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Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand general election

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Opinion polls in New Zealand

Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–2023) for the 2023 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The current parliament was elected on 17 October 2020. The general election took place on 14 October 2023.

Party vote

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Smoothing is set to span 65%.
Opinion polls grouped by main blocs.

Nationwide polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties shown in the table are Labour (LAB), National (NAT), Green (GRN), ACT, Māori (TPM), New Zealand First (NZF), Opportunities (TOP), New Conservative (NCP), and New Zealand Loyal (NZL). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB NAT GRN ACT TPM NZF TOP NCP Lead
14 Oct 2023 2023 election result N/A 26.92 38.08 11.61 8.64 3.08 6.09 2.22 0.15 11.16
7–10 Oct 2023 1 News–Verian 1,001 28 37 14 9 1.7 6 2.3 – 9
5–10 Oct 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 27.5 34.5 14.9 8.8 2.7 6.8 2.2 – 7
9 Oct 2023 The Port Waikato electorate vote is cancelled after ACT candidate Neil Christensen dies; a replacement by-election will be held on 25 November 2023.
4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023 Roy Morgan 1,250 26 30.5 15 11.5 3 7.5 3.5 - 4.5
4–8 Oct 2023 Guardian Essential 1,200 30.3 34 10.6 7.9 1.9 8.2 – – 3.7
1–4 Oct 2023 Taxpayers' Union-Curia 1,000 27.9 35.9 10.6 9.1 3.7 6.9 2.9 0.7 8
30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 1 News–Verian 1,000 26 36 13 10 2.2 6 1.5 – 10
2 Oct 2023 Advance voting for the 2023 general election begins.
22–28 Sep 2023 Talbot Mills 1,027 27 38 13 9 3.1 6.4 2.3 – 11
23–26 Sep 2023 1 News–Verian 1,002 26 36 13 12 1.9 6 1.3 0.6 10
17–23 Sep 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 26.5 39.1 14.2 8.8 2.2 5.2 1.9 1.1 12.6
16–19 Sep 2023 1 News–Verian 1,001 27 37 12 12 2.9 5 1.4 0.1 10
9–12 Sep 2023 1 News–Verian 1,002 28 39 10 10 2.6 5 1.4 0.8 11
6–10 Sep 2023 Guardian Essential 1,154 26.9 34.5 11 10.3 2.5 6 – – 7.6
3–9 Sep 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 26.8 40.9 12.3 10.1 3.1 4.6 0.7 0.8 14.1
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 26.5 35 12.7 14.3 2.9 3.9 2.7 0.8 8.5
28–30 Aug 2023 The Post–Freshwater Strategy 1,511 26 36 12 11 3 6 – – 10
24–30 Aug 2023 Talbot Mills 30 36 12 10 2.4 5.4 1.5 – 6
31 Jul – 27 Aug 2023 Roy Morgan 1,046 24 31 12.5 18 4 5.5 2 – 7
25 Aug 2023 Talbot Mills 32 34 11 10 4 6 – – 2
12–16 Aug 2023 1 News–Verian 1,002 29 37 12 13 2.6 3.7 0.6 0.3 8
3–8 Aug 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 27.1 34.9 12 13 2.5 5.8 1 0.6 7.8
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2023 Talbot Mills 1,012 32 35 10 11 3.1 4.4 1.8 – 3
2–6 Aug 2023 Guardian Essential 1,163 29 34.5 8.5 11.6 2.5 5.3 – – 5.5
26–31 Jul 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 32.3 36.6 9.6 12.1 2.7 4.1 1.5 0.7 4.3
24 Jul 2023 Kiri Allan of the Labour Party resigns as a minister.
26 Jun – 23 Jul 2023 Roy Morgan 937 26 33.5 9 14 6 5 4 – 7.5
8–12 Jul 2023 1 News–Verian 1,000 33 35 10 12 2.8 3.1 1.7 0.4 2
2–10 Jul 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 31.1 33.3 8.9 13.2 5 3.3 0.3 0.4 2.2
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2023 Talbot Mills 1,036 31 36 8 12 4.2 4 2.9 – 5
29 May – 25 Jun 2023 Roy Morgan 955 30.5 30 9.5 15 7 3 3 – 0.5
21 Jun 2023 Michael Wood of the Labour Party resigns as a minister.
30 May – 6 Jun 2023 Talbot Mills 1,001 36 35 7 11 3.65 2.9 – – 1
31 May – 6 Jun 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 32.9 35.7 9.7 12.7 3.5 1.6 0.8 1.3 2.8
20–24 May 2023 1 News–Kantar Public 1,002 35 37 7 11 2.4 3 1.4 0.6 2
24 Apr – 21 May 2023 Roy Morgan 952 31 31.5 12 13.5 4.5 3.5 2 0.5 0.5
18 May 2023 The 2023 Budget is delivered.
12–17 May 2023 Horizon Research 1,563 34.4 26.5 9.5 12.3 4.3 5.3 2.8 1.4 7.9
5–11 May 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 35.9 35.3 8.1 10.8 3.5 3 2 – 0.6
2–7 May 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 33.8 35.6 7 12.7 3.7 2.6 1.7 1.6 1.8
3 May 2023 Meka Whaitiri resigns from the Labour Party and joins Te Pāti Māori.
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 Talbot Mills 1,046 33 36 9 10 4.1 3.4 1.8 – 3
27 Mar – 23 Apr 2023 Roy Morgan 929 30 32 12 12.5 4.5 4.5 2 0.5 2
