections
• 2012 United States presidential election by state