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{{Short description|none}} <!-- "none" is preferred when the title is already sufficiently detailed; see ] -->
{{Infobox Election
{{Use mdy dates|date=December 2017}}
| election_name = United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2012
{{Infobox election
| country = Wisconsin
| election_name = 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
| type = presidential
| country = Wisconsin
| ongoing =
| type = presidential
| previous_election = United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2006
| ongoing = no
| previous_year = 2006
| next_election = United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018 | previous_election = 2006 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
| previous_year = 2006
| next_year = 2018
| next_election = 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
| election_date = November 6, 2012
| next_year = 2018
| image1 =
| election_date = November 6, 2012
| nominee1 =
| image_size = x150px
| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)
| turnout = 72.5% (voting eligible)<ref name="VEP12">{{cite web |url=http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html |title=2012 General Election Turnout Rates |publisher=] |author=Michael McDonald |date=February 9, 2013 |access-date=April 3, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130424003112/http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html |archive-date=April 24, 2013 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}</ref>
| popular_vote1 =
| image1 = Tammy Baldwin, official photo portrait, color (cropped).jpg
| percentage1 =
| nominee1 = ''']'''
| image2 =
| party1 = Democratic Party (United States)
| nominee2 =
| popular_vote1 = '''1,547,104'''
| party2 = Republican Party (United States)
| percentage1 = '''51.41%'''
| popular_vote2 =
| image2 = File:Tommy Thompson 1 (3x4) a.jpg
| percentage2 =
| nominee2 = ]
| map_image =
| party2 = Republican Party (United States)
| map_size =
| popular_vote2 = 1,380,126
| map_caption =
| percentage2 = 45.86%
| title = U.S. Senator
| map_image = {{switcher |] |County results |]|Congressional district results |] |Precinct results |default=1}}
| before_election = ]
| map_size = 250px
| before_party = Democratic Party (United States)
| map_caption = '''Baldwin''': {{legend0|#a5b0ff|40–50%}} {{legend0|#7996e2|50–60%}} {{legend0|#6674de|60–70%}} {{legend0|#584cde|70–80%}} {{legend0|#3933e5|80–90%}} {{legend0|#0D0596|>90%}}<br />'''Thompson''': {{legend0|#ffb2b2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#e27f7f|50–60%}} {{legend0|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend0|#D72F30|70–80%}} {{legend0|#C21B18|80–90%}} {{legend0|#A80000|>90%}}<br /> {{legend0|#d2b1d9|Tie}} {{legend0|#808080|No data}}
| after_election = TBD
| title = U.S. Senator
| after_party =
| before_election = ]
| before_party = Democratic Party (United States)
| after_election = ]
| after_party = Democratic Party (United States)
}} }}

{{ElectionsWI}} {{ElectionsWI}}
The '''2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin''' will take place on November 6, 2010 alongside a ] as well as other elections to the ] and ] as well as various state and local elections. The '''2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin''' took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a ] as well as other elections to the ] and ] and various state and local elections. Incumbent ] Senator ] retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since ], when Kohl won his first term.


Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012. Congresswoman ] of ] ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republican nominee was former ] and ] ], who won with a plurality in a four-way primary race. In the general election, Baldwin defeated Thompson and won the open seat. She became the first woman elected to represent Wisconsin in the Senate and the first openly ] U.S. senator in history. This is also the only time Thompson lost a statewide race.
On November 7, 2006, four-term incumbent Democratic U.S. senator ] was re-elected to his fourth consecutive six-year term against ] after receiving 67.3% of the vote.


== Background ==
Kohl has not announced whether or not he will run for a fifth term. His lack of fundraising<ref name=ss1>{{cite web|url=http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7367/fundraising-for-senate-incumbents-up-in-2012|title= Fundraising for Senate incumbents up in 2012 |date=August 11, 2010|accessdate=November 28, 2010|work=Swing State Project|}}</ref><ref name=js1>{{cite web|url=http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/106628683.html|title=Kohl says he'll work with Johnson |date=November 3, 2010|accessdate=November 28, 2010|work=Journal Sentinel|first=Bill|last=Glauber}}</ref> might be an indication of his retirement. Kohl also might decide to retire due to his colleague's, ], loss for his re-election bid although Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, has denied such.<ref name=ch1>{{cite web|url=http://chippewa.com/news/local/article_9e9dbc76-e826-11df-85e2-001cc4c002e0.html|title=Feingold won’t seek office in 2012, official says|date=November 4, 2010|accessdate=November 28, 2010|work=The Chippewa Hearld|first=Dee|last=Hall}}</ref>
Incumbent Democratic senator ] was re-elected to a fourth term ], beating Republican attorney Robert Lorge by 67% to 30%. Kohl's lack of fundraising suggested his potential retirement.<ref name="js1">{{cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/106628683.html |title=Kohl says he'll work with Johnson |date=November 3, 2010 |access-date=November 29, 2010 |work=] |first=Bill |last=Glauber}}</ref> There was speculation that Kohl might decide to retire to allow ], who lost his re-election bid in ], to run again, although Mike Tate, chairman of the ], dismissed speculation about Kohl's potential retirement.<ref name="ch1">{{cite news |url=http://chippewa.com/news/local/article_9e9dbc76-e826-11df-85e2-001cc4c002e0.html |title=Feingold won't seek office in 2012, official says |date=November 4, 2010 |access-date=November 29, 2010 |work=] |first=Dee |last=Hall}}</ref> Ultimately, Kohl announced in May 2011 that he would not run for re-election in 2012.


==Democratic primary== == Democratic primary ==
Despite speculation that Kohl would retire to make way for his former Senate colleague Russ Feingold, who had been unseated in 2010, Feingold chose not to enter the race. Other potential candidates also declined to run, leaving Baldwin unopposed in the Democratic primary.
===Candidates===


===Potential=== === Candidates ===
* Ron Kind, U.S. representative<ref name=th1/>
* Herb Kohl, incumbent U.S. senator<ref name=js1/>


==== Declared ====
==Republican primary==
* ], U.S. representative<ref>{{Cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/129281483.html |title=Tammy Baldwin enters race for open Senate seat |work=]}}</ref>
===Candidates===


===Potential=== ==== Declined ====
* ], ] of ]<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0511/Barrett_closes_door_on_Senate_speculation.html |title=Barrett closes door on Senate speculation |date=May 17, 2011 |access-date=May 17, 2011 |work=] |first=Alexander|last=Burns}}</ref>
* Mike Huebsch, state representative<ref name=th1/>
* ], former ] executive (1997–2011)<ref>{{cite news |url=http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/falk-announces.php |title=Falk Announces Candidacy in Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race |date=January 18, 2012 |access-date=January 28, 2012 |work=] |first=Sean |last=Sullivan |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120122011157/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/falk-announces.php |archive-date=January 22, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}</ref>
* ], businessman and 2004 senate candidate<ref name=th1/>
* ], U.S. representatives<ref name=th1>{{cite web|url=http://townhall.com/tipsheet/GuyBenson/2010/11/19/2012_senate_talent,_ryan_running|title=2012 Senate: Talent, Ryan Running?|date=November 20, 2010|accessdate=November 28, 2010|work=Town Hall|first=Guy|last=Benson}}</ref> * ], former U.S. senator<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/russ-feingold-not-running-in-2012/2011/08/19/gIQALSkjPJ_blog.html |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=August 19, 2011 |first=Krissah |last=Thompson |title=Russ Feingold not running in 2012}}</ref>
* ], former U.S. representative for ] (2006–2011)<ref>{{cite web |url=http://dc.wispolitics.com/2012/01/baldwin-kicks-off-jobs-tour-receives.html |title=Baldwin kicks off jobs tour; receives Kagen endorsement |date=January 5, 2012 |access-date=January 28, 2012 |work=] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120508182109/http://dc.wispolitics.com/2012/01/baldwin-kicks-off-jobs-tour-receives.html |archive-date=May 8, 2012 |url-status=dead}}</ref>
* ], former governor and former Secretary of Health and Human Services
* ], U.S. representative for ]<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0911/Exclusive_Rep_Kind_says_no_to_Senate_run.html |title=Rep. Kind says no to Senate run |date=September 15, 2011 |access-date=September 15, 2011 |work=] |first=David |last=Catanese}}</ref>
* ], incumbent U.S. senator<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.rollcall.com/news/Herb-Kohl-Retiring-Senate-Wisconsin-2012-205591-1.html |title=Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl to Retire |date=May 13, 2011}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0511/Herb_Kohl_wont_seek_reelection.html?showall |title=Herb Kohl won't seek reelection |website=]}}</ref>
* ], U.S. representative for ]<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=250796 |title=Baldwin Campaign: Rep. Gwen Moore endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate |website=WisPolitics.com |access-date=October 21, 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120402172250/http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=250796 |archive-date=April 2, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}</ref>
* Tim Sullivan, businessman<ref name="sullivan">{{cite web |url=http://dc.wispolitics.com/2011/11/former-bucyrus-head-unlikely-to-jump.html |title=Former Bucyrus head unlikely to jump into races next year |date=November 18, 2011 |access-date=November 21, 2011 |work=] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111211211815/http://dc.wispolitics.com/2011/11/former-bucyrus-head-unlikely-to-jump.html |archive-date=December 11, 2011 |url-status=dead}}</ref>


