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{{Use Australian English|date=October 2019}}
]]]
{{Use dmy dates|date=October 2019}}
A '''by-election''' was held for the ] seat of ''']''' on 18 October 2008 to coincide with the ], ] and ] by-elections.<ref name="abcnews_2355236">{{cite news
{{Infobox election
| title = Liberals 'a big chance' in Watkins' seat
| country = New South Wales
| publisher = ]
| date = 2008-09-04 | type = parliamentary
| ongoing = no
| url = http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/04/2355236.htm
| election_date = 18 October 2008
| accessdate = 2008-09-07 }}</ref> The by-election was triggered by the resignation of sitting member and Deputy Premier ], who cited exhaustion and the lack of time spent with his family for his resignation.<ref>{{cite news
| previous_election = 2007 New South Wales state election
| last = Smith
| previous_year = 2007
| first = Alexandra
| next_election = 2011 New South Wales state election
| coauthors = with AAP
| next_year = 2011
| title = Watkins quits politics to put family first
| seats_for_election = ] in the ]
| publisher = ]
| date = 2008-09-03
| url = http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/john-watkins-quits-family-first/2008/09/03/1220121304006.html
| accessdate = 2008-09-07}}</ref> Watkins resigned from parliament and his portfolio of Minister for Transport on 8 September 2008, prompting a Cabinet reshuffle.


| image1 = ]
The by-election was won by ] candidate ] on a swing of 23 percent. This was a marked turnaround to the result at the ], when Labor won the seat with 60.09% of the two-party preferred vote.<ref>{{cite web
| candidate1 = ]
| title = 2007 State Election Results: State Electoral District of RYDE
| publisher = ] | party1 = Liberal Party of Australia (New South Wales Division)
| popular_vote1 = '''21,370'''
| url = http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/state_government_elections/electoral_districts/all_districts_/ryde/results_2007/perferential_count
| percentage1 = '''54.34%'''
| accessdate = 2008-09-07 }}
| swing1 = {{increase}} 25.74
</ref> However, the writ was dropped for this contest at a very bad time for the government; it had been sinking in the polls only a year after being reelected. Dominello's victory turned Ryde from a safe Labor seat into a safe Liberal seat in one stroke. At the time, it was the largest swing against a sitting government in New South Wales history; it has since been outdone by the ] (which saw a 25 percent swing against Labor) and the ] (which saw a 26 percent swing against the Coalition).


| image2 = ]
The loss of Ryde proved to be the beginning of the end for the Labor government, which was heavily defeated in the [[New South Wales state election, 2011|2011 state election.
| candidate2 = Nicole Campbell
| party2 = Australian Labor Party (New South Wales Branch)
| popular_vote2 = 11,725
| percentage2 = 29.81%
| swing2 = {{decrease}} 15.03

| image3 = ]
| candidate3 = Lindsay Peters
| party3 = The Greens NSW
| popular_vote3 = 4,407
| percentage3 = 11.21%
| swing3 = {{increase}} 3.34

| 1blank = ]
| 2blank = TPP swing
| 1data1 = '''63.01%'''
| 2data1 = {{increase}} 23.10
| 1data2 = 36.99%
| 2data2 = {{decrease}} 23.10

| map_image = ]
| map_caption = Location in ]

| title = ]
| before_election = ]
| before_party = Australian Labor Party (New South Wales Branch)
| after_election = ]
| after_party = Liberal Party of Australia (New South Wales Division)
}}
A by-election was held for the ] seat of ] on 18 October 2008 to coincide with the ], ] and ] by-elections.<ref name="abcnews_2355236">{{Cite news|title=Liberals 'a big chance' in Watkins' seat|work=]|date=2008-09-04|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2008-09-04/liberals-a-big-chance-in-watkins-seat/499292|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231210063926/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2008-09-04/liberals-a-big-chance-in-watkins-seat/499292 |archive-date=10 December 2023|url-status=live|access-date=2008-09-07}}</ref> The by-election was triggered by the resignation of sitting member and Deputy Premier ], who cited exhaustion and the lack of time spent with his family for his resignation.<ref>{{cite news | last = Smith | first = Alexandra |work=AAP | title = Watkins quits politics to put family first | via = ] | date = 2008-09-03 |archive-date=10 December 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231210062919/https://www.smh.com.au/national/watkins-quits-politics-to-put-family-first-20080904-gdsti2.html |url-status=live | url = http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/john-watkins-quits-family-first/2008/09/03/1220121304006.html | access-date = 2008-09-07}}</ref> Watkins resigned as Deputy Premier and Minister for Transport and retired from parliament on 8 September 2008, prompting a Cabinet reshuffle.

