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2018 Alaska gubernatorial election

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For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

2018 Alaska gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
Turnout49.8%
 
Nominee Mike Dunleavy Mark Begich
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kevin Meyer Debra Call
Popular vote 145,631 125,739
Percentage 51.44% 44.41%
Borough and census area results State house district results Precinct resultsDunleavy:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Begich:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
Governor before election

Bill Walker
Independent

Elected Governor

Mike Dunleavy
Republican

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The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for governor and lieutenant governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party. Incumbent Independent governor Bill Walker was seeking re-election in what was originally a three-way race between Walker, Republican former Alaska state senator Mike Dunleavy, and Democratic former Alaska U.S. Senator Mark Begich. Despite Walker dropping out on October 19, 2018, and endorsing Begich, Dunleavy won in what was the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018. As of 2024, this was the last time the Governor's office in Alaska changed partisan control. Walker later unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Alaska in 2022.

Independents

Governor

Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Withdrew

  • Byron Mallott (Democratic), incumbent lieutenant governor until October 16
  • Valerie Davidson (Independent), incumbent lieutenant governor since October 16

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017 the AKDP sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018. This move was widely thought to benefit incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, to foreclose the possibility of a Democratic nominee splitting the vote with Walker against a Republican nominee. However, with the entry of former senator Mark Begich into the race, Walker withdrew from the Democratic primary and forged ahead with a fully independent bid for reelection.

Governor

Declared

  • Mark Begich (Democratic), former U.S. senator
  • William S. "Billy" Toien (Libertarian), Libertarian candidate for Alaska Governor in 2010

Polling

Hypothetical polling

with Mark Begich

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Begich 		Les
Gara 		Chris
Tuck 		Bill
Wielechowski 		Undecided
Harstad Strategic Research March 22 – April 2, 2017 205 ± 2.2% 42% 15% 3% 8% 32%
– 25% 5% 19% 51%
49% – 5% 12% 34%
43% 15% – 8% 34%
44% 19% 4% – 32%

Endorsements

Results

Results by state house district:   Begich—80–90%   Begich—70–80%   Begich—60–70%
Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Begich 33,451 85.3
Libertarian William Toien 5,790 14.8
Total votes 39,241 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Declared

  • Debra Call (Democratic), Cook Inlet Tribal Council Board of Directors Representative

Withdrawn

Results

Results by state house district:   Call—80–90%   Call—70–80%   Call—60–70%
Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Debra Call 34,291 100.0
Total votes 34,291 100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Dorian Colbry
  • Thomas A. "Tom" Gordon
  • Gerald Heikes, perennial candidate
  • Merica Hlatcu
  • Michael Sheldon
  • Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Dunleavy 		Scott
Hawkins 		Mead
Treadwell 		Other Undecided
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) June 5–7, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 46% 7% 19% 3% 25%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		John
Binkley 		Mike
Dunleavy 		Peter
Miccici 		Joe
Miller 		Bill
Walker 		Other Undecided
Harstad Strategic Research March 22 – April 2, 2017 281 ± 2.2% 7% 6% 4% 25% 19% 3% 36%
9% 8% 6% 29% – 4% 46%
8% 10% 5% – 25% 4% 48%
– – – 33% 21% – 46%

Results

Results by state house district:   Dunleavy—80–90%   Dunleavy—70–80%   Dunleavy—60–70%   Dunleavy—50–60%   Dunleavy—40–50%   Dunleavy—30–40%   Treadwell—40–50%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Dunleavy 43,802 61.5
Republican Mead Treadwell 22,780 32.0
Republican Michael Sheldon 1,640 2.3
Republican Merica Hlatcu 1,064 1.5
Republican Thomas Gordon 884 1.4
Republican Gerald Heikes 499 0.7
Republican Darin Colbry 416 0.6
Total votes 71,195 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Declared

  • Lynn Gattis, former state representative and candidate for the state senate in 2016
  • Edie Grunwald, retired air force colonel and former human resources director for the Alaska National Guard
  • Sharon Jackson, activist and former congressional staffer
  • Kevin Meyer, state senator and former president of the Alaska Senate
  • Gary Stevens, state senator
  • Stephen Wright, air force veteran

Declined

Results

Results by state house district:   Meyer—50–60%   Meyer—40–50%   Meyer—30–40%   Meyer—<30%   Grunwald—<30%   Grunwald—30–40%   Grunwald—40–50%   Stevens—<30%   Stevens—50–60%   Jackson—<30%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin Meyer 23,838 35.8
Republican Edie Grunwald 18,097 27.1
Republican Gary Stevens 8,123 12.2
Republican Lynn Gattis 6,156 10.4
Republican Sharon Jackson 5,394 8.1
Republican Stephen Wright 4,321 6.5
Total votes 66,671 100.0

General election

Campaign

Independent candidate and incumbent governor Bill Walker announced on October 19 that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mark Begich, three days after Walker's running mate and incumbent lieutenant governor Byron Mallott resigned from office (and amid low polling numbers just three weeks before election day). However, Walker and Mallott still remained on the ballot as the deadline to withdraw was on September 4.

