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2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian crisis
Part of the Russo-Ukrainian War
US intelligence assessment on the movement of Russian troops near the Russo-Ukrainian border (3 December 2021). It is estimated that Russia had deployed about 70,000 troops, mostly at a distance of 100 to 200 kilometres (62 to 124 mi) from the Russo-Ukrainian border. Estimations believe the number could increase to 175,000.
Date Initial: March 2021 (2021-03) – April 2021 (2021-04) (1 month); Renewal: October 2021 (2021-10) – present (3 years, 2 months) Location Ukraine Status Ongoing
Parties involved in the crisis
Russia Belarus Donetsk PR Luhansk PR	Ukraine Supported by: Canada Lithuania Poland Sweden Turkey United Kingdom United States Belarusian opposition
Commanders and leaders
Vladimir Putin Mikhail Mishustin Sergey Lavrov Sergey Shoygu Valery Gerasimov Alexander Lukashenko Roman Golovchenko Viktor Khrenin Viktor Gulevich Alexander Volfovich Denis Pushilin Vladimir Pashkov Leonid Pasechnik Sergey Kozlov	Volodymyr Zelenskyy Denys Shmyhal Dmytro Kuleba Oleksii Reznikov Andrii Taran Valerii Zaluzhnyi Ruslan Khomchak
Strength
900,000 Armed Forces, 554,000 Paramilitary, 2,000,000 Reserve Forces • including 175,000 at the Ukrainian borders 45,350 Armed Forces, 110,000 Paramilitary, 289,500 Reserve Forces 20,000 14,000	209,000 Armed Forces, 102,000 Paramilitary, 900,000 Reserve Forces Training mission: 200 (Operation Unifier) 165 (JMTG-U) 53 (Operation Orbital) 40 (JMTG-U) 26 (JMTG-U) 3 (Operation Unifier)

In March and April 2021, Russia massed about 100,000 soldiers and military equipment near its border with Ukraine, representing the highest force mobilization since the country's annexation of Crimea in 2014. This precipitated an international crisis and generated concerns over a potential invasion. Satellite imagery showed movements of armor, missiles, and other heavy weaponry. The troops were partially removed by June. The crisis was renewed in October and November 2021, when over 100,000 Russian troops were again massed near the border by December.

The ongoing crisis stems from the protracted Russo-Ukrainian War that began in early 2014. In December 2021, Russia advanced two draft treaties that contained requests of what it referred to as "security guarantees" including a legally binding promise that Ukraine would not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as well as a reduction in NATO troops and military hardware stationed in Eastern Europe and threatened unspecified military response if those demands were not met in full. The United States and other NATO members have rejected these requests, and warned Russia of "swift and severe" economic sanctions should it further invade Ukraine. Bilateral U.S.-Russia diplomatic talks were held in January 2022, but those failed to defuse the crisis.

The crisis has been described by some commentators as one of the most intense since the Cold War.

Background

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, both Ukraine and Russia continued to retain close ties. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to abandon its nuclear arsenal and signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances on the condition that Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States would issue an assurance against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine. In 1999, Russia was one of the signatories of the Charter for European Security, where it "reaffirmed the inherent right of each and every participating State to be free to choose or change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance, as they evolve".

Despite being a recognized independent country since 1991, as a former USSR constituent republic, Ukraine had been perceived by the leadership of Russia as being part of its sphere of influence. Romanian analyst Iulian Chifu and his co-authors in 2009 opined that in regards to Ukraine, Russia has pursued an updated version of the Brezhnev Doctrine, which dictates that the sovereignty of Ukraine cannot be larger than that of the Warsaw Pact's member states prior to the collapse of the Soviet sphere of influence during the late-1980s and early-1990s. Following weeks of protests as part of the Euromaidan movement (2013–2014), pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych and the leaders of the Ukrainian parliamentary opposition on 21 February 2014 signed a settlement agreement that called for an early election. The following day, Yanukovych fled from Kyiv ahead of an impeachment vote that stripped him of his powers as president. Leaders of the Russian-speaking eastern regions of Ukraine declared continuing loyalty to Yanukovych, causing the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine. The unrest was followed by War in Donbas in April 2014 with the creation of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, both heavily supported by Russia, as well as the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia.

In July 2021, Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, published an essay titled On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians, in which he re-affirmed his view that Russians and Ukrainians were "one people". American Historian Timothy Snyder has described Putin's ideas as imperialism. British journalist Edward Lucas described it as revisionist. Other observers have noted that the Russian leadership has a distorted view of modern Ukraine and its history.

Russia has said that a possible Ukrainian accession to NATO and the NATO enlargement in general threaten its national security. In turn, Ukraine and other European countries neighboring Russia have accused Putin of attempting to restore the Soviet Empire and of pursuing aggressive militaristic policies.

Initial tensions (March–April 2021)

First Russian military buildup

On 3 March 2021, separatists from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic reported they had been granted permission to use "preemptive fire for destruction" on Ukrainian military positions. Leonid Kravchuk, leader of the Ukrainian delegation of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine (TCG), condemned the statements as a breach of the Minsk agreements. On 16 March, the SBGS border patrol in the Sumy Oblast spotted a Mil Mi-8 helicopter flying from Russia trespassing approximately 50 metres (160 ft) into Ukrainian territory before heading back to Russian airspace. 10 days later, Russian troops fired mortars at Ukrainian positions near the village of Shumy, killing 4 Ukrainian servicemen. Russia has refused to renew the ceasefire in Donbas on 1 April.

Beginning from 16 March, NATO began a series of military exercises known as Defender Europe 2021. The military exercise, one of the largest NATO-led military exercises in Europe for decades, included near-simultaneous operations across over 30 training areas in 12 countries, involving 28,000 troops from 27 nations. Russia has criticized NATO for holding Defender Europe 2021. It has deployed troops to its western borders for military exercises in response to NATO's military activities.

On 24 March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed Decree 117/2021 approving the "strategy of de-occupation and reintegration" of the Russian-occupied territories of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.

By 30 March, Colonel general Ruslan Khomchak, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine revealed intelligence reports suggesting a military buildup by the Russian Armed Forces at the outskirts of Ukraine in preparations for the Zapad 2021 exercise. 28 Russian battalion tactical groups were situated along the Russo-Ukrainian border and at Russian-occupied territories (primarily Crimea, Rostov, Bryansk and Voronezh). According to Komchak, the buildup posed "a serious threat" to Ukraine. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Vladimir Putin, disagreed the Ukrainian statements, claiming the military movements 'are not of any concern' for neighboring countries. Instead, the decisions were made to deal on matters of 'national security'.

