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{{Short description|Measure of armed conflicts}}
In ]s, the '''civilian casualty ratio''' (also '''civilian death ratio''', '''civilian-combatant ratio''', etc.) is the ] of ] to ] casualties, or total casualties. The measurement can apply either to casualties inflicted by a particular ], or to casualties in the conflict as a whole.


In ]s, the '''civilian casualty ratio''' (also '''civilian death ratio''', '''civilian-combatant ratio''', etc.) is the ] of ] to ] ], or total casualties. The measurement can apply either to casualties inflicted by or to a particular ], casualties inflicted in one aspect or arena of a conflict or to casualties in the conflict as a whole. Casualties usually refer to both dead and injured. In some calculations, deaths resulting from ] and ] are included.
According to a 2001 study by the ], the civilian-to-soldier death ratio in wars fought since the mid-20th century has been 10:1, meaning ten civilian deaths for every soldier death.<ref>Sabrina Tavernise and Andrew W. Lehren,

, New York Times 22-10-2010</ref> ] writes that the civilian to combatant casualty ratio was 8:1 in wars in the 1990s, meaning eight civilian deaths for every combatant death. This constitutes a reversal of the ratio at the turn of the 20th century, which stood at 1:8, meaning only one civilian death for every eight combatant deaths.<ref>Mary Kaldor, ''New and Old Wars'', Stanford University Press 1998, </ref>
Starting in the 1980s, it has often been claimed that 90 percent of the victims of modern wars are ],<ref>Kahnert, M., D. Pitt, et al., Eds. (1983). ''Children and War: Proceedings of Symposium at Siuntio Baths, Finland, 1983.'' Geneva and Helsinki, Geneva International Peace Research Institute, IPB and Peace Union of Finland, p. 5, which states: "Of the human victims in the First World War only 5% were civilians, in the Second World War already 50%, in Vietnam War between 50 - 90 % and according to some information in Lebanon 97%. It has been appraised that in a conventional war in Europe up to 99% of the victims would be civilians."</ref><ref>], </ref><ref>], </ref><ref>], Moises Samam, Gino Strada. ''Just war'', Charta, 2005, p. 38.</ref> repeated in academic publications as recently as 2014.<ref>{{Cite journal | year= 2014 | last1= James| first1= Paul | author-link1= Paul James (academic) | title= Faces of Globalization and the Borders of States: From Asylum Seekers to Citizens | url= https://www.academia.edu/7773440 | journal= Citizenship Studies | volume= 18 | issue= 2 | page=219| doi= 10.1080/13621025.2014.886440| s2cid= 144816686}}</ref> These claims, though widely believed and correct regarding some wars, do not hold up as a generalization across the majority of wars, particularly in the case of wars such as those in ] and in ] which are central to the claims.<ref>], Print edition ISSN 0039-6338. Online ISSN 1468-2699.</ref> Some of the citations can be traced back to a 1991 monograph from ]<ref>Ahlstrom, C. and K.-A. Nordquist (1991). ''Casualties of conflict: report for the world campaign for the protection of victims of war.'' Uppsala, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, ].</ref> which includes ] and ] as casualties. Other authors cite ]'s 1991 monograph in which the author states "In the decade of the 1980s, the proportion of civilian deaths jumped to 74 percent of the total and in 1990 it appears to have been close to 90 percent."<ref>Sivard, R. L. (1991). ''World Military and Social Expenditures 1991.'' Washington DC, World Priorities, Inc. Vol. 14, pp 22-25.</ref>

A wide-ranging study of civilian war deaths from 1700 to 1987 by ] states:

<blockquote>On the average, half of the deaths caused by war happened to civilians, only some of whom were killed by famine associated with war...The civilian percentage share of war-related deaths remained at about 50% from century to century. (p. 97)<ref> Also at </ref></blockquote>


==Mexican Revolution (1910–20)== ==Mexican Revolution (1910–20)==
Although it's estimated at least 1 million people died in the ], most died from disease and hunger as an indirect result of the war. Combat deaths are generally agreed to have totaled about 250,000. According to Eckhardt, these included 125,000 civilian deaths and 125,000 military deaths, creating a civilian-combatant death ratio of 1:1 among combat deaths.<ref>. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.</ref><ref>. Hist.umn.edu. Retrieved on 2010-11-28.</ref> Although it is estimated that over 1 million people died in the ], most died from disease and hunger as an indirect result of the war. Combat deaths are generally agreed to have totaled about 250,000. According to Eckhardt, these included 125,000 civilian deaths and 125,000 combatant deaths, creating a civilian-combatant death ratio of 1:1 among combat deaths.<ref>. Users.erols.com. Retrieved 2010-11-28.</ref><ref>. Hist.umn.edu. Retrieved 2010-11-28.</ref>


==World War I== ==World War I==
{{seealso|World War I casualties}} {{see also|World War I casualties}}
Some 9 to 10 million combatants are estimated to have died during ], along with an estimated 6.6 million civilians. The civilian casualty rate in ] is therefore approximately 2:3 or 40%. Most of the civilian fatalities were due to famine or ] rather than military action. The relatively low rate of civilian casualties in this war is due to the fact that the front lines on the main battlefront, the ], were static for most of the war, so that civilians were able to avoid the combat zones. Casualties for the Western allies, consequently, were relatively slight. Germany, on the other hand, suffered 750,000 civilian dead during and after the war due to famine caused by the ]. ] and ] suffered civilian casualties in the millions—the latter including at least 500,000 ] killed in the ].<ref name=neiberg_pp68-70/> Some 7 million combatants on both sides are estimated to have died during ], along with an estimated 10 million non-combatants, including 6.6 million civilians.{{citation needed|date=February 2014}} The civilian casualty ratio in this estimate would be about 59%. Boris Urlanis notes a lack of data on civilian losses in the ], but estimates 8.6 million military killed and dead and 6 million civilians killed and dead in the other warring countries.<ref>Urlanis, Boris, ''War and Population'', pp. 209 and 268, rounded off.</ref> The civilian casualty ratio in this estimate would be about 42%. Most of the civilian fatalities were due to famine, ], or ] rather than combat action. The relatively low ratio of civilian casualties in this war is due to the fact that the front lines on the main battlefront, the ], were static for most of the war, so that civilians were able to avoid the combat zones.

Germany suffered 300-750,000 civilian dead during and after the war due to famine caused by the ]. ] and ] suffered civilian casualties in the millions in the ] and invasion of ] respectively.<ref name=neiberg_pp68-70/> ] suffered up to 1.5 million civilians dead in the ].<ref>Urlanis, Boris, ''War and Population'', p. 278</ref>


==World War II== ==World War II==
{{seealso|World War II casualties}} {{see also|World War II casualties}}
According to most sources, World War II was the most lethal war in world history, with some 70 million killed in six years. The civilian to combatant fatality rate in ] lies somewhere between 3:2 and 2:1, or from 60% to 67%.<ref name=sadowski_p134>Sadowski, p. 134. See the ] article for a detailed breakdown of casualties.</ref> The high rate of civilian casualties in this war was due in part to the increasing lethality of strategic weapons, used to target enemy industrial or population centres, and famines caused by economic disruption. A substantial number of civilians in this war were also deliberately killed by the ] as a result of racial policies (for example, the ]) or ethnic cleansing campaigns.<ref name=neiberg_pp68-70>Neiberg, Michael S. (2002): ''Warfare in World History'', , Routledge, ISBN 978-0415229548.</ref> According to most sources, ] was the most lethal war in world history, with some 70 million killed in six years. According to some, the civilian to combatant fatality ratio in World War II lies somewhere between 3:2 and 2:1, or from 60% to 67%.<ref name=sadowski_p134>Sadowski, p. 134. See the ] article for a detailed breakdown of casualties.</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=WWII: share of civilian and military deaths by country 1939-1945 |url=https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351474/second-world-war-civilian-military-fatalities-per-country/ |access-date=2024-09-24 |website=Statista |language=en}}</ref> According to others, the ratio is at least 3:1 and potentially higher.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Research Starters: Worldwide Deaths in World War II |url=https://www.nationalww2museum.org/students-teachers/student-resources/research-starters/research-starters-worldwide-deaths-world-war |access-date=2024-09-24 |website=The National WWII Museum {{!}} New Orleans |language=en}}</ref> The high ratio of civilian casualties in this war was due in part to the increasing effectiveness and lethality of strategic weapons which were used to target enemy industrial or population centers, and ] caused by economic disruption. An estimated 2.1–3 million Indians died in the ] in ] during World War II. A substantial number of civilians in this war were also deliberately killed by ] as a result of genocide such as the ] or other ] campaigns.<ref name=neiberg_pp68-70>] (2002): ''Warfare in World History'', , Routledge, {{ISBN|978-0-415-22954-8}}.</ref>


