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2016 United States presidential election in Utah

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Turnout	57.7%
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Evan McMullin Party Republican Democratic Independent Home state New York New York Utah Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Mindy Finn Electoral vote 6 0 0 Popular vote 515,231 310,676 243,690 Percentage 45.54% 27.46% 21.54%
County results Precinct results Trump   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Clinton   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% McMullin   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   90–100% Johnson   90–100% Tie/No Data
President before election Barack Obama Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Elections in Utah
Federal government Presidential elections 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Presidential primaries Democratic 2000 2004 2008 2016 2020 2024 Republican 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 U.S. Senate elections 1896 1897 1899 1901 sp 1903 1905 1908 1909 1911 1914 1916 1920 1922 1926 1928 1932 1934 1938 1940 1944 1946 1950 1952 1956 1958 1962 1964 1968 1970 1974 1976 1980 1982 1986 1988 1992 1994 1998 2000 2004 2006 2010 2012 2016 2018 2022 2024 2028 U.S. House of Representatives elections 1895 1896 1898 1900 AL sp 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 2nd sp 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2017 3rd sp 2018 2020 2022 2023 2nd sp 2024
State government General elections 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Gubernatorial elections 1895 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2010 sp 2012 2016 2020 2024 Attorney General elections 1996 2020 2024 Auditor elections 2024 State Senate elections 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 House of Representatives elections 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Ballot measures 2004 Amendment 3 2018 Proposition 4 2020 Amendment A
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Salt Lake County Mayoral elections 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
v t e

The 2016 United States presidential election in Utah was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election which was also held in the other 49 states and in the District of Columbia. Voters were asked to pick 6 electors to be pledged for a candidate in the Electoral College. The two main tickets of the election were the Republican one, consisting of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor Mike Pence, and the Democratic one, consisting of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

On March 22, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Utah voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican parties' respective nominees for president. The state uses a system of semi-closed primaries, meaning that voters registered with a specific party can vote in that party's primary, while voters who are unaffiliated can vote in the primary of one party of their choosing. Utah was won by Trump, who won the state with 45.5 percent of the vote, the lowest percentage for any Republican since George H. W. Bush in 1992. Clinton received 27.5 percent of the vote, and Republican-turned-independent candidate Evan McMullin received 21.5 percent.

Trump's 18.08 point margin was the closest a Democrat has come to winning Utah since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson won by 9.73%. However, this was due to McMullin's strong third-party showing limiting Trump to under 50% of the vote; Clinton received a smaller percentage of the popular vote than five other Democrats in this same time period (Barack Obama in 2008, Bill Clinton in 1996, Michael Dukakis in 1988, Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Hubert Humphrey in 1968).

This was one of only three states, the others being Idaho and Vermont, where the Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson did not obtain third place, as McMullin beat him in Idaho and Utah, and write-in votes for Bernie Sanders (who was no longer running for president) beat him in Vermont. Trump also became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Salt Lake or Summit Counties since William McKinley in 1896 and 1900, respectively. The state was one of 11 (along with the District of Columbia) that shifted towards the Democrats, and the largest of any of the states that did so.

Caucus elections

Utah held its presidential caucuses on March 22, 2016.

Democratic caucus

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential caucus ballot:

• Hillary Clinton
• Bernie Sanders
• Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)

Republican caucus

Three candidates appeared on the Republican presidential caucus ballot:

• Ted Cruz
• John Kasich
• Donald Trump

General election

Voting history

The state of Utah has given its electoral votes to the Republican ticket in every election year since 1968 and only once voted for a Democratic candidate in elections since 1952 (in 1964). The state has a majority of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church) population, which on the national level voted 78 percent to 21 percent for Mitt Romney in 2012. This very heavily contributed to Mitt Romney winning the state by a margin of 73 percent to 25 percent in the 2012 election. However, Donald Trump's criticism of Romney's faith on the campaign trail in 2016 angered many Republican voters. Polls suggested that Utah might be a strong state for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson as a protest vote against Trump. As a result, Larry Sabato's online election forecaster, Sabato's Crystal Ball, downgraded their rating of the Utah contest from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" on June 23.