==General election== === Polling ===
<!-- = = = don't edit the line below = = = -->
===Kohl's approval ratings===
{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
<!-- = = = don't edit the line above = = = -->
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{Small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:75px;"| Tammy<br />Baldwin
! style="width:75px;"| Jon<br />Erpenbach
! style="width:75px;"| Russ<br />Feingold
! style="width:75px;"| Kathleen<br />Falk
! style="width:75px;"| Steve<br />Kagen
! style="width:75px;"| Ron<br />Kind
! style="width:75px;"| Barbara<br />Lawton
! style="width:75px;"| Gwen<br />Moore
! Other/<br />Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" rowspan=2 |]<ref></ref>
| rowspan=2 | May 19–22, 2011
| rowspan=2 | 783
| rowspan=2 | ±3.5%
| 12%
| 5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''70%'''
| 1%
| 3%
| 4%
| 1%
| 2%
| 3%
|-
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''30%'''
| 13%
| —
| 4%
| 17%
| 16%
| 3%
| 6%
| 12%
|-
| style="text-align:left" rowspan=2 |]<ref></ref>
| rowspan=2 | July 12–13, 2011
| rowspan=2 | 627
| rowspan=2 | ±3.9%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''46%'''
| —
| —
| —
| 21%
| —
| —
| —
| 33%
|-
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''41%'''
| —
| —
| —
| —
| 19%
| —
| —
| 40%
|-
| style="text-align:left" rowspan=2 |]<ref name="Public Policy Polling"></ref>
| rowspan=2 | August 12–14, 2011
| rowspan=2 | 387
| rowspan=2 | ±5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| —
| —
| —
| 19%
| —
| —
| —
| 33%
|-
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''37%'''
| —
| —
| —
| 15%
| 21%
| —
| —
| 27%

|}
{{hidden end}}

=== Results ===
{{Election box begin no change
| title = Democratic primary results<ref name="gab.wi.gov">{{cite web |url=http://gab.wi.gov/sites/default/files/Percentage%20Results_8.14.12%20primary.pdf |title=Canvass Results for 2012 Partisan Primary - 8/14/2012 |access-date=September 22, 2012 |publisher=] |archive-date=October 29, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131029204626/http://gab.wi.gov/sites/default/files/Percentage%20Results_8.14.12%20primary.pdf |url-status=dead}}</ref>
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| candidate = ]
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 185,265
| percentage = 99.77
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Write ins
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| votes = 424
| percentage = 0.23
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 185,689
| percentage = 100
}}
{{Election box end}}

== Republican primary ==
Congressman and ] Chairman ] stated he would not run if Kohl sought reelection, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired.<ref>{{cite news|last=Gilbert |first=Craig |url=http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/43705712.html |title=Ryan shines as GOP seeks vision |work=] |date=April 25, 2009|access-date=June 29, 2010}}</ref> Ryan later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run.<ref>{{cite news |last=Catanese |first=David |url=http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0511/Ryan_telling_GOPers_hes_unlikely_to_run_.html |title=Ryan telling GOPers he's unlikely to run |newspaper=Politico |date=May 16, 2011 |access-date=May 17, 2011}}</ref> He was later chosen as the Republican nominee for vice president by presidential nominee ].

Six candidates declared for the seat, although two later withdrew. The contest turned out to be a four-way fight. Although a large majority of Republican primary voters consistently expressed a preference for a nominee "more conservative" than Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann split the conservative vote, allowing Thompson to narrowly prevail with a plurality of the vote.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=409667 |title=Our Campaigns - WI US Senate - R Primary Race - Aug 14, 2012 |website=Our Campaigns}}</ref>

=== Candidates ===

==== Declared ====
* ], Speaker of the ]<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/jeff-fitzgerald-announces-senate-bid-131519063.html |title=Jeff Fitzgerald announces Senate bid |date=October 11, 2011 |access-date=October 11, 2011 |work=] |first=Patrick |last=Marley}}</ref>
* Eric Hovde, businessman<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.leadertelegram.com/news/front_page/article_8f25fbd4-602d-11e1-8d24-0019bb2963f4.html |title=Hovde emerges as new Senate candidate |newspaper=Leader-Telegram |access-date=February 27, 2012 |archive-date=March 4, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304031455/http://www.leadertelegram.com/news/front_page/article_8f25fbd4-602d-11e1-8d24-0019bb2963f4.html |url-status=dead}}</ref>
* ], former U.S. representative, nominee for the U.S. Senate in ], and candidate for governor in ]<ref> {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110928030928/http://www.wbay.com/story/15351054/republican-neumann-announces-senate-run |date=September 28, 2011}} WBAY-TV. August 29, 2011. Retrieved August 29, 2011</ref><ref>Kyle Trygstad. (August 29, 2011) ''Roll Call''. Retrieved August 29, 2011</ref>
* ], former ] and former ]<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.rollcall.com/news/Tommy_Thompson_Wisconsin_Senate_Bid_Official-208823-1.html?pos=hln |title=Tommy Thompson Makes Wisconsin Senate Bid Official |date=September 19, 2011 |access-date=September 19, 2011}}</ref>

==== Withdrew ====
* ], state senator<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.channel3000.com/news/30327852/detail.html |title=State Senator Lasee Drops Out Of U.S. Senate Race |website=Channel3000.com |access-date=February 15, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120202080622/http://www.channel3000.com/news/30327852/detail.html |archive-date=February 2, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}</ref> ''(endorsed Eric Hovde)''
* Kip Smith, physical therapist<ref>{{Cite news |url=http://wisconsin.onpolitix.com/news/106086/republican-kip-smith-enters-2012-u-s-senate-race |title=Kip Smith enters U.S. Senate race |website=onpolitics |publisher=] |access-date=January 1, 2023 |archive-date=July 18, 2012 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20120718232143/http://wisconsin.onpolitix.com/news/106086/republican-kip-smith-enters-2012-u-s-senate-race |url-status=dead}}</ref>

==== Declined ====
* ], former U.S. representative and former ]<ref name="fox11online">{{cite news |url=http://www.fox11online.com/dpp/news/local/green_bay/former-u-s-rep-mark-green-backs-tommy-thompson-for-senate|archive-url=https://archive.today/20130123113310/http://www.fox11online.com/dpp/news/local/green_bay/former-u-s-rep-mark-green-backs-tommy-thompson-for-senate|url-status=dead|archive-date=January 23, 2013|title=Green backs Thompson for Senate|date=September 16, 2011|access-date=December 18, 2011|publisher=]|agency=]}}</ref>
* ], former state senator<ref>{{Cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/130773358.html |title=Kanavas says he won't run for U.S. Senate |work=]}}</ref>
* ], U.S. representative<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.rollcall.com/news/Ryan-Out-Thompson-In-Wisconsin-Senate-205679-1.html?pos=hln|title=Ryan Out, Thompson to Get in Wisconsin Senate Race|date=May 17, 2011 |work=Roll Call}}</ref>
* Tim Sullivan, businessman<ref name="sullivan" />
* ], Wisconsin attorney general<ref>{{Cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/127969353.html?wpisrc=nl_fix |title=Thompson takes step toward Senate run |work=]}}</ref>

===Polling===
{| class="wikitable" {| class="wikitable"
|- valign=bottom |- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source ! Poll source
! style="width:130px;"| Date(s)<br />administered ! Date(s) administered
! class=small | Sample<br />size ! class=small | Sample<br />size
! <small>Margin of</small><br />error ! {{small|Margin of}}<br />error
! style="width:80px;"| Jeff<br />Fitzgerald
! width=100px| Approve
! style="width:80px;"| Eric<br />Hovde
! width=100px| Disapprove
! style="width:80px;"| Mark<br />Neumann
! width=100px| Undecided
! style="width:80px;"| Tommy<br />Thompson
! Undecided
|- |-
| |]<ref></ref>
| align=center| October 28, 2010 | style="text-align:center"| August 8–9, 2012
| align=center| 1,372 | style="text-align:center"| 557
| align=center| ± 2.6% | style="text-align:center"| ± 4.2%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''41%''' | style="text-align:center"| 15%
| align=center| 40% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''27%'''
| align=center| 18% | style="text-align:center"| 24%
| style="text-align:center"| 25%
| style="text-align:center"| 9%
|- |-
|]<ref></ref>
|
| align=center| June 28, 2010 | style="text-align:center"| August 2–5, 2012
| align=center| 638 | style="text-align:center"| 519
| align=center| ± 3.9% | style="text-align:center"| ± 4.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''47%''' | style="text-align:center"| 13%
| align=center| 34% | style="text-align:center"| 20%
| align=center| 19% | style="text-align:center"| 18%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''28%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 7%
|- |-
|]<ref></ref>
|
| align=center| March 23, 2010 | style="text-align:center"| July 31, 2012
| align=center| 700 | style="text-align:center"| 1,237
| align=center| ± 3.7% | style="text-align:center"| ± 2.8%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} align=center| '''46%''' | style="text-align:center"| 12%
| align=center| 36% | {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''23%'''
| align=center| 18% | style="text-align:center"| 17%
| style="text-align:center"| 23%
| {{party shading/Undecided}} align="center"| '''25%'''
|-
| rowspan=2|]<ref name="publicpolicypolling.com"></ref>
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=2| July 30–31, 2012
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=2| 400
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=2| ± 4.9%
| style="text-align:center"| 13%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''28%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 25%
| style="text-align:center"| 25%
| style="text-align:center"| 9%
|-
| style="text-align:center"| —
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''33%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 27%
| style="text-align:center"| 30%
| style="text-align:center"| 10%
|-
|]<ref name="Marquette University"></ref>
| style="text-align:center"| July 5–8, 2012
| style="text-align:center"| 432
| style="text-align:center"| ± 4.8%
| style="text-align:center"| 6%
| style="text-align:center"| 23%
| style="text-align:center"| 10%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''35%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 25%
|-
|]<ref name="ReferenceA"></ref>
| style="text-align:center"| July 5–8, 2012
| style="text-align:center"| 564
| style="text-align:center"| ± 4.1%
| style="text-align:center"| 9%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''31%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 15%
| style="text-align:center"| 29%
| style="text-align:center"| 16%
|-
|]<ref></ref>{{+}}
| style="text-align:center"| June 26–27, 2012
| style="text-align:center"| 600
| style="text-align:center"| ± 4.0%
| style="text-align:center"| 7%
| style="text-align:center"| 29%
| style="text-align:center"| 16%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''34%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 14%
|-
|]<ref name="law.marquette.edu"></ref>
| style="text-align:center"| June 13–16, 2012
| style="text-align:center"| 344
| style="text-align:center"| ± 5.4%
| style="text-align:center"| 10%
| style="text-align:center"| 14%
| style="text-align:center"| 16%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''34%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 25%
|-
|]<ref></ref>
| style="text-align:center"| March 31–April 1, 2012
| style="text-align:center"| 609
| style="text-align:center"| ± 4.0%
| style="text-align:center"| 18%
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| 25%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''38%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 19%
|-
| rowspan=4|]<ref name="ReferenceB"></ref>
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=4| February 23–26, 2012
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=4| 556
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=4| ± 4.2%
| style="text-align:center"| 22%
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| 22%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''39%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 17%
|-
| style="text-align:center"| 32%
| style="text-align:center"| —
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''42%'''
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| 26%
|-
| style="text-align:center"| 37%
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| —
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''46%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 17%
|-
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| 36%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''46%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 18%
|-
| rowspan=4|]<ref name="ReferenceC"></ref>
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=4| October 20–23, 2011
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=4| 650
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=4| ± 3.8%
| style="text-align:center"| 21%
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| 29%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''35%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 11%
|-
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| 39%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''43%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 17%
|-
| style="text-align:center"| 28%
| style="text-align:center"| —
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''44%'''
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| 28%
|-
| style="text-align:center"| 35%
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| —
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''47%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 17%
|-
|]<ref name="Public Policy Polling"/>
| style="text-align:center"| August 12–14, 2011
| style="text-align:center"| 362
| style="text-align:center"| ± 5.2%
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| 39%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''47%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 13%
|-
| rowspan=2|]<ref></ref>
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=2| July 12–13, 2011
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=2| 638
| style="text-align:center" rowspan=2| ± 3.9%
| style="text-align:center"| 15%
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| 26%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''41%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 18%
|-
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| —
| style="text-align:center"| 36%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''44%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 20%
|} |}

