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United States presidential election, 2008

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Electoral college votes for 2008

The United States presidential election of 2008, scheduled to be held on November 4, 2008, will be the 56th consecutive quadrennial election for president and vice president of the United States. This presidential election schedule coincides with the 2008 Senate elections, House of Representatives elections, and gubernatorial elections, as well as many state and local elections.

Under Article Two of the United States Constitution, as amended by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution, an Electoral College will elect the president. These electors are appointed by mechanisms chosen by each state's legislature (prevailingly, by popular vote of the voters of each state). The individual who receives a majority of votes for president — 270 votes are needed for a majority — will be the president-elect of the United States; and the individual who receives a majority of electoral votes for vice president will be the vice president-elect of the United States. If no presidential candidate receives a majority in the Electoral College, then the president-elect will be selected by a vote of the House of Representatives, with each state receiving a single vote. If no vice presidential candidate receives a majority, then the vice president-elect will be selected by a vote of the Senate. Although rare, these latter scenarios have occurred twice in America's history, in 1825 and 1837.

As in the 2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be partially based on the 2000 Census. The president-elect and vice president-elect are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2009.

2008 presidential election characteristics

First election without incumbents in the primaries since 1928

When a United States President leaves office, his vice president is usually considered a leading candidate and likely nominee to succeed him. In 2001, Vice President Dick Cheney announced that he would never run for president, a statement he re-iterated in 2004. While appearing on Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve." The 2008 election will therefore mark the first time since the 1928 election in which there is neither an incumbent president nor an incumbent vice president running for his party's nomination in the presidential election. The 1952 election was the last time neither the incumbent president nor incumbent vice president ran in the general election, after President Harry S. Truman bowed out following his loss in the New Hampshire primary and Vice President Alben Barkley then sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination. (Truman's name was on the New Hampshire primary ballot but he did not campaign. He lost to Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver and formally withdrew his name from consideration.)

In the three most recent presidential administrations featuring an outgoing two-term president — those of Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton — the incumbent vice president has immediately thereafter run for president. (Richard Nixon lost the 1960 election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election.)

In the 1968 election, Lyndon B. Johnson initially decided to seek re-election. He entered the New Hampshire primary and won. However, he had a national poll conducted, which yielded results not in his favor. In a nationally televised speech, Johnson announced to the public that he would not seek re-election. Incumbent Vice President Hubert Humphrey ran instead and was the eventual Democratic Party nominee.

During this period, several former vice presidents have sought the office of president as non-incumbents. Henry A. Wallace was the Progressive Party nominee in 1948. Nixon was elected in 1968. Walter Mondale received his party's nomination in 1984. Dan Quayle was unsuccessful in bids for nomination in 1996 and 2000.

Unless a Dole or Bush is unexpectedly nominated for vice president, 2008 is the first presidential election since 1972 which will not feature a member of one family or the other running for either president or vice president.

Campaign costs

The reported cost of campaigning for President has increased significantly in recent years. One source reported that if the costs for both Democratic and Republican campaigns are added together (for the Presidential primary election, general election, and the political conventions) the costs have more than doubled in only eight years ($448.9 million in 1996, $649.5 million in 2000, and $1.01 billion in 2004). In January 2007, Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner estimated that the 2008 race will be a "$1 billion election," and that to be "taken seriously," a candidate needed to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007.

Although he has said that he will not be running for president, published reports indicate that billionaire and New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg has been considering a presidential bid with $1 billion of his own fortune to finance it. Should Bloomberg decide to run as an independent, he would not need to campaign in the primary elections or participate in the conventions, greatly reducing both the necessary length and cost of his campaign.

With the increase in money, the public financing system funded by the presidential election campaign fund checkoff has not been used by many candidates. So far, John McCain, Tom Tancredo, John Edwards, Chris Dodd, and Joe Biden have qualified for and elected to take public funds in the primary. Other major candidates have eschewed the low amount of spending permitted and have chosen not to participate.