Evan McMullin, a conservative independent candidate, had also been viewed by voters in Utah as another alternative, given that it is also his home state. According to one poll released on October 12, Trump and Clinton were seen as virtually tied in Utah at 26%, with McMullin polling at 22%. McMullin's rise was the result of further Republican backlash against Trump following the release of a controversial video from 2005 showing Trump bragging about obscene sexual conduct with women. In a poll conducted by Emerson College from October 17–19 with a sample size of 700 people, McMullin placed first with 31 percent ahead of Trump by a 4 percent margin, who had 27 percent of support, while Clinton polled in third at 24 percent. This was the first conducted statewide opinion poll of the 2016 election where a third-party candidate has placed first.

Predictions

Polling

Donald Trump won almost every poll, except for one poll showing him tied with Hillary Clinton and Evan McMullin, and another showing McMullin with 31% of the vote, ahead of Trump's 27% and Clinton's 24%. The final RCP average showed Trump with 37% to Clinton's 27%, Evan McMullin's 25% and Gary Johnson with 3.5%.

Candidates on the ballot

The following candidates were listed on the ballot:

• Donald Trump & Mike Pence (Republican Party)
• Evan McMullin & Nathan Johnson (Not affiliated with any Party)
• Hillary Clinton & Tim Kaine (Democratic Party)
• Gary Johnson & William Weld (Libertarian Party)
• Darrell Castle & Scott N. Bradley (Constitution Party)
• Jill Stein & Ajamu Baraka (Green Party)
• Rocky De La Fuente & Michael Steinberg (Reform Party)
• Rocky Giordani & Farley Anderson (Independent American Party)
• Alyson Kennedy & Osborne Hart (Socialist Workers Party)
• Monica Moorehead & Lamont Lilly (Workers World Party)

Candidates not on the ballot

The following were certified by the state as "write-in candidates", which means that votes given to these persons would be counted:

• Stephen Paul Parks
• Mike Smith & Daniel White
• Laurence Kotlikoff & Edward Leamer
• Tom Hoefling & Steve Schulin
• David Limbaugh & Bo Gingrich
• Dustin Baird & Brandon Russell
• Andrew D. Basiago & Karen D. Kinnison
• Emidio Soltysik & Angela Nicole Walker
• Tony Valdivia & Aaron Roy Barriere
• Cherunda Fox & Roger Kushner
• Sheila "Samm" Tittle & R. Charles Casper-Kacprowicz
• Robert L. Buchanan & Jason A. Washington
• Marshall Schoenke & James Creighton Mitchell Jr.
• Janet Reid & John E. Reid
• Jamin Burton & Victor Neves

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Salt Lake (largest city: Salt Lake City)
• Summit (largest city: Park City)

By congressional district

Trump won all four congressional districts.

Analysis

Utah gave the Republican nominee a 45 percent plurality and thus awarded him six electoral votes. This was the lowest percent of the vote Trump received in a state he won in 2016. Trump received a much lower percentage of the vote in Utah than did Mitt Romney in 2012. In particular, Trump underperformed Romney by over 30 percentage points in the Provo-Orem, Logan, and Ogden metropolitan areas. Meanwhile, Clinton improved on Obama's performance in all of these areas. Trump received only 45 percent of the vote among Utah members of the LDS Church, barely half the proportion that Romney won in 2012. This was also much lower than the 61 percent of the LDS Church's vote Trump received nationally.

Evan McMullin's 21.3 percent of the vote is the strongest third-party performance in any state since Ross Perot during the 1992 presidential election. He finished second ahead of Clinton in fifteen of Utah's twenty-nine counties, becoming the first third-party candidate since Perot to outpoll a major party candidate in any county nationwide, and only the fifth since 1928 to do so in any non-Southern county. In Utah County, he received almost thirty percent of the vote, about twice as much as Clinton and more than any non-Republican presidential candidate since 1968.

Had McMullin won Utah, he would have become the first nationally nonpartisan candidate since George Washington to win a state in 224 years since Washington's reelection in 1792, and ultimately the first nonpartisan candidate to win a state west of the Mississippi River.

As of the 2024 election, this is the most recent election where Grand County voted Republican.