The by-election was won by ] candidate ] on a swing of 23%. This was a marked turnaround to the result at the ], when Watkins was reelected with 60.09% of the two-party preferred vote.<ref>{{cite web | title = Ryde - 2007 (Roll: 46,237) | website = parliament.nsw.gov.au | url = https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/electionresults18562007/2007/Ryde.htm |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231210062918/https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/electionresults18562007/2007/Ryde.htm |archive-date=10 December 2023 |url-status=live | access-date = 2008-09-07 }}</ref>

However, the writ was issued at a very bad time for the government. Labor had been sinking in the polls since being reelected a year earlier. It had suffered from several months of bad press that had driven its poll numbers downward. It was only polling at 44% support, a swing of almost 8% from the 2007 election. Additionally, Watkins' resignation had touched off a domino effect that ultimately resulted in ] ] leaving politics as well.

Watkins had held Ryde without interruption or serious difficulty since its re-creation in 1999, having held its predecessor seat of ] since 1995. Labor sat on a margin of 10.1%, which would have been considered safe under normal conditions (any seat with a two-party margin greater than 10% is considered safe on paper). However, the seat had historically been marginal at the federal level. Combined with Labor's declining poll numbers, commentators thought it was vulnerable to being taken by the Liberals.

On paper, Dominello's victory turned Ryde from a safe Labor seat into a safe Liberal seat in one stroke. At the time, it was the largest swing against a sitting government in New South Wales history; it has since been outdone by the ] (which saw a 25% swing against Labor) and the ] (which saw a 26% swing against the Coalition).

The loss of Ryde significantly weakened the standing of Iemma's successor, ], who would himself be ousted in a party room coup a year later. Labor would go on to suffer a landslide defeat at the ].

==Dates==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Date
! Event
|-
| 12 September 2008
| Resignation of ].<ref name="John Watkins NSW parl">{{cite NSW Parliament |title=The Hon. John Arthur Watkins AM (1955- ) |id=2120 |former=Yes |accessdate=8 June 2019}}</ref>
|-
| 22 September 2008
| ] issued by the ] and close of ]s.<ref>
{{cite web |url=https://gazette.legislation.nsw.gov.au/so/download.w3p?id=Gaz_Gazette%20Split%202008_2008-122.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231210064922/https://gazette.legislation.nsw.gov.au/so/download.w3p?id=Gaz_Gazette%20Split%202008_2008-122.pdf |archive-date=10 December 2023 |url-status=live |issn=0155-6320|title=Writ of election: Ryde |newspaper=] |issue=122 |date=22 September 2008 |access-date=23 October 2019 |page=9392 |first=Russell D. |last=Grove |publisher=Clerk of the Legislative Assembly |via=Denis H. Helm, Government Printer |location=Sydney}}</ref>
|-
| 26 September 2008
| Date of nomination
|-
| 18 October 2008
| Polling day
|-
| 1 November 2008
| Return of writ
|}


==Results== ==Results==


{{Election box begin | {{Election box begin |
|title=2008 Ryde by-election{{hsp}}<ref>{{cite web |url=https://elections.nsw.gov.au/getmedia/55cc78c8-3d20-4679-985c-71c8fccb746e/2008-ryde-state-by-election-report.pdf |title=State By-Election Report Ryde 2008 |publisher=NSW Electoral Commission |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231210063335/https://elections.nsw.gov.au/getmedia/55cc78c8-3d20-4679-985c-71c8fccb746e/2008-ryde-state-by-election-report.pdf |archive-date=10 December 2023 |location=Level 25, 201 Kent Street, Sydney 2000 |date=25 May 2009 |quote=Dominello elected at count 1 |page=14}}{{cbignore|bot=medic}}</ref> }}
|title=Ryde by-election, 2008<ref></ref> }}
{{Election box candidate AU party| {{Election box candidate AU party|
|party = Liberal |party = Liberal NSW
|candidate = ] |candidate = ]
|votes = 21,370 |votes = 21,370
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}} }}
{{Election box candidate AU party| {{Election box candidate AU party|
|party = Labor |party = Labor NSW
|candidate = Nicole Campbell |candidate = Nicole Campbell
|votes = 11,725 |votes = 11,725
Line 43: Line 103:
}} }}
{{Election box candidate AU party| {{Election box candidate AU party|
|party = Greens |party = Greens NSW
|candidate = Lindsay Peters |candidate = Lindsay Peters
|votes = 4,407 |votes = 4,407
Line 80: Line 140:
{{Election box 2pp}} {{Election box 2pp}}
{{Election box candidate AU party| {{Election box candidate AU party|
|party = Liberal |party = Liberal NSW
|candidate = ] |candidate = ]
|votes = 22,556 |votes = 22,556
Line 87: Line 147:
}} }}
{{Election box candidate AU party| {{Election box candidate AU party|
|party = Labor |party = Labor NSW
|candidate = Nicole Campbell |candidate = Nicole Campbell
|votes = 13,243 |votes = 13,243
Line 94: Line 154:
}} }}
{{Election box gain AU party {{Election box gain AU party
|winner = Liberal |winner = Liberal NSW
|loser = Labor |loser = Labor NSW
|swing = +23.10 |swing = +23.10
}} }}
{{Election box end}} {{Election box end}}

==See also==
*]
*]


