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2025 Australian federal election

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(Redirected from Next Australian federal election) Election for the 48th Parliament of Australia

2025 Australian federal election

← 2022 On or before 17 May 2025 (half-Senate)
On or before 27 September 2025 (House)
2028 →

All 150 seats in the House of Representatives
76 seats are needed for a majority
40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate
Opinion polls
  Anthony Albanese portrait (cropped).jpg Peter Dutton May 2018.jpg Adam-Bandt-profile-2021 (Cropped).png
Leader Anthony Albanese Peter Dutton Adam Bandt
Party Labor Liberal/National coalition Greens
Leader since 30 May 2019 (2019-05-30) 30 May 2022 (2022-05-30) 4 February 2020 (2020-02-04)
Leader's seat Grayndler (NSW) Dickson (Qld) Melbourne (Vic)
Last election 77 seats 58 seats 4 seats
Current seats 78 55 4
Seats needed Steady Increase 21 Increase 72

Results by division for the House of Representatives.

Incumbent Prime Minister

Anthony Albanese
Labor




2025 Australian federal election
National results
State and territory results

The 2025 Australian federal election will be held on or before 17 May 2025 (for half the Senate), or be held on or before 27 September 2025 (for the House) to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. 150 (as opposed to 151 in previous elections) seats in the House of Representatives and likely 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate will be contested. It is expected that at this election, the Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be seeking re-election to a second term in office, opposed by the Liberal/National Coalition under Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton, and minor parties such as the Greens and independents.

Background

Previous election

Main article: 2022 Australian federal election See also: Results of the 2022 Australian federal election (House of Representatives) and Results of the 2022 Australian federal election (Senate)

At the previous election in May 2022, the Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese, formed government after nine years in opposition, winning 77 seats in the House of Representatives, enough for a two-seat majority. The LiberalNational Coalition that had previously governed won only 58 seats and went into opposition. Meanwhile, the crossbench, made up of other parties and independents, expanded to 16 seats; four held by the Greens, one each by Centre Alliance and Katter's Australian Party and the remaining 10 by independents.

In the Senate, Labor made no gains and remained steady at 26 seats overall, whilst the Coalition lost some seats and retained only 32 seats. The Greens made gains and increased their share of seats to 12. One Nation also remained steady at 2 seats, Centre Alliance and Rex Patrick Team each lost their sole Senate seat, while the Jacqui Lambie Network gained a second seat. David Pocock was also elected as an independent Senator, while the United Australia Party also gained a Senate seat. This meant Labor required 13 additional votes to pass legislation.

Composition of parliament

See also: 47th Parliament of Australia § Changes in membership

The 47th Parliament opened on 26 July 2022. The Liberal Party entered the parliament with a new leader, with former defence and home affairs minister Peter Dutton replacing the outgoing prime minister Scott Morrison.

On 23 December 2022, Nationals MP for Calare Andrew Gee left the party and became an Independent, following the party's decision to publicly oppose an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. This meant that the Crossbench increased to 17 seats with the Coalition decreasing to 57 seats.

On 16 January 2023, Liberal Senator Jim Molan died, he was replaced by Maria Kovacic in May that year.

On 6 February 2023, Greens Senator Lidia Thorpe resigned from the party to sit as an Independent.

On 1 April 2023, Labor's Mary Doyle won the 2023 Aston by-election following the resignation of sitting Liberal MP Alan Tudge. The result was considered a massive upset and marked the first time that an incumbent government won a seat from the Opposition since the 1920 Kalgoorlie by-election. As a result, Labor increased their number of seats in the House of Representatives to 78, while the Coalition decreased to 56.

In May 2023, incumbent Liberal National MP Stuart Robert resigned, triggering another by-election, this time in the seat of Fadden on the Gold Coast. The seat was won by Liberal National candidate Cameron Caldwell, keeping the composition of the parliament unchanged. Also in May 2023, Dai Le, the independent member for the seat of Fowler in Western Sydney, formed her own political party, the Dai Le and Frank Carbone Network, alongside Frank Carbone, the Mayor of Fairfield. The party will be primarily based in Western Sydney.