Between late-March and early-April, the Russian military moved large quantities of arms and equipment from western and central Russia, and as far away as Siberia, into occupied Crimea and the Pogonovo training facility 17 km south of Voronezh. Unofficial Russian sources, notably in the popular Telegram channel Military Observer (affiliated with the Russian security forces), published a video of the flight of a group of Russian Kamov Ka-52 and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters. It was emphasized by the original sources that the flight allegedly took place on the Russo-Ukrainian border.

Continued violence and escalation

Russian and pro-Kremlin media made allegations on 3 April accusing a Ukrainian drone attack of causing the death of a child in the Russian-occupied part of Donbas. However, no further details were given surrounding the incident. Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the Russian State Duma believed that Ukrainian leaders should be "held responsible for the death", while proposing to exclude Ukraine from the Council of Europe. On 5 April, Ukrainian representatives of the Joint Centre of Control and Coordination (JCCC) sent a note to the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine regarding pro-Russian intentions to falsify the accusations. The next day, the mission confirmed the death of a child in Russian-occupied Donbas, but failed to establish a link between the purported "Ukrainian drone strike" and the child's death.

On 6 April, a Ukrainian serviceman was killed as a result of shelling of Ukrainian positions near the town of Nevelske in Donetsk Oblast. Another soldier was killed near Stepne by an unknown explosive device. As a result of the shelling, the water pumping station located in the "gray-zone" between the villages of Vasylivka and Kruta Balka at South Donbas was de-energized, causing the suspension of water supplies at over 50 settlements. Shortly after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine blocked the flow of the Northern Crimean Canal, which had supplied 85-percent of Crimea's water. Crimea's reservoirs were subsequently depleted and water shortages ensued, with water reportedly only being available for three to five hours a day in 2021. The New York Times has cited senior American officials mentioning securing Crimea's water supply could be an objective of a possible incursion by Russia.

Russia has transferred ships between the Caspian Sea and Black Sea. The transfer had involved several landing craft and artillery boats. Interfax has reported on 8 April that the crews and ships of the Caspian Flotilla will pass the final naval exercises in cooperation with the Black Sea Fleet.

On 10 April, Ukraine invoked Paragraph 16 of the Vienna Document and initiated a meeting in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) on the surge of Russian troops at regions near the Russo-Ukrainian border and Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine's initiative was supported by several countries, but the Russian delegation failed to appear at the meeting and refused to provide explanations.

On 13 April, Ukrainian consul Oleksandr Sosoniuk was detained in Saint Petersburg by the Federal Security Service (FSB), allegedly while "receiving confidential information" during a meeting with a Russian citizen. Sosoniuk was later expelled from Russia. In response, Yevhen Chernikov, a senior Russian diplomat of the Russian embassy in Kyiv, was declared a persona non grata in 19 April in Ukraine and was forced to leave the country within 72 hours.

On 14 April, in a meeting in Crimea, Nikolay Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of Russia (SCRF) accused Ukrainian special services of trying to organize "terrorist attacks and sabotage" on the peninsula.

On the night between 14 and 15 April, a naval confrontation took place in the Sea of Azov, 40 kilometres (25 mi) from the Kerch Strait, between three Ukrainian Gyurza-M-class artillery boats and six vessels from the Coast Guard of the Border Service of the FSB. The Ukrainian artillery boats were escorting civilian ships when the incident occurred. It was reported that Ukrainian ships threatened to use airborne weapons to deter provocations from FSB vessels. The incident ended without any casualties.

The following day, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine reported that Russia had announced the closure of parts of the Black Sea from warships and vessels of other countries until October under the pretext of military exercises. The Ministry has condemned the decision as a "gross violation of the right of navigational freedoms" guaranteed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. According to the convention, Russia must not "obstruct maritime passages of the International strait to ports" in the Sea of Azov.

According to John Kirby, Pentagon Press Secretary, Russia had concentrated more troops near the border with Ukraine than in 2014. Russia reportedly imposed temporary restrictions on flights over parts of Crimea and the Black Sea from 20 to 24 April 2021, as stated in an international report for pilots.

On 22 April 2021, Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoygu announced a drawdown of military exercises with troops from the 58th and 41st Army, and the 7th, 76th, and 98th Guards Airborne Division returning to their permanent bases by 1 May after inspections in the Southern and Western military districts. Equipment at the Pogonovo training facility were to remain for the annual military exercise with Belarus scheduled in September 2021.

Renewed tensions (October 2021–present)

On 11 October 2021, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, published an article on Kommersant, in which he argued that Ukraine was a "vassal" of the West and that, therefore, it was pointless for Russia to attempt to hold a dialogue with the Ukrainian authorities, whom he described as "weak", "ignorant" and "unreliable". Medvedev concluded that Russia should do nothing in regards to Ukraine and wait until a Ukrainian government comes to power that is genuinely interested in improving relations with Russia, adding "Russia knows how to wait. We are patient people." The Kremlin later specified that Medvedev's article "runs in unison" with Russia's view of the current Ukrainian government.

In November 2021, the Russian Defense Ministry described the deployment of the U.S. warships to the Black Sea as a "threat to regional security and strategic stability." The ministry said in a statement, "The real goal behind the U.S. activities in the Black Sea region is exploring the theatre of operations in case Kyiv attempts to settle the conflict in the southeast by force."

Second Russian military buildup

Senior officials of the Biden administration reported that Russia had only withdrawn a few thousand troops since the previous military buildup. The New York Times estimated over 80,000 Russian troops still remain at the Russo-Ukrainian border by September 2021. In early November, reports of Russian military buildups prompted American officials to warn the European Union that Russia could be planning a potential invasion of Ukraine. On 13 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Russia has again amassed 100,000 troops in the border area, higher than an American assessment of approximately 70,000.

On 21 November, the head of the HUR MOU, Kyrylo Budanov, reported that Russia had concentrated more than 92,000 troops and deployed several Iskander short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) systems near the Russo-Ukrainian border. Budanov accused Russia of conspiring protests against vaccination against COVID-19 in Kyiv and other protest rallies in Ukraine to destabilize the country in preparations for a large-scale military invasion. According to Budanov, active Russian military actions should be expected between late-January and early-February 2022.

On 1 December, Russia accused Ukraine of deploying 125,000 troops (half of the capacity of the ZSU) at Donbas to confront pro-Russian separatists. Between November and December, Kremlin officials claimed that Ukraine had violated the Minsk Protocol. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied any "unusual" military activity and refuted claims of a possible invasion of Ukraine, while accusing Ukraine of planning "aggressive actions" against Donbas. Peskov urged NATO to stop "concentrating a military fist" near the Russo-Ukrainian border and arming Ukraine with modern weapons. Putin criticized Ukraine for using Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) against pro-Russian separatists at Donbas. Russia accused Ukraine of creating "provocations", moving heavy artillery weapons towards the front lines where separatists were fighting with Ukrainian forces.