* {{+}} Commissioned by Eric Hovde

{| class="wikitable"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"bottom
! Poll source
! Date(s) administered
! class=small | Sample<br />size
! {{small|Margin of}}<br />error
! style="width:100px;"| Tommy<br />Thompson
! style="width:100px;"| {{nowrap|Someone more}}<br />conservative
! Undecided
|-
|]<ref name="publicpolicypolling.com"/>
| style="text-align:center"| July 30–31, 2012
| style="text-align:center"| 400
| style="text-align:center"| ± 4.9%
| style="text-align:center"| 29%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''58%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 13%
|-
|]<ref name="ReferenceA"/>
| style="text-align:center"| July 5–8, 2012
| style="text-align:center"| 564
| style="text-align:center"| ± 4.1%
| style="text-align:center"| 34%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''50%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 17%
|-
|]<ref name="ReferenceB"/>
| style="text-align:center"| February 23–26, 2012
| style="text-align:center"| 556
| style="text-align:center"| ± 4.2%
| style="text-align:center"| 37%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''47%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 17%
|-
|]<ref name="ReferenceC"/>
| style="text-align:center"| October 20–23, 2011
| style="text-align:center"| 650
| style="text-align:center"| ± 3.8%
| style="text-align:center"| 35%
| {{party shading/Republican}} align="center"| '''51%'''
| style="text-align:center"| 14%
|}

=== Endorsements ===

{{Endorsements box | columns = 2
| title = Jeff Fitzgerald
| list =
* ], Wisconsin Assembly Majority Leader (Abbotsford)<ref name="sunpra">{{cite news |url=https://www.hngnews.com/sun_prairie_star/ |title=Sun Prairie Star}}</ref>{{failed verification|date=January 2023}}
* ], Wisconsin Assembly Finance Chair (Rochester)<ref name="sunpra" />{{failed verification|date=January 2023}}
* ], Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Chair (Markesan)<ref name="sunpra" />{{failed verification|date=January 2023}}
* ], Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Secretary (Medford)<ref name="sunpra" />{{failed verification|date=January 2023}}
* ], Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Sergeant at Arms (Randall)<ref name="sunpra" />{{failed verification|date=January 2023}}
* ], Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Pro-Temp (Waukesha)<ref name="sunpra2">. ''Sun Prairie Star''</ref>
* ], Wisconsin Assembly Assistant Assembly Majority Leader (Germantown)<ref name="sunpra" />{{failed verification|date=January 2023}}
* ], Wisconsin State Representative (Oconomowoc)<ref name="sunpra2" />
* ], Wisconsin State Representative (Hartford)<ref name="sunpra2" />
* ], Wisconsin State Representative (Pewaukee)<ref name="sunpra2" />
* ], Wisconsin State Representative (Brookfield)<ref name="sunpra2" />
* ], Wisconsin State Representative (New Berlin)<ref name="sunpra2" />
* ], Wisconsin State Representative (Brown Deer)<ref name="sunpra2" />

}}

{{Endorsements box | columns = 2
| title = Eric Hovde
| list =
* ], Wisconsin State Senator (De Pere)<ref name="sunpra2" />
* ], Wisconsin State Senator (Wauwatosa)<ref name="sunpra2" />
* ]<ref>{{cite news |url=https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/119549-freedomworks-splits-with-other-conservatives-endorses-hovde-in-wisconsin/ |work=The Hill |title=FreedomWorks splits with other conservatives, endorses Hovde in Wisconsin}}</ref>

}}

{{Endorsements box | columns = 2
| title = Mark Neumann
| list =
* ]<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://www.clubforgrowth.org/endorsedcandidates/ |title=CFG PAC endorses Kevin Cramer in North Dakota<!-- Bot generated title --> |access-date=October 12, 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111006124727/http://www.clubforgrowth.org/endorsedcandidates/ |archive-date=October 6, 2011 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}</ref>
* ]<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.frcaction.org/advanced-search |title=FRC Action |publisher=]}}</ref>
* ], U.S. Senator (KY)<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/11/huffpost-fundrace----perr_n_1089105.html |work=The Huffington Post |first=Paul |last=Blumenthal |title=HUFFPOST FUNDRACE -- Perry Spends Big |date=November 11, 2011}}</ref>
* ], U.S. Senator (OK)<ref>{{cite news |url=https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/178441-sen-coburn-endorses-neumann-in-wis-senate-race/ |title=Sen. Coburn endorses Neumann in Wis. Senate race |first=Cameron |last=Joseph |date=November 12, 2011}}</ref>
* ], U.S. Senator (SC)<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.rollcall.com/2011/11/28/jim-demint-backs-wisconsin-senate-hopeful-over-tommy-thompson/ |title=Jim DeMint Backs Wisconsin Senate Hopeful Over Tommy Thompson |date=November 28, 2011 |website=Roll Call}}</ref>
* ], U.S. Senator (UT)<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/148022855.html |title=Utah senator endorses Neumann |work=]}}</ref>
* ], former Wisconsin State Treasurer<ref name="wispol"> {{Dead link|date=April 2019 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes}}</ref>
* ], Wisconsin State Treasurer<ref name="wispol" />
* GING PAC, a PAC of Social Conservatives<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://www.gingpac.org/mark-neumann-wins-two-key-endorsements-for-senate-race |title=Mark Neumann Wins Two Key Endorsements For Senate Race<!-- Bot generated title --> |access-date=February 27, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160317014619/http://gingpac.org/mark-neumann-wins-two-key-endorsements-for-senate-race/ |archive-date=March 17, 2016 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}</ref>
* ], U.S. Senator (PA)<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/161087815.html |title=Neumann endorsed by Sen. Toomey |work=]}}</ref>
* Wisconsin Right to Life<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://wrtl.org/mec/ |title=My Election Central |publisher=Wisconsin Right to Life |access-date=July 23, 2012 |archive-date=July 23, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120723062333/http://www.wrtl.org/mec/ |url-status=dead}}</ref>
* ], Nationally Syndicated Talk Show Host<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://impeachobamatoday.blogspot.com/2012/08/mark-levin-endorses-mark-neumann-for-us.html |title=Impeach McConnell, Boehner, and Cantor Today: Mark Levin endorses Mark Neumann for US Senate in Wisconsin GOP primary, 8/14/12 |date=August 6, 2012}}</ref>

}}

{{Endorsements box | columns = 2
| title = Tommy Thompson
| list =
'''Politicians'''
* ], business executive, radio host, syndicated columnist, former candidate for the 2012 U.S. Republican Party presidential nomination.<ref>{{Cite news |url=http://waukesha.patch.com/articles/herman-cain-stumps-for-tommy-thompson-at-waukesha-rally|title=Herman Cain Stumps for Tommy Thompson at Waukesha Rally|date=August 13, 2012}}</ref>
* ], former speaker of the House of Representatives, and 2012 presidential candidate<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/category/endorsements/ |title=Endorsements |access-date=May 9, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120609045717/http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/category/endorsements/ |archive-date=June 9, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}</ref>
* Governor ] of Indiana<ref name="tommyforwisconsin endorsements">{{Cite web |url=http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/category/endorsements/ |title=Endorsements<!-- Bot generated title --> |access-date=May 9, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120609045717/http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/category/endorsements/ |archive-date=June 9, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}</ref>
* ], former mayor of New York City and ]<ref>{{Cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/145021415.html |title=Rudy Giuliani, Milwaukee Police Association backing Tommy Thompson |work=] |author=Don Walker |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150509155522/http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/145021415.html |archive-date=May 9, 2015 |url-status=live}}</ref>
* ], U.S. senator from ]<ref name="rollcall">{{Cite news |url=http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_60/tommy_thompson_picks_up_senate_endorsements-210366-1.html |title=Tommy Thompson Picks Up Senate Endorsements |author=Abby Livingston |work=Roll Call |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111117002212/http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_60/tommy_thompson_picks_up_senate_endorsements-210366-1.html |archive-date=November 17, 2011 |url-status=dead}}</ref>
* ], U.S. senator from ]<ref name="rollcall" />
* ], U.S. senator from ]<ref name="rollcall" />
* ], U.S. senator from ]<ref name="rollcall" />
* ], former U.S. representative and former ]<ref name="fox11online" />
* ], Wisconsin attorney general<ref name="fox11online" />
* ], former Wisconsin state treasurer<ref name="fox11online" />
* ], former ], ] and ] talk show host<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/huckabee-endorses-thompson-slams-club-for-growth-tr3f7ar-135710398.html |title=Huckabee endorses Thompson, slams Club for Growth|date=December 15, 2011 |access-date=December 18, 2011 |work=] |first=Don |last=Walker |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120111234455/http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/huckabee-endorses-thompson-slams-club-for-growth-tr3f7ar-135710398.html |archive-date=January 11, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}</ref>
* ], former U.S. representative (WI)
* ], former lieutenant governor of Wisconsin
* ], former ], former ], and former ]<ref name="7govs">{{Cite news |url=https://archive.jsonline.com/blogs/news/146970885.html/ |title=Seven former governors endorse Thompson |work=]}}</ref>
* ], former ]<ref name="7govs" />
* ], former ] and former ]<ref name="7govs" />
* ], former ]<ref name="7govs" />
* ], former ] and former ]<ref name="7govs" />
* ], former ]<ref name="7govs" />
* ], former ]<ref name="7govs" />
* ], former ]<ref name="tommyforwisconsin endorsements" />