Debates

Dates Location Dunleavy Begich Link
October 25, 2018 Anchorage, Alaska Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Lean R (flip) October 26, 2018
The Washington Post Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report Tilt R (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics Tossup November 4, 2018
Daily Kos Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
Fox News Tossup November 5, 2018
Politico Lean R (flip) November 5, 2018
Governing Tossup November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Mark Begich (D)

Statewide and local politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Mike Dunleavy (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

Federal politicians

State and local politicians

Individuals

Organizations

Alaska Native Corporation

Bill Walker (I) (withdrew) (endorsed Begich)

Organizations

Polling

with Bill Walker (campaign suspended), Mike Dunleavy, and Mark Begich

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Walker (I) 		Mike
Dunleavy (R) 		Mark
Begich (D) 		Billy
Toien (L) 		Other Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 26–29, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 8% 43% 42% 3% – 4%
Alaska Survey Research October 19–22, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 5% 48% 44% – – 3%
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 27% 43% 26% – – 4%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–12, 2018 645 – 24% 43% 23% – – 9%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 27% 47% 23% – – 4%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 23% 44% 29% – – 4%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 26% 36% 24% – 2% 12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) June 22–28, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 28% 36% 22% – – 15%
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 28% 32% 28% – – 12%
Alaska Survey Research June 15–21, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 23% 38% 33% – – 6%

with Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Begich (D) 		Mike
Dunleavy (R) 		Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 52% 4%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 55% 5%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 47% 50% 3%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 46% 44% –
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 50% 41% 9%
Alaska Survey Research March 25–29, 2018 761 ± 3.6% 53% 42% 5%
Hypothetical polling

with Bill Walker and Mike Dunleavy

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Walker (I) 		Mike
Dunleavy (R) 		Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 52% 2%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 43% 53% 4%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 54% 5%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 47% 43% –
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 49% 40% 11%
Alaska Survey Research March 25–29, 2018 761 ± 3.6% 51% 44% 5%
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) February 26 – March 4, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 41% 47% 12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) February 20–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 36% 33% 31%

with Bill Walker and Mark Begich

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Walker (I) 		Mark
Begich (D) 		Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 43% 42% 16%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 41% 18%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 40% 46% 15%

Results

2018 Alaska gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Dunleavy 145,631 51.44% +5.56%
Democratic Mark Begich 125,739 44.41% +44.41%
Independent Bill Walker (incumbent; withdrawn) 5,757 2.03% −46.07%
Libertarian William Toien 5,402 1.91% −1.30%
Write-in 605 0.21% −0.11%
Total votes 283,134 100.00% N/A
Turnout 284,891 49.82%
Registered electors 571,851
Republican gain from Independent