On 3 December, the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Oleksii Reznikov, spoke of the possibility of a "large-scale escalation" by Russia during the end of January 2022, during a session at the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's national parliament). In early December 2021, an analysis conducted by Janes concluded that major elements of the Russian 41st Army (headquartered at Novosibirsk) and the 1st Guards Tank Army (normally deployed around Moscow) had been re-positioned to the west, reinforcing the Russian 20th and 8th Guards that were already positioned closer to the Russo-Ukrainian border. Additional Russian forces were reported to have moved to Crimea, reinforcing Russian naval and ground units that were already deployed there. American intelligence officials warned that Russia was planning an upcoming major military offensive into Ukraine scheduled to take place in January 2022.

Russia began a slow evacuation of its embassy staff at Kyiv beginning from January 2022. The motives of the evacuation remain unknown and were subjected to multiple speculations. By mid-January, an intelligence assessment produced by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence estimated that Russia were in its final stages of completing a military buildup at the Russo-Ukrainian border, amassing 127,000 troops at the region. Among the troops, 106,000 were land forces and the remainder being navals and air forces. Furthermore, there were 35,000 more Russian-backed separatist forces and another 3,000 Russian forces in rebel-held eastern Ukraine. The assessment estimated that Russia had deployed 36 Iskander SRBM systems near the border, many stationed within striking distance of Kyiv. The assessment also reported intensified Russian intelligence and combat sustainment units, such as movements of ammunition and field hospitals.

On 18 January 2022, Russian troops were reported to have sent an unspecified number of troops into Belarus under the auspices to conduct joint military exercises with the country in February. The headquarters of the Eastern Military District reportedly deployed to Belarus together with combat units drawn from the district's 5th Combined Arms Army, 29th Combined Arms Army, 35th Combined Arms Army, 36th Combined Arms Army and the Pacific Fleet's 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.However, several Ukrainian and American officials believed that Russia's decision was to use Belarus for an attack on Ukraine from the north due to the close proximity of the Belarusian–Ukrainian border with the city of Kyiv.

In a news conference, US President Joe Biden predicted that Russia "will move in" to Ukraine but Putin would pay "a serious and dear price" for an invasion and "would regret it". Biden added, "It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do. But if they actually do what they're capable of doing with the forces amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine." Biden's comment implied that NATO allies were split on the question of responding to a possible "minor incursion" into Ukraine. The remark was criticized by Ukrainian officials, several world leaders and members of the US Congress, as it would imply that low-level Russian aggression would not be met with a forceful response. As a result, Zelensky wrote, "We want to remind the great powers that there are no minor incursions and small nations. Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones." The Biden administration later clarified Biden's comments, mentioning, "...he has been 'absolutely clear' with President Putin. He has no misunderstanding. If any – any – assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion... It would be met with severe and coordinated economic response."

On 20 January, Russia announced plans to hold major naval drills involving all of its naval fleets containing 140 vessels, 60 planes and 10,000 soldiers.

In an interview to The Washington Post in January 2022, Zelensky warned that Russian forces could invade and take control of regions in eastern Ukraine, such as the Kharkiv Oblast. He also argued that an invasion would lead to a large-scale war between Ukraine and Russia. On January 28, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), General Philip M. Breedlove, gave an assessment of Russian military capabilities and strategic aims.

On 28 January, Reuters reported that Russia had added blood supplies and other medical materials "within recent weeks", according to 3 U.S officials, adding to fears of conflict.

Alleged Russian subversion attempts

On 26 November 2021, Zelensky accused the Russian government and Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov of backing a plan to overthrow the Ukrainian government. Russia has subsequently denied the claims.

On 10 January 2022, the SBU announced that it had arrested an alleged Russian military intelligence agent who was attempting to recruit operatives to conduct attacks at Odessa. 3 days later, Ukraine was struck by a cyberattack that affected the official websites of several Ukrainian ministries. It was later suspected that Russian hackers might be responsible in the incident.

Ukrainian military intelligence stated that Russian special services were preparing "provocations" against Russian soldiers stationed at Transnistria (a breakaway unrecognized state internationally considered to be part of Moldova) to create a pretext for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration later revealed that the Russian government had deployed saboteurs to eastern Ukraine to stage a fabricated attack against Russian proxy separatists at eastern Donetsk and Luhansk to provide Russia with another pretext for an invasion. The administration stated the Russian operatives were trained in urban warfare and explosives. The Russian government has denied the claims.

On 22 January, the British government accused Russia for organizing a plan to supplant Ukraine's government via military force and to install a pro-Russian puppet administration in the country, potentially led by Yevheniy Murayev, a former member of the Ukrainian parliament. Both Murayev and the Russian government denied the allegations, with the latter blaming "NATO countries led by the Anglo-Saxons" for the Russo-Ukrainian crisis. On 3 February, the US Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer claimed to have information that Russia was planning to use a fabricated video showing an Ukrainian fake attack, that Russia would use to justify an invasion. Subsequently, Associated Press confronted the State Department spokesperson to produce clear evidence in support of these allegations, but the journalist was clearly rebuffed under the pretext of "protected sources & methods".

Ukrainian defenses

In preparation of a possible renewed Russian invasion, the Ukrainian Ground Forces announced a meeting in April 2021 regarding territorial defenses to strengthen and protect the nation's borders and critical facilities, and to combat sabotage and reconnaissance groups at southern Ukraine. During the same month, Zelensky visited Ukrainian defensive positions at Donbas.

The United States estimated in December 2021 that Russia could assemble over 175,000 troops to invade Ukraine. Oleksii Reznikov, Ukrainian Minister of Defense, stated, "...we have 250,000 official members of our army. Plus, I said 400,000 veterans and 200,000 reservists. 175,000 (is) not enough to go to Ukraine." Reznikov claimed that Russia could launch a large-scale attack on Ukraine in late-January 2022.

Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces (the reserve component of the Ground Forces established after the 2014 war) recruited additional citizens and trained them in urban guerrilla tactics and firearms use. Such insurgency tactics, as reported by The New York Times, could support a resistance movement if the Russian military is able to overwhelm the Ukrainian military. Andrii Zahorodniuk, former Ukrainian Minister of Defense, wrote in January 2022 that in the case of a Russian invasion, the Russian forces would likely destroy "key elements of the country's military infrastructure" and will be able to "advance deep into Ukrainian territory", but would face difficulty in securing it. Zahorodniuk further stated, "Russian occupation forces will face highly motivated opponents fighting in familiar surroundings. By combining serving military units with combat veterans, reservists, territorial defense units, and large numbers of volunteers, Ukraine can create tens of thousands of small and highly mobile groups capable of attacking Russian forces. This will make it virtually impossible for the Kremlin to establish any kind of administration over occupied areas or secure its lines of supply."