==Korean War== ==Korean War==
The median total estimated Korean civilian deaths in the ] is 1,547,000. The median total estimated Korean military deaths is 429,827. The civilian-combatant death ratio among Korean casualties is 36:10. The median total estimated Korean civilian deaths in the ] is 2,730,000. The total estimated North Korean combatant deaths is 213,000 and the estimated Chinese combatant deaths is over 400,000. In addition to this the Republic of Korea combatant deaths is around 134,000 dead and the combatant deaths for the ] side is around 49,000 dead and missing (40,000 dead, 9,000 missing). The estimated total Korean war military dead is around 793,000 deaths. The civilian-combatant death ratio in the war is approximately 3:1 or 75%. One source estimates that 20% of the total population of North Korea perished in the war.<ref name=deane_p149>Deane, p. 149.</ref>
<ref>. Users.erols.com. Retrieved on 2010-11-29.</ref> One source estimates that 20% of the total population of North Korea perished in the war.<ref name=deane_p149>Deane, p. 149.</ref>


==Vietnam War== ==Vietnam War==
The Vietnamese government has estimated the number of Vietnamese civilians killed in the war at two million, and the number of ] and ] killed at 1.1 million&nbsp;— estimates which approximate those of a number of other sources.<ref name=shenon>, Philip Shenon, clipping from the Vietnam Center and Archive website.</ref> This would give a civilian-combatant fatality rate of approximately 2:1, or about 65%. These figures do not include civilians killed in ] and ]. The Vietnamese government has estimated the number of Vietnamese civilians killed in the ] at two million, and the number of ] and ] killed at 1.1 million—estimates which approximate those of a number of other sources.<ref name=shenon>{{Dead link|date=July 2020 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}, Philip Shenon, clipping from the Vietnam Center and Archive website.</ref> This would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of approximately 2:1, or 67%. These figures do not include civilians killed in ] and ]. However, the lowest estimate of 411,000<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/SOD.TAB6.1A.GIF |title=Table 6.1A - Vietnam Democide Estimates Sources and Calculations |publisher=University of Hawaii |access-date=2014-01-05}}</ref> civilians killed during the war (including civilians killed in ] and ]) would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of approximately 1:3, or 25%. Using the lowest estimate of Vietnamese military deaths, 400,000, the ratio is about 1:1.


==1982 Lebanon War== ==1982 Lebanon War==
In 1982, ] mounted a ] to the ] in ] after the PLO began shelling northern Israel.<ref name=schiff>Schiff & Yaari (1984), pp. 35–36</ref>. The war culminated in a seven-week long Israeli naval, air and artillery bombardment of Lebanon's capital, ], where the PLO had retreated. The bombardment eventually came to an end with an internationally brokered settlement in which the PLO forces were given safe passage to evacuate the country.<ref name=hartley_pp91-92>Hartley ''et all'', pp. 91-92.</ref><ref name=mattar_p47/> In 1982, ] with the stated aim of driving the ] away from its northern borders.<ref name=" Sorenson">{{cite book|last= Sorenson|first=David S. |title=Global Security Watch--Lebanon: A Reference Handbook|year=2010|publisher=]|isbn=978-0-313-36578-2|pages=22–23}}</ref> The war culminated in a seven-week-long Israeli naval, air and artillery bombardment of Lebanon's capital, ], where the PLO had retreated. The bombardment eventually came to an end with an internationally brokered settlement in which the PLO forces were given safe passage to evacuate the country.<ref name=hartley_pp91-92>Hartley ''et al.'', pp. 91-92.</ref>


According to the ], by the end of the first week of the war alone, some 10,000 people, including 2,000 combatants, had been killed, and 16,000 wounded—a civilian-combatant fatality rate of 5:1.<ref name=layoun_p134>Layoun ''et al'', p. 134.</ref> Lebanese government sources later estimated that by the end of the siege of Beirut, a total of about 18,000 had been killed, an estimated 85% of whom were civilians.<ref name=hartley_p91>Hartley ''et al'', p. 91.</ref><ref name=mattar_p47>Mattar, p. 47.</ref> This would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of about 7:1. According to the ], by the end of the first week of the war alone, some 10,000 people, including 2,000 combatants, had been killed, and 16,000 wounded—a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of 4:1.<ref name=layoun_p134>Layoun ''et al'', p. 134.</ref> Lebanese government sources later estimated that by the end of the siege of Beirut, a total of about 18,000 had been killed, an estimated 85% of whom were civilians.<ref>Washington Post, November 16, 1984</ref><ref name="The 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon">{{cite journal|title=The 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon: the casualties |doi=10.1177/030639688302400404 |date=1983-04-01 |volume=24 |issue=4 |journal=Race & Class |pages=340–343|s2cid=220910633 }}</ref> This gives a civilian to military casualty ratio of about 6:1.

According to ] between 1,000 and 3,000 civilians were killed in the southern campaign.<ref name=Gabriel>Gabriel, Richard, A, ''Operation Peace for Galilee, The Israeli-PLO War in Lebanon'', New York: Hill & Wang. 1984, p. 164, 165, {{ISBN|0-8090-7454-0}}</ref> He states that an additional 4,000 to 5,000 civilians died from all actions of all sides during the siege of Beirut,<ref name=Gabriel/> and that some 2,000 Syrian soldiers were killed during the Lebanon campaign and a further 2,400 PLO guerillas were also killed.<ref name=Gabriel/> Of these, 1,000 PLO guerrillas were killed during the siege.<ref name=Gabriel/> According to Gabriel the ratio of civilian deaths to combatants during the siege was about 6 to 1 but this ratio includes civilian deaths from all actions of all sides.<ref name=Gabriel/>


==Chechen wars== ==Chechen wars==
{{see also|Casualties of the Second Chechen War}}
During the ], 4,000 separatist fighters and 40,000 civilians are estimated to have died, giving a civilian-combatant ratio of 10:1. The numbers for the ] are 3,000 fighters and 13,000 civilians, for a ratio of 43:10. The combined ratio for both wars is 76:10. Casualty numbers for the conflict are notoriously unreliable. The estimates of the civilian casualties during the First Chechen war range from 20,000 to 100,000, with remaining numbers being similarly unreliable. <ref>{{cite book | first = Christoph | last = Zürcher | title = The post-Soviet wars: rebellion, ethnic conflict, and nationhood in the Caucasus | page = 100 | url = http://books.google.com/books?id=C0DTtKEktdEC}} </ref> The tactics employed by Russian forces in both wars were heavily criticized by human rights groups, which accused them of indiscriminate bombing and shelling of civilian areas and other crimes.<ref name=hrw1996>, ] report, 1996.</ref><ref> ]</ref>
During the ], 4,000 separatist fighters and 40,000 civilians are estimated to have died, giving a civilian-combatant ratio of 10:1. The numbers for the ] are 3,000 fighters and 13,000 civilians, for a ratio of 4.3:1. The combined ratio for both wars is 7.6:1. Casualty numbers for the conflict are notoriously unreliable. The estimates of the civilian casualties during the First Chechen war range from 20,000 to 100,000, with remaining numbers being similarly unreliable.<ref>{{cite book | first = Christoph | last = Zürcher |author-link=Christoph Zuercher| title = The post-Soviet wars: rebellion, ethnic conflict, and nationhood in the Caucasus | page = 100 | url = https://books.google.com/books?id=C0DTtKEktdEC| isbn = 9780814797099 | date = November 2007 | publisher = NYU Press }}</ref> The tactics employed by Russian forces in both wars were heavily criticized by human rights groups, which accused them of indiscriminate bombing and shelling of civilian areas and other crimes.<ref name=hrw1996>, ] report, 1996.</ref><ref> {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071114184928/http://www.web.amnesty.org/web/ar2001.nsf/webeurcountries/RUSSIAN%2BFEDERATION?OpenDocument |date=November 14, 2007 }} ]</ref>


==NATO in Yugoslavia== ==NATO in Yugoslavia==
{{see also|Civilian casualties during Operation Allied Force}} {{see also|Civilian casualties during Operation Allied Force}}


In 1999, ] intervened in the ] with a bombing campaign against Yugoslav forces, who were alleged to be conducting a campaign of ]. The bombing lasted about 2½ months, until forcing the withdrawal of the Yugoslav army from Kosovo. In 1999, ] intervened in the ] with a bombing campaign against Yugoslav forces, who were conducting a campaign of ]. The bombing lasted about 2½ months, until forcing the withdrawal of the Yugoslav army from Kosovo.


