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'''C/2013 A1''' ('''Siding Spring''') is an ] ] discovered on 3 January 2013 by ] at ] using the {{convert|0.5|m|in|adj=on|sp=us}} ].<ref name="MPEC2013-A14"/> At the time of discovery the comet was 7.2&nbsp;] from the Sun and located in the ] ]. Comet C/2013 A1 probably took millions of years to come from the ]. After leaving the planetary region of the Solar System, the post-perihelion ] (] 2050) is estimated to be roughly 1 million&nbsp;].<ref name=barycenter/> ] images of the comet by the ] from 8&nbsp;December 2012 were quickly found.<ref name="MPEC2013-A14"/> On 3 March 2013, ] precovery images from 4 October 2012 were announced that extended the observation arc to 148 days.<ref name="mpc"/> '''C/2013 A1''' ('''Siding Spring''') is an ] ] discovered on 3 January 2013 by ] at ] using the {{convert|0.5|m|in|adj=on|sp=us}} ].<ref name="MPEC2013-A14"/> At the time of discovery it was 7.2&nbsp;] from the Sun and located in the ] ]. Comet C/2013 A1 probably took millions of years to come from the ]. After leaving the planetary region of the Solar System, the post-perihelion ] (] 2050) is estimated to be roughly 1 million&nbsp;].<ref name=barycenter/> ] images by the ] from 8&nbsp;December 2012 were quickly found.<ref name="MPEC2013-A14"/> On 3 March 2013, ] precovery images from 4 October 2012 were announced that extended the observation arc to 148 days.<ref name="mpc"/>


== Encounter with Mars == == Encounter with Mars ==
The comet will pass extremely close to ] on 19 October 2014, so close that the ] may envelop Mars.<ref name="SD-20131201"/><ref name="NS-20131206"/> Initial ] by ] on 27&nbsp;February 2013, suggested the comet might pass {{convert|0.000276|AU|km mi|abbr=on|lk=off}} from the center-point of Mars.<ref name="Elenin0227"/> With an observation arc of 465&nbsp;days, the ] pass is {{convert|0.00092|AU|km mi|abbr=on|lk=on}} from the center-point of Mars and the uncertainty region shows the comet will not come closer than {{convert|0.00087|AU|km mi|abbr=on|lk=off}}.<ref name=jpl-close/> For comparison, Mars' outer moon ] orbits 23,500&nbsp;km from the planet. Due to the uncertainty region, there is a small possibility that the comet will pass Mars as far away as {{convert|0.00096|AU|km mi|abbr=on|lk=off}}. The comet will pass Mars at a relative velocity of 56&nbsp;km/s.<ref name=jpl-close/> Comet Siding Spring will pass extremely close to ] on 19 October 2014, so close that the ] may envelop Mars.<ref name="SD-20131201"/><ref name="NS-20131206"/> Initial ] by ] on 27&nbsp;February 2013, suggested that it might pass {{convert|0.000276|AU|km mi|abbr=on|lk=off}} from the center of Mars.<ref name="Elenin0227"/> With an observation arc of 465&nbsp;days, the ] pass is {{convert|0.00092|AU|km mi|abbr=on|lk=on}} from the center-point of Mars and the uncertainty region shows that it will not come closer than {{convert|0.00087|AU|km mi|abbr=on|lk=off}}.<ref name=jpl-close/> For comparison, Mars's outer moon ] orbits 23,500&nbsp;km from the planet. Due to the uncertainty region, there is a small possibility that it will pass Mars as far away as {{convert|0.00096|AU|km mi|abbr=on|lk=off}}. It will pass Mars at a relative velocity of 56&nbsp;km/s.<ref name=jpl-close/>
] ]
] ]
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As seen from Earth, on 19 October 2014 Mars will be in the ] ], and will be 60&nbsp;degrees from the Sun. Mars and the comet will also be visible to the ]-A spacecraft during the 2014 encounter.<ref name="STEREO-HI2"/> The spacecraft ] and ] will arrive at Mars one month before the comet's closest approach. Already in orbit around Mars are ], ], and ]; all these artificial satellites may be exposed to potentially damaging particles.<ref name='Moorheada-Jan. 2014'> {{cite journal | title = The meteoroid fluence at Mars due to Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) | journal = Elsevier B.V: Icarus | date = January 2014 (online) | first = Althea V. | last = Althea V. Moorheada | coauthors = Paul A. Wiegert, William J. Cooke | volume = 231 | pages = 13-21| id = | url = http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019103513005022 | accessdate = 2014-01-26}}</ref> On the ground are the ] and ] rovers. As seen from Earth, on 19 October 2014 Mars will be in the ] ], and will be 60&nbsp;degrees from the Sun. Mars and Comet Siding Spring will also be visible to the ]-A spacecraft during the 2014 encounter.<ref name="STEREO-HI2"/> The spacecraft ] and ] will arrive at Mars one month before Comet Siding Spring's closest approach. Already in orbit around Mars are ], ], and ]; all these artificial satellites may be exposed to potentially damaging particles.<ref name='Moorheada-Jan. 2014'> {{cite journal | title = The meteoroid fluence at Mars due to Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) | journal = Elsevier B.V: Icarus | date = January 2014 (online) | first = Althea V. | last = Althea V. Moorheada | coauthors = Paul A. Wiegert, William J. Cooke | volume = 231 | pages = 13-21| id = | url = http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019103513005022 | accessdate = 2014-01-26}}</ref> On the ground are the ] and ] rovers.