2–5 Apr 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 36.9 36.5 6.7 9.5 2.9 2.6 0.8 1.7 0.4
30 Mar – 5 Apr 2023 Talbot Mills 36 36 9 10 1.9 3.9 0.8 – Tie
28 Mar 2023 Stuart Nash of the Labour Party is stripped of all his ministerial portfolios.
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2023 Roy Morgan 943 33 32 10.5 13 2 3 3.5 1 1
1–9 Mar 2023 Talbot Mills 1,021 37 34 8 12 3.2 2.9 1.5 – 3
4–8 Mar 2023 1 News–Kantar Public 1,002 36 34 11 11 2.6 3.1 1 0.5 2
2–7 Mar 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 35.5 34.8 5.7 9.3 1.4 4.2 1.7 2.5 0.7
30 Jan – 26 Feb 2023 Roy Morgan 943 33 32 12.5 13.5 3.5 2 2.5 0.5 1
12 Feb 2023 Cyclone Gabrielle begins impacting the North Island
2–9 Feb 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 34.4 34.4 7.8 11.7 2.1 2.9 2 0.8 Tie
26–31 Jan 2023 Talbot Mills 33 36 11 10 3 3.4 2.3 – 3
9–29 Jan 2023 Roy Morgan 948 30 32 12 13.5 4.5 5 1.5 0.5 2
25–29 Jan 2023 1 News–Kantar Public 1,008 38 37 7 10 1.4 2.2 1.1 0.6 1
23–28 Jan 2023 Horizon Research 1,147 35.5 27.7 9 13 4.6 4.5 1.6 1.1 7.8
27 Jan 2023 2023 Auckland Anniversary Weekend floods begin
22–27 Jan 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 38 36.6 8.1 10.7 1.8 2.2 1.5 – 1.4
25 Jan 2023 Chris Hipkins is sworn in as the 41st Prime Minister of New Zealand.
22 Jan 2023 Chris Hipkins is unanimously elected Leader of the Labour Party.
19 Jan 2023 Jacinda Ardern announces her resignation as Prime Minister of New Zealand, taking effect 25 January 2023.
10–16 Jan 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 31.7 37.2 10.6 10.8 1.6 2.8 – – 5.5
Dec 2022 Roy Morgan 947 27.5 35 11 14.5 4 4 2.5 1 7.5
10 Dec 2022 Tama Potaka of the National Party wins the Hamilton West by-election.
1–6 Dec 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 33.1 39.4 8.1 10.4 3.5 2.9 – – 6.3
Dec 2022 Talbot Mills 32 35 9 11 3.5 4.3 2.4 – 3
26–30 Nov 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,011 33 38 9 11 2 3.6 1.7 0.6 5
31 Oct – 27 Nov 2022 Roy Morgan 926 25.5 39 12 11 4 3.5 2.5 0.5 13.5
3–8 Nov 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 35.3 37.6 7.8 9.9 1.6 3.8 2.1 0.9 2.3
31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022 Talbot Mills 34 35 9 10 3.2 4.4 2 – 1
25 Oct – 3 Nov 2022 Newshub–Reid Research 32.3 40.7 9.5 10 1.9 3.3 1.2 – 8.4
20–25 Oct 2022 Horizon Research 1,154 29.7 26.6 13 13.5 2.2 7.2 2 1.8 3.1
26 Sep – 23 Oct 2022 Roy Morgan 951 29 32 15.5 12.5 3 3.5 3 0.5 3
2–11 Oct 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 34.4 39.2 7.2 9.4 2.1 2.1 3.4 1 4.8
|Oct 2022 Talbot Mills 35 35 9 11 2.2 4 – – Tie
29 Aug – 25 Sep 2022 Roy Morgan 942 29.5 36 12.5 12.5 3.5 1 2.5 0.5 6.5
17–21 Sep 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,001 34 37 9 9 1.6 3 1.3 1 3
12 Sep 2022 The COVID-19 Protection Framework officially ends.
1–9 Sep 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 33.4 37 9.9 12.4 1.5 1.6 0.7 1.5 3.6
31 Aug – 7 Sep 2022 Talbot Mills 35 38 8 9 3 – – – 3
25 Jul – 21 Aug 2022 Roy Morgan 947 35 35.5 9 10.5 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5
3–11 Aug 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,200 35.2 34 9.5 11 3.5 2.6 – – 1.2
28 Jul – 8 Aug 2022 Talbot Mills 36 37 9 10 – – – – 1
30 Jul – 3 Aug 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,023 33 37 9 11 2.3 2.6 1.9 0.7 4
29 Jul – 3 Aug 2022 Horizon Research 1,044 34.1 31.4 10.2 10.7 2.2 3.5 1.7 2.7 2.7
Jul 2022 Roy Morgan 937 34 35 10.5 11 4 1.5 2.5 1 1
3–10 Jul 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,200 34.7 37 8.5 10 3.7 2.8 – – 2.3
30 May – 26 Jun 2022 Roy Morgan 947 33.5 39 10 9.5 1.5 1.5 2 0.5 5.5
18 Jun 2022 Sam Uffindell of the National Party wins the Tauranga by-election.
1–12 Jun 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,200 34.2 37.4 8.3 9.4 1.8 2.3 3 1.4 3.2
2–10 Jun 2022 Talbot Mills 1,200 36 35 10 8 3.1 3.3 – – 1
26 Apr – 22 May 2022 Roy Morgan 934 31.5 40 11.5 10 1 3 1 0.5 8.5
21–25 May 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,002 35 39 10 7 1.9 1.3 1.7 1.2 4
19 May 2022 The 2022 Budget is delivered.
4–11 May 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 34.2 36.8 9.7 10.9 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.3 2.6
29 Apr – 10 May 2022 Talbot Mills 37 36 8 7 3 4 – – 1
18–27 Apr 2022 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 38.2 40.5 8.4 6.4 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.7 2.3
28 Mar – 24 Apr 2022 Roy Morgan 918 33.5 37.5 10.5 10 1.5 2.5 2 0.5 4