Foreign support to Ukraine

In response to threats of a renewed invasion following the military buildup about 100,000 Russian troops near the Russo-Ukrainian border, the United States and other NATO member-nations provided military aid to Ukraine to assist the nation in bolstering its defenses. The first shipment of some 90 tonnes (200,000 lb) of military equipment arrived at Ukraine in January 2022. The US provided Ukraine FGM-148 Javelin antitank missiles, anti-armor artillery, heavy machine guns, small arms and ammunition, secure radio systems, medical equipment and spare parts. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley threatened US support for an anti-Russian insurgency within Ukraine, similar to the CIA's assistance to anti-Soviet mujahideen rebels in Afghanistan in the 1980s. According to James Stavridis, the former Supreme Allied Commander Europe at NATO, "The level of military support" for anti-Russian guerrilla fighters in Ukraine "would make our efforts in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union look puny by comparison."

In December, the US administration approved an additional defense aid of US$200 million to Ukraine. This was an addition to previous aids to Ukraine, making the total defense aid in 2021 worth US$650 million. Deliveries of lethal weapons from the US started the following month and included .50 BMG caliber ammunition, M141 Bunker Defeat Munition (BDM) and Javelin systems. The US also intends to transfer Mil Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine, previously flown by the Afghan Air Force. The Biden administration approved deliveries of American-made FIM-92 Stinger surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine. In January 2022, the Biden administration granted permission to the Baltic nations (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) to transfer American-made equipment to Ukraine. Estonia donated Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, while Latvia and Lithuania provided Stinger air defense systems and associated equipments.

Other NATO members also provided aid to Ukraine. Pre-existing British and Canadian military training programs were bolstered in January 2022. The British deployed additional military trainers and provided light anti-armor defense systems, while the Canadians deployed a small special forces delegation to aid Ukraine. On 17 January, British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced that Britain had supplied Ukraine with 1,100 short-range anti-tank missiles. On 20 January, Sky News reported that 2,000 short-range anti-tank MBT LAW missiles had been delivered via numerous Royal Air Force C-17 transport aircraft between the UK and Ukraine.

On 16 January, the Danish government decided to provide a €22 million (US$24.8 million) defense package for Ukraine. The Dutch and Spanish governments also deployed forces to the region in support of NATO. On 20 January 2022, Spanish Defence Minister, Margarita Robles announced that the Spanish Navy was being deployed to the Black Sea. A Meteoro ship acting as a minesweeper was already en route and the frigate Blas de Lezo departed on 22 January. She also announced that the Spanish government was considering deploying the Spanish Air Force (SAF) to Bulgaria. On 21 January, the Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wopke Hoekstra, said that the Netherlands was ready to deliver "defensive military support" to Ukraine. He explained that Ukraine had asked the Netherlands for arms assistance on 20 January. A parliamentary majority supported sending weapons to the country. Furthermore, the Netherlands said it would send two F-35s to Bulgaria as part of NATO's expanded air surveillance mission.

On 31 January 2021, Poland announced the decision to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine. It intends to provide significant quantities of light ammunition, artillery shells, light mortar systems, reconnaissance drones, and Polish-made Grom surface-to-air missiles.

On 5 February 2022, the first of 2,000 newly deployed US soldiers to Europe arrived in Germany and Poland, as part of the US attempt to bolster NATO's eastern flank as Russia deploys more forces along Ukraine's borders.

Diplomatic negotiations

Between 2 and 3 November 2021, CIA director William Burns met with senior Russian intelligence officials at Moscow to convey to the Kremlin regarding Biden's concern about the situation on the Russo-Ukrainian border. It was reported by CNN that Burns spoke by phone with Zelensky following the meeting at Moscow in a bid to ease Russian and Ukrainian tensions. Simultaneously, a high-ranking US Department of State official was dispatched to Ukraine.

On 15 November, acting German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian expressed concern in a joint communique about "the movements of Russian forces and military equipment near Ukraine," calling both sides to "show restraint". At the same time, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby confirmed that the United States continues to observe "unusual military activity" by Russia near the Russo-Ukrainian border. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed reports of "Russian military activity" in the area with Le Drian. On 16 November, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on the West to send Russia "a clear signal calling for reducing tension, avoiding any escalation in and around Ukraine." Stoltenberg added that the alliance records an "unusual concentration" of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border.

In early November 2021, Ukrainian intelligence assessed the information about the transfer of additional Russian troops to the Ukrainian borders to be "an element of psychological pressure." A week later, the Office of the President of Ukraine acknowledged that Russia was building up "specific groups of troops" near the border. Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba urged the French and German governments to prepare for a possible military scenario of Russia's actions against Ukraine.

Ukraine has intensified diplomatic efforts. On 15 November, Zelensky and the head of the European Council (EUCO) Charles Michel discussed "the security situation along the borders of Ukraine." On the same day, Kuleba held talks on the same issues in Brussels. The new Ukrainian defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, went to Washington D.C., where on 18 November he met with US secretary of defense Lloyd Austin. On 16 November, British defence secretary Ben Wallace visited Kyiv.

Israel maintains strong relationship with both Ukraine and Russia, and has sometimes acted as an interlocutor between the two nations. In April 2021, Zelensky asked the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to mediate the situation between himself and Putin. Israel raised the idea with Russia, who declined the request. In a meeting at Kyiv in October with Zelensky, Israeli President Isaac Herzog told Zelensky that the new Israeli government under Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was willing to resume efforts at Ukrainian-Russian mediation. Bennett raised the idea in a meeting with Putin two weeks later at Sochi, but Putin declined.

On 21 January 2022, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) announced in Pravda that its deputies would introduce a resolution in the State Duma to ask President Putin to officially recognize the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic.

In late January, the United States was again discussing sanctions with European allies in case of a Russian invasion. The US said the sanctions would be "swift and severe," including a "game over" strategy of targeting Russian banks, bond markets and the assets of elites close to Putin. Such an approach has also been criticized, and the proposed cut-off of Russian banks from the Visa, Mastercard and SWIFT payment systems was withdrawn. The challenge for US and NATO vis-à-vis Russia is the creation of credible deterrence with a plan for a de-escalatory sequence, including reductions in inflammatory rhetorics by the West, Russian troop withdrawals from the Russo-Ukrainian border, renewed Donbas peace talks, as well as a temporary halt on military exercises at the Black and Baltic Seas by the US, NATO or Russia.