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It is possible that the comet could create a spectacular ] on Mars or be a threat to the spacecraft in orbit on its closest approach to Mars.<ref name="NS-20131206"/> The comet will have to be extremely close to Mars for its debris to pose any risk. Millimeter-sized grains will be ejected at about {{convert|1|m/s|mph|0|abbr=on}}, and would take more than a year to travel 100,000&nbsp;km from the comet.<ref name="Lakdawalla0305"/> It is possible that Comet Siding Spring could create a spectacular ] on Mars or be a threat to the spacecraft in orbit on its closest approach to Mars.<ref name="NS-20131206"/> It will have to be extremely close to Mars for its debris to pose any risk. Millimeter-sized grains will be ejected at about {{convert|1|m/s|mph|0|abbr=on}}, and would take more than a year to travel 100,000&nbsp;km from Comet Siding Spring.<ref name="Lakdawalla0305"/>


Estimates for the diameter of the nucleus have varied from {{convert|1|to|50|km|abbr=on}}.<ref name="Elenin0225"/><ref name="nasa-26mar"/> The resulting upper limit energy of a hypothetical impact could reach 20&nbsp;billion ].<ref name="Elenin0225"/><ref name="Bell"/> C/2013 A1 probably has a nucleus comparable in size to ] (~4&nbsp;km).<ref name="Cerny0303"/> The diameter of such a hypothetical ] would be roughly ten times the diameter of the comet's ].<ref name="Elenin0225"/> Using the older observation arc of 148 days, a ] showed roughly a 1 in 1,250 chance (0.08%) of a Mars impact.<ref name="Elenin0303"/> As of March 2013, the estimated chance of impact was about 1 in 2000.<ref name="nasa-26mar"/> As of April 2013, the odds of a Mars impact were about 1 in 8000.<ref name="CBS2013-04"/> The 8 April 2013 ] ] solution was the first solution to show that the minimum approach by the comet would miss Mars.<ref name=jpl-close/> As of 8 April 2013, the odds of impact were only 1 in 120,000.<ref name="NASA2013-081"/> Estimates for the diameter of the nucleus have varied from {{convert|1|to|50|km|abbr=on}}.<ref name="Elenin0225"/><ref name="nasa-26mar"/> The resulting upper-limit energy of a hypothetical impact could reach 20&nbsp;billion ].<ref name="Elenin0225"/><ref name="Bell"/> C/2013 A1 probably has a nucleus comparable in size to ] (~4&nbsp;km).<ref name="Cerny0303"/> The diameter of such a hypothetical ] would be roughly ten times the diameter of the comet's ].<ref name="Elenin0225"/> Using the older observation arc of 148 days, a ] showed roughly a 1 in 1,250 chance (0.08%) of a Mars impact.<ref name="Elenin0303"/> As of March 2013, the estimated chance of impact was about 1 in 2000.<ref name="nasa-26mar"/> As of April 2013, the odds of a Mars impact were about 1 in 8000.<ref name="CBS2013-04"/> The 8 April 2013 ] ] solution was the first solution to show that the minimum approach by Comet Siding Spring would miss Mars.<ref name=jpl-close/> As of 8 April 2013, the odds of impact were only 1 in 120,000.<ref name="NASA2013-081"/>


== References == == References ==

Revision as of 16:11, 29 January 2014

"Comet Siding Spring" redirects here. For a comet discovered in 2007, see C/2007 Q3.