Effect of the Internet

In late April, Huffington Post, Yahoo!, and Slate magazine announced that they would be hosting one Democratic and one Republican debate for Presidential hopefuls. The debates were proposed to be held after Labor Day and hosted by Charlie Rose. Of the debates, Arianna Huffington remarked "It was clear to me, the 2008 campaign was going to be dominated by what's happening online — new technologies, new media like never before." Whether or not the debates were actually held, however, was not considered sufficiently relevant to merit a mention in such popular online references as Misplaced Pages.

Yahoo! Answers has become a platform for an ongoing Q & A process for voters to ask and answer questions posed by presidential candidates and US voters

Many of the presidential candidates have been trying to connect with younger voters, through YouTube, MySpace, and Facebook. Republican Ron Paul and Democratic Party candidate Barack Obama have been the most active in courting voters through the Internet. On December 16, 2007, Ron Paul collected more money on a single day through Internet donations than any presidential candidate in US history with over $6 million.

The Internet has also been used to make anonymous attacks on candidates.

CNN-YouTube Debates

CNN and YouTube hosted a debate between the Democratic presidential candidates on July 23, 2007 at The Citadel in Charleston, South Carolina, and a debate between the Republican presidential candidates on November 28, 2007 at the Mahaffey Theatre in St. Petersburg. Questions came primarily from YouTube viewer submitted videos, with 39 questions asked of the Democrats and 31 of the Republican candidates about divisive issues respective to each party. In the Democratic debate, most observers agreed that none of the candidates debating particularly outshone their rivals, doing nothing to challenge Hillary Clinton's position as the Democratic race's front-runner.

Controversy

Voter fraud was alleged after the New Hampshire primary when it was revealed that precincts counting ballots by hand produced different results than precincts which counted ballots electronically. The story initially was only reported online, but later drew the attention of mainstream news outlets. Most observers have concluded that demographic trends influence both a community's means of counting ballots, and which candidates the community is likely to support. As a result, most mainstream news outlets and politicians are skeptical that any fraud affected the races' outcomes, dismissing the assertion otherwise as a "conspiracy theory." Nevertheless, a recount has been initiated, paid for by Democratic candidate Dennis Kucinich and Republican Albert Howard. The Deputy Secretary of State, David Scanlan, said a Republican recount will cost $57,600 and a Democratic recount, with more votes cast, will cost $67,600.

In many of the towns and wards, the vote counts have been identical. Some minor changes have been made when voters didn't follow directions and marked ballots that were impossible for the machines to read. The one major exception has been Ward 5 in Manchester, where votes for all the major candidates dropped significantly after the recount. Clinton's total went from 683 to 619, Obama's went from 404 to 365, and other candidates saw similar drops. Excluding the results of Ward 5 the error rate was less than 1%. The reason for Ward 5 was the poll worker added the vice presidential and presidential totals before reporting Howard, according to his campaign Web site, some of his primary objectives include banning electronic voting. Quin Monson, assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at BYU stated "There are people that don't trust the technology, His request for the recount is likely a response to that crowd."

Timeline

Early stages

Federal law requires reporting of funds spent and raised for elections. Potential candidates harboring serious intentions of running in the 2008 election had to create and register a campaign committee before receiving contributions. As the first candidates began filing the paperwork, other politicians felt a pressure to build support before a front-runner emerged, spurring on further declarations of candidacy. News media coverage and attendant "buzz" would increase around certain individuals, and those without an active campaign (and not just a legal status as a candidate) risked being regarded non-contenders. Most potential candidates formed exploratory committees or announced their candidacies outright by November 2006. The goals of these committees were media attention and fund-raising. Broadcast media discussions by various pundits and a series of events sponsored by the different parties during 2007, including debates, straw polls, and other events were staged to give voters a chance to get to know the candidates. The Democrats, for example, hosted a series of candidate forums and debates in Nevada, which began on February 21, as well as a debate in South Carolina on April 26.

The Republican Party also planned events for the candidates, for example, the televised debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California on May 3, was the first of a series that would last through the summer and fall, and after the traditional Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on August 11, Tommy Thompson withdrew from the race after faring poorly there.