13 Apr 2022 New Zealand shifts from the Red Light setting to the Orange Light setting of the COVID-19 Protection Framework.
7–13 Apr 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 36.8 37.8 9.4 8.4 3.6 1.7 – – 1
28 Feb – 27 Mar 2022 Roy Morgan 944 32 38 10.5 9 2 4 1.5 0.5 6
2–7, 14–15 Mar 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 36.2 35.3 12.4 11.2 0.2 1.8 0.1 0.6 0.9
5–8 Mar 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,000 37 39 9 8 2.3 2.2 1.3 0.9 2
31 Jan – 27 Feb 2022 Roy Morgan 963 32 38 11 11.5 2 2 1 1 6
1–10 Feb 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 42.3 38.4 6.3 6.6 1 1.5 2 – 3.9
22 Jan – 4 Feb 2022 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 44.3 31.3 9.6 8 2 1.8 1.5 1.1 13
4–30 Jan 2022 Roy Morgan 951 33 35 10.5 13.5 2.5 2.5 1.5 1 2
22–26 Jan 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,000 40 32 9 11 1.6 1.8 1.6 1 8
23 Jan 2022 Nationwide Red Light restrictions are implemented due to the COVID−19 Omicron variant being detected in the community.
10–17 Jan 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 41.2 33 10.7 11.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 – 8.2
22 Nov – 19 Dec 2021 Roy Morgan 967 35.5 31.5 8.5 18.5 1 2 1 0.5 4
1–8 Dec 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 39.5 32.6 10.9 10.6 3 2.3 – – 6.9
2 Dec 2021 New Zealand shifts from the COVID-19 alert level system to the new COVID-19 Protection Framework system.
30 Nov 2021 Christopher Luxon is elected Leader of the National Party with Nicola Willis as his deputy.
25 Nov 2021 Judith Collins loses the National Party leadership.
25 Oct – 21 Nov 2021 Roy Morgan 951 36 26.5 10.5 17.5 3 2.5 1.5 1 9.5
10–17 Nov 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 42.7 26.9 7.2 16 2.1 2.5 1.2 0.9 15.8
6–10 Nov 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,001 41 28 9 14 0.9 3.3 1.2 1 13
1–8 Nov 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 39.3 26.2 8.6 15.9 2.3 1.7 – – 13.1
29 Oct – 3 Nov 2021 Labour–Talbot Mills 1,023 41 24 9 17 2.4 4.2 – – 17
27 Sep – 24 Oct 2021 Roy Morgan 929 39.5 26 10.5 16 2 2.5 1 1.5 13.5
3–11 Oct 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 44.8 22.5 6.4 16.6 1.5 3.6 – – 22.3
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021 Labour–Talbot Mills 1,200+ 46 22 7 16 1.9 3.8 – – 24
30 Aug – 26 Sep 2021 Roy Morgan 940 45.5 23 9.5 16 2 1.5 1.5 – 22.5
22–26 Sep 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,001 43 26 8 14 2.1 2.5 1.2 1.3 17
5–9 Sep 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 45.8 21.3 9.6 14.9 1.2 2.7 – – 24.5
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2021 Labour–Talbot Mills 1,050 45 26 6 13 2 4.1 – – 19
26 Jul – 22 Aug 2021 Roy Morgan 940 39.5 25 12 13 2.5 2.5 2 – 14.5
17 Aug 2021 Nationwide Level 4 restrictions are implemented due to the COVID−19 Delta variant being detected in the community.
21 Jul – 1 Aug 2021 Labour–Talbot Mills 1,216 43 28 7 13 1.7 4.4 – – 15
22–29 Jul 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 43 28.7 8.5 11.1 1.9 3.4 0.8 1.6 14.3
28 Jun – 25 Jul 2021 Roy Morgan 945 39.5 29 10 13 2.5 2 3 – 10.5
24 Jun – 1 Jul 2021 Labour–Talbot Mills 1,199 48 24 8 11 1.5 5 – – 24
31 May – 27 Jun 2021 Roy Morgan 927 38.5 29.5 12.5 11.5 2.5 1.5 2 – 9
22–26 May 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,002 46 29 8 9 1.8 1.2 1.8 1.5 17
26 Apr – 23 May 2021 Roy Morgan 932 45 28.5 11 9 1.5 2 1.5 – 16.5
20 May 2021 The 2021 Budget is delivered.
7–13 May 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 52.7 27 7.1 6.9 1.2 1.9 1.3 1.2 25.7
29 Mar – 25 Apr 2021 Roy Morgan 933 41.5 29.5 13.5 9 2.5 1 0.5 – 12
21–28 Mar 2021 Roy Morgan 924 45.5 23 12 11 1 2.5 2 – 22.5
9–13 Mar 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,006 49 27 9 8 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.4 22
25 Jan – 21 Feb 2021 Roy Morgan 924 45 29 13.5 7.5 1 1.5 1 – 16
4–24 Jan 2021 Roy Morgan 937 47 25 11.5 9 2 2 1.5 – 22
23 Nov – 13 Dec 2020 Roy Morgan 923 44 28 10.5 10 2 2 2 – 16
28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020 1 News–Kantar Public 1,004 53 25 8 8 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.1 28
26 Oct – 22 Nov 2020 Roy Morgan 939 44 25.5 12.5 10.5 1.5 1 2 – 18.5
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 50 25.6 7.9 7.6 1.2 2.6 1.5 1.5 24.4
Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB NAT GRN ACT TPM NZF TOP NCP Lead