'''Celebrities and political commentators'''<ref name="tommyforwisconsin full list">{{Cite web |url=http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/2012/06/21/see-the-full-list/ |title=See the full list |access-date=July 25, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120725202346/http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/2012/06/21/see-the-full-list/ |archive-date=July 25, 2012 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}</ref>
* ], musician and conservative activist <ref>{{Cite news |url=http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/144434255.html |title='The Nuge' endorses Tommy Thompson |author=Don Walker |work=] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120330015632/http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/144434255.html |archive-date=March 30, 2012 |url-status=live}}</ref>
* ], author, radio host, and son of President ]
* ], political strategist, author, Fox News analyst, former adviser to President ]<ref>{{Cite news |url=https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/buzzfeedpolitics/the-coveted-dick-morris-endorsement |title=The Coveted Dick Morris Endorsement |website=BuzzFeed News |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180811112749/https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/buzzfeedpolitics/the-coveted-dick-morris-endorsement |archive-date=August 11, 2018 |url-status=live}}</ref>
* ], a.k.a. Joe the Plumber<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://shorewood.patch.com/articles/joe-the-plumber-supports-thompson-because-he-gets-stuff-done |title=Joe the Plumber Supports Thompson Because He 'Gets Stuff Done' - Shor… |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130131032804/http://shorewood.patch.com/articles/joe-the-plumber-supports-thompson-because-he-gets-stuff-done |archive-date=31 January 2013 |url-status=dead}}</ref>

'''Cabinet officials'''<ref name="tommyforwisconsin full list" />
* ], former Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 and 2001 to 2006, former White House chief of staff, and former ambassador
* Donald L. Nelson, former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense
* Ray Boland, colonel and former Veterans Affairs Secretary

'''State legislators'''<ref name="tommyforwisconsin full list" />
* ], former Wisconsin Assembly Speaker
* State Senator Rob Cowles
* State Senator Mike Ellis
* Rep. ] (Whitewater)
* Rep. Joseph Knilans (Janesville)
* State Senator ]
* State Senator ]
* State Senator ]
* State Senator ]
* ], former state senator

'''Political organization officials'''<ref name="tommyforwisconsin full list" />
* ], president of the ] and former chairman of the ]<ref>{{Cite web |last=Byers |first=Dylan |date=25 March 2014 |title=David Keene, the endorsement editor |url=https://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2014/03/david-keene-the-endorsement-editor-185686 |access-date=4 June 2024 |website=]}}</ref>
* Former Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Rick Graber
* Wisconsin Club for Growth founders Terry and Mary Kohler
* Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Sue Lynch
* Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Ginny Marschman
* Republican National Convention co-chairman Mary Buestrin

'''Law enforcement officials'''<ref name="tommyforwisconsin full list" />
* Waukesha County Sheriff Daniel Trawicki
* Waukesha County District Attorney ]

'''Organizations'''<ref name="tommyforwisconsin full list" />

* Wisconsin Right to Life
* Dairy Business Association
* Wisconsin Corn Growers Association
* Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation
* Milwaukee Police Association
* Milwaukee Police Supervisors Organization
* Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association
* Wisconsin Grocers Association
* ]
* Chiropractic Society of Wisconsin
* Wisconsin Health Care Association
* Wisconsin Mortgage Bankers Association
* ]<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://www.goproud.org/pages/news--press/2012/goproud-announces-u.s.-house-endorsements |title=GOProud Announces U.S. House Endorsements - GOProud, Inc. |date=October 25, 2012 |access-date=September 17, 2017 |archive-date=October 25, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121025012745/http://www.goproud.org/pages/news--press/2012/goproud-announces-u.s.-house-endorsements |url-status=dead}}</ref>

}}

=== Results ===
[[File:2012 WI US Senate GOP primary.svg|thumb|Results by county
{{collapsible list
| title = {{legend|#d35f5f|Thompson}}
|{{legend|#e9afaf|20–30%}}
|{{legend|#de8787|30–40%}}
|{{legend|#d35f5f|40–50%}}
|{{legend|#c83737|50–60%}}
|{{legend|#a02c2c|60–70%}}
}}
{{collapsible list
| title = {{legend|#5f8dd3|Hovde}}
|{{legend|#87aade|30–40%}}
|{{legend|#5f8dd3|40–50%}}
}}
{{collapsible list
| title = {{legend|#8dd35f|Neumann}}
|{{legend|#aade87|30–40%}}
|{{legend|#8dd35f|40–50%}}
}}
]]{{Election box begin no change
| title = Republican primary results<ref name="gab.wi.gov" />
}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link no change
| candidate = ]
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 197,928
| percentage = 34.0
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Eric Hovde
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 179,557
| percentage = 30.8
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = ]
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 132,786
| percentage = 22.8
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = ]
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 71,871
| percentage = 12.3
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link no change
| candidate = Write ins
| party = Republican Party (United States)
| votes = 244
| percentage = 0.04
}}
{{Election box total no change
| votes = 582,630
| percentage = 100
}}
{{Election box end}}

== General election ==
]'s Mike Gousha at the October 26 debate.]]

=== Candidates ===
* ] (Democratic), U.S. Representative
* ] (Republican), former governor and former ]
* Joseph Kexel (Libertarian), IT consultant<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.wispolitics.com/1006/120420_Kexel.pdf |title=Kexel Announces Run for US Senate |date=April 20, 2012 |access-date=September 22, 2012 |website=] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303231853/http://www.wispolitics.com/1006/120420_Kexel.pdf |archive-date=March 3, 2016 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}</ref>
* Nimrod Allen III (independent), consultant and former ]<ref>{{cite web |url=http://wispolitics.com/1006/120720_Nimrod_Allen_bio___press_release_7_20.pdf |title=Nimrod Allen III Independent Candidate for U.S. Senate |date=July 20, 2012 |access-date=September 22, 2012 |website=] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303173630/http://wispolitics.com/1006/120720_Nimrod_Allen_bio___press_release_7_20.pdf |archive-date=March 3, 2016 |url-status=dead |df=mdy-all}}</ref>

=== Debates ===
Baldwin and Thompson agreed to three debates: September 28, October 18 and 26, all broadcast statewide, and nationwide through ].

The first debate originated from the studios of ] and was coordinated by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association. It aired on MPTV, ], ] and several commercial stations throughout the state.

The second debate originated from the Theater for Civic Engagement on the campus of the ] in ] and was coordinated by WPT/WPR, the '']'' and Milwaukee's ]. Again it was carried on MPTV, WPT/WPR, and several commercial stations, including WTMJ-TV.

The third debate originated from Eckstein Hall on the campus of ] and was coordinated by ] in Milwaukee. It aired on that station and across the state's other ] affiliated stations.

'''External links'''
* , September 28, 2012 - ]
* , October 18, 2012 - ]
* , October 26, 2012 - ]

=== Fundraising ===
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|-
! Candidate (party)
! Receipts
! Disbursements
! Cash on hand
! Debt
|-
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | Tammy Baldwin (D)
| $14,643,869
| $15,204,940
| $143,852
| $0
|-
| {{party shading/Republican}} | Tommy Thompson (R)
| $9,585,823
| $9,582,888
| $2,934
| $0
|-
| colspan=5 | Source: ]<ref>{{cite web |url=http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSState.do |title=2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Wisconsin |publisher=] |date=November 26, 2012 |access-date=December 19, 2012 }}</ref>

|}

==== Top contributors ====
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|-
! Tammy Baldwin
! Contribution
! Tommy Thompson
! Contribution
|-
| ]
| $431,843
| ]
| $36,825
|-
| ]
| $171,467
| ]
| $28,500
|-
| ]
| $117,600
| ]
| $28,250
|-
| ]
| $113,758
| ]
| $27,500
|-
| ]
| $95,308
| ]
| $25,750
|-
| Democracy Engine
| $81,330
| American Foods Group
| $25,000
|-
| ]
| $54,130
| ]
| $23,000
|-
| Voices for Progress
| $25,749
| ]
| $20,750
|-
| ]
| $21,800
| BGR Group
| $20,500
|-
| ]
| $18,564
| ]
| $20,000
|-
| colspan=5 | Source: ]<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=WIS1&spec=N |title=Top Contributors 2012 Race: Wisconsin Senate |website=] |date=March 25, 2013}}</ref>

|}

==== Top industries ====
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|-
! Tammy Baldwin
! Contribution
! Tommy Thompson
! Contribution
|-
| ]
| $915,482
| Retired
| $858,276
|-
| Retired
| $791,756
| ]
| $244,804
|-
| ]/]
| $597,674
| ]
| $243,636
|-
| Democratic/Liberal
| $555,792
| Lawyers/Law Firms
| $228,379
|-
| Leadership PACs
| $309,430
| ]
| $227,687
|-
| ]
| $298,298
| ]/Health Products
| $204,302
|-
| ]
| $215,539
| ]
| $202,654
|-
| ]
| $202,654
| ] & Distributing
| $169,104
|-
| ]
| $172,380
| Health Professionals
| $150,149
|-
| Business Services
| $163,238
| ]
| $138,700
|-
| colspan=5 | Source: ]<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.opensecrets.org/races/indus.php?cycle=2012&id=WIS1&spec=N |title=Top Industries 2012 Race: Wisconsin Senate |website=] |date=March 25, 2013}}</ref>

|}

=== Predictions ===
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|-
! Source
! Ranking
! As of
|-
| style="text-align:left" | ]<ref>{{cite web |title=2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 |url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 |website=The Cook Political Report |access-date=September 20, 2018 |archive-date=August 29, 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 |url-status=dead }}</ref>
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}
| November 1, 2012
|-
| style="text-align:left" | ]<ref>{{cite web |title=2012 Senate |url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2012-senate/ |website=Sabato's Crystal Ball |access-date=September 20, 2018}}</ref>
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}}
| November 5, 2012
|-
| style="text-align:left" | ]<ref>{{cite web |title=2012 Senate Ratings |url=http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2012-senate-ratings-november-2-2012 |work=Senate Ratings |publisher=The Rothenberg Political Report |access-date=September 20, 2018}}</ref>
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}
| November 2, 2012
|-
| style="text-align:left" | ]<ref>{{cite web |title=2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 |url=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html |publisher=Real Clear Politics |access-date=September 20, 2018}}</ref>
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}}
| November 5, 2012
|}