==References== ==References==
{{reflist}} {{Reflist}}


==External links== ==External links==
* *


{{NSW by-elections 54th parl}} {{NSW by-elections 54th parl|state=expanded}}
{{Results of New South Wales state elections}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Ryde 2008}}
] ]
] ]
]
]

Latest revision as of 12:12, 23 January 2024

2008 Ryde state by-election
← 2007 18 October 2008 2011 →
Electoral district of Ryde in the Legislative Assembly
  First party Second party Third party
 
Candidate Victor Dominello Nicole Campbell Lindsay Peters
Party Liberal Labor Greens
Popular vote 21,370 11,725 4,407
Percentage 54.34% 29.81% 11.21%
Swing Increase 25.74 Decrease 15.03 Increase 3.34
TPP 63.01% 36.99%
TPP swing Increase 23.10 Decrease 23.10
Location in New South Wales
MP before election

John Watkins
Labor

Elected MP

Victor Dominello
Liberal

A by-election was held for the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Ryde on 18 October 2008 to coincide with the Port Macquarie, Lakemba and Cabramatta by-elections. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of sitting member and Deputy Premier John Watkins, who cited exhaustion and the lack of time spent with his family for his resignation. Watkins resigned as Deputy Premier and Minister for Transport and retired from parliament on 8 September 2008, prompting a Cabinet reshuffle.

The by-election was won by Liberal candidate Victor Dominello on a swing of 23%. This was a marked turnaround to the result at the 2007 state election, when Watkins was reelected with 60.09% of the two-party preferred vote.

However, the writ was issued at a very bad time for the government. Labor had been sinking in the polls since being reelected a year earlier. It had suffered from several months of bad press that had driven its poll numbers downward. It was only polling at 44% support, a swing of almost 8% from the 2007 election. Additionally, Watkins' resignation had touched off a domino effect that ultimately resulted in Premier Morris Iemma leaving politics as well.

Watkins had held Ryde without interruption or serious difficulty since its re-creation in 1999, having held its predecessor seat of Gladesville since 1995. Labor sat on a margin of 10.1%, which would have been considered safe under normal conditions (any seat with a two-party margin greater than 10% is considered safe on paper). However, the seat had historically been marginal at the federal level. Combined with Labor's declining poll numbers, commentators thought it was vulnerable to being taken by the Liberals.

On paper, Dominello's victory turned Ryde from a safe Labor seat into a safe Liberal seat in one stroke. At the time, it was the largest swing against a sitting government in New South Wales history; it has since been outdone by the 2010 Penrith by-election (which saw a 25% swing against Labor) and the 2013 Miranda by-election (which saw a 26% swing against the Coalition).

The loss of Ryde significantly weakened the standing of Iemma's successor, Nathan Rees, who would himself be ousted in a party room coup a year later. Labor would go on to suffer a landslide defeat at the 2011 state election.

Dates

Date Event
12 September 2008 Resignation of John Watkins.
22 September 2008 Writ of election issued by the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly and close of electoral rolls.
26 September 2008 Date of nomination
18 October 2008 Polling day
1 November 2008 Return of writ

Results

2008 Ryde by-election 
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Victor Dominello 21,370 54.34 +25.74
Labor Nicole Campbell 11,725 29.81 −15.03
Greens Lindsay Peters 4,407 11.21 +3.34
Independent Victor Taffa 1,171 2.98 +2.98
Democrats Peter Goldfinch 656 1.67 +0.27
Total formal votes 39,329 97.96 +0.53
Informal votes 820 2.04 −0.53
Turnout 40,149 83.64 −9.33
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal Victor Dominello 22,556 63.01 +23.10
Labor Nicole Campbell 13,243 36.99 −23.10
Liberal gain from Labor Swing +23.10

See also

References

  1. "Liberals 'a big chance' in Watkins' seat". ABC News. 4 September 2008. Archived from the original on 10 December 2023. Retrieved 7 September 2008.
  2. Smith, Alexandra (3 September 2008). "Watkins quits politics to put family first". AAP. Archived from the original on 10 December 2023. Retrieved 7 September 2008 – via The Sydney Morning Herald.
  3. "Ryde - 2007 (Roll: 46,237)". parliament.nsw.gov.au. Archived from the original on 10 December 2023. Retrieved 7 September 2008.
  4. "The Hon. John Arthur Watkins AM (1955- )". Former members of the Parliament of New South Wales. Retrieved 8 June 2019.
  5. Grove, Russell D. (22 September 2008). "Writ of election: Ryde" (PDF). Government Gazette of the State of New South Wales. Sydney: Clerk of the Legislative Assembly. p. 9392. ISSN 0155-6320. Archived (PDF) from the original on 10 December 2023. Retrieved 23 October 2019 – via Denis H. Helm, Government Printer.
  6. "State By-Election Report Ryde 2008" (PDF). Level 25, 201 Kent Street, Sydney 2000: NSW Electoral Commission. 25 May 2009. p. 14. Archived (PDF) from the original on 10 December 2023. Dominello elected at count 1{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: location (link)

External links

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