General electorates

Auckland Central

Electorate vote
Date Polling organisation Sample size GRN LAB NAT ACT NZF Lead
24 Sep 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 500 38 17 36 2 4 2
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 35.10 32.13 27.16 1.63 0.76 2.97
Party vote
Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB NAT ACT GRN Lead
24 Sep 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 500 26 37 9 23 11
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 46.02 21.10 7.48 19.06 24.92

Ilam

Electorate vote
Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB NAT TOP GRN Lead
23 Aug 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 400 15 33 14 5 18
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 45.67 37.69 N/A 7.51 7.98

Napier

Electorate vote
Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB NAT ACT NZF Lead
20 Aug 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 400 37 48 1 5 11
9 Nov 2022 Curia 400 37 45 12 1 8
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 51.06 37.04 N/A N/A 18.77
Party vote
Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB NAT ACT Lead
20 Aug 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 400 27 35 17 8
9 Nov 2022 Curia 400 25 43 20 18
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 50.59 27.90 8.12 12.76

Northland

Electorate vote

Date Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB NZF GRN DNZ ACT Lead
10 Sep 2023 Taxpayers' Union-Curia 400 49 20 15 5 5 3 29
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 37.74 38.11 11.43 3.91 N/A 2.86 0.37

Tāmaki

Electorate vote
Date Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB GRN ACT Lead
18–28 Sep 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 400 40 14 – 38 2
20 Jul 2023 Sentio Group 700 36 8 6 34 2
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 51.73 32.29 7.85 5.18 19.44
Party vote
Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB NAT ACT GRN Lead
18–28 Sep 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 400 20 49 14 8 29
20 Jul 2023 Sentio Group 700 13 49 18 – 36
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 38.42 36.87 11.68 7.65 1.55

Tauranga

An opinion poll was held in the Tauranga electorate prior to the June 2022 Tauranga by-election. The by-election was won by National's Sam Uffindell.

Party vote
Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB NAT ACT GRN NZF TPM Lead
18 Jun 2022 2022 by-election result N/A 25.30 55.87 10.26 N/A N/A N/A 30.57
19–29 May 2022 Newshub–Reid Research ? 27.9 51.5 7.1 2.8 2.9 4.7 23.6
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 42.0 32.5 8.9 5.5 3.6 0.35 9.5

Wellington Central

Electorate vote
Date Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB GRN Lead
3–14 Sep 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 500 28.0 30.6 26.6 2.6
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 17.76 57.26 17.54 39.50
Party vote
Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB NAT GRN ACT TOP TPM NZF Lead
3–14 Sep 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 500 27.8 28 26.5 5.7 4.9 3 2.8 0.2
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 43.0 14.43 30.33 4.86 3.72 0.53 1.11 12.67

Māori electorates

Hauraki-Waikato

Electorate vote
Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB TPM Lead
27 September 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 36 32 4
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 65.26 25.57 39.69
Party vote
Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB TPM NAT GRN NZF ACT Lead
27 September 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 26 26 14 8 6 5 0
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 63.38 12.00 3.65 6.21 3.58 1.28 51.38