A Normandy Format meeting was planned between Russian, Ukrainian, German and French senior officials at Paris on 26 January 2022, with a followup phone call between the French President Emmanuel Macron and Putin on 28 January. Ukraine fulfilled Russia's condition for a meeting at Paris and decided to withdraw a controversial draft law on the reintegration of Crimea and Donbas from the Ukrainian parliament, as it was viewed that the law had contradicted the Minsk peace agreements.

NATO–Russia security talks

On 7 December 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden and Putin talked by videoconference. One of the topics discussed was the crisis over Ukraine, the Russian side issuing a statement that said Putin highlighted the fact that it was "NATO that was undertaking dangerous attempts to develop Ukrainian territory and increase its potential along borders"; he demanded "reliable, legal guarantees" that would preclude NATO from expanding its territory toward Russia or deploying its strike weapon systems in countries bordering Russia.

On 15 December 2021, Russia formally handed over to the U.S. its draft treaties on security guarantees whereby the U.S. as well as NATO would undertake not to deploy troops in ex-Soviet states that were not NATO members, rule out any further expansion of the Alliance eastward, undertake not to deploy any forces in other countries in addition to that which were deployed as of 27 May 1997, and refrain from conducting any military activity in Ukraine as well as in other states in eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

Biden and Putin had a 50-minute phone call on 30 December 2021. According to a White House statement released afterwards, on the call, Biden urged Putin "de-escalate tensions with Ukraine". According to Putin's aide, Biden told Putin that the U.S. did not plan to deploy offensive weapon in Ukraine. Biden also warned that if Russia continued aggression against Ukraine, it would lead to "serious costs and consequences" such as the U.S. imposing additional economic sanctions on Russia, increasing U.S. military presence in the eastern members of NATO, and increased assistance to Ukraine. According to Putin's aide, Putin responded by saying that it would "cause a total severance of relations" between Russia and the US as well as the West at large. The following day, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov addressed the question about what Russia expected in response to its "security guarantees" proposals by saying, "...we will not allow anyone to drag out our initiatives in endless discussions. If a constructive response does not follow within a reasonable time and the West continues its aggressive course, Russia will be forced to take every necessary action to ensure a strategic balance and to eliminate unacceptable threats to our security."

On 10 January 2022, the U.S. and Russia held bilateral talks in Geneva, whose purpose had been defined by the two sides as "to discuss concerns about their respective military activity and confront rising tensions over Ukraine". The talks were led by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, and US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.

The Geneva meeting was followed by a meeting of the NATO–Russia Council in Brussels on 12 January that involved delegations from all 30 NATO member-countries and Russia to discuss (according to the official statement issued by NATO), "the situation in and around Ukraine, and the implications for European security". The Russian MoD statement following the meeting stated, "... brought Russian assessments of the current state in the field of Euro-security, and also gave explanations on the military aspects of the Russian draft agreement on security guarantees." The talks were judged by Russia to be unsuccessful. Following the meeting, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that, with respect to Ukraine's potential accession to NATO, all NATO Allies were "united on the core principle that each and every nation has the right to choose his own path" and "Russia doesn't have a veto on whether Ukraine can become a NATO member. ... at the end of the day, it has to be NATO Allies and Ukraine that decides on membership."

On 21 January, Lavrov and Blinken met at Geneva. Blinken noted afterwards that the meeting "was not a negotiation but a candid exchange of concerns and ideas". Following the meeting, Blinken said that the U.S. had made clear to Russia that its renewed invasion would "be met with swift, severe and a united response from the United States and our partners and allies."

The U.S. delivered a formal written response to Russia's security demands on 26 January. The response rejected Moscow's demand that NATO renounce its promise that Ukraine would be able to join NATO. Commenting on the content of the U.S. response, Blinken said that the document "include concerns of the United States and our allies and partners about Russia's actions that undermine security, a principled and pragmatic evaluation of the concerns that Russia has raised, and our own proposals for areas where we may be able to find common ground." On 1 February, Putin said the U.S. response had failed to address Moscow's "three key demands", namely the non-expansion of the Alliance, refusal to deploy offensive weapon systems close to the Russian borders, and bringing back the Alliance′s military infrastructure to the status quo of 1997.

United Nations Security Council (UNSC)

A UN Security Council meeting was convened on 31 January to discuss the ongoing crisis. Russia tried to block the meeting, but the request was rejected with ten votes for the meeting to go ahead, two against and three abstentions. During the debate, the US and Russia exchanged accusations among themselves. The US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, accused Russia of "aggressive behavior", and posing a "clear threat to international peace and security". She said Russia had made the "largest military mobilization for decades in Europe", and was trying "to paint Ukraine and Western countries as the aggressors to fabricate a pretext for attack". Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, accused the West of "hysterics" and of "whipping up tensions" over Ukraine. He accused the US of "stoking the conflict" and the UNSC meeting was "an attempt to drive a wedge between Russia and Ukraine". According to him, Ukraine was not abiding the Minsk Protocols of 2014 and 2015 to end the conflict with the separatists, and Western nations were "pumping Ukraine full of weapons" contrary to the Minsk Protocols. Nebenzya added that Ukraine’s violation of the Minsk Protocols could end in the ‘worst way’.

Ukrainian permanent representative at the UN, Sergiy Kyslytsya, said Russia had deployed 112,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders and in Crimea, with 18,000 deployed at sea off Ukraine’s coast. China’s permanent representative, Zhang Jun, said the meeting was counterproductive and "quiet diplomacy, not megaphone diplomacy" was needed.

No resolution was agreed at the meeting.

Reactions

Ukraine

In an interview with the French newspaper Libération in April 2021, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Russian troops' build-up near the border with Ukraine and the deterioration of the situation in eastern Ukraine were the gravest since the attack on Ukrainian sailors in the Kerch Strait in November 2018.

In November 2021, Kyrylo Budanov, the chief of Ukraine's military intelligence, said that Russia was preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February 2022. On 25 January 2022, defence minister Oleksii Reznikov said he saw no immediate threat of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine; he insisted that the threat had not significantly increased in eight years as "the Russian army ha not formed a strike group that would be able to carry out an invasion". On 28 January 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the West not to create a "panic" in his country over a potential Russian invasion, adding that constant warnings of an "imminent" threat of invasion are putting the economy of Ukraine at risk. Zelensky said that "we do not see a bigger escalation" than in early 2021 when Russian military build-up started. On 2 February, the U.S. White House said it would no longer describe a potential invasion as "imminent".