"Front runner" status is dependent on the news agency reporting, but by October 2007, the consensus listed about six candidates as leading the pack. For example, CNN lists Clinton, Edwards, Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Obama, and Mitt Romney as the front runners. The Washington Post listed Clinton, Edwards and Obama as the Democratic frontrunners, "leading in polls and fundraising and well ahead of the other major candidates." MSNBC's Chuck Todd christened Giuliani and McCain the Republican front runners after the second Republican presidential debate.

Three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Romney, raised over $20 million in the first three months of 2007, and three others, Edwards, Giuliani, and McCain, raised over $12 million, the next closest candidate was Bill Richardson, who raised over $6 million. In the third quarter of 2007, the top four GOP fund raisers were Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, and Paul. Paul set the GOP record for the largest online single day fund raising on November 5, 2007. Hillary Clinton set the Democratic record for largest single day fund raising on June 30, 2007.

According to a poll featured on ABC News and released February 2007, 65 percent of respondents stated that they are following the 2008 election closely, a very high number considering that the election was more than a year away.

Official primary and caucus dates

Delegates to national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, state caucuses, and state conventions. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries. This is due to winning candidates collecting a majority of committed delegates to win their party's nomination. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.

Both parties have adopted rules to prevent early primaries and have acted to strip some or all delegates from states that have disobeyed.

February 5, 2008, one month before the traditional Super Tuesday, looks set to be a decisive date, as up to twenty states, with half of the population of the United States among them, are moving to hold their primaries on what is being called Tsunami Tuesday, National Presidential Primary Day, Giga Tuesday, The Unofficial National Primary or Super Duper Tuesday.

Later events

• April 2008: 2008 Constitution Party National Convention, to be held in Kansas City, Missouri.
• May 23-26, 2008: 2008 Libertarian National Convention, to be held in Denver, Colorado.
• July 10-13, 2008: Green Party National Convention, to be held in Chicago, Illinois.
• August 25-28, 2008: 2008 Democratic National Convention, to be held in Denver, Colorado.
• September 1-4, 2008: 2008 Republican National Convention, to be held in Saint Paul, Minnesota.
• November 4, 2008: All 50 states and the District of Columbia will hold elections to select members of the Electoral College.
• December 15, 2008: Members of the U.S. Electoral College meet in each state to cast their votes for President and Vice President.
• January 6, 2009: Electoral votes officially tallied before both Houses of Congress. Even if there are lawsuits pending over the certification of a state's electoral votes, all objections to the certification of a state's electoral votes must be made now.
• January 20, 2009: Inauguration Day.

Candidates and potential candidates

Template:Future election candidate Politicians with ambition have begun to express formally their desire for the presidency in the form of "exploratory committees," which allow the hopeful to raise money and travel without having to follow certain financial restrictions mandated by federal law. With official events, such as debates and candidate forums, beginning as early as February 2007, the status of a candidate will be based on whether or not he or she is invited. Several minor candidates in the past have tried to litigate their way in, generating some publicity but little public support.

Politicians who have expressed interest in a 2008 candidacy and have not ruled it out qualify for listing in the "Potential candidates" sections. Candidates marked with a † have not registered with the Federal Election Commission for a presidential campaign.

Major parties

Democratic Party

Candidates for the Democratic Party:

Withdrawn candidates:

• Tom Vilsack, former Governor of Iowa, a presidential candidate from November 30, 2006 to February 23, 2007, withdrew from seeking the Democratic nomination due to a lack of funds and endorsed Senator Clinton.
• Joe Biden, US Senator of Delaware, withdrew on January 3, 2008 after the Iowa Caucuses due to lack of support.
• Christopher Dodd, US Senator of Connecticut, withdrew on January 3, 2008 after the Iowa Caucuses due to lack of support.
• Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico, former U.S. Representative from New Mexico, former Secretary of Energy, and former United States Ambassador to the UN. Dropped out after the New Hampshire Primaries.
• Dennis Kucinich, US Congressman of Ohio has not offically withdrawn yet. His office stated on January 24th 2008 that he will be dropping out of the race to focus on his relection for his congressional seat. He is expected to annouce his withdrawal on January 25th.