=== Polling ===
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{Small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Tammy<br />Baldwin (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Tommy<br />Thompson (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"></ref>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| 44%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''45%'''
| —
| 11%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceE"></ref>
| August 12–14, 2011
| 830
| ±3.4%
| 42%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''50%'''
| —
| 8%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceF"></ref>
| October 20–23, 2011
| 1,170
| ±2.9%
| 44%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''46%'''
| —
| 10%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="Rasmussen Reports"></ref>
| October 26, 2011
| 500
| ±4.5%
| 42%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''49%'''
| 4%
| 6%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceG"></ref>
| February 16–19, 2012
| 716
| ±3.7%
| 42%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''48%'''
| 1%
| 9%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceB"/>
| February 23–26, 2012
| 900
| ±3.3%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''46%'''
| 45%
| —
| 9%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="rasmussenreports.com"></ref>
| February 27, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| 36%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''50%'''
| 4%
| 10%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceH"></ref>
| March 27, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| 44%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''48%'''
| 4%
| 4%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="dailykos.com"></ref>
| April 13–15, 2012
| 1,136
| ±2.9%
| 45%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''47%'''
| —
| 8%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceI"></ref>
| May 9, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| 38%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''50%'''
| 5%
| 7%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceJ"></ref>
| May 11–13, 2012
| 851
| ±3.4%
| 42%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''47%'''
| —
| 11%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| June 12, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| 36%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''52%'''
| 6%
| 6%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="law.marquette.edu"/>
| June 13–16, 2012
| 707
| ±3.8%
| 41%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''49%'''
| —
| 10%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceA"/>
| July 5–8, 2012
| 1,057
| ±3.0%
| '''45%'''
| '''45%'''
| —
| 11%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="Marquette University"/>
| July 5–8, 2012
| 810
| ±3.5%
| 41%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''45%'''
| —
| 14%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| July 25, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 41%
| 5%
| 6%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceK"></ref>
| August 2–5, 2012
| 1,400
| ±2.6%
| 43%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''48%'''
| —
| 5%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="Quinnipiac"> {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120913072521/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28co-va-and-wi%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1786 |date=September 13, 2012}}</ref>
| July 31 – August 6, 2012
| 1,428
| ±2.6%
| '''47%'''
| '''47%'''
| 1%
| 5%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| August 15, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| 43%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''54%'''
| 1%
| 3%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| August 16–19, 2012
| 1,308
| ±2.7%
| 44%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''49%'''
| —
| 7%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| August 16–19, 2012
| 576
| ±4.2%
| 41%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''50%'''
| —
| 9%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]/]/]<ref> {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120927101858/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1789 |date=September 27, 2012}}</ref>
| August 15–21, 2012
| 1,190
| ±3.0%
| 44%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''50%'''
| 1%
| 4%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| September 4–11, 2012
| 772
| ±n/a
| 42%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''48%'''
| —
| 10%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| September 12–13, 2012
| 959
| ±n/a
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 45%
| —
| 6%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| September 13–16, 2012
| 705
| ±3.8%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''50%'''
| 41%
| —
| 5%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]/]/]<ref> {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120927031655/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28co-va-and-wi%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1799 |date=September 27, 2012}}</ref>
| September 11–17, 2012
| 1,485
| ±2.5%
| '''47%'''
| '''47%'''
| —
| 6%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]/]/]<ref></ref>
| September 16–18, 2012
| 968
| ±3.2%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 46%
| —
| 5%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| September 18–19, 2012
| 842
| ±3.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''49%'''
| 45%
| —
| 6%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| September 20–23, 2012
| 1,238
| ±2.8%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''52%'''
| 40%
| —
| 8%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| September 27–30, 2012
| 894
| ±3.3%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 44%
| —
| 6%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| October 4–6, 2012
| 979
| ±3.1%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''49%'''
| 46%
| —
| 6%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]/]/]<ref></ref>
| October 4–9, 2012
| 1,327
| ±2.7%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 46%
| —
| 5%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| October 9, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''51%'''
| 47%
| 1%
| 2%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| October 4–11, 2012
| 639
| ±4.9%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 43%
| —
| 9%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| October 11–14, 2012
| 870
| ±3.3%
| 45%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''46%'''
| —
| 7%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]/]/]<ref></ref>
| October 15–17, 2012
| 1,013
| ±3.1%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''49%'''
| 45%
| 1%
| 5%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| October 15–17, 2012
| 625
| ±4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''47%'''
| 45%
| —
| 8%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| October 18, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| 46%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''48%'''
| 3%
| 3%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref>{{usurped|1=}}</ref>
| October 18–20, 2012
| 502
| ±4.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''45%'''
| 42%
| 3%
| 11%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceL"></ref>
| October 25, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| 47%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''48%'''
| 2%
| 4%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| October 25–28, 2012
| 1,243
| ±2.8%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''47%'''
| 43%
| —
| 10%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| October 25–29, 2012
| 402
| ±5%
| 43%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''46%'''
| —
| 11%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceL"/>
| October 29, 2012
| 750
| ±4.0%
| '''48%'''
| '''48%'''
| 1%
| 2%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]/]/]<ref></ref>
| October 31, 2012
| 1,065
| ±3.0%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 47%
| 4%
| 1%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| October 31 – November 1, 2012
| 1,210
| ±3%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''49%'''
| 46%
| —
| 5%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| October 31 – November 3, 2012
| 1,225
| ±3.1%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 47%
| —
| 5%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref>{{usurped|1=}}</ref>
| November 1–3, 2012
| 482
| ±4.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''50%'''
| 48%
| 2%
| —
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref></ref>
| November 2–3, 2012
| 1,256
| ±2.8%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''51%'''
| 48%
| —
| 2%

|}

<!-- = = = don't edit the line below = = = -->
{{hidden begin|titlestyle=background:#cff|title=Hypothetical polling|contentstyle=border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:white;}}
<!-- = = = don't edit the line above = = = -->
'''with Tammy Baldwin'''<br />
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{Small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Tammy<br />Baldwin (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Jeff<br />Fitzgerald (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 37%
| —
| 15%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceF"/>
| October 20–23, 2011
| 1,170
| ±2.9%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''44%'''
| 40%
| —
| 16%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="Rasmussen Reports"/>
| October 26, 2011
| 500
| ±4.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''46%'''
| 39%
| 4%
| 6%
|-
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceG"/>
| February 16–19, 2012
| 716
| ±3.7%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''45%'''
| 37%
| 3%
| 15%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceB"/>
| February 23–26, 2012
| 900
| ±3.3%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''47%'''
| 39%
| —
| 14%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="rasmussenreports.com"/>
| February 27, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| 40%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''41%'''
| 4%
| 15%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceH"/>
| March 27, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 40%
| 4%
| 7%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="dailykos.com"/>
| April 13–15, 2012
| 1,136
| ±2.9%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''47%'''
| 40%
| —
| 13%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceI"/>
| May 9, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''45%'''
| 41%
| 4%
| 9%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceL"/>
| June 12, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''44%'''
| 43%
| 5%
| 8%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="law.marquette.edu"/>
| June 13–16, 2012
| 707
| ±3.8%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''45%'''
| 39%
| —
| 16%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceA"/>
| July 5–8, 2012
| 1,057
| ±3.0%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''46%'''
| 42%
| —
| 13%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="Marquette University"/>
| July 5–8, 2012
| 810
| ±3.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''43%'''
| 37%
| —
| 20%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceL"/>
| July 25, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''47%'''
| 37%
| 6%
| 10%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceK"/>
| August 2–5, 2012
| 1,400
| ±2.6%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''45%'''
| 40%
| —
| 7%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="Quinnipiac"/>
| July 31 – August 6, 2012
| 1,428
| ±2.6%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''51%'''
| 39%
| —
| 9%

|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{Small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Tammy<br />Baldwin (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Eric<br />Hovde (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceJ"/>
| May 11–13, 2012
| 851
| ±3.4%
| 41%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''45%'''
| —
| 14%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceL"/>
| June 12, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| 42%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''44%'''
| 4%
| 10%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="law.marquette.edu"/>
| June 13–16, 2012
| 707
| ±3.8%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''45%'''
| 36%
| —
| 19%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceA"/>
| July 5–8, 2012
| 1,057
| ±3.0%
| 44%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''45%'''
| —
| 11%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="Marquette University"/>
| July 5–8, 2012
| 810
| ±3.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''44%'''
| 38%
| —
| 18%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceL"/>
| July 25, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''45%'''
| 42%
| 5%
| 8%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceK"/>
| August 2–5, 2012
| 1,400
| ±2.6%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''44%'''
| 41%
| —
| 9%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="Quinnipiac"/>
| July 31 – August 6, 2012
| 1,428
| ±2.6%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''47%'''
| 43%
| 1%
| 8%