Russia

The Kremlin has repeatedly denied that it has any plans to invade Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed such fears as "alarmist". Sergei Naryshkin, director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, dismissed reports of a possible invasion of Ukraine asserting that it was "malicious propaganda by the US State Department". On 30 November 2021, Putin stated that an expansion of NATO's presence in Ukraine, especially the deployment of any long-range missiles capable of striking Russian cities or missile defense systems similar to those in Romania and Poland, would be a "red line" issue for Russia. In January 2022, Nikolay Zhuravlev, Vice Speaker of the Federation Council, warned that Europe would not receive natural gas, petroleum and metals from Russia in the event that Russia was disconnected from the SWIFT international payment system, moreover such move could not be feasible as it would require consent of all the countries participating in this system. In late January 2022, Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia's Security Council, said that the idea that Russia is “threatening Ukraine” was “absolutely ridiculous” and added: "We don't want war. We don't need that at all." Russia's deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko condemned the deployment of NATO troops, warships, and fighter jets in Eastern Europe, saying that the military alliance was "demonising Russia" in order to "justify military activity on eastern flank". Russia accused Ukraine of not implementing Minsk agreements reached in 2015 with the aim of establishing peace in Donbas.

International community

•  Albania and  Kosovo – Albanian Armed Forces Colonel Ardian Lulaj and Kosovar Head of Strategic Communication Colonel Sefer Isufi both stated in early December 2021 that their respective countries would be willing to deploy Albanian Armed Forces and Kosovo Security Forces in a putative future mission in Ukraine should the US decide to lead such an endeavor.
•  Australia – On 24 January, the Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne offered assistance to Ukraine in combating Russian cyber attacks. She also called on Russia to "de-escalate" tensions and urged Australians living in Ukraine to evacuate. Similar sentiments were expressed by Finance Minister Simon Birmingham, who warned that Australia would raise financial sanctions against Russia in the event of hostilities.
•  Belarus – The President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has stated that his country "does not want war", but if someone "pulls it, imposes sanctions or intimidates it", it will "almost give up" because, in his words, they are "invincible". He also stated that he would send "a whole contingent of the Belarusian army" to the border with Ukraine, because "Ukrainians allegedly began to draw troops there." On January 18, the Digital Forensic Research Lab of the Atlantic Council expert group published a review of the arrival of Russian troops in the Republic of Belarus. In particular, it was about unloading Russian BM-27 Uragan multiple rocket launchers at the Rechytsa station in the Gomel Oblast north of Kyiv.
•  Belgium – On 24 January 2022, Belgian Chief Head of Defense Michel Hofman said that Belgian forces were on standby in the Baltic, and prepared "to intervene within a certain amount of time, but today it is too early to say where and how" should the situation escalate.
•  Bulgaria – In early January, Bulgarian Minister of Defense Stefan Yanev responded to a parliamentary question on the deployment of additional military units in Bulgarian territory that Bulgaria opposes "escalation of military measures before all other diplomatic means are used" and that Bulgaria had as of yet "no national position" on the situation. On 21 January, Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov condemned the Russian call for Bulgaria to leave NATO and for NATO troops to be withdrawn from Bulgaria and Romania, while President Rumen Radev called the statement "unacceptable".
•  Canada – In January 2022, the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau stated that Canada would provide Ukraine with a CDN$120 million loan, but will not transfer military equipment.
•  China – Chinese leader and CCP general secretary Xi Jinping supported Russia's demand that Ukraine must never join NATO. On 14 January 2022, a spokesman of China's Foreign Ministry emphasized that all countries should observe a traditional UN Olympic Truce resolution "from seven days before the start of the Olympic Games until seven days after the end of the Paralympic Games". Under this timeframe, the proposed truce resolution would thusly begin on 28 January 2022 and conclude on 20 March 2022.
•  Croatia – On 19 January 2022, Croatia's prime minister Andrej Plenković, speaking to the Sabor, said that the situation in the east of Ukraine was very worrying and the most tense since 2014 and told: "Croatia does not want the situation to escalate and it will react clearly and resolutely to prevent any instability". On 25 January 2022, Croatia's president Zoran Milanović, noting what he called NATO's military build-up in the region and the Biden administration's "inconsistent and dangerous conduct" in international security affairs and stressing his role as Croatia's commander-in-chief, told the press, "We do not have any bearing on this and we will not have anything to do with this. I guarantee this. Croatia will not send any troops in case of an escalation. On the contrary, it will recall all troops, to the last Croatian soldier." Milanović went on to say that an "arrangement to meet Russia's security interests" ought to be found and that the acute crisis over Ukraine was "primarily determined by the dynamics of the U.S. domestic politics". On the same day, prime minister Andrej Plenković reacted to the president's remarks by saying that on hearing those he thought it was being said "by some Russian official"; he also offered apologies to Ukraine and its government for Milanović's accusation of Ukraine as "one of the most corrupt states" and reiterated that Croatia supported Ukraine's territorial integrity and no Croat troops were in Ukraine, while the president's statement "had nothing whatsoever to do with the policy of the government of the Republic of Croatia".
•  Czech Republic – On 26 January 2022, the Czech government decided to donate 4,006 152-mm artillery shells (used by the Czech Army for self-propelled DANA howitzers), worth 36.6 million korunas, to Ukraine.
•  Denmark – On 13 January 2022, Denmark sent four F-16 fighter jets and a frigate with a crew of 160 people to the Baltic states to reinforce the NATO Enhanced Forward Presence and patrol the sea.
•  Estonia,  Latvia and  Lithuania – On 10 January 2022, Lithuanian State Defense Council was convened to discuss the Russian-Ukrainian tensions. In response to the aggressive Russian military behaviour, the council decided to increase the number of troops and speed up military modernization plans. On 17 January, Latvia increased the military presence in the eastern part of the country. On 19 January, the Prime Minister of Estonia announced an extraordinary increase of defense spending by €380 million for the current fiscal year. The Baltic states also decided to accelerate their own acquisition of arms, including the joint rocket artillery system. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have also requested to increase the military deployments of NATO and American troops in the Baltics in order to deter the aggressive Russian behaviour.
•  European Union – On 24 January 2022, due to the conflict, the European Commission proposed €1.2 billion financial aid for Ukraine in grants and loans. The European Union is negotiating possible liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies with the United States, Qatar and Azerbaijan in case Russia stops gas exports to Europe.
•  Finland and  Sweden – Russian proposals that NATO would not accept new members received strong criticism by Sweden and Finland who have been maintaining neutrality. In January 2022, both President of Finland Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin insisted on Finland's right to decide what alliances it can join. Sweden expressed the same position that it is only up to the Swedish people to decide whether Sweden should join NATO. Russian threats have sparked the debate in both countries whether they should apply for NATO membership. On 13 January, Swedish Armed Forces announced that they were deploying troops to the strategic island of Gotland, as a response to unusual Russian military activity.
•  France – In April 2021, French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian, during a phone conversation with Ukrainian Minister for Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba, noted that France was anxiously monitoring the withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders of Ukraine and the temporarily occupied territories. He assured of France's continued support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The head of French diplomacy especially noted Ukraine's prudent and wise actions in the current situation.