Republican Party

Candidates for the Republican Party:

Additional third tier candidates have filed with the FEC - See main article.

Withdrawn candidates:

• Jim Gilmore, former Governor of Virginia, a presidential candidate from December 19, 2006 to July 14, 2007, withdrew from seeking the Republican nomination, citing fundraising problems.
• Tommy Thompson, former Governor of Wisconsin and former Secretary of Health and Human Services, a presidential candidate from April 1, 2007 to August 12, 2007, withdrew from seeking the Republican nomination, citing a poor showing in the Ames Straw Poll held on August 11, and endorsed Rudy Giuliani.
• Sam Brownback, U.S. Senator from Kansas, a presidential candidate from January 20, 2007 to October 19, 2007, withdrew from seeking the Republican nomination, citing poor fundraising. He later endorsed John McCain for President.
• John H. Cox, a lawyer, accountant, businessman, and broadcaster, was the first Republican to formally seek the party's 2008 nomination for president, but dropped out of the race in December 2007.
• Tom Tancredo, U.S. Representative from Colorado, a presidential candidate from April 2, 2007 to December 20, 2007, withdrew from seeking the Republican nomination. After announcing that he was ending his campaign, Tancredo endorsed Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
• Duncan Hunter, a California U.S. Representative, dropped out on Jan. 19 after the Nevada caucus due to a lack of support. He has since then endorsed Mike Huckabee.
• Fred Thompson, former U.S. Senator from Tennessee, dropped out on Jan. 22, having garnered 8 delegates. The Thompson campaign confirmed that he would not be endorsing any candidates.

Other parties

Constitution Party

Candidates for the Constitution Party:

• Don J. Grundmann of California (Campaign site)
• Bryan Malatesta of Texas
• Diane Beall Templin of California

Green Party

Candidates for the Green Party (Official Press Release):

• Jesse Johnson of West Virginia, former Mountain Party candidate for US Senate and Governor of West Virginia
• Cynthia McKinney of Georgia, former Congresswoman
• Kent Mesplay of California, California Delegate to the Green National Committee (Campaign site)
• Kat Swift of Texas, co-chair of Texas Green Party (Campaign site)

Draft candidates

• Ralph Nader of Connecticut (Draft Movement)

Libertarian Party

Candidates for the Libertarian Party:

• Daniel Imperato of Florida (Campaign Site)
• Bob Jackson of Michigan (Campaign Site)
• Mike Jingozian of Oregon (Campaign Site)
• Steve Kubby of California (Campaign Site)
• Alden Link of New York. (Campaign Site)
• George Phillies of Massachusetts (Campaign Site)
• Wayne Allyn Root of Nevada (Campaign Site)
• Christine Smith of Colorado (Campaign Site)

Draft candidates:

• Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman from Texas, has been running as a Republican. The Libertarian Party has requested Paul to run again as a Libertarian (as he did in 1988) if he does not earn the Republican nomination.

Self-declared potential candidates:

• Ed Thompson, former Tomah, Wisconsin mayor and 2002 Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate.

Prohibition Party

• Gene Amondson was nominated at national convention on September 13, 2007.

Socialist Party USA

The Socialist Party USA nominated Brian Moore of Florida for president, and Stewart Alexander of California for vice-president, at the party's St. Louis convention, October 19-21, 2007.

Socialist Workers Party

The Socialist Workers Party nominated Róger Calero for president, and Alyson Kennedy for vice-president.

Unity08 Party

No official candidate for the newly formed Unity08 Party had been announced, but the two most frequently mentioned prospects were Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg and Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel. Former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn has expressed possible interest in seeking the party's nomination.

The Unity08 organization suspended (but did not abandon) its efforts to seek a Presidential candidate in January 2008, citing a lack of funds .

Withdrawn candidates (minor parties)

• Green Party candidate Alan Augustson of Illinois withdrew on June 30 2007, to seek instead the United States House of Representatives seat for the Illinois' 5th congressional district.
• Jared Ball was seeking the Green Party nomination, but withdrew on January 13, 2008.
• Jerome Corsi was seeking the Constitution Party nomination, but withdrew on July 14, 2007.
• Doug Stanhope, comedian, had publicly announced, in early to middle 2007, his intentions to run for the Libertarian Party nomination, but withdrew due to Federal Election Commission regulations on May 3 2007.

