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Yuan Peng (Chinese: 袁鹏) is a Chinese intelligence officer and political scientist specializing in analysis of the United States for the Ministry of State Security (MSS). He previously headed the 11th bureau of the MSS, commonly known as the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a unit specializing in overt and open-source intelligence collection and international academic outreach. He is considered one of the ministry's foremost analysts on the United States.

Yuan is noted for coining the phrase "great changes unseen in a century" to refer to China's position in contemporary geopolitics. The term has since become a major topic of academic discussion and has been incorporated into the foreign policy discourse of Chinese leader Xi Jinping. He is a member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

According to media reports, Yuan is now a vice minister of state security under the name Yuan Yikun (袁亦鲲).

Biography

Yuan Peng, born in 1963, is a Chinese political scientist who has spent most of career studying U.S. politics. Yuan has lived in the United States and been a visiting fellow at U.S. think tanks including Brookings Institution and the Atlantic Council. At Brookings, Yuan was a visiting fellow for its Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies. He was a board member of the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

Yuan is a former president of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a foreign policy think-tank and the 11th bureau of the Ministry of State Security. During his CICIR presidency, Yuan developed the concept of holistic national security.

Yuan is a member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Congress.

According to a Hong Kong media report cited by The New York Times and Lianhe Zaobao, Yuan is now a Vice Minister of the Ministry of State Security and uses the name Yuan Yikun.

Significant views

Yuan was the first to use the term "great changes unseen in a century" to refer to China's position in contemporary geopolitics. He began using the term in his essays following the 2007–2008 financial crisis. It became prominent following the publication of his book Changes Unseen in 400 Years: From Westphalia to a New World Order and ultimately became a part of CCP general secretary Xi Jinping's foreign policy discourse. Yuan's book described the Peace of Westphalia as the first major event in the formation of the current world order, followed by the Treaty of Versailles and the Yalta Conference. Yuan wrote that the world is now going through a fourth major change as a result of global population change, the advancement of technology through a Fourth Industrial Revolution, climate change (including energy transitions), and a shift in geopolitical power from the West to the East.

See also

• Foreign policy of China

References

1. ^ Wong, Edward; Barnes, Julian E.; Xiao, Muyi; Buckley, Chris (2023-12-27). "Chinese Spy Agency Rising to Challenge the C.I.A." The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2024-03-27. Retrieved 2024-11-16. The M.S.S. has also been elevating experts on the United States. Early this year, one such analyst, Yuan Peng, president of the main research institute, appeared under a new name, Yuan Yikun, as a vice minister of the ministry itself. Earlier in his career, Mr. Yuan often mixed with American scholars, some of whom saw him as a coolheaded observer of Washington. While president of the research institute, Mr. Yuan became a champion of Mr. Xi's sweeping concept of "overall national security," which casts the United States as the main threat to China's ascent. "Biden said 'America is back,' but the world is not the same as it was, and if it can't keep up with massive global changes, then this changing world will inevitably slip from U.S. control," Mr. Yuan wrote in an international strategy assessment published in early 2022. "In judging current American grand strategy a few decades from now, its biggest mistake may be seen as choosing China as an enemy.
2. ^ "港媒：美国问题专家袁鹏 改名袁亦鲲出任国安部副部长" [US expert Yuan Peng changed his name to Yuan Yikun and became deputy minister of the Ministry of State Security]. Lianhe Zaobao (in Chinese). 2023-02-22. OCLC 1126435600. Archived from the original on 2024-09-16. Retrieved 2024-11-16.
3. "Yuan Yi Kun, strategist for Guoanbu's new US approach". Intelligence Online. 2023-02-10.
4. Hsiao, Russell (2023-08-23). "Personnel Changes at the PRC's Organs for Taiwan Intelligence Analysis". Global Taiwan Institute. Archived from the original on 2023-11-03. Retrieved 2024-11-16.
5. ^ "About Peng Yuan". Nuclear Threat Initiative.
6. ^ Bachulska, Alicja; Leonard, Mark; Oertel, Janka (2 July 2024). The Idea of China: Chinese Thinkers on Power, Progress, and People (EPUB). Berlin, Germany: European Council on Foreign Relations. ISBN 978-1-916682-42-9. Archived from the original on 17 July 2024. Retrieved 22 July 2024.
7. "Yuan Peng". Jamestown Foundation. Retrieved 2024-07-23.
8. Joske, Alex (2022). Spies and Lies: How China's Greatest Covert Operations Fooled the World. Hardie Grant Books. pp. 24–29, 117. ISBN 978-1-74358-900-7. OCLC 1347020692.
9. "中国人民政治协商会议第十四届全国委员会委员名单-新华网" [List of members of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference]. Xinhua (in Chinese). Archived from the original on 2023-02-02. Retrieved 2024-07-23.

v t e Ministry of State Security
(MSS Headquarters: Yidongyuan, Xiyuan, Haidian District, Beijing, China)
Organization	Headquarters bureaus Confidential Communication International Intelligence Political & Economic Intelligence Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao Analysis and Dissemination Operational Guidance Counterespionage Counterespionage Investigation Internal Security External Security CICIR Social Investigation Bureau CICEC CNITSEC Technical Reconnaissance Institute of Taiwan Studies Imaging Intelligence Enterprises United States California Counterterrorism Municipal bureaus Beijing Detention Center Chongqing Shanghai Tianjin Provincial departments Anhui Fujian Gansu Guangdong Guizhou Hainan Hebei Heilongjiang Henan Hubei Hunan Jiangsu Jiangxi Jilin Liaoning Qinghai Shaanxi Shandong Shanxi Sichuan Yunnan Zhejiang Departments in autonomous regions Guangxi Inner Mongolia Ningxia Tibet Xinjiang XPCC Schools University of International Relations Hangzhou [zh] Jiangnan Social University Research institutes Nanjing Institute of Information Technology Front organizations Nanshan Temple Guanyin of Nanshan China Institute for Innovation and Development Strategy China National Technical Import and Export Corporation
Ministers	Ling Yun Jia Chunwang Xu Yongyue Geng Huichang Chen Wenqing Chen Yixin
Major international operations	Chinese intelligence activity abroad Cyberwarfare by China China's peaceful rise
Notable works	State Security Bulletin Journal of Jiangnan Social University Contemporary International Relations
Activities by country	Canada United States African Union

• Foreign policy and strategy think tanks in China
• Members of the 14th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference
• Chinese academics
• Chinese political scientists
• Living people
• Vice ministers of state security of the People's Republic of China