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Electorate vote

Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB TPM Lead
21 September 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 33 25 8
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 55.57 30.94 24.63

Party vote

Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB TPM NAT GRN NZF ACT Lead
21 September 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 35 24 11 7 6 4 11
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 67.33 12.16 2.33 6.48 3.76 0.88 55.17

Tāmaki Makaurau

Electorate vote

Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB TPM NAT GRN Lead
10 October 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 37 27 9 6 10
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 39.56 35.98 N/A 19.31 3.58

Party vote

Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB TPM NAT GRN NZF ACT Lead
10 October 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 35 22 10 9 8 2 13
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 59.98 12.7 3.21 10.46 4.34 1.06 50.01

Te Tai Hauāuru

Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB TPM NAT Lead
19 September 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 34 29 12 5
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 47.40 43.29 N/A 4.11

Party vote

Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB TPM NAT GRN NZF ACT Lead
19 September 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 34 22 13 6 7 2 12
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 61.03 15.45 2.99 6.71 3.51 1.20 45.58

Te Tai Tokerau

Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB TPM GRN ALC Lead
5 October 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 32 26 7 6 6
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 55.07 24.96 N/A 7.86 30.11

Party vote

Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB TPM NAT GRN ACT Lead
5 October 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 35 22 8 9 4 13
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 60.06 10.18 3.61 7.35 1.31 49.88

Te Tai Tonga

Electorate vote

Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB TPM Lead
26 September 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 36 25 9
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 48.88 25.41 23.47

Party vote

Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB TPM NAT GRN NZF ACT Lead
26 September 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 31 18 9 14 3 6 13
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 58.70 8.69 5.64 11.54 3.45 2.75 50.01

Waiariki

Electorate vote

Date Polling organisation Sample size TPM LAB Lead
9 October 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 50 22 28
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 46.78 43.62 3.16

Party vote

Date Polling organisation Sample size LAB TPM NAT GRN NZF ACT Lead
9 October 2023 Whakaata Māori–Curia 500 37 29 6 7 4 3 8
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 60.67 17.75 2.39 5.95 3.67 0.94 42.92

Preferred prime minister

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll. To qualify for this table and graph, this person must reach at least 3 percent in three separate polls.

