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There is no certainty that a federal election to elect members of the Canadian House of Commons will be held in Canada in 2005, but it is a distinct possibility. There is no legal requirement to hold the 39th general election before 2009.

An election in 2005 is possible because the 2004 federal election held on June 28, 2004, resulted in the election of a Liberal minority government. In the past, minority governments have had an average lifespan a year and a half. Some pundits consider the current minority to be particularly unstable. It involves four parties, and only very implausible ideological combinations (e.g., Liberals + Conservatives, or Liberals + Bloc Québécois) could actually command a majority of the seats.

These combinations may happen on certain issues, but are not likely to stand as stable governing coalitions. The Liberals, New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc could form a voting coalition on decriminalization of marijuana, or endorsing the Kyoto Accord. It will in fact be a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives that will ensure the government passes the motion of confidence surrounding the budget due to the tax cuts and defence spending therein.

From its earliest moments, there was some threat of the government falling as even the Speech from the Throne almost resulted in a non-confidence vote.

The two largest parties, the Liberals and Conservatives, are both low on funds to run a campaign, and new campaign finance laws make it far harder to raise funds. It seems unlikely that there will be an early election if these two parties are unwilling to go to the polls. However, the Bloc Québécois is very eager to have an election because of resurfacing anger in Quebec against the Liberals and sponsership scandal. In the short term, it is believed that Canadians do not want to return to the polls, and would likely punish any party that brings down the government without very good reason.

It is also worth noting that, while the average lifespan of a minority government overall is about 18 months, Liberal minorities have historically lasted much longer than Conservative minorities. However, previous Liberal minorites were able to push legislation through with the support of the Progressive Party, and later, the NDP. This will not be the case in the 38th Parliament.

It is a common misconception that the government can be brought down by losing any vote in the House of Commons. In actual fact, only the loss of a Motion of Confidence can force an election or a change of government. If an election were to occur in 2005, it would most likely follow one of the mandatory confidence votes. The first of these was the vote on estimates in December 2004. The 2005 federal budget would have been a more likely time for the government to lose a vote of confidence. The federal budget was presented in February, but the government was not defeated. In Canada's last minority parliament, the 31st Canadian parliament under Prime Minister Joe Clark, the government was brought down on the budget's confidence motion.

If the government believed that its popularity had improved significantly since the last election, it could have added measures to the budget that would be unacceptable to the opposition and thus forced an election. Instead, the Liberal government tabled a budget that the opposition Conservaties deemed acceptable, thus ensuring its passage.

An election in 2005 would involve the same 308 electoral districts as in 2004, except for in New Brunswick, where the boundaries of Acadie-Bathurst were deemed illegal. Many of the candidates would also be the same. Few incumbents would choose to leave, and the parties have blocked challenges to sitting MPs for the duration of the minority government.