On 15 June 2023, Liberal senator David Van was expelled from the party following sexual misconduct allegations by former LNP Senator Amanda Stoker and Independent Senator Lidia Thorpe, continuing his term as an Independent. On 14 November 2023, following a party preselection defeat, Liberal MP Russell Broadbent left the party to sit on the crossbench. November also saw Dave Sharma return to parliament this time as a Liberal Senator, after the resignation of party veteran Marise Payne.

On 4 December 2023, Labor MP Peta Murphy died of cancer, reducing Labor to 77 seats, though the party's share was restored to 78 seats on 2 March 2024, when candidate Jodie Belyea retained the seat of Dunkley at the by-election. Similarly the Liberal Party fell by one seat on 28 February 2024, when former prime minister and MP Scott Morrison resigned from the seat of Cook, though Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy retained the seat for the party at the April 2024 by-election.

Labor Senator Pat Dodson resigned from the Senate in January 2024 while undergoing cancer treatment; his vacancy was filled by Varun Ghosh. Senator Linda White of Labor died in March 2024 and was replaced by Lisa Darmanin, while Greens senator Janet Rice resigned the following month and was replaced by Steph Hodgins-May. Party-compositional changes occurred when Senator Tammy Tyrrell quit the Jacqui Lambie Network to sit as an independent on 28 March 2024, and Labor senator Fatima Payman left the party and joined the crossbench as an independent in July 2024, citing disagreement with the party's position concerning the Israel-Gaza conflict. Three months later Payman established Australia's Voice party, stating she intended the party to field candidates in both houses of parliament at this election. The Senate composition changed once again on 25 August 2024 when Liberal National Senator Gerard Rennick resigned from the party and moved to the crossbench to sit as an independent following a preselection defeat. Like Payman, he too announced his intention to establish a political party, named the People First Party, in order to have his name featured above the line on the election ballot paper.

Events of the 47th Parliament

See also: 47th Parliament of Australia § Major events and legislation

As of November 2024, both major parties have retained their leaders throughout the duration of the 47th Parliament, with Anthony Albanese expected to have served one full term as Prime Minister and a second consecutive term as leader of the Labor Party, while Peter Dutton is on track to complete his first full term as Opposition Leader and leader of the Liberal Party. The Albanese ministry was reshuffled once in July 2024, while the shadow ministry of Peter Dutton was reshuffled twice in April 2023 and March 2024.

The 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum featured prominently in political discourse during the first half of the parliamentary term. First proposed in the 2017 Uluru Statement from the Heart, an Indigenous Voice to Parliament was supported by the Labor Party as part of its 2022 election platform. The 'Yes' campaign in support of the Voice initially attracted some bipartisan support, including Coalition figures such as the aforementioned Andrew Gee, former Minister for Indigenous Australians Ken Wyatt, and then-Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians Julian Leeser. However, the National Party came out against the Voice in November 2022, as did the Liberal Party in April 2023. Newly elected Country Liberal Party Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, who succeeded Leeser as Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians, took on a prominent role in the 'No' campaign. In August 2023, Albanese announced the referendum would be held on 14 October 2023. 60% of voters, including a majority in all six states, voted against the proposed constitutional changes.

The death and state funeral of Elizabeth II, the long-serving head of state of Australia and other Commonwealth realms, took place in September 2022, followed by the coronation of Charles III and Camilla in May 2023. Charles visited Australia in October 2024, the first visit by a ruling monarch since 2011. Independent Senator Lidia Thorpe, who had resigned from the Greens in February 2023 over disagreements regarding the proposed Voice to Parliament, attracted significant media attention for shouting at Charles during an event at Parliament House in Canberra.