C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring)
Comet Siding Spring as seen by NEOWISE on 16 January 2014.
Discovery
Discovered bySiding Spring Observatory
0.5-m Schmidt (E12)
Discovery date3 January 2013
Orbital characteristics
Epoch2014-Oct-30
(JD 2456960.5)
Perihelion1.39875 AU (q)
Eccentricity1.00046
Orbital period~1 million yr
(Barycentric solution for epoch 2050)
Inclination129.0°
Next perihelion25 October 2014

C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) is an Oort cloud comet discovered on 3 January 2013 by Robert H. McNaught at Siding Spring Observatory using the 0.5-meter (20 in) Uppsala Southern Schmidt Telescope. At the time of discovery it was 7.2 AU from the Sun and located in the constellation Lepus. Comet C/2013 A1 probably took millions of years to come from the Oort cloud. After leaving the planetary region of the Solar System, the post-perihelion orbital period (epoch 2050) is estimated to be roughly 1 million years. Precovery images by the Catalina Sky Survey from 8 December 2012 were quickly found. On 3 March 2013, Pan-STARRS precovery images from 4 October 2012 were announced that extended the observation arc to 148 days.

Encounter with Mars

Comet Siding Spring will pass extremely close to Mars on 19 October 2014, so close that the coma may envelop Mars. Initial observations by Leonid Elenin on 27 February 2013, suggested that it might pass 0.000276 AU (41,300 km; 25,700 mi) from the center of Mars. With an observation arc of 465 days, the nominal pass is 0.00092 AU (138,000 km; 86,000 mi) from the center-point of Mars and the uncertainty region shows that it will not come closer than 0.00087 AU (130,000 km; 81,000 mi). For comparison, Mars's outer moon Deimos orbits 23,500 km from the planet. Due to the uncertainty region, there is a small possibility that it will pass Mars as far away as 0.00096 AU (144,000 km; 89,000 mi). It will pass Mars at a relative velocity of 56 km/s.

Position of Comet Siding Spring on 17 October 2014.
Comet Siding Spring encounters Mars on 19 October 2014.
JPL Small-Body Database uncertainty region
for close approach to Mars on 19 October 2014
Observation
arc
(in days)
Minimum
distance
(AU)
Nominal
distance
(AU)
Maximum
distance
(AU)
Nominal
passage
time (UT)
  44 0 0.0059   0.024   10:26
  58 0 0.0025   0.012   15:50
  74 0 0.00070 0.0079 21:00
148 0 0.00035 0.0021 19:28
154 0 0.00074 0.0023 18:50
162 0 0.00079 0.0023 18:45
171 0 0.00080 0.0022 18:44
185 0.00006   0.00076 0.0020 18:51
201 0.000068 0.00080 0.0019 18:45
211 0.000209 0.00079 0.0018 18:45
244 0.000098 0.00082 0.0016 18:41
293 0.000252 0.00082 0.0014 18:41
341 0.000443 0.00089 0.0013 18:32
360 0.000546 0.00089 0.0012 18:32
369 0.000607 0.00093 0.0012 18:28
379 0.000595 0.00088 0.0012 18:34
388 0.000690 0.00090 0.0011 18:31
394 0.000775 0.00095 0.0011 18:26
399 0.000801 0.00095 0.0011 18:26
415 0.000853 0.00096 0.0011 18:25
428 0.000868 0.00096 0.0010 18:25
465 0.000875 0.00092 0.0010 18:28

As seen from Earth, on 19 October 2014 Mars will be in the constellation Ophiuchus, and will be 60 degrees from the Sun. Mars and Comet Siding Spring will also be visible to the STEREO-A spacecraft during the 2014 encounter. The spacecraft MAVEN and Mars Orbiter Mission will arrive at Mars one month before Comet Siding Spring's closest approach. Already in orbit around Mars are Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, Mars Express, and 2001 Mars Odyssey; all these artificial satellites may be exposed to potentially damaging particles. On the ground are the Curiosity and Opportunity rovers.

Hypothetical comet impact at 56 km/s
into sedimentary rock
Impactor
diameter
Kinetic energy Crater
diameter
km (1.9 mi) 5.3 million Mt 45 km (28 mi)
5 km (3.1 mi) 24.5 million Mt 71 km (44 mi)
8 km (5.0 mi) 100 million Mt 108 km (67 mi)
15 km (9.3 mi) 660 million Mt 188 km (117 mi)
20 km (12 mi) 1.57 billion Mt 242 km (150 mi)
50 km (31 mi) 24 billion Mt 544 km (338 mi)

It is possible that Comet Siding Spring could create a spectacular meteor shower on Mars or be a threat to the spacecraft in orbit on its closest approach to Mars. It will have to be extremely close to Mars for its debris to pose any risk. Millimeter-sized grains will be ejected at about 1 m/s (2 mph), and would take more than a year to travel 100,000 km from Comet Siding Spring.