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Republican

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Democratic

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes

References

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  2. Juneau, Andrew Kitchenman, Alaska Public Media & KTOO - (April 5, 2018). "Yes, independents can run in Democratic primary, says Alaska Supreme Court". Retrieved May 22, 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
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  7. Kelly, Caroline. "Alaska Gov. Bill Walker suspends re-election bid". CNN. Retrieved November 8, 2018.
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  9. Bohrer, Becky (June 2, 2018). "Former Sen. Begich to challenge Walker for Alaska governor". Associated Press.
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  20. "Breaking: Hawkins files for governor; focus will be on economy, dividends, crime - Must Read Alaska". Must Read Alaska. September 21, 2017. Retrieved September 25, 2017.
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  24. Herz, Nathaniel (June 11, 2018). "Frank Murkowski seriously considered running for Alaska governor again". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved May 10, 2021.
  25. "Letter of Intent Form". aws.state.ak.us. Retrieved September 12, 2017.
  26. Buxton, Matt (June 16, 2016). "Former Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan withdraws from U.S. Senate race". Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. Retrieved July 19, 2016.
  27. "ADN reports Ben Stevens contemplating run for Governor". Alaska Dispatch News & KINY Radio. August 20, 2017. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
  28. Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska)
  29. Harstad Strategic Research
  30. Mike Chennault 3%
  31. ^ Mike Chennault 4%
  32. "Lynn Gattis files for lieutenant governor - Must Read Alaska". Must Read Alaska. August 4, 2017. Retrieved September 5, 2017.
  33. Hickman, Matt (September 21, 2017). "Grunwald, mother of murdered Palmer teen, joins race for Lt. Governor". Alaska Frontiersman. Retrieved December 9, 2017.
  34. Downing, Suzanne (April 12, 2018). "GOP Sharon Jackson files for lieutenant governor". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
  35. Maguire, Sean (September 7, 2017). "State Senator Kevin Meyer files to be candidate for Lt. Governor, no running mate in mind". KTUU-TV. Retrieved September 8, 2017.
  36. Desroches, Kayla (August 1, 2017). "State Sen. Gary Stevens files to run for lieutenant governor". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved September 8, 2017.
  37. Brooks, James (August 2, 2017). "Kodiak senator is first to seek lieutenant governor's office". Juneau Empire. Retrieved September 8, 2017.
  38. "They are running on principle – just ask them". March 15, 2018.
  39. Manning, Phillip (July 19, 2017). "Senator David Wilson files for lieutenant governor race". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved September 5, 2017.
  40. Manning, Phillip (July 20, 2017). "Senator David Wilson says he's not running for Lt. Governor, he filed by accident". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved September 5, 2017.
  41. Baird, Austin (July 20, 2017). "Freshman senator launches bid for lieutenant governor, scraps campaign a day later". KTUU-TV. Retrieved September 5, 2017.
  42. "Heads and Tails: Campaigns, fundraisers, gaffes, and galas - Must Read Alaska". Must Read Alaska. August 8, 2017. Retrieved September 5, 2017.
  43. Hanlon, Tegan (October 19, 2018). "Gov. Bill Walker drops out of campaign for Alaska governor". Anchorage Daily News.
  44. Johnson, Kirk (October 19, 2018). "Bill Walker, Governor of Alaska, Suspends Campaign Amid Sinking Polls". The New York Times. Retrieved October 19, 2018.
  45. Zak, Annie; Hanlon, Tegan (September 4, 2018). "Under pressure to withdraw, Begich reaffirms plan to stay in Alaska governor's race". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved October 21, 2018.
  46. "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
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  58. Walker, Rhiannon (September 18, 2018). "Former First Lady Bella Hammond endorses Begich". webcenter11.com.
  59. Beltrami, Vince (October 22, 2018). "Alaska AFL-CIO Endorses Mark Begich for Governor". Alaska AFL–CIO. Archived from the original on October 25, 2018. Retrieved October 25, 2018.
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  65. Donald J. Trump. ".@MikeDunleavyGov will make a fantastic Governor of Alaska. Mike is for Energy and Jobs, is tough on Crime, loves our Vets and our Great Second Amendment. Mike has my Complete and Total Endorsement!". Twitter.
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  70. Craig Richards (November 5, 2018). "Opinion: Begich would tax, Dunleavy, cut. Whoever wins will have to act fast". Juneau Empire.
  71. Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "Thrilled to have the endorsement of my colleague, Senator MacKinnon. Thank you Anna for your support!". Facebook.
  72. Suzanne Downing (May 16, 2018). "Dunleavy signs three as state campaign co-chairs". Must Read Alaska.
  73. Suzanne Downing (March 5, 2018). "Dunleavy gets a big endorsement from …". Must Read Alaska.
  74. Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "I am honored to receive the endorsement of General Joe Ralston. He has been trusted with leading the Alaskan Command, NATO, and serving on the Joint Chiefs. His trust in me is humbling and inspiring". Facebook.
  75. Suzanne Downing (November 2, 2018). "Mao Tosi throws support to Dunleavy". Must Read Alaska.
  76. Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "Many of us live in Alaska for the unmatched sporting opportunities. I'm proud to earn the endorsement of the Sportsmen's Conservation Alliance, which works to preserve Alaska's fishing, hunting and trapping outdoor heritage traditions". Facebook.
  77. Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "The Alaska Outdoor Council works tirelessly for the preservation of outdoor pursuits in Alaska, and conservation of the habitats upon which they depend. I am proud to receive their endorsement in the primary". Facebook.
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  79. Suzanne Downing (October 31, 2018). "Alaska Forestry Association endorses Dunleavy". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on November 1, 2018.
  80. "NRA Endorses Mike Dunleavy for Governor" (PDF). Alaskans for Dunleavy. September 26, 2018. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 14, 2018. Retrieved October 13, 2018.
  81. Anna Rose MacArthur (October 23, 2018). "Calista Switches Endorsement To Dunleavy After Walker Drops Out Of Governor's Race". KYUK. Archived from the original on October 24, 2018.
  82. "Arctic Slope Regional Corporation Endorses Mike Dunleavy for Governor" (PDF). Alaskans for Dunleavy. October 26, 2018. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 31, 2018. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
  83. "Centrist Project endorses Gov. Bill Walker (I-AK)". Archived from the original on October 13, 2017. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  84. Zak, Annie (August 25, 2018). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Gov. Walker for re-election". Anchorage Daily News.
  85. Zak, Annie (August 27, 2018). "NEA-Alaska endorses Walker for re-election". Anchorage Daily News.
  86. Alaska Survey Research
  87. Alaska Survey Research
  88. ^ Alaska Survey Research
  89. Public Policy Polling (D)
  90. ^ Alaska Survey Research
  91. ^ Alaska Survey Research
  92. ^ Harstad Strategic Research
  93. Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker)
  94. ^ Harstad Strategic Research (D)
  95. Alaska Survey Research
  96. Alaska Survey Research
  97. Alaska Survey Research
  98. Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska)
  99. Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker)
  100. "2018 General Elections. Official results". elections.alaska.gov. Retrieved February 19, 2023.

External links

Official gubernatorial campaign websites

Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites

Alaska Division of Elections

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