Israel–Hamas war protests in Australia began in October 2023; responses to the war, particularly among local Jewish and Muslim communities, were perceived as a significant threat to peaceful discourse in Australia. Incidents of antisemitism and Islamophobia also increased, prompting the government to appoint three "special envoys": in July 2024, Jillian Segal as Special Envoy to Combat Antisemitism, and Labor MP Peter Khalil as Special Envoy for Social Cohesion; and in September 2024, Aftab Malik as Special Envoy to Combat Islamophobia.

Climate change also remained a prominent issue, partly due to the impact of natural disasters, including the 2022 south eastern Australia floods and the 2023–24 Australian bushfire season, which led to seven deaths and ten deaths respectively, as well as Cyclone Jasper, which caused significant property damage in Far North Queensland in December 2023.

Changes to government infrastructure included: the establishment of the National Anti-Corruption Commission in July 2023; the launch of the Housing Australia Future Fund in November 2023; the replacement of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal with the Administrative Review Tribunal in October 2024; and the passage of the Online Safety Amendment Bill in November 2024.

Electoral system

Members of the House of Representatives are elected by full preferential voting. Each electorate elects one member.

Senators are elected by single transferable vote and proportional representation. In states senators are elected from state-wide twelve-member districts (although in most cases only six seats are contested at a single election), and in territories from territory-wide two-member districts.

Ballots are counted at least twice, at the polling place and, starting Monday night after election day, at counting centres.

Current standings

Parties are listed according to their vote share at the last federal election

Affiliation House Senate
Results of the
2022 election
As of
9 October 2024
Change Results of the
2022 election
As of
9 October 2024
Change
Labor 77 78 Increase 1 26 25 Decrease 1
Coalition 58 55 Decrease 3 32 30 Decrease 2
The Greens 4 4 Steady 0 12 11 Decrease 1
One Nation 0 0 Steady 0 2 2 Steady 0
United Australia 0 0 Steady 0 1 1 Steady 0
Katter's Australian 1 1 Steady 0 0 0 Steady 0
Centre Alliance 1 1 Steady 0 0 0 Steady 0
Lambie Network 0 0 Steady 0 2 1 Decrease 1
Australia's Voice - 0 Steady 0 - 1 Increase 1
Independents 10 12 Increase 2 1 5 Increase 4
Total seats 151 76

State of electorates

Redistribution

See also: Divisions of the Australian House of Representatives and Redistribution (Australia)

The Australian Electoral Commission is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new House of Representatives, to determine the number of members to which each State and Territory is entitled. If the number in any state changes, a redistribution will be required in those states. A redistribution will be postponed if it would begin within one year of the expiration of the House of Representatives.

The apportionment determination was made in July 2023 based on the population figures for December 2022. The determination resulted in a reduction of one seat in New South Wales to 46, a reduction of one seat in Victoria to 38 and an increase of one seat in Western Australia to 16. The total number of seats in the House of Representatives will decrease from 151 to 150 at the 2025 federal election.

In May and June 2024, the Australian Electoral Commission released its draft proposals for electorate changes, recommending the creation of the Division of Bullwinkel (Western Australia) in the outer eastern suburbs of Perth, and the abolition of the Division of Higgins (Victoria) in Melbourne's inner south-east (held by Labor's Michelle Ananda-Rajah) and the Division of North Sydney (New South Wales) in Sydney's inner north-east (held by teal independent Kylea Tink). In addition, the commission proposed altering the boundaries of several seats in all three states.

The Western Australia and Victoria-based changes were confirmed by the commission on 5 September 2024, with the new boundaries gazetted on 24 September and 17 October respectively. The New South Wales changes were confirmed on 12 September and were gazetted on 10 October 2024. According to Antony Green, some of the more significant changes to existing electorates included: the Division of Hasluck, losing much of its area to the new seat of Bullwinkel and shifting westwards into Perth's northeastern suburbs; in Melbourne, the Divisions of Melbourne and Wills moving to the south, and the Divisions of Chisholm and Menzies moving westwards; the Division of Riverina shifting south-east and losing the towns of Parkes and Forbes; and the Division of Hume losing the majority of its area in the south, including the town of Goulburn. There was also a small adjustment to the Northern Territory's two federal electorates, with the Division of Solomon gaining some of the eastern suburbs of Palmerston from the Division of Lingiari.