Independents

Candidates running as Independents:

• Steve Adams of Kentucky (Campaign site)
• Donald K. Allen of Ohio (Campaign Site)
• Blake Ashby of Missouri (Campaign Site)
• John Taylor Bowles of South Carolina (Campaign Site)
• Don Cordell of California (Campaign Site)
• Jon A Greenspon of California (Campaign Site)
• Jack Grimes of Pennsylvania (Campaign Site)
• Vincent S. Hamm of Colorado (Campaign Site)
• David Koch of Utah (Campaign site)
• Thomas J. Kozee Jr. of Ohio (Campaign Site)
• Brad Lord-Leutwyler of Nevada (Campaign Site)
• Michael Stephen Levinson of New York (Campaign Site)
• Colleen Stevens ~ Co Martin of New Mexico, and running mate Kenneth Edward Fatula, of Pennsylvania (Campaign Site)
• David J. Masters of North Carolina (Campaign Site)
• Charles T. Maxham of New Jersey (Campaign Site)
• James H. McCall of Ohio (Campaign Site)
• Jerry Odom of Ohio (Campaign site)
• Joe Schriner of Ohio (Campaign Site)
• Kelcey Wilson of California (Campaign Site)

Draft candidates

• Michael Bloomberg, New York City mayor.,

Self-declared potential candidates

• Michael Moriarty, actor, writer, musician, and political activist.
• Sam Nunn, former U.S. Senator (D-Georgia)

Opinion polling

Possible electoral college changes

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

The Compact, if passed by states representing a controlling majority of the electoral college, would require states cast their electoral votes for the national popular winner, essentially shifting the election to a popular vote. As of January 13, 2008, Maryland and New Jersey have enacted the law. It is highly unlikely that the NPV could take effect in time for the 2008 election.

DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act of 2007

In 2007, Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-VA) introduced the "DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act of 2007" in the United States House of Representatives. If enacted, the act would have the effect of increasing the size of the electoral college by one. The bill's primary purpose is to give House representation to the District of Columbia, alongside an additional electoral college vote award to Utah in order to balance the addition. The Congressional Research Service has determined that if passed, the bill would likely be found unconstitutional, on the suggested basis that Congress does not have the authority to grant a Representative to the District.

The bill also grants, for partisan balancing, an additional House seat to Utah, which very narrowly missed gaining another seat in the 2000 census, and increases Utah's electoral votes by 1, since Utah is likely to vote Republican and the District of Columbia is likely to vote Democratic. However, this will only be valid until the next census, when the extra seat will be reapportioned like all other seats. The District of Columbia's electoral vote count would remain unchanged at three, as required by the 23rd amendment. The likely effect of the change, if enacted, on the 2008 presidential election would be to give a +1 advantage to the Republican candidate: Utah has not been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and in the most recent election gave the Republican 71% of the vote. Even though the size of the electoral college would increase to 539, a candidate would still need 270 electoral votes to win.

Presidential Election Reform Act (California)

There is a proposed initiative in the state of California to alter, in time for the 2008 election, the way the state's electoral votes for president are distributed among presidential candidates. Under the proposed measure, it would switch from a winner-takes-all system to a system under which every candidate receives electoral votes based on their percentage of the popular vote in California. The Democratic Party has opposed this, saying that it will give an unfair advantage to Republicans and is tantamount to electoral fraud.

As of September 27, 2007, efforts to get the initiative on the ballot appeared to be dead. However, it gained new life in late October 2007, when a new organization began raising the money thought needed to get the initiative on the ballot.

In order to appear on the June 3, 2008, ballot, the initiative must garner approximately 434,000 signatures by February 4, 2008, according to California's Secretary of State. However the signatures were not submitted in time for the June 3 ballot which means it can appear at the earliest on the November 4,2008 ballot.

