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Climate migration

Climate migration is the displacement of people both internally within countries or internationally due to climate-related disasters, which include both rapid and slow onset events. Slow onset events describe natural disasters that are exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and occur over several years or decades. Rapid onset events have a distinct beginning and end, occurring in a matter of days. The number of climate migrants displaced by natural disasters globally increased 41 percent from 2008 to 2022, with some studies predicting that up to 1.2 billion people could be displaced by the year 2050. Concerns over universal water availability and quality have been raised, as both are impacted by rising temperatures. These impacts could lead to the rapid spread of diseases and food shortages, detrimentally impacting many people's lives. For the reasons thus mentioned, advocacy groups and institutions such as The International Human Rights Clinic at Harvard Law School have set their focuses on the intersection of climate change and human rights, in attempts to discern a framework that can be implemented when the right to clean water has been violated in international law.

Changing water patterns

The water cycle

The water cycle is an important system that moves the water on Earth around, cycling it continuously between the atmosphere, rivers, oceans, lakes, and glaciers, and groundwater supplies. This pattern is crucial aspect of how the Earth systems work, contributing weather patterns as we know them. However, climate warming is causing the water cycle to speed up, or intensify, a process known as water cycle intensification that contributes to more frequent and intense weather events, changing sea levels, and more extreme temperatures, facilitating the need for more climate migration and forcing many out of their homes. It is highly likely that global warming is increasing the average amount of precipitation and evaporation each year, allowing more moisture to enter into weather systems, in turn driving the mean wetness of wet seasons and events to increase. Continuing an increased warming over land as opposed to the ocean has led to increases the severity of droughts.

Trends

A 2004 analysis of water runoff found that it fluctuations in water runoff correlated with increases of carbon dioxide, leading to what the authors of the study described as the first time the link between the intensification of the water cycle and global warming has been shown by experimental-based evidence. A study conducted in 2000 found that all the places with long-term records in the Global Soil Moisture Data Bank, with samples representing a wide variety of geographies, were trending upwards in their soil moisture. Some other variables that have been explored pertaining to the intensification of the water cycle include precipitation, which is trending upwards at both regional and global scales in the 20th century, actual evapotranspiration, which was found to be increasing on a regional scale in the latter half of the 20th century, floods, which were found to have not changed or to be increasing on a regional scale in the 20th century, and droughts, which were found to be increasing on a regional scale in the latter half of the 20th century. Looking to the future, increased amounts of heavy precipitation are predicted, and, while flood frequency cannot conclusively be predicted, increased soil moisture is expected to increase the severity of flooding events.

Effects on migration

Analysis by the World Bank Group of data representing 64 countries between 1960 and 2015 found that a lack of water was a significant driver of increasing global migration, and that dry rainfall shocks (periods of time with precipitation levels significantly below average) are expected to have the most significant impact on migration of water related events.

Who is most affected

Several groups of people are disproportionately impacted by climate change and displacement globally. This includes those living in the Global South and small island developing states (SIDS), which are increasingly the most impacted by climate change, despite having contributed the least to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) historically. Regions that currently face the most water stress include the Middle East and North Africa, where 83% of inhabitants face high water stress, and South Asia, where 74% of inhabitants face high water stress. Indigenous communities are disproportionately displaced by climate change at seven times the rate of the entire global population. People of color whom are already impacted by socioeconomic inequalities are also disproportionately impacted by climate change, and are at higher risk of climate related health impacts than their white counterparts.

In terms of demographics, climate migration has been shown to disproportionately affect women, as many remain in dangerous environments to assume household responsibilities whilst men seek more prosperous livelihoods elsewhere. Another result of climate migration is the deepening of gender divides, as women are more likely to face discrimination and abuse, socioeconomic inequality, face lack of information and resources, and have the least capacity to respond to climate disasters. Children, especially older girls, are also extremely vulnerable to climate migration, as many have to sacrifice their education to take on more familial roles at home. Women and children are most often responsible for water collection and there tend to be the most impacted by water scarcity. They may also be impacted by torrential rains or floods which can result in school absences, or be separated from their families and forced to live in unstable living arrangements as a result.

Human rights law

Human rights law refers to a combination of international treaties and other instruments with the aim of protecting the rights of humans. It operates with the understanding that all humans have dignity and have basic, fundamental rights afforded to them. The Universal Declaration of Human RIghts, adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 1948, sets out fundamental human rights that should be afforded to all people, and was the first document to do so. This Declaration, combined with the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and its two Optional Protocols, and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, which add on to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, forms the International Bill of Human Rights. The right to life, right to freedom from torture and inhumane treatment, right to equal treatment before the law, right to privacy, and right to education and the enjoyment of benefits of cultural freedom and scientific progress are all examples of rights deemed fundamental by the International Bill of Human Rights. Access to water and sanitation also constitutes a fundamental human right recognized by the United Nations.