Voter registration

Enrolment of eligible voters is compulsory. Voters must notify the AEC within 8 weeks of a change of address or after turning 18. The electoral rolls are closed for new enrolments or update of details about a week after the issue of writs for election. Enrolment is optional for 16 or 17-year-olds, but they cannot vote until they turn 18, and persons who have applied for Australian citizenship may also apply for provisional enrolment which takes effect on the granting of citizenship.

Election date

See also: Electoral system of Australia § Election day
Election type Earliest date Latest date
Double dissolution
(requires trigger)
29 March 2025

Simultaneous half-Senate and House of Representatives

25 January 2025 17 May 2025
Half-Senate
House of Representatives 27 September 2025

The election of senators must take place within one year before the terms expire for half-Senate elections, so that the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2024. Since campaigns are for a minimum of 33 days, as of 17 December 2024, the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is Saturday, 25 January 2025. The latest that a half-Senate election could be held must allow time for the votes to be counted and the writs to be returned before the newly elected senators take office on 1 July 2025. The previous election's writs were returned on 24 June 2022, 34 days after the 2022 federal election. Using this time frame, the last possible date for a half-Senate election to take place is Saturday 17 May 2025.

A double dissolution (a deadlock-breaking provision to dissolve both houses of parliament) cannot be called within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives. That means that any double dissolution of the 47th Parliament would have had to be granted by 25 January 2025. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election would be 29 March 2025. This can only occur if a bill that passes the House of Representatives is rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart.

The constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:

  • Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State."
  • Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.
  • Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General." Since the 47th Parliament of Australia opened on 26 July 2022, it will expire on 25 July 2025.
  • Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof." Ten days after 25 July 2025 is 4 August 2025.
  • Section 156(1) of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ." Twenty-seven days after 4 August 2025 is 31 August 2025.
  • Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination." Thirty-one days after 31 August 2025 is 1 October 2025, a Wednesday.
  • Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday." The Saturday before 1 October 2025 is 27 September 2025, which is the latest possible date for the lower house election.

On 5 September 2024, during former leader of the Labor Party and current Minister for National Disability Insurance Scheme and Government Services Bill Shorten's announcement of his impending resignation, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese suggested that he may schedule the election to be held at a date later than Shorten's departure from Parliament in February 2025, while noting that the election is due by May 2025. In November 2024, while announcing candidates for the election, Albanese told reporters that it would be held in April or earlier.

Candidates

Main article: Candidates of the 2025 Australian federal election

Retiring members

Labor

Liberal

Nationals

Independent

  • Kylea Tink MP (North Sydney, NSW) – announced retirement on 7 December 2024, following abolition of her seat

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election

Primary vote

Local regression graph of polls conducted since the 2022 election

Two-party preferred

Local regression graph of polls conducted since the 2022 election

See also

Notes

  1. Labor gained the seat of Aston from the Liberals at a by-election in 2023.
  2. In 2022, Andrew Gee (MP for Calare) left the National Party. In 2023, the Liberal Party lost the seat of Aston to Labor at a by-election. In November 2023, Russell Broadbent (MP for Monash) left the Liberal Party following his preselection loss.
  3. Fatima Payman was elected as a Labor Senator, but left the party in 2024; in October 2024 she established Australia's Voice.
  4. Includes David Pocock, who was elected on an Independent Senate Platform for the ACT, however for ballot purposes, he registered an eponymous party for which he was one of 2 candidates.

References

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  34. ^ Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act (Cth) s 13
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  41. Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act (Cth) s 12
  42. Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act (Cth) s 28
  43. Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act (Cth) s 32
  44. Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (Cth) s 156
  45. Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (Cth) s 157
  46. Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (Cth) s 158
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