Potential battleground states

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Pundits and political experts have identified certain battleground states where close votes might prove crucial to the outcome of the election. These states could include, but may not be limited to:

Electoral College votes in parentheses

• Arkansas: (6) Although a conservative state in the heart of the Bible Belt, the Democratic Party is a powerful force in Arkansas and Democrats tend to have a comfortable advantage in statewide races. Presently, the Governor, both U.S. Senators, and three out of four of the Arkansas' House members are Democrats, and Democrats control the state legislature by a large margin. The Arkansas Democratic Party tends to be more conservative than the national party, however, and as a result voters there tend to be open to Republican Presidential candidates. Though favorite son Bill Clinton won Arkansas easily both times he ran, Arkansas gave their electoral votes to Bush in 2000 and 2004 by a fairly large margin. Arkansas has a large African American population, which could favor the Democratic candidate.

• Colorado: (9) The "Centennial State" is holding its second Democratic National Convention in Denver after 100 years. The election of Ken Salazar, a Hispanic-American to the U.S. Senate; Bill Ritter to the Governorship in 2006 and a U.S. House seat pick-up in 2006 made it a prized apple for the Democrats, prompting DNC Chairman Howard Dean to claim that the West holds the key to victory in 2008, which effectively made Denver the location of the Convention. A strong Hispanic-American concentration and the attention brought to bear on such issues as immigration reform, labor union support and minimum wage have made this a possible Democratic state. Republicans, however, still claim this state because of their support of gun rights and their stance on social conservative issues, and pundits have marked Colorado as the initial favorite for the Republicans.

• Florida: (27) The deciding state in 2000, whose votes went – narrowly and controversially – to George W. Bush. Florida is situated in the South, which has become a Republican stronghold. Experts agree that the winner of Florida will have a significant advantage towards advancing to the White House. Florida has trended toward the Republican Party since 2000. For Democrats, the vote of the elderly is seen as a potential boon, due to the party's traditional stance on Medicare and Social Security (two key components of winning the elderly vote), while Republicans have an advantage with their stance on tax cuts and values issues. The Hispanic and African American populations in Florida could also give the Democrats an edge in a close race. As for Republicans, the business attention of tax cuts and Cuban-American attention has made it a strong contender. Also, Florida's recently-elected governor, Republican Charlie Crist, has enjoyed high approval ratings and has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential nominee on the 2008 GOP ticket.

• Indiana: (11) Traditionally a Republican stronghold but in 2006, Democrats won three house seats here. Another factor that may drag down the Republican ticket might be Governor Mitch Daniels, who has become very unpopular in the state. Also in 2006, Democrats gained control of State House. The state hasn't voted for a Democratic Presidential Nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, but a poll out by the Indianapolis Star, features a generic Democrat leading a generic Republican in the Presidential election 37%-32%. The poll shows the War in Iraq and the sluggish economy to be the biggest issues among Hoosiers. Also, the poll found that a Democratic ticket featuring Indiana Senator Evan Bayh would boost the possibility of Indiana switching alliances.

• Iowa: (7) Iowa traditionally leans Republican, but has straddled the fence recently; it went for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004. In 2006, Democrats retained control of the Governor's Mansion with the election of Chet Culver and the addition of two U.S. House seats. Also, for the first time in four decades, Democrats gained complete control of the state legislature, further enhancing the progress of the Democrats. Still, agriculture policies and conservative values make it a magnet for the Republicans.

• Kentucky: (8) With a Democratic pick-up of the Governor's Mansion in November 2007, and a troubled state Republican Party, Kentucky will be in play. Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher was defeated for re-election on November 6, 2007, and Senators Mitch McConnell and Jim Bunning's approval have dropped recently. McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, is up for re-election in 2008. Although it went to the Republicans in 2000 and 2004 by strong margins, it was previously won by Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Pundits have put Kentucky in the Republican column.