Graph of preferred prime minister opinion polls (as at 10 October 2023). Only includes people who polled at least 3% in three separate polls. Smoothing is set to span 45%.
Date Polling organisation Sample size Hipkins Luxon Seymour Peters Ardern Collins Lead
7–10 Oct 2023 1 News–Verian 1,001 25 25 4 5 0.5 0.2 Tie
5–10 Oct 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 22.2 23.6 4.2 5 3.4 – 1.4
1–4 Oct 2023 Taxpayers’ Union–Curia 1,000 27 29 4 4.3 4.5 – 2
30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 1 News–Verian 1,000 25 26 3 4 0.4 – 1
23–26 Sep 2023 1 News–Verian 1,002 23 23 5 4 1 – Tie
17–23 Sep 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 19.1 24 6.1 6 4.1 – 4.9
16–19 Sep 2023 1 News–Verian 1,001 23 23 5 4 1 0.2 Tie
9–12 Sep 2023 1 News–Verian 1,002 23 23 5 4 1 0.1 Tie
3–9 Sep 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 22.5 22.5 7 4.6 – – Tie
28–30 Aug 2023 The Post–Freshwater Strategy 1,511 45 43 – – – – 2
24–30 Aug 2023 Talbot Mills 28 26 11 - - - 2
12–16 Aug 2023 1 News–Verian 1,000 21 20 6 3 2 0.2 1
3–8 Aug 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 25 25 7 7 – – Tie
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2023 Talbot Mills 1,012 34 24 - - - - 10
26–31 Jul 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 24 15.9 10.9 4.3 – – 8.1
8–12 Jul 2023 1 News–Verian 1,000 24 20 7 2 1 – 4
2–10 Jul 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 23 20 6 3.6 8 - 3
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2023 Talbot Mills 1,036 32 21 - - - - 11
31 May – 6 Jun 2023 Taxpayers' Union Curia 1,000 29 23 7 2.8 9 - 6
20–24 May 2023 1 News–Kantar Public 1,002 25 18 7 2 1 0.1 7
5–11 May 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 23.4 16.4 7.5 3.6 8.5 – 7
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 Talbot Mills 1,046 32 25 – – – – 7
30 Mar – 5 Apr 2023 Talbot Mills 36 24 11 – – – 12
1–9 Mar 2023 Talbot Mills 1,021 39 23 – – – – 16
4–8 Mar 2023 1 News–Kantar Public 1,002 27 17 6 3 2 0.2 10
2–7 Mar 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 30 21 8 – 7 – 9
1–9 Feb 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 30 26 8 3.5 9 – 4
26–31 Jan 2023 Talbot Mills 35 27 9 – – – 8
25–29 Jan 2023 1 News–Kantar Public 1,008 23 22 6 2 5 0.3 1
22–27 Jan 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 19.6 18.8 8 2.9 12.4 – 0.8
25 Jan 2023 Chris Hipkins is sworn in as the 41st Prime Minister of New Zealand.
22 Jan 2023 Chris Hipkins is unanimously elected Leader of the Labour Party.
19 Jan 2023 Jacinda Ardern announces her resignation as Prime Minister of New Zealand, taking effect 25 January 2023.
1–6 Dec 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 26.3 7.1 3.4 35.3 — 9
26–30 Nov 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,011 0.2 23 6 2 29 0.1 6
3–8 Nov 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 21.1 6.1 2.5 35 — 13.9
31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022 Talbot Mills 24 — – 40 – 16
25 Oct – 3 Nov 2022 Newshub–Reid Research 21.5 7.3 4.2 29.9 – 8.4
2–11 Oct 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 22.5 7.3 3.6 32.9 — 10.4
17–21 Sep 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,001 0.2 21 4 2 30 0.1 9
1–9 Sep 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 25.9 6.6 2.6 36.5 — 10.6
31 Aug – 7 Sep 2022 Talbot Mills 26 — – 38 – 12
3–11 Aug 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,200 19.5 7.7 4.2 39.5 — 20
28 Jul – 8 Aug 2022 Talbot Mills 26 9 – 39 – 13
30 Jul – 3 Aug 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,023 0.2 22 5 2 30 0.2 8
3–10 Jul 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,200 22.4 6.1 2.3 41.2 — 18.8
1–12 Jun 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,200 28 5.6 3.8 39.7 — 11.7
2–10 Jun 2022 Talbot Mills 1,200 29 8 42 13
21–25 May 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,002 – 25 3 1 33 0.1 8
4–11 May 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 27.9 – – 35.1 — 7.2
18–27 Apr 2022 Newshub–Reid Research 23.9 5.1 — 36.3 – 12.4
7–13 Apr 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 28.6 4.8 2.6 36.3 — 7.7
2–7, 14–15 Mar 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 26.6 4.4 5.5 38.7 — 12.1
5–8 Mar 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,000 0.3 25 5 2 34 0.3 9
1–10 Feb 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 28.5 2.4 1.8 38.9 1.5 10.4
22 Jan – 4 Feb 2022 Newshub–Reid Research 17.8 7.9 — 43.3 – 25.5
22–26 Jan 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,000 0.1 17 6 1.0 35 0.2 18
10–17 Jan 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 18.4 8.4 0.9 37.5 3.8 19.1
1–8 Dec 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 20.4 5.6 2.4 39.1 0.8 18.7
30 Nov 2021 Christopher Luxon is elected Leader of the National Party.
25 Nov 2021 Judith Collins is removed as National Party leader in a vote of no confidence.
10–17 Nov 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 2.5 11.9 — 41.7 6.1 29.8
6–10 Nov 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,001 – 4 11 1 39 5 28
1–8 Nov 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 4.1 10.5 1.5 34 6.3 23.5
29 Oct – 3 Nov 2021 Talbot Mills 1,023 2 15 — 47 10 32
3–11 Oct 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 2.3 12.3 1.3 47.2 5.2 34.9
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021 Talbot Mills 1,200+ – 16 — 51 9 35
22–26 Sep 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,001 0.1 3 11 0.7 44 5 33
5–9 Sep 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 3.3 9.3 1.5 50.8 4.4 41.5
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2021 Talbot Mills 1,050 1.3 14 — 55 13 41
21 Jul – 1 Aug 2021 Talbot Mills 1,216 2.1 14 — 50 11 36
22–29 Jul 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 – 8.6 — 45.5 8.2 36.9
24 Jun – 1 Jul 2021 Talbot Mills 1,199 – 12 — 55 10 43
22–26 May 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,002 – 3 6 1 48 9 39
7–13 May 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 2.4 — — 48.1 5.6 42.5
9–13 Mar 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,006 – 2 4 0.7 43 8 35
28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020 1 News–Kantar Public 1,004 0.3 2 4 1 58 12 46

Government approval rating

The government approval rating is a statistic which measures the proportion of people who say they think the country is heading in the right direction or wrong direction politically.