Estimates for the number of casualties caused by the bombing vary widely depending on the source. NATO unofficially claimed a toll of 5,000 enemy combatants killed by the bombardment; the Yugoslav government, on the other hand, gave a figure of 638 of its security forces killed in Kosovo.<ref name=larson_p71>Larson, p. 71.</ref> Estimates for the civilian toll are similarly disparate. ] counted approximately 500 civilians killed by the bombing; the Yugoslav government estimated between 1,200 and 5,000.<ref name=larson_p65>Larson, p. 65.</ref> Estimates for the number of casualties caused by the bombing vary widely depending on the source. NATO unofficially claimed a toll of 5,000 enemy combatants killed by the bombardment; the Yugoslav government, on the other hand, gave a figure of 638 of its security forces killed in Kosovo.<ref name=larson_p71>Larson, p. 71.</ref> Estimates for the civilian toll are similarly disparate. ] counted approximately 500 civilians killed by the bombing; the Yugoslav government estimated between 1,200 and 5,000.<ref name=larson_p65>Larson, p. 65.</ref>


If the NATO figures are to be believed, NATO achieved a civilian to combatant kill ratio of about 1:10, on the Yugoslav government's figures, conversely, the ratio would be between 4:1 and 10:1. If the most conservative estimates from the sources cited above are used, the ratio was around 1:1. If the NATO figures are to be believed, the bombings achieved a civilian to combatant kill ratio of about 1:10, on the Yugoslav government's figures, conversely, the ratio would be between 4:1 and 10:1. If the most conservative estimates from the sources cited above are used, the ratio was around 1:1.


==Afghanistan War==
According to military historian and Israeli Ambassador to the United States ], for every ]n soldier killed by ] in 1999 (the period in which ] took place), four civilians died, a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 4:1. Oren cites this figure as evidence that "even the most moral army can make mistakes, especially in dense urban warfare".<ref>Michael Oren, , Boston Globe 24-09-2009</ref>
{{see also|Civilian casualties in the war in Afghanistan (2001–2021)}}
According to the ] at ], as of January 2015 roughly 92,000 people had been killed in the Afghanistan war, of which over 26,000 were civilians, for a civilian to combatant ratio of 1:2.5.<ref> {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130616010655/http://costsofwar.org/article/afghan-civilians |date=2013-06-16 }}</ref>


==Coalition forces in the Iraq War== ==Iraq War==
{{see also|Casualties of the Iraq War}} {{see also|Casualties of the Iraq War}}
According to a 2010 assessment by John Sloboda of ], a United Kingdom-based organization, American and Coalition forces had killed at least 22,668 combatants as well as 13,807 civilians in the ], indicating an essential civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 1:2.<ref name=katz>Yaakov Katz, , Jerusalem Post 29-10-2010</ref> It is not clear what percentage of civilians were killed in the initial (conventional war) invasion, as opposed to the percentage killed in the insurgency since. According to a 2010 assessment by John Sloboda of ], a United Kingdom-based organization, American and Coalition forces (including Iraqi government forces) had killed at least 28,736 combatants as well as 13,807 civilians in the ], indicating a civilian to combatant casualty ratio inflicted by coalition forces of 1:2.<ref name=katz>{{cite news |first=Yaakov |last=Katz |url=http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?ID=193196&R=R1 |title=Analysis: Lies, leaks, death tolls & statistics |newspaper=The Jerusalem Post |date=2010-10-29}}</ref> However, overall, figures by the ] from 20 March 2003 to 14 March 2013 indicate that of 174,000 casualties only 39,900 were combatants, resulting in a civilian casualty rate of 77%. Most civilians were killed by anti-government insurgents and unidentified third parties.<ref>{{cite web|title=The War in Iraq: 10 years and counting|url=https://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/numbers/ten-years/|website=Iraq Body Count|access-date=13 July 2014}}</ref>


==US drone strikes in Pakistan== ==US drone strikes in Pakistan==
{{main|Drone attacks in Pakistan#Civilian casualties}}
The civilian casualty rate for ] is notoriously difficult to quantify. The U.S. itself puts the number of civilians killed from drone strikes in the last two years at no more than 20 to 30, a total that is far too low according to a spokesman for the ] CIVIC.<ref name=mcclatchy_10dec2010>, Saeed Shah, mcclatchy.com, 2010-12-10.</ref> At the other extreme, Daniel L. Byman of the ] suggests that drone strikes may kill "10 or so civilians" for every militant killed, which would represent a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 10:1. Byman argues that civilian killings constitute a humanitarian tragedy and create dangerous political problems, including damage to the legitimacy of the Pakistani government and alienation of the Pakistani populace from America.<ref>Daniel L. Byman, , Brookings 14-07-2009</ref> A study by the New America Foundation in February estimated that between 830 and 1,210 civilians in total have been killed by drone strikes since 2004, a civilian fatality rate of about 30%, or 1:2.<ref name=dawn_9may2010>, Cyril Almeida, news.dawn.com, 2010-05-09.</ref>
The civilian casualty ratio for ] conducted during 2004 and 2018 as part of the ] is notoriously difficult to quantify. In 2010, the U.S. itself put the number of civilians killed from drone strikes in the last two years at no more than 20 to 30, a total that is far too low according to a spokesman for the ] ].<ref name=mcclatchy_10dec2010> {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101212135429/http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/12/10/105104/pakistanis-protest-civilian-deaths.html |date=2010-12-12 }}, Saeed Shah, mcclatchy.com, 2010-12-10.</ref> At the other extreme, Daniel L. Byman of the ] suggested in 2009 that drone strikes may kill "10 or so civilians" for every militant killed, which would represent a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 10:1. Byman argues that civilian killings constitute a humanitarian tragedy and create dangerous political problems, including damage to the legitimacy of the Pakistani government and alienation of the Pakistani populace from America.<ref>Daniel L. Byman, , Brookings 14-07-2009</ref> An ongoing study by the ] finds non-militant casualty rates started high but declined steeply over time, from about 60% (3 out of 5) in 2004–2007 to less than 2% (1 out of 50) in 2012. In 2011, the study put the overall non-militant casualty rate since 2004 at 15–16%, or a 1:5 ratio, out of a total of between 1,908 and 3,225 people killed in Pakistan by drone strikes since 2004.<ref> {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110830213657/http://counterterrorism.newamerica.net/drones |date=August 30, 2011 }}, New America Foundation. Retrieved 2012-10-24.</ref>


==Israel in the Gaza War== ==War against the Islamic state==
The global coalition's ], from 2014, had led to as many as 50,000 ISIL combatant casualties by the end of 2016.<ref>{{#invoke:cite web||url=http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/09/politics/isis-dead-us-military/|title=Military: 50,000 ISIS fighters killed|publisher=]|date=9 December 2016}}</ref> ] calculated that 8,200–13,275 civilians were killed in Coalition airstrikes, mainly up to the end of 2017, with especially high casualty rates during the ].<ref>{{cite web | url=https://airwars.org/conflict/coalition-in-iraq-and-syria/ | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240511004312/https://airwars.org/conflict/coalition-in-iraq-and-syria/ | archive-date=2024-05-11 | title=US-led Coalition in Iraq & Syria }}</ref> An ] investigation found that in the Battle of Mosul, of the >9,000 fatalities, between 42% and 60% were civilians.<ref name="b789">{{cite web | last1=Hinnant | first1=Lori | last2=Michael | first2=Maggie | last3=Abdul-Zahra | first3=Qassim | last4=George | first4=Susannah | title=Mosul is a graveyard: Final IS battle kills 9,000 civilians | website=AP News | date=21 December 2017 | url=https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-only-on-ap-islamic-state-group-bbea7094fb954838a2fdc11278d65460 | access-date=14 May 2024}}</ref>
{{see also|Casualties of the Gaza War}}
Several analysts have attempted to calculate the ]'s civilian casualty ratio in Operation Cast Lead during the ]. All have noted that the ratio differs significantly depending on which figures are used regarding the total number of casualties and their identity. The main sets of figures are those published by the IDF, essentially corroborated by ], the opposing belligerent in the conflict, on the one hand; and those published by ] on the other hand.


