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In the run up to the 2014 Indian general election, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2013 to April 2014. Many organisations have gone on to conduct exit polls and post-poll surveys as well, which too are displayed.

Background

Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation.

Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.

Post-poll surveys or Exit Polls, widely published, are fundamentally different from opinion polls. According to a study, post-poll surveys in the past have consistently overestimated BJP seats. However, in 2014, it was the opposite and most exit polls underestimated the number of seats to be won by BJP and allies.

Opinion polls

Seats

Votes

Graphs

•   NDA
•   UPA
•   Others

•   NDA
•   UPA
•   Others

Statewise opinion polling

Andhra Pradesh (42)

NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Andhra Pradesh

Arunachal Pradesh (2)

Assam (14)

NDTV - Hansa Research March 2014 opinion poll for Assam

Bihar (40)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Bihar

Chhattisgarh (11)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Chhattisgarh

Goa (2)

Gujarat (26)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Gujarat

Haryana (10)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Haryana

Himachal Pradesh (4)

Jammu and Kashmir (6)

Jharkhand (14)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Jharkhand

Karnataka (28)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Karnataka

Kerala (20)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Kerala

Madhya Pradesh (29)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Madhya Pradesh

Maharashtra (48)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Maharashtra

Manipur (2)

Meghalaya (2)

Mizoram (1)

Nagaland (1)

Odisha (21)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Odisha

Punjab (13)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Punjab

Rajasthan (25)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Rajasthan

Sikkim (1)

Tamil Nadu (39)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Tamil Nadu

Tripura (2)

Uttar Pradesh (80)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Uttar Pradesh

Uttarakhand (5)

West Bengal (42)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for West Bengal

Union Territories

NCT of Delhi (7)

Latest NDTV - Hansa Research April 2014 opinion poll for Delhi

Other Union Territories (6)

Other findings

The eight largest metropolises in India are considered important because they constitute 31 seats, larger than some regions altogether. In the previous election, the INC-led UPA won 24 of these seats, but the UPA is trailing in these areas. A NDTV opinion poll in Uttar Pradesh indicated that the BJP would win its largest share of seats in the region by winning 40 of the 80 seats. BSP would get 15 seats, SP would get 13 seats, INC-RLD will get 12 seats, amongst its losses will Ajit Singh. The poll also asked those in Gujarat if Modi should run from U.P., of which 67% responded negatively, while those in U.P. said by 62% that they would like to see him run from there. A survey of first time voters suggested Modi was the most popular prime ministerial candidate and Mamata Banerjee was the most popular outside the BJP or INC. Latest survey by CNN-IBN-Lokniti predicts the decline (by 5%) in popularity of Narendra Modi as PM candidate.

Exit polls

Controversy

Polling agencies have been criticised by some political parties, intellectuals and political scholars. One of the limitations in making predictions is the modelling the relationship between vote share and the number of seats.

A controversy erupted when a lowly rated news channel News Express released footage of a sting operation named Operation Polly which alleged that a number of polling agencies were involved in malpractices such as juggling with the statistics and results. The sting was aimed to suggest that Polling agencies are fudging numbers. The allegation included global research Giants like Ipsos and CVoter, whose contract with the India Today group was suspended briefly.