Despite the significance of certain rights being recognized as fundamental to the United Nations, enforcing this proves to be extremely difficult. A lack of effective follow up measures, disagreement among member states about whether or not to intervene, and a ban on the use of force have curtailed enforcement efforts by the United Nations. However, peer pressure from other states has emerged as an effective potential manner of promoting rule following.

Right to clean water

The right to safe and clean drinking water is recognized as a fundamental human right, essential for the full enjoyment of life and all human rights. In 2010, the United Nations General Assembly formally adopted a resolution declaring access to safe and clean drinking water as a human right. This right applies universally, including to displaced populations such as refugees and asylum seekers.

More recently, in 2020, the UN Human Rights Committee (HRC) set a precedent in Teitiota v. New Zealand, that forcibly returning a person to a place where their life would be at risk due to the impact of climate change may violate the right to life, according to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). This occurred after Ioane Teitiota, from the Pacific nation of Kiribati, was facing land disputes and inability to access safe drinking water as the result of the climate crisis, forcing him to migrate to New Zealand. However, in New Zealand he was denied asylum as a climate refugee and was then deported. According to the Oxford Human Rights Hub, "While the Applicant's claim was unsuccessful, the ruling has nevertheless been lauded as 'landmark' because the HRC accepted that states have an obligation not to forcibly return individuals to places where climate changes poses a real risk to their right to life. Consequently, it represents a significant jurisprudential development in the protection of climate refugees under international human rights law."

International obligations and refugee rights

Under international law, the denial of access to clean water constitutes a violation of states' obligations to uphold fundamental human rights. These obligations are enshrined in various international legal frameworks, including the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR). Specifically, Article 25 of the UDHR recognizes the right to a standard of living adequate for health and well-being, which includes access to clean water. These obligations extend to all individuals within a state's jurisdiction, regardless of their legal or migratory status. Refugees, as particularly vulnerable individuals, are entitled to adequate water and sanitation services to ensure their health, dignity, and well-being.

Challenge in refugee camps

Despite the legal framework, many refugee camps struggle to provide sufficient water and sanitation services. Inadequate infrastructure, limited resources, and overcrowding make it difficult to ensure a consistent and safe supply of clean drinking water. Refugee camps, often located in remote or resource-scarce areas, are particularly prone to these issues. Water quality can be compromised, and there may be severe limitations on the quantity and availability of clean water, exposing refugees to significant health risks such as waterborne diseases.

Implications & future action

The escalating impacts of climate change are rendering significant portions of the world uninhabitable, displacing millions of people annually. Droughts, water scarcity, and rising sea levels are among the primary environmental factors driving this displacement, forcing communities to abandon their homes. Rising temperatures exacerbate resource scarcity, intensifying competition for vital necessities such as water and arable land, and often contributing to conflicts that further force migration.

The UNHCR reports that approximately 32 million people were displaced in 2022 due to weather-related hazards, with numbers steadily increasing, a reminder of the immediate human cost of environmental crises. This number includes those affected by sudden disasters, such as hurricanes and floods, as well as those forced to migrate due to slow-onset events like desertification and sea-level rise. By 2050, experts predict the number of climate refugees could soar to an estimated 1.2 billion, driven by a combination of worsening environmental conditions and socio-economic vulnerabilities. This projection underscores the urgent need for coordinated global action to address the complex interplay of climate, migration, and security.

To mitigate the growing challenges posed by climate-driven migration, several international initiatives are in place, with notable examples being the European Green Deal and the Paris Agreement. The European Green Deal outlines a comprehensive strategy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, emphasizing renewable energy, sustainable industry, and the preservation of biodiversity. By addressing emissions at their source, the initiative aims to reduce the factors contributing to climate displacement. Similarly, the Paris Agreement, a landmark global accord, seeks to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C—preferably to 1.5°C—above pre-industrial levels. This agreement prioritizes international collaboration, mobilizing resources to help vulnerable nations adapt to climate impacts and strengthen resilience. Together, these efforts represent a critical step in addressing both the causes and consequences of climate-induced migration, though continued commitment and innovation will be essential to meet the scale of the challenge.

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• Effects of climate change
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