• Michigan: (17) The "Great Lakes State" has been a fairly safe bet for the Democrats in recent decades, giving its substantial electoral votes to Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and John Kerry. However, with each election, the margin of victory has narrowed, opening a window for the Republicans. Populism and a historically strong labor movement have dominated the state and given Democrats an advantage, but Republicans have gained ground in advancing tax cuts and other social issues appealing to "Reagan Democrats". A population exodus from Democratic Detroit has made the conservative Republican west more influential. Still, Democratic governor Jennifer Granholm was soundly re-elected in 2006, while presiding over a one-state recession.

• Minnesota: (10) Minnesota has been a traditionally Democratic state in recent decades, but in the past two presidential elections, the elections have been competitive between the GOP and Democratic candidates. The 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate election is also stated to be competitive, with Republican Norm Coleman running for re-election and commentator Al Franken actively seeking the Democratic nomination. The Republicans are holding their National Convention in Saint Paul hoping to sway the election toward Republicans this time. The last Republican presidential candidate to win in Minnesota was President Richard Nixon in 1972; since then, it has generally been solid ground for the Democrats. But in 2000 and 2004, the margin of victory was small, encouraging multiple visits by candidates in both parties. In 2006, however, the Democratic Farmer Labor Party picked up a house seat and gained 19 legislative seats and six state senate seats.

• Missouri: (11) The "Show Me State" has been long been dubbed the bellwether for the nation because historically it has correlated very closely with the national Zeitgeist – with the single exception of 1956, Missouri has supported the winner of every Presidential election since 1904. The home state of President Harry Truman leans slightly Republican, and granted its 11 electoral votes to Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Despite the relative strength of Republicans in this Midwestern state, it has a strong penchant for advancing populist causes such as stem cell research and universal health care. In 2006, Missouri elected its first female U.S. Senator in Democrat Claire McCaskill. Moreover, the national mood souring over the war in Iraq makes this state a strong possibility for the Democrats.

• Nevada: (5) Although Nevada has historically leaned Republican, the high concentration of labor unions and Hispanic-American vote make it a potential battleground state. (Its 2006 Gubernatorial election was particularly competitive, and Republican Jim Gibbons won by only a slim margin.) The Las Vegas metropolitan area with its dramatic increase in population has become an attractive destination for Democratic campaign resources, and Democrats are buoyed by the strong disapproval ratings of Gibbons (29 percent approval rating as of March 2007) and Bush (34 percent approval rating as of March 2007). Furthermore, Nevada has, with the single exception of 1976, been won by the victor of every US Presidential election since 1912, a record which makes it a secondary bellwether state.

• New Hampshire: (4) Once very reliably Republican, New Hampshire became a swing state in the 1990s. Republicans still have somewhat of an edge in statewide elections, however the Democrats took control of the state legislature and both Congressional seats in 2006. The New Hampshire Republican Party tends to be more socially liberal than the national party, and as a result their behavior in national elections is harder to determine. New Hampshire was the only state in the nation that went for Bush in 2000 and then for Kerry in 2004, although by narrow margins both times.

• New Mexico: (5) New Mexico has been long eschewed as a nominal state, but that thinking has changed dramatically. With elections being heavily contested and victories being decided by two or three states, New Mexico has become one of the centers of political fighting. In 2000, Gore won by a razor-thin margin and in 2004, Bush won by a small, yet safe margin. These results have made experts conclude that New Mexico's five electoral votes, even though small in calculation, could tip the balance. New Mexico's large Hispanic and Native American populations tend to vote Democrat, and could be the key for a Democratic candidate in a close race. Its penchant for populist streaks have made it an attraction for the Democrats, with Gov. Bill Richardson joining the crowd for the Democratic nomination, based on the calculation that Democrats need to win such Western states to advance their path towards succeeding Bush.

• Ohio: (20) "I think 2008 is very likely to be a hotly contested race in Ohio," stated Eric Rademacher, director of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, for the Cincinnati Enquirer. Its 20 electoral votes were critical to President Bush's reelection in 2004, and their tally was close enough to be contested. In 2006, Ohio voters elected Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown for Governor and U.S. Senator, respectively.

• Oregon: (7) A Democratic-leaning state, with generally strong beliefs in civil liberties and liberal ideology on social issues. However, the eastern two-thirds of the state often votes Republican, and in 2000 and 2004 George W. Bush carried every county east of the Cascades. The state has gone to the Democrats from the 1988 election onward.