Graph of government approval rating polls (as at 31 August 2023). Smoothing is set to span 65%.
Date Polling organisation Sample size Right direction Wrong direction Do not know Lead
4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023 Roy Morgan – 38 45 17 7
31 Jul – 27 Aug 2023 Roy Morgan 1,046 32 56 12 23
28–30 Aug 2023 The Post–Freshwater Strategy 1,511 21 63 15 42
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2023 Talbot Mills 1,012 37 55 8 18
2–6 Aug 2023 Guardian Essential 1,163 31 55 14 24
26 Jun – 23 Jul 2023 Roy Morgan 937 29 60.5 10.5 31.5
2–10 Jul 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 22.1 64.5 13.4 42.4
29 May – 25 Jun 2023 Roy Morgan 955 38 54 8 16
24 Apr – 21 May 2023 Roy Morgan 952 34.5 54.5 11 20
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 Talbot Mills 1,046 40 52 8 12
27 Mar – 23 Apr 2023 Roy Morgan 929 35 55 10 20
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2023 Roy Morgan 945 38.5 52.5 9 14
30 Jan – 26 Feb 2023 Roy Morgan 943 42.5 47.5 10 5
9–29 Jan 2023 Roy Morgan 948 40 49 11 9
Dec 2022 Roy Morgan 947 32 57 11 25
31 Oct – 27 Nov 2022 Roy Morgan 926 35 55 10 20
31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022 Talbot Mills 41 49 10 8
26 Sep – 23 Oct 2022 Roy Morgan 951 42 50 8 8
2–11 Oct 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 29 56 15 27
29 Aug – 25 Sep 2022 Roy Morgan 942 37.5 51.5 11 14
1–9 Sep 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 32 54 14 22
31 Aug – 7 Sep 2022 Talbot Mills 44 49 7 5
25 Jul – 21 Aug 2022 Roy Morgan 947 37.5 53 9.5 15.5
28 Jul – 8 Aug 2022 Talbot Mills 42 50 8 8
27 Jul – 24 Jul 2022 Roy Morgan 937 40.5 51 8.5 10.5
30 May – 26 Jun 2022 Roy Morgan 947 39 51.5 9.5 12.5
1–12 Jun 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,200 36 50 14 14
2–10 Jun 2022 Talbot Mills 1,200 50 42 8 8
26 Apr – 22 May 2022 Roy Morgan 934 40 50 10 10
4–11 May 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 34 48 18 14
29 Apr – 10 May 2022 Talbot Mills 51 40 9 11
28 Mar – 24 Apr 2022 Roy Morgan 913 43 49.5 7.5 6.5
28 Feb – 27 Mar 2022 Roy Morgan 944 39 51.5 9.5 12.5
31 Jan – 27 Feb 2022 Roy Morgan 963 42.5 47.5 10 5
4–30 Jan 2022 Roy Morgan 951 48.5 42 9.5 6.5
22 Nov – 19 Dec 2021 Roy Morgan 967 42.5 44.5 13 2
25 Oct – 21 Nov 2021 Roy Morgan 951 46 44.5 9.5 1.5
1–8 Nov 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000 44 45 11 1
27 Sep – 24 Oct 2021 Roy Morgan 929 48 38.5 13.5 9.5
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021 Talbot Mills 1,200 63 30 7 33
30 Aug – 26 Sep 2021 Roy Morgan 940 57 32 11 25
26 Jul – 22 Aug 2021 Roy Morgan 940 52.5 37.5 10 15
28 Jun – 25 Jul 2021 Roy Morgan 945 55.5 34.5 10 21
31 May – 27 Jun 2021 Roy Morgan 927 57 33 10 24
26 Apr – 23 May 2021 Roy Morgan 932 62.5 28.5 9 34
29 Mar – 25 Apr 2021 Roy Morgan 933 62.5 26.5 11 36
21–28 Mar 2021 Roy Morgan 924 61.5 26 12.5 35.5
25 Jan – 21 Feb 2021 Roy Morgan 924 69.5 20 10.5 49.5
4–24 Jan 2021 Roy Morgan 937 71.5 18.5 10 53
23 Nov – 13 Dec 2020 Roy Morgan 923 71.5 18 10.5 53.5
26 Oct – 22 Nov 2020 Roy Morgan 939 69.5 20 10.5 49.5

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.

On 19 November 2022, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters ruled out a coalition with Labour, claiming "No one gets to lie to me twice". In April 2023, National leader Christopher Luxon commented that it would be "highly unlikely" that National would form a government with Te Pāti Māori or the Greens; however, a spokesperson later clarified Luxon had not "intended to fully rule out working" with either party. At the time, Te Pāti Māori was largely seen as the kingmaker in the upcoming election. Furthermore, Te Pāti Māori may not be prepared to support a National-led government that includes the ACT Party, as Te Pāti Māori has repeatedly accused the ACT Party of race baiting over co-governance and its calls for a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi. On 10 May, Luxon officially ruled out forming a coalition with Te Pāti Māori. On 27 August, Labour leader Chris Hipkins ruled out New Zealand First as a possible coalition partner.

Source Seats in parliament Likely
government
formation(s)
LAB NAT GRN ACT TPM NZF Total
2023 election result
14 Oct 2023 		34 48 15 11 6 8 122 National–ACT–NZ First (67)
1 News–Verian
7–10 Oct 2023 poll 		35 47 17 11 2 8 120 National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Newshub–Reid Research
5–10 Oct 2023 poll 		35 43 19 11 3 9 120 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Guardian Essential
4–8 Oct 2023 poll 		39 44 14 10 2 11 120 National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Roy Morgan
4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023 poll 		33 39 19 15 4 10 120 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1–4 Oct 2023 poll 		35 46 13 12 5 9 120 National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills
22–28 Sep 2023 poll 		34 47 16 11 4 8 120 National–ACT–NZ First (66)
The Post/Freshwater Strategy
28–30 Aug 2023 poll 		34 46 15 14 4 7 120 National–ACT–NZ First (67)
  1. Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ^ Private poll