==Israeli–Palestinian conflict==
Journalist Yaakov Katz states in '']'' that the ratio is 1:3 according to the Israeli figures and 60% civilians (3:2) according to B'Tselem's figures. Katz attributes the IDF's low ratio in the Gaza War and in the year preceding it to Israel's investment in special weapons systems, including small ]s that minimize collateral damage, and to an upscaled Israeli effort to warn civilians to flee areas and to divert missiles at the last moment if civilians entered a planned strike zone. Katz notes that over 81 percent of the 5,000 missiles the IDF dropped in the Gaza Strip during the operation were smart bombs, a percentage which he states is unprecedented in modern warfare.<ref name=katz/>
Estimates of civilian casualties from the ] differ.


=== 2000–2007 ===
Journalist and commentator Evelyn Gordon writes in '']'' that the civilian casualty ratio in Operation Cast Lead was 39 percent (2:3) according to Israeli figures; 56 or 74 percent according to B'Tselem's figures, depending on whether 248 Hamas policemen are considered combatants or civilians; and 65 or 83 percent according to the figures of the ]. Gordon notes that all of these ratios are lower than the normal civilian-to-combatant wartime fatality ratio as given by the Red Cross, and states that the comparison shows that the IDF was unusually successful at minimizing civilian casualty rates. She concludes by charging that terrorists fight from among civilians because they know that the inevitable civilian casualties will result in opprobrium for their victims who dare to fight back, and that this norm will not change as long as this modus operandi remains profitable.<ref>Evelyn Gordon, , Commentary 25-10-2010</ref> Hamas officials eventually said around 700 of it's people were killed, almost confirming the IDFs estimates. <ref>http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/hamas-admits-600-700-of-its-men-were-killed-in-cast-lead-1.323776</ref>
The ] (UNOCHA) estimated 4,228 Palestinians and 1,024 Israelis were killed between 2000 and 2007.<ref name="Ocha report">{{Cite web |date=2007-08-31 |title=Israeli-Palestinian Fatalities Since 2000 - Key Trends |url=http://www.ochaopt.org/content/israeli-palestinian-fatalities-2000-key-trends-august-2007 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210801005739/https://www.ochaopt.org/content/israeli-palestinian-fatalities-2000-key-trends-august-2007 |archive-date=2021-08-01 |access-date=2023-10-19 |website=United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs |language=en}}</ref> It quoted ] estimating that of the Israelis killed by Palestinians, 31% were members of the IDF, while 69% were civilians. For the Palestinians killed by Israelis, 41% were combatants while 59% were civilians.<ref name="Ocha report" />
{| class="wikitable"
|+B'Tselem estimate of % civilians killed by both sides 2000–2007<ref name="Ocha report" />
!
!Total
!Civilians
!Civilian to combatant ratio
|-
|Israelis killed by Palestinians
|1,204
|69%
|'''2.2 : 1'''
|-
|Palestinians killed by Israelis
|4,228
|59%
|'''1.4 : 1'''
|}
During this period various other claims were made regarding Palestinian civilian to combatants killed by Israel. ] wrote that the civilian to combatant casualty ratio of Israeli airstrikes (not including ground operations) was 1:1 in 2003, but by 2007 it had improved to 1:30.<ref name="Harel_pinpoint">. Amos Harel, ''Haaretz'', 30 December 2007</ref> Meanwhile, the Israeli intelligence agency ] claimed that of the Palestinians killed between 2006–2007 period in the Gaza Strip (not including the West Bank), only 20% were civilians.<ref name="HzBR">{{cite news |author=Barak Ravid |date=14 January 2008 |title=Haaretz probe: Shin Bet count of Gaza civilian deaths is too low |work=Haaretz}}</ref> The Ha'aretz criticized the Shin Bet as underestimating the civilian casualties.<ref name="HzBR" /> B'Tselem data of Palestinians killed by Israel in the Gaza Strip (not including the West Bank) Jan 1, 2006 to Dec 31, 2007, shows 821 killed, of which 405 were combatants (49%), 346 non-combatants (42%) and the rest with unknown status.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Fatalities: Before Cast Lead |url=https://statistics.btselem.org/en/stats/before-cast-lead/by-date-of-incident?regionSensor=%5B%22b40f813%22%5D&dateSensor=%221136102400000%2C1199163599000%22&section=participation&tab=charts |website=B'Tselem}}</ref>

===Israel–Gaza conflict===
In operations in Gaza since 2008, the ratio again dropped, as low as 3:1 during the ].<ref name="OCHA2015" />

Yagil Levy, an Israeli sociologist writing in '']'' at the end of 2023, analysed civilian casualty rates in five Israeli aerial operations: ] (~1 week in November 2012); ] (~10 days in May 2021); ] (3 days, August 2022); ] (5 days in May 2023); and the first two months of the ], based on reports of the ]. He calculated civilian fatality rates for these as follows: 40%, 40%, 42%, 33% and 61%.<ref name="h080">{{cite web | last=Levy | first=Yagil | title=The Israeli Army Has Dropped the Restraint in Gaza, and the Data Shows Unprecedented Killing | website=Haaretz.com | date=9 December 2023 | url=https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-12-09/ty-article-magazine/.highlight/the-israeli-army-has-dropped-the-restraint-in-gaza-and-data-shows-unprecedented-killing/0000018c-4cca-db23-ad9f-6cdae8ad0000 | archive-url=https://archive.today/20240229162951/https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-12-09/ty-article-magazine/.highlight/the-israeli-army-has-dropped-the-restraint-in-gaza-and-data-shows-unprecedented-killing/0000018c-4cca-db23-ad9f-6cdae8ad0000#selection-953.354-953.424 | archive-date=29 February 2024 | url-status=live | access-date=14 May 2024}}</ref>

====2008–09 Gaza War====
{{see also|Casualties of the Gaza War (2008–2009)}}

'''Palestinian casualties'''
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Source !! Total killed !! Civilians !! Militants !! Unidentified !! Civilian Casualty Ratio !! Last updated !! Notes
|-
| IDF<ref>" {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110520054835/http://dover.idf.il/IDF/English/News/today/09/03/2602.htm |date=2011-05-20 }}," IDF Research Department</ref> || 1,171 || 300 || 709 || 162 || 26% <!--WP:CALC--> || ||
|-
| B'Tselem<ref>, ]</ref><ref name=btselem>, ]</ref> || 1,391 || 759 || 350 || 0|| 68%<!--WP:CALC--> || || Also 248 police officers reportedly killed inside police stations
|-
| ]<ref name=btselem /> || || || || || 83% || ||
|}

The main sets of figures are those published by the IDF, essentially corroborated by ], the opposing belligerent in the conflict, on the one hand; and those published by ] on the other hand.<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/hamas-admits-600-700-of-its-men-were-killed-in-cast-lead-1.323776 |title=Hamas admits 600-700 of its men were killed in Cast Lead Israel News |journal=Haaretz |date=2010-11-09 |access-date=2014-01-05}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101101/wl_mideast_afp/israelpalestiniansconflictgazahamastoll |title=Hamas says 300 fighters killed in Gaza war |date=2010-11-02 |publisher=Yahoo News |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101106061603/http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101101/wl_mideast_afp/israelpalestiniansconflictgazahamastoll |archive-date=2010-11-06}}</ref>

The ] into the conflict concluded that while there were many individual Gaza policemen who were members of militant groups, the Gaza police forces were a civilian police force and "cannot be said to have been taking a direct part in hostilities and thus did not lose their civilian immunity from direct attack as civilians".<ref name=UNFFMGCReport_pdf>{{cite news|url=http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2009/09/15/UNFFMGCReport.pdf|title=Report of the United Nations Fact Finding Mission on the Gaza Conflict|publisher=United Nations Human Rights Council|access-date=September 15, 2009 |location=London}}</ref>

'''Israeli casualties'''

13 Israelis were killed during the conflict, including 10 IDF soldiers (4 killed by ]),<ref name=btselem /> giving a civilian casualty ratio for Palestinian forces of 24% or 3:10.