  

•  Germany – In April 2021, during a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanded that the Kremlin head reduce its military presence near Ukraine's borders. In December 2021, German chancellor Olaf Scholz warned of "consequences" for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a Russian natural gas pipeline project operated by Gazprom, which delivers natural gas to Germany. In January 2022, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned that "any further escalation would carry a high price for the Russian regime — economic, political and strategic". Germany has been maintaining the policy of not providing Ukraine with lethal weapons. German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said that Germany wants to "de-escalate" tensions and that supplying weapons would "not be helpful". Ukraine also claimed that the German administration blocks the supply of arms though NATO. On 21 January 2022, it was reported that Germany blocked Estonia from exporting weapons of German-origin. Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks has called Germany's relationship with Russia (and China) as "immoral and hypocritical". On 26 January, Germany announced that it was going to ship 5,000 helmets to Ukraine, while reaffirming that it wasn't going to supply any lethal weapon. The mayor of Kyiv and former world heavyweight boxing champion Vitali Klitschko described this offer as "a joke".
•  Hungary – Hungarian Defence Minister Tibor Benkő declared that there is no need for NATO to deploy its troops in Hungary.
•  India – On 19 January 2022, US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman called up Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla and the two discussed “Russia’s concerning military build-up on Ukraine’s borders”. On 28 January, official spokesperson for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs Arindam Bagchi stated that the situation in Ukraine and the high-level discussions between Russia and the US were being closely monitored. The statement called "for a peaceful resolution of the situation through sustained diplomatic efforts for long term peace and stability in the region and beyond". On 29 January it was reported that the Indian Embassy in Ukraine had asked all Indians living there – mostly students in medical colleges – to register themselves so that it could provide information in a swift manner. Unlike other states, India did not evacuate its diplomats. The Indian Express highlighted the Indian Government's difficult situation: on one hand, it was concerned about Russia's "muscle-flexing", but with almost 60 per cent of India's military supplies being Russian-manufactured and with the ongoing military stand-off with China, it did not want to jeopardise its close military ties with Moscow; on the other hand, the US and Europe were also important strategic partners. Indian media outlets noted how hostility and sanctions against Russia would create problems for the country's S-400 missile deal and likely "push Moscow in the direction of Beijing, hence strengthening the Chinese".
•  Israel – Israel is considering airlifting thousands of Jews out of Ukraine as tension with Russia mounts.
•  Japan – Prime Minister of Japan Kishida Fumio said he and Biden would work closely to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine and "keep close contact with other allies and partners and continue communicating on the point that any attack will be met with strong action." In a tweet, Biden said it was "an honor to meet with Prime Minister Kishida to further strengthen the U.S.-Japan Alliance — the cornerstone of peace and security in the Indo-Pacific and around the world."
•  Moldova – President of Moldova Maia Sandu declared on an interview that the Moldovan authorities were looking closely into the situation in Ukraine and that certain measures were being taken to prepare for potential outcomes of the crisis. She also demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria, a breakaway territory legally and internationally considered as part of Moldova. Sandu also called for calm to the citizens of Moldova in the face of the developments in Ukraine and expressed her confidence in the possibility of a diplomatic solution. Later, Sandu met with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte and discussed with him the tensions in the Russia–Ukraine border. During the meeting, Rutte expressed his support for Moldova's territorial integrity in regards to Transnistria.
•  NATO – One of the Russian government's security demands forwarded to the United States and NATO in December 2021 was that NATO stop expanding eastwards, specifically never admit Georgia as well as Ukraine. NATO had repeatedly called upon Russia to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and condemned Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and support of separatists in eastern Donbas, calling for a resolution of the Donbas conflict via the Minsk agreements. In December 2021, as Russia continued a military buildup on Ukraine's borders, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly met with Ukrainian leaders to reaffirm the alliance's support for Ukraine, to call upon NATO members to enhance delivery of defensive weapon systems to Ukraine, and to counter Russian disinformation. NATO and the U.S. have re-affirmed NATO's "open door" policy, maintaining that countries should freely choose whether to join NATO or not. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on 13 January 2022 said: "No one else has the right to try to veto or interfere in that process. And this is about fundamental principles for European security. It's about the right for every nation to choose their own path." In an interview, Stoltenberg re-affirmed NATO's "dual track" approach to Russia, saying, "We are ready to engage in dialogue with Russia, but we will never compromise on core principles for European security....Russia has a choice to either engage in dialogue with NATO and Western allies or choose confrontation. We need to be clear-eyed about the prospect that Russia will — once again — use military force against Ukraine. We will provide support to Ukraine to enable them to strengthen their ability to defend themselves." On 24 January 2022, Jens Stoltenberg, noting a number of NATO countries′ announcements regarding ongoing or upcoming deployments, said, "I welcome Allies contributing additional forces to NATO. NATO will continue to take all necessary measures to protect and defend all Allies, including by reinforcing the eastern part of the Alliance."
•  New Zealand – New Zealand Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta stated that the New Zealand Government was concerned about the Russian military buildup on the Ukrainian border and supported Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. She called on Russia to reduce tensions in accordance with international law. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern echoed Mahuta's remarks, stating that New Zealand was considering applying targeted sanctions against Moscow.
•  Poland – Polish President Andrzej Duda announced that Ukraine can count on Polish support if Russia attacks, and called for a unified stance in Europe. On 21 January, the head of National Security Bureau Paweł Soloch stated that "supporting Ukraine is one of the key priorities of President Andrzej Duda's policy", while Duda and Zelensky discussed the possibility of further Polish and NATO defensive equipment deliveries.
•  Romania – The Minister of National Defence of Romania, Vasile Dîncu, said that, in the event of a new Russian–Ukrainian war, Romania would not be militarily involved and that it would remain in a strategic relationship with NATO and react together with the alliance in the face of such a hypothetical case. Furthermore, the President of Romania Klaus Iohannis urged the Romanian Armed Forces to be prepared for any aggression in the region, stating that the situation in Ukraine showed that measures of modernization and preparation of the Romanian military were necessary. Iohannis also called for a greater presence of NATO, the United States and other allies in the Black Sea region as a result of the tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
•  Slovakia – The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Slovakia, Ivan Korčok, stated that the ceasefire and the announcement of an increase in Russia's military power on the border with Ukraine are a matter of concern and call for de-escalation of tensions.
•  Spain – On 20 January, Spain started deploying aircraft, ships and NATO forces to Bulgaria.
•   Switzerland – On 21 January 2022, Switzerland continued to facilitate direct negotiations between Russia and the United States to avert an armed confrontation in Eastern Europe. Swiss President Ignazio Cassis explained during a press conference in Geneva "Switzerland is concerned over growing tensions. We are totally convinced that dialogue is the only way to reinforce security in Europe".
•  Taiwan – On 28 January 2022, President Tsai Ing-Wen instructed the National Security Council to establish a task force monitoring events in Ukraine. She compared Russia's military buildup to China's repeated invasion of Taiwan's ADIZ, stating that "Taiwan has faced military threats and intimidation from China for a long time. Therefore, we empathize with Ukraine's situation, and we also support the efforts of all parties to maintain regional security," and pleading for peaceful dialogue.
•  United Kingdom – The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, during a telephone conversation with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that his country was concerned about Russia's activities in the occupied Crimea and on the border with Ukraine. Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab has said that "there is a very significant risk Russia will invade Ukraine" and urged Putin to "step back from the brink". Foreign Secretary Liz Truss wrote on Twitter that the UK "will not tolerate Kremlin plot to install pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine." Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the Chief of the Defence Staff, warned that "a full invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale not seen in Europe since World War Two."
•  United States – On 2 April 2021, President Biden had his first telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. On 13 April, Biden had a telephone call with Russian president Putin; Biden "emphasized the United States' unwavering commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity"; Biden also voiced U.S. concern "over the sudden Russian military build-up in occupied Crimea and on Ukraine's borders, and called on Russia to de-escalate tensions." In mid-April 2021, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, along with the EU, UK, Australia, and Canada, sanctioned eight individuals and entities "associated with Russia's ongoing occupation and repression in Crimea." On 19 January 2022, President Biden said that he believed Russia would invade Ukraine. Biden said a full-scale invasion of Ukraine would be "the most consequential thing that's happened in the world in terms of war and peace" since World War II. On 22 January 2022, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv requested the evacuation of non-essential personnel along with their families by the United States Department of State. The State Department issued an advisory not to travel to Ukraine or Russia, citing ongoing tension along the Russia–Ukraine border and COVID-19.
•  Vatican City – On 23 January 2022, Pope Francis said, "I am following with concern the rising tensions that threaten to inflict a new blow to peace in Ukraine, and call into question the security of the European continent, with even wider repercussions".