• Pennsylvania: (21) Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Pedro A. Cortés stated on March 17, 2007, that "The commonwealth’s large number of electoral college votes and diverse population make Pennsylvania a key battleground state." Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic since 1992, giving its electoral votes to Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996), Gore (2000) and Kerry (2004). President Bush visited the state more than 40 times during his 2004 campaign.

• Tennessee: (11) Tennessee was not expected to be competitive in 2008, but recent polls have shown that Democrats could be very competitive in the state. And while Tennessee did go to Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, it has not been kind to Democrats in recent cycles. It went against native son Al Gore in 2000; if Gore had won the state, he would have emerged the victor. Tennessee joins other Southern states like Kentucky that have not been competitive in recent memory, but in which Democrats find themselves surprisingly competitive.

• Virginia: (13) No Democratic presidential candidate has won Virginia since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, and it was the only Southern state that went Republican in 1976. Virginia is no longer as reliably Republican as it once was, as evidenced by Democrat Tim Kaine's victory in 2005 for the Governor's Mansion and Jim Webb's narrow victory in the 2006 Senate race against incumbent Republican George Allen. Additionally, Northern Virginia, the fastest-growing region in the state, tends to lean Democratic. On September 13, 2007, former Virginia governor and Democrat Mark Warner informally announced he will run for the Senate in 2008 for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner. This notion is supported by a September 2007 Rasmussen Reports poll in which Mark Warner leads former Republican governor Jim Gilmore 54% to 34% and Republican Congressman Thomas M. Davis 57% to 30%.

• West Virginia: (5) Although registered Democrats in the state outnumber registered Republicans, Bush narrowly won the state in both the 2000 and 2004 elections with 52% and 56% of the vote respectively. President Clinton won the state in both 1992 and 1996.

• Wisconsin: (10) Among the closest states in the nation, Wisconsin very narrowly went to Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. These two results were much closer than the results in prior elections, so it could be possible Wisconsin is trending Republican in presidential elections, though John Kerry won by a slightly larger margin than Gore in 2000.

The potential battleground states listed above control a total of 207 electoral votes. Of the states that are not expected to be competitive, 148 electoral votes (Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming) have been expected to go to the Republican party, while 183 (California, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington) are expected to go to the Democrats. Any of these may become competitive as the election progresses.

Election results

• Results of the 2008 Republican presidential primaries
• Results of the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries

See also

Template:Wikinewshas

• History of the United States (since 1988)
• Democratic Presidential Debates, 2008
• Republican Presidential Debates, 2008
• United States general elections, 2008
• Opinion polling by state for the United States presidential election, 2008
• Swing state

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External links

• Template:Dmoz
• Wikia:campaigns:United States presidential election, 2008 and Wikia:campaigns:Category:2008 US Presidential candidates
• Project Vote Smart - 2008 Presidential Candidates
• Presidential Candidate Foreign Policy Issue Trackers from Council on Foreign Relations
• The Pew Forum - Religion & Politics 2008
• Who Is Who in the 2008 Elections
• Candidate Videos at Election.tv
• Glance on the USA : comments, biography of all the candidates, polls...
• List of all presidential candidates for the 2008 Election
• Lindsay politics 101-Blog coverage of all elections

Campaign contributions

• FEC - Presidential Campaign Finance
• OpenSecrets.org - Race for the White House
• Campaign Contributions to Presidential Candidates in the 2008 Election

News media

• US Elections 2008 from Guardian Unlimited
• Campaign '08 from The Los Angeles Times
• Presidential Election of 2008 from The New York Times
• Vote 2008 from The Online NewsHour
• Presidential Candidates from The Wall Street Journal
• The Presidential Field from The Washington Post
• BBC News US Elections 2008 from BBC News

• Misplaced Pages articles in need of updating from September 2008
• Misplaced Pages articles in need of updating from November 2008
• Articles with specifically marked weasel-worded phrases from January 2008
• United States presidential election, 2008