====Israel in the 2014 Gaza war====
{{see also|List of Israeli strikes and Palestinian casualties in the 2014 Israel–Gaza conflict}}
Reports of casualties in the ] have been made available by a variety of sources. Most media accounts have used figures provided by the government in Gaza or non-governmental organizations.<ref>{{cite news|last=Farhi|first=Paul|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/reporters-grapple-with-politics-erratic-sources-in-reporting-israeligaza-death-toll/2014/08/04/c02ab282-1c10-11e4-ae54-0cfe1f974f8a_story.html|title=Reporters grapple with politics, erratic sources in reporting Israeli/Gaza death toll|newspaper=The Washington Post|date=4 August 2014|access-date=12 August 2014}}</ref> Differing methodologies have resulted in varied reports of both the overall death toll and the civilian casualty ratio.<ref name=BBCdisputeCasualties>{{Cite news|last=Reuben|first=Anthony|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28688179|title=Caution needed with Gaza casualty figures|journal=BBC News|date=11 August 2014|access-date=12 August 2014}}</ref>

According to the main estimates between 2,125<ref name="MFA-report-fatalities" /> and 2,310<ref name="Ma'an2015Jan"> {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150111023729/http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=751290 |date=2015-01-11 }} ] 3 January 2015.</ref> Gazans were killed and between 10,626<ref name="Ma'an2015Jan" /> and 10,895<ref name="PCHR">{{cite web|url=http://www.pchrgaza.org/portal/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10491:statistics-victims-of-the-israeli-offensive-on-gaza-since-08-july-2014&catid=145:in-focus|title=Statistics: Victims of the Israeli Offensive on Gaza since 8 July 2014|publisher=Pchrgaza.org|access-date=27 August 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150626164255/http://www.pchrgaza.org/portal/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10491:statistics-victims-of-the-israeli-offensive-on-gaza-since-08-july-2014&catid=145:in-focus|archive-date=26 June 2015|url-status=dead}}</ref> were wounded (including 3,374 children, of whom over 1,000 were left permanently disabled<ref> ], Ramallah, 16 April 2015.</ref>{{Better source needed|neutral source required =|date=May 2016}}). 66 Israeli soldiers, 5 Israeli civilians (including one child)<ref>, BBC</ref> and one Thai civilian were killed<ref name="OCHA" /> and 469 IDF soldiers and 261 Israeli civilians were injured.<ref name="OPE-Israeli-wounded">{{cite news|last=Hartman |first=Ben|title=50 days of Israel's Gaza operation, Protective Edge – by the numbers|url=http://www.jpost.com/Operation-Protective-Edge/50-days-of-Israels-Gaza-operation-Protective-Edge-by-the-numbers-372574|date=28 August 2014|work=Jerusalem Post}}</ref> The Gaza Health Ministry, UN and some human rights groups reported that 69–75% of the Palestinian casualties were civilians;<ref name="OCHA">{{cite web |url=http://www.ochaopt.org/documents/ocha_opt_sitrep_04_09_2014.pdf |title=Occupied Palestinian Territory: Gaza Emergency |date=4 September 2014 |access-date=4 September 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140913014525/http://www.ochaopt.org/documents/ocha_opt_sitrep_04_09_2014.pdf |archive-date=13 September 2014 |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref name="jihad121">{{cite web|url=http://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic-jihad-121-of-our-fighters-killed-in-gaza/|title=Islamic Jihad: 121 of our fighters killed in Gaza|work=The Times of Israel|access-date=30 September 2014}}</ref><ref name=PCHR /> Israeli officials estimated that around 50% of those killed were civilians.,<ref name="yahooDisputeCasulaties">{{cite news|last1=Laub|first1=Karin|last2=AlHou|first2=Yousur|title=In Gaza, dispute over civilian vs combatant deaths|url=https://news.yahoo.com/gaza-dispute-over-civilian-vs-combatant-deaths-181755421.html|access-date=29 August 2014|publisher=Yahoo News|agency=Associated Press|date=8 August 2014}}</ref> giving Israeli forces a ratio between 1:1 and 3:1 during the conflict.

In March 2015, OCHA reported that 2,220 Palestinians had been killed in the conflict, of whom 1,492 were civilians (551 children and 299 women), 605 militants and 123 of unknown status, giving Israeli forces a ratio of 3:1.<ref name="OCHA2015"> ] March 2015.</ref>

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Source !! Total killed !! Civilians !! Militants !! Unidentified !! Percent civilians !! Last updated !! Notes
|-
| ] ] || 2,310<ref name="Ma'an2015Jan" /> || ≈1,617<!--WP:CALC--> || ≈693<!--WP:CALC--> || — || 70%<ref name="jihad121" /><ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/2014/12/14/Hamas-flies-drone-over-Gaza-during-anniversary-parade-.html|title=Hamas flexes muscles with Gaza drone flight|date=14 December 2014|publisher=Al Arabiya}}</ref> || 3 January 2015<ref name="Ma'an2015Jan" /> || Defines as a civilian anyone who is not claimed by an armed group as a member.
|-
| ] || 2,251<ref name=HRC_REPORT>{{cite web|url=http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/CoIGaza/A_HRC_CRP_4.doc|title=Report of the detailed findings of the Commission of Inquiry on the 2014 Gaza Conflict}}</ref> || 1,462 || 789<!--WP:CALC--> || — || 65% <!--WP:CALC--> || 22 June 2015 || Total killed referenced information from Hamas GHM.<ref>P.149: Palestinian Ministry of Health, quoted in A/HRC/28/80/Add.1, para. 24.</ref> Cross-referenced information from GHM with other sources for civilian percentage<ref name=HRC_REPORT /><!-- point 16 in the report -->
|-
| ] || 2,125<ref name="MFA-report-fatalities"> from report , ], 14 June 2015</ref> || 761<ref name="MFA-report-fatalities" /> || 936<ref name="MFA-report-fatalities" /> || 428<ref name="MFA-report-fatalities" /> || 36% of the total<br />45% of identified<ref name="MFA-report-fatalities" /> || 14 June 2015<ref name="MFA-report-fatalities" /> || Uses its own intelligence reports as well as Palestinian sources and media reports to determine combatant deaths.<ref name="MFA-report-fatalities" /><ref name="yahooDisputeCasulaties" />
|}

====2023 Israel–Hamas war====
{{Main|Casualties of the Israel–Hamas war}}
On October 7, 2023, ] which killed 1,140 Israelis, of which 695 were Israeli civilians, as well as 373 soldiers from various military positions and 71 foreign civilians,<ref>{{cite news |title=Israel social security data reveals true picture of Oct 7 deaths |date=15 December 2023 |url=https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231215-israel-social-security-data-reveals-true-picture-of-oct-7-deaths |work=]}}
</ref> a ratio of 2:1 between civilians and militant forces. During the invasion of the Gaza Strip, the IDF reported around 300 deaths of soldiers, while the Hamas al Qassam Brigade estimated the number around 4,000 to 5,000 deaths of Israeli soldiers,<ref>https://www.alqassam.ps/ {{Bare URL inline|date=August 2024}}</ref> Following the attack, Israel started extensive aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip followed by a large-scale ground invasion beginning on the 27th.