Intergovernmental agencies

• International Energy Agency – IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that conflict between Russia and Ukraine "would major implications" on the natural gas prices, "if not leading to turmoil".

Civil society

• Anonymous (hacker group) – The decentralised hacking group had dedicated some of their defacements of websites such as those of belonging to the United Nations and the Polar Research Institute of China, to promote proposals in order to defuse the crisis, including by calling for the creation of a "neutral grouping" of countries "wedged between NATO and Russia" that would include Ukraine, Finland, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. Anonymous argued that the so-called "neutral security belt" could serve as an alliance similar to NATO or the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) that acts as a cordon sanitaire between NATO and CSTO countries in order to "assuage Russia's fears without NATO losing its face". Furthermore, they embedded Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft senior fellow Anatol Lieven's paper "Ending the Threat of War in Ukraine" at the defacement page and called for a referendum on whether to presumably follow the existing Minsk Protocol or hand over the separatist-controlled territories to a UN peacekeeping administration. Later, a second referendum in the separatist regions would then ask voters to choose to reunite with Ukraine, gain independence, or join Russia.
• Belarusian opposition – On 24 January, Belarusian hacktivists stated that they had disrupted Belarusian Railway "servers, databases and workstations" using ransomware, while leaving automation and security systems in place. They promised to decrypt the systems provided that 50 political prisoners were released and that Russian soldiers were prevented from entering Belarus. Dzmitry Bandarenka, coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign, told Charter 97 on 26 January 2022, that he believed that in the event of Russian aggression, tens of thousands of Belarusians would fight against the Russian Federation on Ukraine's side and defend their country's independence.
• Metropolis of Bessarabia – Representants of the Romanian Orthodox Metropolis of Bessarabia in Moldova announced that this institution was closely looking at the situation at the borders of Ukraine. The metropolis also published a statement asking for peace in the region and saying that it was praying for this to be the case.
• Russian intellectuals – On 30 January, 90 Russian intellectuals, including Lev Ponomaryov and Svetlana Gannushkina, issued a public statement on Echo of Moscow urging the Russian government to avoid starting an "immoral, irresponsible, and criminal" war between Russia and Ukraine. As of 1 February 2022, the statement had been signed by 2,000 Russian intellectuals.
• Ukrainian citizens – On 5 February 2021, from two to five thousand people in Kharkiv protested against the Russian threat to invade Ukraine.

See also

• Russia–NATO relations
• Russia–Ukraine relations
• Ukraine–NATO relations

Notes

1. The Donetsk People's Republic is an internationally unrecognized separatist state that declared its independence on May 2014, while only receiving recognition from two other partially-recognized quasi-states.
2. The Luhansk People's Republic is an internationally unrecognized separatist state that declared its independence on May 2014, while only receiving recognition from two other partially-recognized quasi-states.
3. Canada sent non-lethal military aid and instructors.
4. Lithuania sent ammunition and instructors.
5. Poland sent instructors
6. Sweden sent instructors
7. Turkey sold combat drones (specifically Bayraktar TB2s).
8. The United Kingdom sent weapons (specifically NLAW ATGMs) and instructors.
9. The United States sent ammunition, weapons and instructors.
10. Belarusian opposition assisting through cyberwarfare.

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319. "Thousands Of Russian Intellectuals, Activists Urge Kremlin To Avoid 'Immoral' War With Ukraine". Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. 1 February 2022. Archived from the original on 1 February 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2022.
320. "Thousands protest in Ukraine's Kharkiv against Russian threat". Al Jazeera English. 5 February 2022. Archived from the original on 5 February 2022. Retrieved 5 February 2022.
321. "Thousands of Ukrainians March In Kharkiv Against Russian Threat". Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. 5 February 2022. Archived from the original on 5 February 2022. Retrieved 5 February 2022.

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External links

• Russian draft treaties:
  • Agreement on measures to ensure the security of The Russian Federation and member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 17 December 2021, Archived 10 January 2022 at the Wayback Machine
  • Treaty between The United States of America and the Russian Federation on security guarantees, 17 December 2021, Archived 16 January 2022 at the Wayback Machine

• Russo-Ukrainian War
• Russia–Ukraine military relations
• Russian irredentism
• Conflicts in 2022
• Post-Soviet conflicts
• 2021 in Ukraine
• 2022 in Ukraine
• 2021 in Russia
• 2022 in Russia
• 2021 in international relations
• 2022 in international relations
• 2020s conflicts