References

  1. "'I no longer have enough in the tank': Jacinda Ardern resigns as New Zealand Prime Minister". ABC News. 19 January 2023. Archived from the original on 19 January 2023. Retrieved 19 January 2023.
  2. "ACT Party Port Waikato candidate Neil Christensen dies". Radio NZ News. Retrieved 10 October 2023.
  3. ^ "2020 General Election – Official Results and Statistics". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 21 January 2021. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  4. "National's Muralidhar nipping at Swarbrick's heels in Auckland central electorate poll". Radio New Zealand. 26 September 2023. Archived from the original on 26 September 2023. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
  5. "Poll shows Chlöe Swarbrick in fight to hold Auckland Central". Newstalk ZB. 27 September 2023.
  6. "Auckland Central Electorate Debate 2023 - Taxpayers' Union The Working Group". YouTube. New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
  7. "Christchurch's Ilam electorate swings back to National, according to latest poll". Radio New Zealand. 29 August 2023. Archived from the original on 29 August 2023. Retrieved 29 August 2023.
  8. ^ "NEW POLL: National Leads In Napier Electorate". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 23 August 2023. Archived from the original on 23 August 2023. Retrieved 23 August 2023.
  9. ^ "Napier Poll - November 2022" (PDF). Curia. 9 November 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 13 March 2023. Retrieved 4 September 2023.
  10. September 12; Media, 2023 Nztu. "NEW POLL: National Lead in Northland Electorate". Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 7 October 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  11. ^ Manhire, Toby (3 October 2023). "Simon O'Connor vs Brooke van Velden will go to wire in Tāmaki – new poll". The Spinoff.
  12. ^ "Matthew Hooton: Van Velden on track to make it two seats for Act in Auckland". NZ Herald. 21 July 2023. Archived from the original on 20 July 2023. Retrieved 20 July 2023.
  13. "Tauranga – Official Result". Electoral Commission. Retrieved 17 September 2023.
  14. "Tauranga by-election: On the campaign trail and behind the scenes with National, ACT and Labour". Newshub. Archived from the original on 25 June 2022. Retrieved 21 June 2022.
  15. "Newshub Nation Reid Research Poll: Labour's Ibrahim Omer, Greens' Tamatha Paul, National's Scott Sheeran neck and neck in Wellington Central". Newshub. Retrieved 17 September 2023.
  16. ^ "Election's youngest candidate has Labour stronghold under siege". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 5 October 2023.
  17. ^ "Will voters punish Meka Whaitiri for waka jumping?". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 5 October 2023.
  18. ^ "Older voters back Henare and Labour; younger favour Kemp and Te Pāti Māori". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 11 October 2023.
  19. ^ "Neck and neck race for Te Tai Hauāuru". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 8 October 2023.
  20. ^ "KORO BEATS WINNING THE ELECTION FOR KELVIN DAVIS | Media Release | Whakaata Māori". www.whakaatamaori.co.nz. Retrieved 8 October 2023.
  21. ^ "Tirikatene tightens grip on Te Tai Tonga". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 5 October 2023.
  22. ^ "Poll: Rawiri Waititi takes clear lead to hold Waiariki". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 9 October 2023.
  23. Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  24. Swift, Molly. "NZ First leader Winston Peters rules out coalition with Labour". Newshub. No. 19 November 2022. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
  25. Franke-Bowell, Jonah; McConnell, Glenn (13 April 2023). "'Highly unlikely' Christopher Luxon will partner with Te Pāti Māori or 'socialist' Greens". Stuff. Retrieved 12 April 2023.
  26. McConnell, Glenn (11 January 2023). "Te Pāti Māori plans for a big 2023, but happy to stay cross bench". Stuff. Retrieved 11 January 2023.
  27. McConnell, Glenn (10 May 2023). "National's Christopher Luxon officially rules out working with Māori Party". Stuff. Retrieved 10 May 2023.
  28. "'Instability and chaos' - Labour rules out a partnership with NZ First". RNZ. 27 August 2023. Retrieved 27 August 2023.
  29. "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.
  30. Desmarais, Felix (11 October 2023). "Poll: Labour lifts and Greens strong, Peters has decision to make". 1 News.
  31. Lynch, Jenna (11 October 2023). "Newshub-Reid Research poll: National right to panic as support plummets, New Zealand First surges". Newshub.
  32. Graham-McLay, Charlotte (10 October 2023). "Guardian Essential New Zealand poll: Labour picks up steam days out from election". The Guardian.
  33. "New Zealand set for a new Prime Minister and a three-party governing coalition: National, ACT & NZ First". Roy Morgan. 13 October 2023.
  34. "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: October 2023". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 6 October 2023.
  35. Trevett, Claire (5 October 2023). "Election 2023: Last pre-election Talbot Mills shows NZ First rising and in the box seat, National and Greens rising, Act and Labour dropping". New Zealand Herald.
  36. Vance, Andrea (7 September 2023). "Labour slumps to new poll low but numbers offer some comfort". The Post.
New Zealand Opinion polling for general elections in New Zealand
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