As of September 2024, more than 41,000 people killed by Israel in Gaza according to the Gaza Ministry of Health, since October 7, 2023, in addition to an estimated 10,000 bodies missing under the rubble.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/15/israel-kills-more-than-40000-palestinians-in-gaza-16456-of-them-children | title=Israel kills more than 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza, 16,456 of them children }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-09-23 |title=United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - occupied Palestinian territory {{!}} Humanitarian Situation Update #221 {{!}} Gaza Strip |url=https://www.ochaopt.org/content/humanitarian-situation-update-221-gaza-strip |access-date=2024-09-29 |website=United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - occupied Palestinian territory |language=en}}</ref> Among these numbers, 56% are estimated to be women and children.<ref>{{Cite web |last1=Farge |first1=Emma |last2=Al-Mughrabi |first2=Nidal |date=October 1, 2024 |title=Gaza death toll: how many Palestinians has Israel's campaign killed? |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-death-toll-how-many-palestinians-has-israels-campaign-killed-2024-07-25/ |access-date=October 9, 2024 |website=Reuters}}</ref> An investigation by the ] into a subset of 8,119 verified fatalities found around 70% of them to be women and children, with 5-9 year olds the most heavily represented group.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn5wel11pgdo|title=Nearly 70% of Gaza war dead verified by UN are women and children|author = Mallory Moench|date=8 November 2024|work=BBC News}}</ref>

According to the ], over 17,000 Palestinian militants were killed out of about 41,000 total people killed as of September 2024, which would suggest a civilian to combatant ratio of about 1.4:1.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Magid |first=Jacob |date= |title=Netanyahu lashes foreign press for ‘false’ reporting regarding Gaza humanitarian situation |url=https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-lashes-foreign-press-for-false-reporting-regarding-gaza-humanitarian-situation/ |access-date=2024-12-02 |website=www.timesofisrael.com |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=October 4, 2024 |title=Israel and Hamas Conflict In Brief: Overview, U.S. Policy, and Options for Congress |url=https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47828 |access-date=December 2, 2024 |website=Congressional Research Initiative}}</ref> Some sources have doubted the Israeli official reports. In March 2024, Haaretz interviewed several standing army commanders and reserve commanders who cast doubt on Israel's official figures of how many terrorists it had killed.<ref name="haaretz.com">https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-03-31/ty-article-magazine/.premium/israel-created-kill-zones-in-gaza-anyone-who-crosses-into-them-is-shot/0000018e-946c-d4de-afee-f46da9ee0000</ref> It is possible that some of those included in the combatant killed count were "Palestinians who never held a gun in their lives".<ref name="haaretz.com"/> Some observers believe Israel treats all adult male casualties as militants.<ref>Al Taher, Nada (March 26, 2024). "Israel failed to prove that the remaining 30 percent, i.e. adult males, were active Hamas combatants – a necessary condition for them to be lawfully targeted," the report read. Israel assigned all adult men "active fighter status by default" in December last year when it said it had killed more than 7,000 "terrorists", although men comprised less than 5,000 of the casualties at the time.</ref> Other observers argue that Israel could be arriving at inflated figures of militant deaths by including all civil servants as militants.<ref>https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1370467/report-casts-doubt-on-israeli-army-claims-of-hamas-fighters-killed-in-gaza.html</ref> In early December, Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor estimated that 90% of the casualties were civilians.<ref>https://euromedmonitor.org/en/article/6004/Contrary-to-Israeli-claims,-9-out-of-10-of-those-killed-in-Gaza-are-civilians%E2%80%8B</ref><ref>https://www.commondreams.org/news/gaza-civilians-killed</ref> On May 30, professor Adam Gaffney of Harvard Medical School estimated civilians constituted 80% of total killed.<ref>https://www.thenation.com/article/world/gaza-death-toll-evidence/</ref> On August 2, professor Michael Spagat also estimated that roughly 80% of GHM recorded deaths constituted civilians.<ref>https://aoav.org.uk/2024/netanyahu-got-it-wrong-before-the-us-congress-idfs-clean-performance-in-gaza-is-a-lie/#_ftnref1</ref> These estimates do not include the indirect deaths (caused by the famine and the collapse of the healthcare system), which are likely to be much higher. In February 2024, a joint study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health at Johns Hopkins University found the war continuing at status quo would result in between 58,260 and 74,290 excess deaths by 6 August.<ref>https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/leading-experts-foresee-74290-excess-deaths-gaza</ref> Civilian casualties may be exacerbated by Hamas's use of civilians as human shields. <ref>https://stratcomcoe.org/cuploads/pfiles/hamas_human_shields.pdf</ref>


==See also== ==See also==
* ]
* ]
* ] * ]
* ] * ]
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* ] * ]
:* ] ** ]
:* ] ** ]
:* ] ** ]


==Notes== ==Notes==
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==References== ==References==
{{Refbegin}} {{Refbegin}}
* Anstrom, Jan; Duyvesteyn, Isabelle (2004): ''Rethinking the Nature of War'', , Routledge, ISBN 978-0415354615. * Anstrom, Jan; Duyvesteyn, Isabelle (2004): ''Rethinking the Nature of War'', , Routledge, {{ISBN|978-0-415-35461-5}}.
* Deane, Hugh (1999): ''The Korean War: 1945-1953'', , China Books & Periodicals, ISBN 978-0835126441. * Deane, Hugh (1999): ''The Korean War: 1945-1953'', , China Books & Periodicals, {{ISBN|978-0-8351-2644-1}}.
* Hartley, Cathy ''et al'' (2004): ''Survey of Arab-Israeli Relations'', , Routledge, ISBN 978-1857432619. * Hartley, Cathy ''et al'' (2004): ''Survey of Arab-Israeli Relations'', , Routledge, {{ISBN|978-1-85743-261-9}}.
* Larson, Eric V. (2007): ''Misfortunes of War: Press and Public Reactions to Civilian Deaths in Wartime'', , RAND Corp., ISBN 978-0833038975. * Larson, Eric V. (2007): ''Misfortunes of War: Press and Public Reactions to Civilian Deaths in Wartime'', , RAND Corp., {{ISBN|978-0-8330-3897-5}}.
* Layoun, Mary N. ''et al'' (2001): ''Wedded to the Land? Gender, Boundaries, & Nationalism in Crisis'', , Duke University Press, ISBN 978-0822325451. * Layoun, Mary N. ''et al'' (2001): ''Wedded to the Land? Gender, Boundaries, & Nationalism in Crisis'', , Duke University Press, {{ISBN|978-0-8223-2545-1}}.
* Mattar, Philip: (2005): ''Encyclopedia Of The Palestinians'', , Facts on File, ISBN 978-0816057641. * Mattar, Philip: (2005): ''Encyclopedia Of The Palestinians'', , Facts on File, {{ISBN|978-0-8160-5764-1}}.
* Sadowski, Yahya M. (1998): ''The Myth of Global Chaos'', , Brookings Institution Press, ISBN 978-0815776642. * Sadowski, Yahya M. (1998): ''The Myth of Global Chaos'', , Brookings Institution Press, {{ISBN|978-0-8157-7664-2}}.
* Snow, Donald M. (1996): ''Uncivil Wars: International Security and the New Internal Conflicts'', , Lynne Rienner Publishers, ISBN 978-1555876555. * Snow, Donald M. (1996): ''Uncivil Wars: International Security and the New Internal Conflicts'', , Lynne Rienner Publishers, {{ISBN|978-1-55587-655-5}}.
{{Refend}} {{Refend}}


==Further reading==
*{{cite book |last1=Dumas |first1=Samuel |last2=Vedel-Petersen |first2=K. O. |year=1923 |chapter=Chapter VII: The mortality of the civilian population |title=Losses of Life Caused by War |editor-last=Westergaard |editor-first=Harald |location=Oxford |publisher=Clarendon Press |url=https://archive.org/details/lossesoflifecaus00samu |chapter-url=https://archive.org/stream/lossesoflifecaus00samu#page/115/mode/1up}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Civilian Casualty Ratio}}
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Latest revision as of 01:06, 19 December 2024

Measure of armed conflicts

In armed conflicts, the civilian casualty ratio (also civilian death ratio, civilian-combatant ratio, etc.) is the ratio of civilian casualties to combatant casualties, or total casualties. The measurement can apply either to casualties inflicted by or to a particular belligerent, casualties inflicted in one aspect or arena of a conflict or to casualties in the conflict as a whole. Casualties usually refer to both dead and injured. In some calculations, deaths resulting from famine and epidemics are included.

Starting in the 1980s, it has often been claimed that 90 percent of the victims of modern wars are civilians, repeated in academic publications as recently as 2014. These claims, though widely believed and correct regarding some wars, do not hold up as a generalization across the majority of wars, particularly in the case of wars such as those in former Yugoslavia and in Afghanistan which are central to the claims. Some of the citations can be traced back to a 1991 monograph from Uppsala University which includes refugees and internally displaced persons as casualties. Other authors cite Ruth Leger Sivard's 1991 monograph in which the author states "In the decade of the 1980s, the proportion of civilian deaths jumped to 74 percent of the total and in 1990 it appears to have been close to 90 percent."