See also

• United States presidential elections in Utah
• First presidency of Donald Trump
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

Notes

1. In 1992, George H. W. Bush won Utah by only 16.02 points; however, this was ahead of Ross Perot. Bill Clinton lost Utah by 18.71 points in that election.
2. ^ In counties where McMullin placed second, ahead of Clinton, the Margin given is Trump's vote and percentage minus McMullin's vote and percentage.
3. Perot exceeded McMullin’s Utah performance in twenty-six of the fifty states in 1992, with his best performance being 30.44 percent in Maine.
4. The other four were William Lemke in the North Dakota counties of Burke, Divide, Williams, Mountrail and Towner in 1936, George Wallace in Utah’s own Kane County in 1968, John G. Schmitz in the four Idaho counties of Fremont, Jefferson, Lemhi and Madison in 1972, and Perot in numerous counties in 1992 and a few in 1996.
5. Robert Marion La Follette senior in 1924 did win his home state of Wisconsin under an “Independent” banner, and exceeded McMullin performance under a similar “Independent” banner in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nevada and Oregon. In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt also exceeded McMullin’s vote share under the “Independent” banner in Kansas, as did James B. Weaver in South Dakota in 1892.

References

1. "Voter turnout in United States elections". Ballotpedia. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
2. "2016 Primary Schedule – 2016 Election Central". Uspresidentialelectionnews.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
3. "2016 General Election Results" (PDF). November 28, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 14, 2021. Retrieved April 23, 2017.
4. Utah Democratic Party
5. Bickel, Joshua (November 7, 2012). "How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis". Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
6. Schleifer, Theodore (March 19, 2016). "Trump on Romney: 'Are you sure he's a Mormon?'". CNN. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
7. Azari, Julia (July 6, 2016). "The States That Love (And Hate) Third-Party Candidates". FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
8. Kondik, Kyle; Sabato, Larry; Skelley, Geoffrey. "The Electoral College: Map No. 2". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
9. "UT Statewide Presidential Polling October 2016 Memo - Y2.pdf" (PDF). Dropbox. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
10. Dennis Romboy (October 11, 2016). "Poll: Trump falls into tie with Clinton among Utah voters". Deseret News. Archived from the original on October 12, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
11. "Emerson College Polls: Utah breaking for third-party candidate McMullin. Trump loses ground in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Missouri. Ayotte (R-NH) and Blunt (R-MO) are tied in Senate bids, while Toomey (R-PA) is holding on" (PDF). Media.wix.com. Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
12. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
13. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
14. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
15. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
16. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
17. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
18. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
19. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
20. "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Utah: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein vs. McMullin".
21. "Statewide General Election Results" (PDF). Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Utah. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
22. "Statewide General Election Results" (PDF). Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Utah. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
23. "Here's a map of the US counties that flipped to Trump from Democrats". www.cnbc.com. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
24. "Trump, Clinton underperformed in Utah's four Congressional Districts in 2016". Utah Policy. March 28, 2017.
25. "2016 election results: Utah". edition.cnn.com.
26. Roche, Lisa Riley (September 26, 2018). "Poll: Majority of Utahns don't want second term for Trump". KSL. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
27. "See a Map That Shows Exactly Why Trump Won". Time. December 1, 2016. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
28. Florida, Richard (December 7, 2016). "The Metro Areas That Swung for Trump and Clinton". Citylab. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
29. Gehrke, Robert (November 18, 2016). "While Mormons nationally stuck with Trump, in Utah he lagged". Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
30. "2016 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
31. McCombs, Brady (November 9, 2016). "Trump wins Utah to extend GOP's 5-decade winning streak". Associated Press. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
32. England, Katie (November 28, 2016). "Utah County gave Evan McMullin highest percentage of votes of any non-Republican since 1968". Daily Herald. Archived from the original on May 5, 2019. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
33. Dave Leip. "1924 Presidential General Election Results – Wisconsin". Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas.

External links

• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived 2016-11-08 at the Wayback Machine
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
• Official final canvass Archived May 14, 2021, at the Wayback Machine

v t e State and district results of the 2016 United States presidential election
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• 2016 United States presidential election by state
• United States presidential elections in Utah
• 2016 Utah elections