|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Tammy<br />Baldwin (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Mark<br />Neumann (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''46%'''
| 41%
| —
| 13%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceE"/>
| August 12–14, 2011
| 830
| ±3.4%
| 40%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''44%'''
| —
| 15%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceF"/>
| October 20–23, 2011
| 1,170
| ±2.9%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''44%'''
| 43%
| —
| 13%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="Rasmussen Reports"/>
| October 26, 2011
| 500
| ±4.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''44%'''
| 43%
| 4%
| 9%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceG"/>
| February 16–19, 2012
| 716
| ±3.7%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''44%'''
| 40%
| 2%
| 14%
|-
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceB"/>
| February 23–26, 2012
| 900
| ±3.3%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''47%'''
| 41%
| —
| 12%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="rasmussenreports.com"/>
| February 27, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| 37%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''46%'''
| 4%
| 13%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceH"/>
| March 27, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 40%
| 4%
| 8%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="dailykos.com"/>
| April 13–15, 2012
| 1,136
| ±2.9%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''46%'''
| 45%
| —
| 9%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceI"/>
| May 9, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| 42%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''44%'''
| 4%
| 9%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceJ"/>
| May 11–13, 2012
| 851
| ±3.4%
| 42%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''46%'''
| —
| 12%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceL"/>
| June 12, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| 43%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''45%'''
| 5%
| 7%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="law.marquette.edu"/>
| June 13–16, 2012
| 707
| ±3.8%
| '''44%'''
| '''44%'''
| —
| 12%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceA"/>
| July 5–8, 2012
| 1,057
| ±3.0%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''45%'''
| 41%
| —
| 13%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="Marquette University"/>
| July 5–8, 2012
| 810
| ±3.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''43%'''
| 40%
| —
| 17%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceL"/>
| July 25, 2012
| 500
| ±4.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 42%
| 3%
| 8%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceK"/>
| August 2–5, 2012
| 1,400
| ±2.6%
| '''44%'''
| '''44%'''
| —
| 6%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="Quinnipiac"/>
| July 31 – August 6, 2012
| 1,428
| ±2.6%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 45%
| 1%
| 6%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Tammy<br />Baldwin (D)
! style="width:100px;"| J. B.<br />Van Hollen (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''46%'''
| 39%
| —
| 15%

|}

'''with Russ Feingold'''<br />
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Russ<br />Feingold (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Jeff<br />Fitzgerald (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''55%'''
| 39%
| —
| 7%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Russ<br />Feingold (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Mark<br />Neumann (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceE"/>
| August 12–14, 2011
| 830
| ±3.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''51%'''
| 44%
| —
| 5%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''53%'''
| 41%
| —
| 6%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceM"></ref>
| February 24–27, 2011
| 768
| ±3.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''50%'''
| 40%
| —
| 10%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Russ<br />Feingold (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Paul<br /> Ryan (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceN"></ref>
| December 10–12, 2010
| 702
| ±3.7%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''50%'''
| 43%
| —
| 7%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceM"/>
| February 24–27, 2011
| 768
| ±3.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''49%'''
| 42%
| —
| 9%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Russ<br />Feingold (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Tommy<br />Thompson (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceN"/>
| December 10–12, 2010
| 702
| ±3.7%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''49%'''
| 40%
| —
| 11%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''52%'''
| 42%
| —
| 6%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceE"/>
| August 12–14, 2011
| 830
| ±3.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 47%
| —
| 5%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Russ<br />Feingold (D)
! style="width:100px;"| J. B.<br />Van Hollen (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceN"/>
| December 10–12, 2010
| 702
| ±3.7%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''52%'''
| 41%
| —
| 7%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceM"/>
| February 24–27, 2011
| 768
| ±3.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''51%'''
| 39%
| —
| 10%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''53%'''
| 38%
| —
| 9%
|}

'''with Steve Kagen'''<br />
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Steve<br />Kagen (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Jeff<br />Fitzgerald (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''43%'''
| 38%
| —
| 19%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Steve<br />Kagen (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Mark<br />Neumann (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''42%'''
| 41%
| —
| 17%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceE"/>
| August 12–14, 2011
| 830
| ±3.4%
| 38%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''45%'''
| —
| 17%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Steve<br />Kagen (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Tommy<br />Thompson (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| 42%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''45%'''
| —
| 13%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceE"/>
| August 12–14, 2011
| 830
| ±3.4%
| 41%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''49%'''
| —
| 10%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Steve<br />Kagen (D)
! style="width:100px;"| J. B.<br />Van Hollen (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''43%'''
| 38%
| —
| 19%
|}

'''with Ron Kind'''<br />
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Ron<br />Kind (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Jeff<br />Fitzgerald (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''45%'''
| 37%
| —
| 18%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Ron<br />Kind (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Mark<br />Neumann (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''44%'''
| 40%
| —
| 16%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceE"/>
| August 12–14, 2011
| 830
| ±3.4%
| 40%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''43%'''
| —
| 17%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Ron<br />Kind (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Tommy<br />Thompson (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| '''44%'''
| '''44%'''
| —
| 12%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceE"/>
| August 12–14, 2011
| 830
| ±3.4%
| 41%
| {{party shading/Republican}} | '''48%'''
| —
| 11%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Ron<br />Kind (D)
! style="width:100px;"| J. B.<br />Van Hollen (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceD"/>
| May 19–22, 2011
| 1,636
| ±2.4%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''44%'''
| 38%
| —
| 17%
|}

'''with Herb Kohl'''<br />
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Herb<br />Kohl (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Mark<br />Neumann (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceM"/>
| February 24–27, 2011
| 768
| ±3.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''51%'''
| 37%
| —
| 12%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Herb<br />Kohl (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Paul<br />Ryan (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceN"/>
| December 10–12, 2010
| 702
| ±3.7%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''48%'''
| 42%
| —
| 11%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceM"/>
| February 24–27, 2011
| 768
| ±3.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''49%'''
| 42%
| —
| 10%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Herb<br />Kohl (D)
! style="width:100px;"| Tommy<br />Thompson (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceN"/>
| December 10–12, 2010
| 702
| ±3.7%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''49%'''
| 40%
| —
| 11%
|}

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
|- style="vertical-align:bottom"
! Poll source
! {{Small|Date(s)<br />administered}}
! {{Small|Sample<br />size}}
! {{small|Margin of<br />error}}
! style="width:100px;"| Herb<br />Kohl (D)
! style="width:100px;"| J. B.<br />Van Hollen (R)
! Other
! Undecided
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceN"/>
| December 10–12, 2010
| 702
| ±3.7%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''51%'''
| 38%
| —
| 11%
|-
| style="text-align:left" |]<ref name="ReferenceM"/>
| February 24–27, 2011
| 768
| ±3.5%
| {{party shading/Democratic}} | '''52%'''
| 37%
| —
| 11%
|}
{{hidden end}}

===Results===
{{Election box begin | title=United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2012<ref>{{cite web |url=https://elections.wi.gov/sites/default/files/Amended%20Percentage%20Results-11.6.12%20President.pdf |title=Canvass Results for 2012 Presidential and General Election - 11/6/2012 |publisher=G.A.B. Canvass Reporting System |archive-date=October 14, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161014235045/https://elections.wi.gov/sites/default/files/Amended%20Percentage%20Results-11.6.12%20President.pdf |url-status=dead}}</ref>}}
{{Election box winning candidate with party link
| party = Democratic Party (United States)
| candidate = ]
| votes = 1,547,104
| percentage = 51.41%
| change = -15.90%
}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate=]|votes=1,380,126|percentage=45.86%|change=+16.38%}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Libertarian Party (United States)|candidate=Joseph Kexel|votes=62,240|percentage=2.07%|change=N/A}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Independent (United States)|candidate=Nimrod Allen, III|votes=16,455|percentage=0.55%|change=N/A}}
{{Election box write-in with party link
| votes = 3,486
| percentage = 0.11%
| change = +0.05%
}}
{{Election box total
| votes = 3,009,411
| percentage = 100.00%
| change = N/A
}}
{{Election box hold with party link no swing
| winner = Democratic Party (United States)
}}
{{Election box end}}

====Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican====
* ] (largest city: ])
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* ] (largest city: ])
* ] (largest city: ])
* ] (largest city: ])
* ] (largest city: ])
* ] (largest city: ])
* ] (largest city: ])
* ] (largest city: ])
* ] (largest city: ])
* ] (largest city: ])
* ] (largest city: ])
* ] (largest city: ])
*] (largest city: ])
*] (largest city: ])
*] (Largest city: ])
*] (Largest city: ])
*] (Largest city: ])
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*] (Largest city: ])
*] (Largest city: ])

====By congressional district====
Despite losing the state, Thompson won 5 of 8 congressional districts.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/07/09/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts |title=Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts |website=Daily Kos |access-date=11 August 2020}}</ref>

{|class=wikitable
|-
! District
! Thompson
! Baldwin
! Representative
|- style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|1|1st}}
| '''50.61%'''
| 46.56%
| {{party shading/Republican}}|]
|- style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|2|2nd}}
| 32.28%
| '''65.82%'''
| {{party shading/Democratic}}|]
|- style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|3|3rd}}
| 44.31%
| '''52.77%'''
| {{party shading/Democratic}}|]
|- style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Democratic}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|4|4th}}
| 25.15%
| '''72.93%'''
| {{party shading/Democratic}}|]
|- style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|5|5th}}
| '''61.06%'''
| 36.68%
| {{party shading/Republican}}|]
|- style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|6|6th}}
| '''52.93%'''
| 44.05%
| {{party shading/Republican}}|]
|- style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|7|7th}}
| '''48.93%'''
| 48.06%
| {{party shading/Republican}}|]
|- style="text-align:center"
! {{party shading/Republican}}|{{ushr|Wisconsin|8|8th}}
| '''50.21%'''
| 46.63%
| {{party shading/Republican}}|]
|}

==Aftermath==
Brian Schimming, the vice chairman of the ], partly blamed Thompson's defeat on the fact that he had to face a competitive primary whereas Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination: " blew all his money going through the primary. So when he gets through the primary, it was like three weeks before he was up on the air. piled on immediately." He claimed "If hadn't had as ugly a primary, we could have won that seat."<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/can-republicans-avoid-the-next-todd-akin-20130926 |title=Can Republicans Avoid the Next Todd Akin? |work=National Journal |author=Alex Roarty |date=September 26, 2013 |access-date=September 30, 2013}}</ref>

==See also==
* ]
* ]
* ]


==References== ==References==
{{reflist}} {{reflist}}
]
]
]


==External links== ==External links==
* at the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board * {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121107175743/http://gab.wi.gov/elections-voting |date=November 7, 2012}} at the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board
* at ] * at ]
* at ]
* at ]


'''Official candidate sites (Archived)'''
*
*
*
*


{{United States elections, 2012}} {{2012 United States elections}}

{{US-election-stub}}
]
]
]

Latest revision as of 10:30, 26 December 2024

2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
Turnout72.5% (voting eligible)
 
Nominee Tammy Baldwin Tommy Thompson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,547,104 1,380,126
Percentage 51.41% 45.86%
County resultsCongressional district results Precinct resultsBaldwin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Thompson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
     Tie      No data
U.S. senator before election

Herb Kohl
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

Elections in Wisconsin
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The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since 1988, when Kohl won his first term.

Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republican nominee was former Wisconsin Governor and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, who won with a plurality in a four-way primary race. In the general election, Baldwin defeated Thompson and won the open seat. She became the first woman elected to represent Wisconsin in the Senate and the first openly gay U.S. senator in history. This is also the only time Thompson lost a statewide race.

Background

Incumbent Democratic senator Herb Kohl was re-elected to a fourth term in 2006, beating Republican attorney Robert Lorge by 67% to 30%. Kohl's lack of fundraising suggested his potential retirement. There was speculation that Kohl might decide to retire to allow Russ Feingold, who lost his re-election bid in 2010, to run again, although Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, dismissed speculation about Kohl's potential retirement. Ultimately, Kohl announced in May 2011 that he would not run for re-election in 2012.

Democratic primary

Despite speculation that Kohl would retire to make way for his former Senate colleague Russ Feingold, who had been unseated in 2010, Feingold chose not to enter the race. Other potential candidates also declined to run, leaving Baldwin unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tammy
Baldwin 		Jon
Erpenbach 		Russ
Feingold 		Kathleen
Falk 		Steve
Kagen 		Ron
Kind 		Barbara
Lawton 		Gwen
Moore 		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 783 ±3.5% 12% 5% 70% 1% 3% 4% 1% 2% 3%
30% 13% — 4% 17% 16% 3% 6% 12%
Magellan Strategies July 12–13, 2011 627 ±3.9% 46% — — — 21% — — — 33%
41% — — — — 19% — — 40%
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 387 ±5% 48% — — — 19% — — — 33%
37% — — — 15% 21% — — 27%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Baldwin 185,265 99.77
Democratic Write ins 424 0.23
Total votes 185,689 100

Republican primary

Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan stated he would not run if Kohl sought reelection, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired. Ryan later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run. He was later chosen as the Republican nominee for vice president by presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Six candidates declared for the seat, although two later withdrew. The contest turned out to be a four-way fight. Although a large majority of Republican primary voters consistently expressed a preference for a nominee "more conservative" than Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann split the conservative vote, allowing Thompson to narrowly prevail with a plurality of the vote.

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Frank Lasee, state senator (endorsed Eric Hovde)
  • Kip Smith, physical therapist

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Fitzgerald 		Eric
Hovde 		Mark
Neumann 		Tommy
Thompson 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 8–9, 2012 557 ± 4.2% 15% 27% 24% 25% 9%
Marquette University August 2–5, 2012 519 ± 4.4% 13% 20% 18% 28% 7%
We Ask America July 31, 2012 1,237 ± 2.8% 12% 23% 17% 23% 25%
Public Policy Polling July 30–31, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 13% 28% 25% 25% 9%
— 33% 27% 30% 10%
Marquette University July 5–8, 2012 432 ± 4.8% 6% 23% 10% 35% 25%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 564 ± 4.1% 9% 31% 15% 29% 16%
OnMessage Inc. June 26–27, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 7% 29% 16% 34% 14%
Marquette University June 13–16, 2012 344 ± 5.4% 10% 14% 16% 34% 25%
Public Policy Polling March 31–April 1, 2012 609 ± 4.0% 18% — 25% 38% 19%
Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 556 ± 4.2% 22% — 22% 39% 17%
32% — 42% — 26%
37% — — 46% 17%
— — 36% 46% 18%
Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 650 ± 3.8% 21% — 29% 35% 11%
— — 39% 43% 17%
28% — 44% — 28%
35% — — 47% 17%
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 362 ± 5.2% — — 39% 47% 13%
Magellan Strategies July 12–13, 2011 638 ± 3.9% 15% — 26% 41% 18%
— — 36% 44% 20%
  • Commissioned by Eric Hovde
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tommy
Thompson 		Someone more
conservative 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 30–31, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 29% 58% 13%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 564 ± 4.1% 34% 50% 17%
Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 556 ± 4.2% 37% 47% 17%
Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 650 ± 3.8% 35% 51% 14%

Endorsements

Jeff Fitzgerald
  • Scott Suder, Wisconsin Assembly Majority Leader (Abbotsford)
  • Robin Vos, Wisconsin Assembly Finance Chair (Rochester)
  • Joan Ballweg, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Chair (Markesan)
  • Mary Williams, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Secretary (Medford)
  • Samantha Kerkman, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Sergeant at Arms (Randall)
  • Bill Kramer, Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Pro-Temp (Waukesha)
  • Dan Knodl, Wisconsin Assembly Assistant Assembly Majority Leader (Germantown)
  • Joel Kleefisch, Wisconsin State Representative (Oconomowoc)
  • Don Pridemore, Wisconsin State Representative (Hartford)
  • Paul Farrow, Wisconsin State Representative (Pewaukee)
  • Dale Kooyenga, Wisconsin State Representative (Brookfield)
  • Mike Kuglitsch, Wisconsin State Representative (New Berlin)
  • Jim Ott, Wisconsin State Representative (Brown Deer)
Eric Hovde Mark Neumann Tommy Thompson

Politicians

Celebrities and political commentators

Cabinet officials

  • Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 and 2001 to 2006, former White House chief of staff, and former ambassador
  • Donald L. Nelson, former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense
  • Ray Boland, colonel and former Veterans Affairs Secretary

State legislators

Political organization officials

  • David Keene, president of the National Rifle Association of America and former chairman of the American Conservative Union
  • Former Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Rick Graber
  • Wisconsin Club for Growth founders Terry and Mary Kohler
  • Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Sue Lynch
  • Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Ginny Marschman
  • Republican National Convention co-chairman Mary Buestrin

Law enforcement officials

  • Waukesha County Sheriff Daniel Trawicki
  • Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel

Organizations

  • Wisconsin Right to Life
  • Dairy Business Association
  • Wisconsin Corn Growers Association
  • Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation
  • Milwaukee Police Association
  • Milwaukee Police Supervisors Organization
  • Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association
  • Wisconsin Grocers Association
  • Wisconsin Restaurant Association
  • Chiropractic Society of Wisconsin
  • Wisconsin Health Care Association
  • Wisconsin Mortgage Bankers Association
  • GOProud

Results

Results by county   Thompson
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Hovde
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Neumann
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tommy Thompson 197,928 34.0
Republican Eric Hovde 179,557 30.8
Republican Mark Neumann 132,786 22.8
Republican Jeff Fitzgerald 71,871 12.3
Republican Write ins 244 0.04
Total votes 582,630 100

General election

Thompson and Baldwin with WISN-TV's Mike Gousha at the October 26 debate.

Candidates

Debates

Baldwin and Thompson agreed to three debates: September 28, October 18 and 26, all broadcast statewide, and nationwide through C-SPAN.

The first debate originated from the studios of Milwaukee Public Television and was coordinated by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association. It aired on MPTV, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and several commercial stations throughout the state.

The second debate originated from the Theater for Civic Engagement on the campus of the University of Wisconsin–Marathon County in Wausau and was coordinated by WPT/WPR, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Milwaukee's WTMJ-TV. Again it was carried on MPTV, WPT/WPR, and several commercial stations, including WTMJ-TV.

The third debate originated from Eckstein Hall on the campus of Marquette University Law School and was coordinated by WISN-TV in Milwaukee. It aired on that station and across the state's other ABC affiliated stations.

External links

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Tammy Baldwin (D) $14,643,869 $15,204,940 $143,852 $0
Tommy Thompson (R) $9,585,823 $9,582,888 $2,934 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors

Tammy Baldwin Contribution Tommy Thompson Contribution
EMILY's List $431,843 Michael Best & Friedrich LLP $36,825
MoveOn.org $171,467 ABC Supply $28,500
University of Wisconsin $117,600 Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld $28,250
J Street PAC $113,758 Direct Supply $27,500
League of Conservation Voters $95,308 Wisconsin Energy Corporation $25,750
Democracy Engine $81,330 American Foods Group $25,000
Council for a Livable World $54,130 Gilead Sciences $23,000
Voices for Progress $25,749 Centene Corporation $20,750
Marshfield Clinic $21,800 BGR Group $20,500
Microsoft Corporation $18,564 C. R. Bard, Inc. $20,000
Source: OpenSecrets

Top industries

Tammy Baldwin Contribution Tommy Thompson Contribution
Women's Issues $915,482 Retired $858,276
Retired $791,756 Leadership PACs $244,804
Lawyers/Law Firms $597,674 Financial Institutions $243,636
Democratic/Liberal $555,792 Lawyers/Law Firms $228,379
Leadership PACs $309,430 Real Estate $227,687
Universities $298,298 Pharmaceuticals/Health Products $204,302
Human Rights Organisations $215,539 Insurance Industry $202,654
Health Professionals $202,654 Manufacturing & Distributing $169,104
Pro-Israel $172,380 Health Professionals $150,149
Business Services $163,238 Lobbyists $138,700
Source: OpenSecrets