A wide-ranging study of civilian war deaths from 1700 to 1987 by William Eckhardt states:

On the average, half of the deaths caused by war happened to civilians, only some of whom were killed by famine associated with war...The civilian percentage share of war-related deaths remained at about 50% from century to century. (p. 97)

Mexican Revolution (1910–20)

Although it is estimated that over 1 million people died in the Mexican Revolution, most died from disease and hunger as an indirect result of the war. Combat deaths are generally agreed to have totaled about 250,000. According to Eckhardt, these included 125,000 civilian deaths and 125,000 combatant deaths, creating a civilian-combatant death ratio of 1:1 among combat deaths.

World War I

See also: World War I casualties

Some 7 million combatants on both sides are estimated to have died during World War I, along with an estimated 10 million non-combatants, including 6.6 million civilians. The civilian casualty ratio in this estimate would be about 59%. Boris Urlanis notes a lack of data on civilian losses in the Ottoman Empire, but estimates 8.6 million military killed and dead and 6 million civilians killed and dead in the other warring countries. The civilian casualty ratio in this estimate would be about 42%. Most of the civilian fatalities were due to famine, typhus, or Spanish flu rather than combat action. The relatively low ratio of civilian casualties in this war is due to the fact that the front lines on the main battlefront, the Western Front, were static for most of the war, so that civilians were able to avoid the combat zones.

Germany suffered 300-750,000 civilian dead during and after the war due to famine caused by the Allied blockade. Russia and Turkey suffered civilian casualties in the millions in the Russian Civil War and invasion of Anatolia respectively. Armenia suffered up to 1.5 million civilians dead in the Armenian genocide.

World War II

See also: World War II casualties

According to most sources, World War II was the most lethal war in world history, with some 70 million killed in six years. According to some, the civilian to combatant fatality ratio in World War II lies somewhere between 3:2 and 2:1, or from 60% to 67%. According to others, the ratio is at least 3:1 and potentially higher. The high ratio of civilian casualties in this war was due in part to the increasing effectiveness and lethality of strategic weapons which were used to target enemy industrial or population centers, and famines caused by economic disruption. An estimated 2.1–3 million Indians died in the Bengal famine of 1943 in India during World War II. A substantial number of civilians in this war were also deliberately killed by Axis Powers as a result of genocide such as the Holocaust or other ethnic cleansing campaigns.

Korean War

The median total estimated Korean civilian deaths in the Korean War is 2,730,000. The total estimated North Korean combatant deaths is 213,000 and the estimated Chinese combatant deaths is over 400,000. In addition to this the Republic of Korea combatant deaths is around 134,000 dead and the combatant deaths for the United Nations side is around 49,000 dead and missing (40,000 dead, 9,000 missing). The estimated total Korean war military dead is around 793,000 deaths. The civilian-combatant death ratio in the war is approximately 3:1 or 75%. One source estimates that 20% of the total population of North Korea perished in the war.

Vietnam War

The Vietnamese government has estimated the number of Vietnamese civilians killed in the Vietnam War at two million, and the number of NVA and Viet Cong killed at 1.1 million—estimates which approximate those of a number of other sources. This would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of approximately 2:1, or 67%. These figures do not include civilians killed in Cambodia and Laos. However, the lowest estimate of 411,000 civilians killed during the war (including civilians killed in Cambodia and Laos) would give a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of approximately 1:3, or 25%. Using the lowest estimate of Vietnamese military deaths, 400,000, the ratio is about 1:1.

1982 Lebanon War

In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon with the stated aim of driving the PLO away from its northern borders. The war culminated in a seven-week-long Israeli naval, air and artillery bombardment of Lebanon's capital, Beirut, where the PLO had retreated. The bombardment eventually came to an end with an internationally brokered settlement in which the PLO forces were given safe passage to evacuate the country.

According to the International Red Cross, by the end of the first week of the war alone, some 10,000 people, including 2,000 combatants, had been killed, and 16,000 wounded—a civilian-combatant fatality ratio of 4:1. Lebanese government sources later estimated that by the end of the siege of Beirut, a total of about 18,000 had been killed, an estimated 85% of whom were civilians. This gives a civilian to military casualty ratio of about 6:1.

According to Richard A. Gabriel between 1,000 and 3,000 civilians were killed in the southern campaign. He states that an additional 4,000 to 5,000 civilians died from all actions of all sides during the siege of Beirut, and that some 2,000 Syrian soldiers were killed during the Lebanon campaign and a further 2,400 PLO guerillas were also killed. Of these, 1,000 PLO guerrillas were killed during the siege. According to Gabriel the ratio of civilian deaths to combatants during the siege was about 6 to 1 but this ratio includes civilian deaths from all actions of all sides.

Chechen wars

See also: Casualties of the Second Chechen War

During the First Chechen War, 4,000 separatist fighters and 40,000 civilians are estimated to have died, giving a civilian-combatant ratio of 10:1. The numbers for the Second Chechen War are 3,000 fighters and 13,000 civilians, for a ratio of 4.3:1. The combined ratio for both wars is 7.6:1. Casualty numbers for the conflict are notoriously unreliable. The estimates of the civilian casualties during the First Chechen war range from 20,000 to 100,000, with remaining numbers being similarly unreliable. The tactics employed by Russian forces in both wars were heavily criticized by human rights groups, which accused them of indiscriminate bombing and shelling of civilian areas and other crimes.

NATO in Yugoslavia

See also: Civilian casualties during Operation Allied Force

In 1999, NATO intervened in the Kosovo War with a bombing campaign against Yugoslav forces, who were conducting a campaign of ethnic cleansing. The bombing lasted about 2½ months, until forcing the withdrawal of the Yugoslav army from Kosovo.

Estimates for the number of casualties caused by the bombing vary widely depending on the source. NATO unofficially claimed a toll of 5,000 enemy combatants killed by the bombardment; the Yugoslav government, on the other hand, gave a figure of 638 of its security forces killed in Kosovo. Estimates for the civilian toll are similarly disparate. Human Rights Watch counted approximately 500 civilians killed by the bombing; the Yugoslav government estimated between 1,200 and 5,000.

If the NATO figures are to be believed, the bombings achieved a civilian to combatant kill ratio of about 1:10, on the Yugoslav government's figures, conversely, the ratio would be between 4:1 and 10:1. If the most conservative estimates from the sources cited above are used, the ratio was around 1:1.

Afghanistan War

See also: Civilian casualties in the war in Afghanistan (2001–2021)

According to the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University, as of January 2015 roughly 92,000 people had been killed in the Afghanistan war, of which over 26,000 were civilians, for a civilian to combatant ratio of 1:2.5.

Iraq War

See also: Casualties of the Iraq War

According to a 2010 assessment by John Sloboda of Iraq Body Count, a United Kingdom-based organization, American and Coalition forces (including Iraqi government forces) had killed at least 28,736 combatants as well as 13,807 civilians in the Iraq War, indicating a civilian to combatant casualty ratio inflicted by coalition forces of 1:2. However, overall, figures by the Iraq Body Count from 20 March 2003 to 14 March 2013 indicate that of 174,000 casualties only 39,900 were combatants, resulting in a civilian casualty rate of 77%. Most civilians were killed by anti-government insurgents and unidentified third parties.

US drone strikes in Pakistan

Main article: Drone attacks in Pakistan § Civilian casualties

The civilian casualty ratio for U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan conducted during 2004 and 2018 as part of the War on Terror is notoriously difficult to quantify. In 2010, the U.S. itself put the number of civilians killed from drone strikes in the last two years at no more than 20 to 30, a total that is far too low according to a spokesman for the NGO CIVIC. At the other extreme, Daniel L. Byman of the Brookings Institution suggested in 2009 that drone strikes may kill "10 or so civilians" for every militant killed, which would represent a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 10:1. Byman argues that civilian killings constitute a humanitarian tragedy and create dangerous political problems, including damage to the legitimacy of the Pakistani government and alienation of the Pakistani populace from America. An ongoing study by the New America Foundation finds non-militant casualty rates started high but declined steeply over time, from about 60% (3 out of 5) in 2004–2007 to less than 2% (1 out of 50) in 2012. In 2011, the study put the overall non-militant casualty rate since 2004 at 15–16%, or a 1:5 ratio, out of a total of between 1,908 and 3,225 people killed in Pakistan by drone strikes since 2004.