Estimates for the diameter of the nucleus have varied from 1 to 50 km (0.62 to 31.07 mi). The resulting upper-limit energy of a hypothetical impact could reach 20 billion megatons. C/2013 A1 probably has a nucleus comparable in size to Comet Hyakutake (~4 km). The diameter of such a hypothetical impact crater would be roughly ten times the diameter of the comet's nucleus. Using the older observation arc of 148 days, a Monte Carlo method showed roughly a 1 in 1,250 chance (0.08%) of a Mars impact. As of March 2013, the estimated chance of impact was about 1 in 2000. As of April 2013, the odds of a Mars impact were about 1 in 8000. The 8 April 2013 JPL 3-sigma solution was the first solution to show that the minimum approach by Comet Siding Spring would miss Mars. As of 8 April 2013, the odds of impact were only 1 in 120,000.

References

  1. ^ "MPEC 2013-A14 : COMET C/2013 A1 (SIDING SPRING)". IAU Minor Planet Center. 5 January 2013. Retrieved 1 February 2013. (CK13A010)
  2. "MPEC 2013-U73: Observations and Orbits of Comets". IAU Minor Planet Center. 28 October 2013. Retrieved 1 October 2013.
  3. ^ Horizons output. "Barycentric Osculating Orbital Elements for Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring)". Retrieved 24 April 2013. (Solution using the Solar System Barycenter and barycentric coordinates. Select Ephemeris Type:Elements and Center:@0)
  4. "C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) Orbit". Minor Planet Center. 1 March 2013. Retrieved 3 March 2013.
  5. Moorhead, Althea; Wiegert, Paul A.; Cooke, William J. (1 December 2013). "The meteoroid fluence at Mars due to comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring)". Icarus. doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2013.11.028. Retrieved 7 December 2013.
  6. ^ Grossman, Lisa (6 December 2013). "Fiercest meteor shower on record to hit Mars via comet". New Scientist. Retrieved 7 December 2013.
  7. Elenin, Leonid (27 February 2013). "New data concerning the close approach of comet C/2013 A1 to Mars". SpaceObs.org blog (ISON-NM). Retrieved 27 February 2013.
  8. ^ "JPL Close-Approach Data: C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring)". 2014-01-12 last obs (arc=465 days w/503 obs). Retrieved 2013-01-17. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  9. Thompson, Bill (28 February 2013). "STEREO-A spacecraft has a ring-side seat of "Siding Spring v's Mars" next year". Sungrazing Comets. Retrieved 28 February 2013.
  10. Althea V. Moorheada, Althea V. (January 2014 (online)). "The meteoroid fluence at Mars due to Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring)". Elsevier B.V: Icarus. 231: 13–21. Retrieved 2014-01-26. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
  11. Robert Marcus, H. Jay Melosh, and Gareth Collins (2010). "Earth Impact Effects Program". Imperial College London / Purdue University. Retrieved 4 February 2013.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) (solution using 1000kg/m^3, 56km/s, 45 degrees)
  12. Lakdawalla, Emily (5 March 2013). "Will comet Siding Spring make a meteor shower on Mars?". Planetary Society blogs. Retrieved 6 March 2013.
  13. ^ Elenin, Leonid (25 February 2013). "Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) – a possible collision with Mars". SpaceObs.org blog (ISON-NM). Retrieved 27 February 2013.
  14. ^ Phillips, Tony (27 March 2013). "Collision Course? A Comet Heads for Mars". Science News. NASA. Retrieved 27 March 2013.
  15. Bell, Charles (26 February 2013). "Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring)". Retrieved 27 February 2013.
  16. Černý, Jakub (1 March 2013). "Jak je velké jádro komety C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring)?". Retrieved 3 March 2013.
  17. Elenin, Leonid (3 March 2013). "Close approach to Mars. Up-to-date analysis". SpaceObs.org blog (ISON-NM). Retrieved 3 March 2013.
  18. "Mars vs. comet in 2014: Scientists prepare for red planet sky show". CBS News. 1 April 2013. Retrieved 6 April 2013.
  19. DC Agle (12 April 2013). "Comet to Make Close Flyby of Red Planet in October 2014". NASA/JPL. Retrieved 13 April 2013.

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