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report Tossup November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics Tossup November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		Tommy
Thompson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 44% 45% — 11%
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 42% 50% — 8%
Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ±2.9% 44% 46% — 10%
Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2011 500 ±4.5% 42% 49% 4% 6%
Marquette University February 16–19, 2012 716 ±3.7% 42% 48% 1% 9%
Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 900 ±3.3% 46% 45% — 9%
Rasmussen Reports February 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 36% 50% 4% 10%
Rasmussen Reports March 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 44% 48% 4% 4%
Public Policy Polling April 13–15, 2012 1,136 ±2.9% 45% 47% — 8%
Rasmussen Reports May 9, 2012 500 ±4.5% 38% 50% 5% 7%
Public Policy Polling May 11–13, 2012 851 ±3.4% 42% 47% — 11%
Rasmussen Reports June 12, 2012 500 ±4.5% 36% 52% 6% 6%
Marquette University June 13–16, 2012 707 ±3.8% 41% 49% — 10%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 1,057 ±3.0% 45% 45% — 11%
Marquette University July 5–8, 2012 810 ±3.5% 41% 45% — 14%
Rasmussen Reports July 25, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 41% 5% 6%
Marquette University August 2–5, 2012 1,400 ±2.6% 43% 48% — 5%
Quinnipiac July 31 – August 6, 2012 1,428 ±2.6% 47% 47% 1% 5%
Rasmussen Reports August 15, 2012 500 ±4.5% 43% 54% 1% 3%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012 1,308 ±2.7% 44% 49% — 7%
Marquette University August 16–19, 2012 576 ±4.2% 41% 50% — 9%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac August 15–21, 2012 1,190 ±3.0% 44% 50% 1% 4%
YouGov September 4–11, 2012 772 ±n/a 42% 48% — 10%
Public Policy Polling September 12–13, 2012 959 ±n/a 48% 45% — 6%
Marquette University September 13–16, 2012 705 ±3.8% 50% 41% — 5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac September 11–17, 2012 1,485 ±2.5% 47% 47% — 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll September 16–18, 2012 968 ±3.2% 48% 46% — 5%
Public Policy Polling September 18–19, 2012 842 ±3.4% 49% 45% — 6%
We Ask America September 20–23, 2012 1,238 ±2.8% 52% 40% — 8%
Marquette University September 27–30, 2012 894 ±3.3% 48% 44% — 6%
Public Policy Polling October 4–6, 2012 979 ±3.1% 49% 46% — 6%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac October 4–9, 2012 1,327 ±2.7% 48% 46% — 5%
Rasmussen Reports October 9, 2012 500 ±4.5% 51% 47% 1% 2%
YouGov October 4–11, 2012 639 ±4.9% 48% 43% — 9%
Marquette University October 11–14, 2012 870 ±3.3% 45% 46% — 7%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll October 15–17, 2012 1,013 ±3.1% 49% 45% 1% 5%
Mason-Dixon October 15–17, 2012 625 ±4% 47% 45% — 8%
Rasmussen Reports October 18, 2012 500 ±4.5% 46% 48% 3% 3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion October 18–20, 2012 502 ±4.5% 45% 42% 3% 11%
Rasmussen Reports October 25, 2012 500 ±4.5% 47% 48% 2% 4%
Marquette University October 25–28, 2012 1,243 ±2.8% 47% 43% — 10%
St. Norbert College October 25–29, 2012 402 ±5% 43% 46% — 11%
Rasmussen Reports October 29, 2012 750 ±4.0% 48% 48% 1% 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 31, 2012 1,065 ±3.0% 48% 47% 4% 1%
WeAskAmerica October 31 – November 1, 2012 1,210 ±3% 49% 46% — 5%
YouGov October 31 – November 3, 2012 1,225 ±3.1% 48% 47% — 5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion November 1–3, 2012 482 ±4.5% 50% 48% 2% —
Public Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012 1,256 ±2.8% 51% 48% — 2%
Hypothetical polling

with Tammy Baldwin

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		Jeff
Fitzgerald (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 48% 37% — 15%
Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ±2.9% 44% 40% — 16%
Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2011 500 ±4.5% 46% 39% 4% 6%
Marquette University February 16–19, 2012 716 ±3.7% 45% 37% 3% 15%
Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 900 ±3.3% 47% 39% — 14%
Rasmussen Reports February 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 40% 41% 4% 15%
Rasmussen Reports March 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 40% 4% 7%
Public Policy Polling April 13–15, 2012 1,136 ±2.9% 47% 40% — 13%
Rasmussen Reports May 9, 2012 500 ±4.5% 45% 41% 4% 9%
Rasmussen Reports June 12, 2012 500 ±4.5% 44% 43% 5% 8%
Marquette University June 13–16, 2012 707 ±3.8% 45% 39% — 16%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 1,057 ±3.0% 46% 42% — 13%
Marquette University July 5–8, 2012 810 ±3.5% 43% 37% — 20%
Rasmussen Reports July 25, 2012 500 ±4.5% 47% 37% 6% 10%
Marquette University August 2–5, 2012 1,400 ±2.6% 45% 40% — 7%
Quinnipiac July 31 – August 6, 2012 1,428 ±2.6% 51% 39% — 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		Eric
Hovde (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 11–13, 2012 851 ±3.4% 41% 45% — 14%
Rasmussen Reports June 12, 2012 500 ±4.5% 42% 44% 4% 10%
Marquette University June 13–16, 2012 707 ±3.8% 45% 36% — 19%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 1,057 ±3.0% 44% 45% — 11%
Marquette University July 5–8, 2012 810 ±3.5% 44% 38% — 18%
Rasmussen Reports July 25, 2012 500 ±4.5% 45% 42% 5% 8%
Marquette University August 2–5, 2012 1,400 ±2.6% 44% 41% — 9%
Quinnipiac July 31 – August 6, 2012 1,428 ±2.6% 47% 43% 1% 8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		Mark
Neumann (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 46% 41% — 13%
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 40% 44% — 15%
Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ±2.9% 44% 43% — 13%
Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2011 500 ±4.5% 44% 43% 4% 9%
Marquette University February 16–19, 2012 716 ±3.7% 44% 40% 2% 14%
Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 900 ±3.3% 47% 41% — 12%
Rasmussen Reports February 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 37% 46% 4% 13%
Rasmussen Reports March 27, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 40% 4% 8%
Public Policy Polling April 13–15, 2012 1,136 ±2.9% 46% 45% — 9%
Rasmussen Reports May 9, 2012 500 ±4.5% 42% 44% 4% 9%
Public Policy Polling May 11–13, 2012 851 ±3.4% 42% 46% — 12%
Rasmussen Reports June 12, 2012 500 ±4.5% 43% 45% 5% 7%
Marquette University June 13–16, 2012 707 ±3.8% 44% 44% — 12%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 1,057 ±3.0% 45% 41% — 13%
Marquette University July 5–8, 2012 810 ±3.5% 43% 40% — 17%
Rasmussen Reports July 25, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 42% 3% 8%
Marquette University August 2–5, 2012 1,400 ±2.6% 44% 44% — 6%
Quinnipiac July 31 – August 6, 2012 1,428 ±2.6% 48% 45% 1% 6%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Tammy
Baldwin (D) 		J. B.
Van Hollen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 46% 39% — 15%

with Russ Feingold

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Jeff
Fitzgerald (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 55% 39% — 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Mark
Neumann (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 51% 44% — 5%
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 53% 41% — 6%
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011 768 ±3.5% 50% 40% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Paul
Ryan (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2010 702 ±3.7% 50% 43% — 7%
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011 768 ±3.5% 49% 42% — 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Tommy
Thompson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2010 702 ±3.7% 49% 40% — 11%
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 52% 42% — 6%
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 48% 47% — 5%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		J. B.
Van Hollen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2010 702 ±3.7% 52% 41% — 7%
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011 768 ±3.5% 51% 39% — 10%
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 53% 38% — 9%

with Steve Kagen

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Kagen (D) 		Jeff
Fitzgerald (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 43% 38% — 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Kagen (D) 		Mark
Neumann (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 42% 41% — 17%
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 38% 45% — 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Kagen (D) 		Tommy
Thompson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 42% 45% — 13%
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 41% 49% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Kagen (D) 		J. B.
Van Hollen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 43% 38% — 19%

with Ron Kind

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Kind (D) 		Jeff
Fitzgerald (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 45% 37% — 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Kind (D) 		Mark
Neumann (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 44% 40% — 16%
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 40% 43% — 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Kind (D) 		Tommy
Thompson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 44% 44% — 12%
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 830 ±3.4% 41% 48% — 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Kind (D) 		J. B.
Van Hollen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ±2.4% 44% 38% — 17%

with Herb Kohl

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Herb
Kohl (D) 		Mark
Neumann (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011 768 ±3.5% 51% 37% — 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Herb
Kohl (D) 		Paul
Ryan (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2010 702 ±3.7% 48% 42% — 11%
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011 768 ±3.5% 49% 42% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Herb
Kohl (D) 		Tommy
Thompson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2010 702 ±3.7% 49% 40% — 11%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Herb
Kohl (D) 		J. B.
Van Hollen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2010 702 ±3.7% 51% 38% — 11%
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011 768 ±3.5% 52% 37% — 11%

Results

United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2012
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tammy Baldwin 1,547,104 51.41% −15.90%
Republican Tommy Thompson 1,380,126 45.86% +16.38%
Libertarian Joseph Kexel 62,240 2.07% N/A
Independent Nimrod Allen, III 16,455 0.55% N/A
Write-in 3,486 0.11% +0.05%
Total votes 3,009,411 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Thompson won 5 of 8 congressional districts.

District Thompson Baldwin Representative
1st 50.61% 46.56% Paul Ryan
2nd 32.28% 65.82% Mark Pocan
3rd 44.31% 52.77% Ron Kind
4th 25.15% 72.93% Gwen Moore
5th 61.06% 36.68% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 52.93% 44.05% Tom Petri
7th 48.93% 48.06% Sean Duffy
8th 50.21% 46.63% Reid Ribble

Aftermath

Brian Schimming, the vice chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, partly blamed Thompson's defeat on the fact that he had to face a competitive primary whereas Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination: " blew all his money going through the primary. So when he gets through the primary, it was like three weeks before he was up on the air. piled on immediately." He claimed "If hadn't had as ugly a primary, we could have won that seat."

See also

References

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  99. Public Policy Polling
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  106. Public Policy Polling
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  109. YouGov
  110. Marquette University
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  113. Rasmussen Reports
  114. Angus Reid Public Opinion
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  116. Marquette University
  117. St. Norbert College
  118. NBC/WSJ/Marist
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  120. YouGov
  121. Angus Reid Public Opinion
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  125. "Canvass Results for 2012 Presidential and General Election - 11/6/2012" (PDF). G.A.B. Canvass Reporting System. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 14, 2016.
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  127. Alex Roarty (September 26, 2013). "Can Republicans Avoid the Next Todd Akin?". National Journal. Retrieved September 30, 2013.

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