War against the Islamic state

The global coalition's War against the Islamic State, from 2014, had led to as many as 50,000 ISIL combatant casualties by the end of 2016. Airwars calculated that 8,200–13,275 civilians were killed in Coalition airstrikes, mainly up to the end of 2017, with especially high casualty rates during the Battle of Mosul. An Associated Press investigation found that in the Battle of Mosul, of the >9,000 fatalities, between 42% and 60% were civilians.

Israeli–Palestinian conflict

Estimates of civilian casualties from the Israeli–Palestinian conflict differ.

2000–2007

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) estimated 4,228 Palestinians and 1,024 Israelis were killed between 2000 and 2007. It quoted B'Tselem estimating that of the Israelis killed by Palestinians, 31% were members of the IDF, while 69% were civilians. For the Palestinians killed by Israelis, 41% were combatants while 59% were civilians.

B'Tselem estimate of % civilians killed by both sides 2000–2007
Total Civilians Civilian to combatant ratio
Israelis killed by Palestinians 1,204 69% 2.2 : 1
Palestinians killed by Israelis 4,228 59% 1.4 : 1

During this period various other claims were made regarding Palestinian civilian to combatants killed by Israel. Amos Harel wrote that the civilian to combatant casualty ratio of Israeli airstrikes (not including ground operations) was 1:1 in 2003, but by 2007 it had improved to 1:30. Meanwhile, the Israeli intelligence agency Shin Bet claimed that of the Palestinians killed between 2006–2007 period in the Gaza Strip (not including the West Bank), only 20% were civilians. The Ha'aretz criticized the Shin Bet as underestimating the civilian casualties. B'Tselem data of Palestinians killed by Israel in the Gaza Strip (not including the West Bank) Jan 1, 2006 to Dec 31, 2007, shows 821 killed, of which 405 were combatants (49%), 346 non-combatants (42%) and the rest with unknown status.

Israel–Gaza conflict

In operations in Gaza since 2008, the ratio again dropped, as low as 3:1 during the 2014 Israel–Gaza conflict.

Yagil Levy, an Israeli sociologist writing in Ha'aretz at the end of 2023, analysed civilian casualty rates in five Israeli aerial operations: Pillar of Defense (~1 week in November 2012); Guardian of the Walls (~10 days in May 2021); Breaking Dawn (3 days, August 2022); Shield and Arrow (5 days in May 2023); and the first two months of the 2023 Israel-Hamas war, based on reports of the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center. He calculated civilian fatality rates for these as follows: 40%, 40%, 42%, 33% and 61%.

2008–09 Gaza War

See also: Casualties of the Gaza War (2008–2009)

Palestinian casualties

Source Total killed Civilians Militants Unidentified Civilian Casualty Ratio Last updated Notes
IDF 1,171 300 709 162 26%
B'Tselem 1,391 759 350 0 68% Also 248 police officers reportedly killed inside police stations
Palestinian Centre for Human Rights 83%

The main sets of figures are those published by the IDF, essentially corroborated by Hamas, the opposing belligerent in the conflict, on the one hand; and those published by B'Tselem on the other hand.

The Goldstone Report into the conflict concluded that while there were many individual Gaza policemen who were members of militant groups, the Gaza police forces were a civilian police force and "cannot be said to have been taking a direct part in hostilities and thus did not lose their civilian immunity from direct attack as civilians".

Israeli casualties

13 Israelis were killed during the conflict, including 10 IDF soldiers (4 killed by friendly fire), giving a civilian casualty ratio for Palestinian forces of 24% or 3:10.

Israel in the 2014 Gaza war

See also: List of Israeli strikes and Palestinian casualties in the 2014 Israel–Gaza conflict

Reports of casualties in the 2014 Israel-Gaza conflict have been made available by a variety of sources. Most media accounts have used figures provided by the government in Gaza or non-governmental organizations. Differing methodologies have resulted in varied reports of both the overall death toll and the civilian casualty ratio.

According to the main estimates between 2,125 and 2,310 Gazans were killed and between 10,626 and 10,895 were wounded (including 3,374 children, of whom over 1,000 were left permanently disabled). 66 Israeli soldiers, 5 Israeli civilians (including one child) and one Thai civilian were killed and 469 IDF soldiers and 261 Israeli civilians were injured. The Gaza Health Ministry, UN and some human rights groups reported that 69–75% of the Palestinian casualties were civilians; Israeli officials estimated that around 50% of those killed were civilians., giving Israeli forces a ratio between 1:1 and 3:1 during the conflict.

In March 2015, OCHA reported that 2,220 Palestinians had been killed in the conflict, of whom 1,492 were civilians (551 children and 299 women), 605 militants and 123 of unknown status, giving Israeli forces a ratio of 3:1.

Source Total killed Civilians Militants Unidentified Percent civilians Last updated Notes
Hamas GHM 2,310 ≈1,617 ≈693 — 70% 3 January 2015 Defines as a civilian anyone who is not claimed by an armed group as a member.
UN HRC 2,251 1,462 789 — 65% 22 June 2015 Total killed referenced information from Hamas GHM. Cross-referenced information from GHM with other sources for civilian percentage
Israel MFA 2,125 761 936 428 36% of the total
45% of identified		 14 June 2015 Uses its own intelligence reports as well as Palestinian sources and media reports to determine combatant deaths.

2023 Israel–Hamas war

Main article: Casualties of the Israel–Hamas war

On October 7, 2023, Hamas led an attack on Israel which killed 1,140 Israelis, of which 695 were Israeli civilians, as well as 373 soldiers from various military positions and 71 foreign civilians, a ratio of 2:1 between civilians and militant forces. During the invasion of the Gaza Strip, the IDF reported around 300 deaths of soldiers, while the Hamas al Qassam Brigade estimated the number around 4,000 to 5,000 deaths of Israeli soldiers, Following the attack, Israel started extensive aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip followed by a large-scale ground invasion beginning on the 27th.

As of September 2024, more than 41,000 people killed by Israel in Gaza according to the Gaza Ministry of Health, since October 7, 2023, in addition to an estimated 10,000 bodies missing under the rubble. Among these numbers, 56% are estimated to be women and children. An investigation by the UN Human Rights Office into a subset of 8,119 verified fatalities found around 70% of them to be women and children, with 5-9 year olds the most heavily represented group.

According to the Israeli Defense Force, over 17,000 Palestinian militants were killed out of about 41,000 total people killed as of September 2024, which would suggest a civilian to combatant ratio of about 1.4:1. Some sources have doubted the Israeli official reports. In March 2024, Haaretz interviewed several standing army commanders and reserve commanders who cast doubt on Israel's official figures of how many terrorists it had killed. It is possible that some of those included in the combatant killed count were "Palestinians who never held a gun in their lives". Some observers believe Israel treats all adult male casualties as militants. Other observers argue that Israel could be arriving at inflated figures of militant deaths by including all civil servants as militants. In early December, Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor estimated that 90% of the casualties were civilians. On May 30, professor Adam Gaffney of Harvard Medical School estimated civilians constituted 80% of total killed. On August 2, professor Michael Spagat also estimated that roughly 80% of GHM recorded deaths constituted civilians. These estimates do not include the indirect deaths (caused by the famine and the collapse of the healthcare system), which are likely to be much higher. In February 2024, a joint study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health at Johns Hopkins University found the war continuing at status quo would result in between 58,260 and 74,290 excess deaths by 6 August. Civilian casualties may be exacerbated by Hamas's use of civilians as human shields.

See also

Notes

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  3. Mary Kaldor, New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era, Polity Press, Cambridge, 1999, p. 107.
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  6. Adam Roberts, "Lives and Statistics: Are 90% of War Victims Civilians?", Survival, London, vol. 52, no. 3, June–July 2010, pp. 115–35. Print edition ISSN 0039-6338. Online ISSN 1468-2699.
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References

Further reading

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