Issues

Issues that are likely to play a major role in any new election

• Sponsorship scandal: This issue continues to be a hinderance for the governing Liberals. The Liberals are currently being attacked and will undoubtedly continue to be hammered by the opposition on this issue, particularly by the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois, especially after court hearings in early 2005.
• Health care: This is a perennial top issue in Canada. Prime Minister Paul Martin increased funding for health care in 2004 by $41 billion, however there are many debates resulting from the announcement. Quebec agreed to a separate deal and that may not be popular in other parts of Canada. In addition, many on the political right, who want a true two-tier system, and left, who want a completely socialized system with absolutely no private influence, are unhappy over the amount of public influence in the system.
• Social issues: While traditionally a non-issue in Canada, the results from the U.S. election of 2004 could motivate the Christian Right, primarily in the rural areas, and bring issues like abortion and same-sex marriage to the forefront, especially after a likely passage of the same-sex marriage bill in early 2005. Many Conservatives are pro-life, and the large majority oppose legal recognition of same-sex marriage, while the Liberals are divided on these issues, with more supporters than opponents. Most of the Bloc Quebecois and most New Democrats are strongly pro-choice and are strong supporters of same-sex marriage.
• Fiscal imbalance: All major parties except the Liberals claim that there was a fiscal imbalance between Ottawa and the provinces and speak of plans to reduce it. The Bloc Québécois is the most vocal party on this issue. Several provincial governments have also spoken out on the issue.
• Taxation: For the Conservatives, significantly lowering taxes to stimulate the economy is a central issue. In 2004, the Conservatives promised to end "corporate welfare" and replace it with tax cuts for all businesses. The Liberals, the Bloc Québécois and the NDP opposed large tax cuts, and argued that money should instead be spent to improve social programs. Huge surpluses ($9.1 billion in 2004) have increased the appetite for tax cuts. The 2005 budget implemented relatively modest tax cuts which have been denounced by both the right (who demanded much greater tax relief) and the left (who believed corporations and higher-income Canadians should have to pay higher taxes)
• Parliamentary reform: The Conservatives accused the Liberals of perpetuating "undemocratic practices" in Parliament, by limiting the powers of MPs. Martin called for some reform, but it never materialized. The Conservatives promised an elected Senate and standing committee and provincial review of judicial appointments. The NDP spoke of abolishing the Canadian Senate - all parties claim to want to reform it. The appointments of nine Senators on March 24, 2005 has intensified the debate.
• Electoral reform: The Conservatives promised fixed election dates. The NDP and the Green Party promote the idea of proportional representation voting -- these parties win a considerably smaller proportion of seats in the House of Commons than of the popular vote under the current first past the post system. Meanwhile, referenda will be held in British Columbia in May 2005 on using single transferable vote in future provincial elections and in November 2005 in Prince Edward Island on using mixed proportional representation. Ontario is also considering such reforms. Changes at the provincial level will put pressure on the federal government to make similar changes.
• National Missile Defence: The Bush administration in the U.S. wants Canada to join the missile shield. Many Conservatives strongly support such a plan, while the Bloc, the NDP and many Liberals oppose it. Prime Minister Martin announced in February 2005 that Canada will not join the missile shield; that has upset some Liberals who supported missile defence.
• Gun registry: Many Conservatives strongly oppose the gun registry while the other parties generally support it. A few Liberal backbenchers have spoken against the registry.
• Parliament stability: Public opinion polls suggest that any new election held soon will result in another minority government. This may reduce the appetite for a new election and punish whoever forced the election.
• Canada-US relations: This issue has divided Canada more than ever since the 2003 Invasion of Iraq. Most Conservatives believe that closer relations with the United States (such as a North American security perimeter) are necessary for economic and political reasons. Most of the Bloc and NDP believe that Canada needs to move away from the US, especially with the re-election of Bush in 2004. The Liberals are deeply split.

Candidates

Cabinet Ministers, Speaker and Deputy Speakers of the House, Parliamentary Secretaries and Leaders are in Bold, incumbents running again are in italics and those not running for re-election have a dagger next to them.

Territories

British Columbia

Alberta

Saskatchewan

Manitoba

Ontario

Québec

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Newfoundland & Labrador

National

Notes:

"Before" refers to standings in the House of Commons at dissolution, and not to standings at the previous election.

Timeline

2004

• November 18 - Outspoken Liberal MP Carolyn Parrish was dismissed from the Liberal caucus by Prime Minister Martin for making statements critical of the Liberal Party and the prime minister. She now sits as an independent.

• December 16 - Liberal MP Lawrence O'Brien died of cancer. A by-election in his riding, Labrador, has not yet been called.

2005

• February 23 - Finance Minister Ralph Goodale presents the 2005 federal budget to the Canadian House of Commons. The Conservatives abstained on the vote, which was held on March 9, ensuring the government's survival for the time-being.
• March 31 - Testimony by Jean Brault, former president of Groupaction at the Gomery Commission is considered so damaging to the Liberals that many speculate that an election may be held soon. The details of the testimony are not publically revealed due to a publication ban imposed by Mr. Justice Gomery.

External links

• Nodice Elections: Canada

• Canadian federal elections