References

1. "In India’s National Election, Don’t Trust the Polls, Jonah Force Hill, February 24, 2014". TheDiplomat.com. Feb 2014.
2. "Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls: My Experiences".
3. "What exit polls are really about".
4. "Lok Sabha elections 2014: Why exit polls often get it wrong". The Economic Times. 13 May 2014.
5. "2014 Lok Sabha polls: Big losses to UPA, no gain for NDA, survey finds". The Times of India. 17 April 2013. Archived from the original on 20 April 2013. Retrieved 11 June 2013.
6. "Narendra Modi is NDA's trump card for 2014 Lok Sabha polls, reveals Headlines Today C-Voter survey". Indiatoday.intoday.in. 21 May 2013. Retrieved 31 July 2013.
7. This Content Has been removed from Internet And was seen AT "http://www.newsbullet.in/india/34-more/42023-upa-set-for-a-crushing-defeatsurvey Archived 8 June 2013 at the Wayback Machine". The Site which was earlier named as newsbullet.in has been changed to abplive.in with no previous content.
8. "Lok Sabha polls 2014: Narendra Modi top choice for PM, beats Rahul Gandhi, says survey". Indian Express. 4 July 2013. Retrieved 31 July 2013.
9. "Poll tracker". CNN-IBN. 26 July 2013. Archived from the original on 28 July 2013. Retrieved 26 July 2013.
10. "Survey Methodology". The Hindu. Chennai, India. 22 July 2013. Retrieved 25 July 2013.
11. "2014 Poll survey projects NDA making significant gains". economic times. 29 July 2013. Retrieved 29 July 2013.
12. ^ "Congress 102, BJP 162; UPA 117, NDA 186: C-Voter Poll". Outlook. Archived from the original on 16 October 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2013.
13. ^ "NDA may win over 200 seats as Modi's popularity soars further: India Today Mood of the Nation opinion poll : North, News – India Today". India Today. Retrieved 23 January 2013.
14. ^ "ABP News nationwide opinion poll: NDA clear winner with 226, UPA stuck at 101". Abpnews. Archived from the original on 29 January 2014. Retrieved 25 January 2013.
15. ^ "Modi-led NDA way ahead than UPA, to win 236 seats in LS polls 2014: ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll". Abp news. 22 February 2014. Archived from the original on 13 April 2014. Retrieved 22 February 2014.
16. ^ "Poll tracker: NDA to get 211–231, UPA distant second with 107–127". IBNLIVE. Archived from the original on 26 January 2014. Retrieved 24 January 2013.
17. ^ "Methodology of Lokniti-IBN Tracker Round II". Lokniti. Archived from the original on 29 January 2014. Retrieved 24 January 2013.
18. ^ "India TV-C Voter projection: Big gains for BJP in UP, Bihar; NDA may be 45 short of magic mark". Indiatv. Retrieved 13 February 2013.
19. "#WhoWillFormGovt: National Poll Projection – 1". Timesnow. Archived from the original on 22 February 2014. Retrieved 13 February 2013.
20. "NDA close to halfway mark with 212–232, needs more allies". IBNLive. 7 March 2014. Archived from the original on 7 March 2014. Retrieved 7 March 2014.
21. ^ "The Final Word – India's biggest opinion poll". NDTV. 14 March 2014. Retrieved 14 March 2014.
22. "Modi-powered NDA may get 234–246 seats, UPA 111–123". IBNLive. 4 April 2014. Archived from the original on 7 April 2014. Retrieved 4 April 2014.
23. ^ "The Final Word – India's biggest opinion poll". NDTV. 14 April 2014. Retrieved 15 April 2014.
24. "The Final Word – India's biggest opinion poll". NDTV. 14 April 2014. Retrieved 15 April 2014.
25. The poll was conducted separately for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. 1 seat was given to others in Telangana. Moreover, BJP and TDP were taken to be a coalition
26. "Andhra poll tracker: TDP to get 18–20 seats, YSRCP 1–2, Congress 3–4". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 4 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
27. The poll was conducted separately for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
28. ^ "Modi powered BJP breaches southern fortress". India Today. 20 April 2014. Retrieved 20 April 2014.
29. The poll gave one seat to others.
30. "Bihar tracker: BJP-LJP to bag 21–29, RJD-Cong-NCP 7–13, JDU 2–5 seats". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 4 April 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
31. ^ "Modi wave to take 42–50 seats in UP; 20–24 in Bihar: India Today Group-Cicero poll". India Today. 11 April 2014. Retrieved 13 April 2014.
32. "Gujarat poll tracker: BJP on a roll, to win 20–26 seats, Congress 0–4". CNN-IBN. 2 April 2014. Archived from the original on 5 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
33. "Karnataka tracker: Congress to win 12–18 seats, BJP 7–13, others 1–4". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 4 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
34. 3 seats given to others
35. "Kerala poll tracker: UDF ahead with 11–17 seats, LDF 4–8". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 3 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
36. "MP poll tracker: Landslide for BJP with 24–28 seats, Congress 1–5". CNN-IBN. 2 April 2014. Archived from the original on 5 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
37. With Republican Party of India (Athvale) and Shiv Sena as National Democratic Alliance-NDA
38. "BJP-Shiv Sena clear winner in Maharashtra: ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll". abplive.in/. ABP News. 28 March 2014. Retrieved 28 March 2014.
39. "Maharashtra poll tracker: BJP-SS-RPI 24–30 seats, Congress-NCP 16–22". CNN-IBN. 2 April 2014. Archived from the original on 5 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
40. "Odisha tracker: Naveen's BJD to win 10–16 seats, BJP 3–7, Congress 0–4". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 4 April 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
41. "Rajasthan tracker: BJP to win 21–25 seats, Cong routed, may get 0–2". CNN-IBN. 3 April 2014. Archived from the original on 6 April 2014. Retrieved 4 April 2014.
42. "Tamil Nadu tracker: AIADMK 15–21 seats, DMK 10–16, BJP alliance 6–10". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 4 April 2014. Retrieved 2 April 2014.
43. ABP NEWS (25 January 2014). "ABP News nationwide opinion poll: UPA leading in south India, NDA in east" – via YouTube.
44. "India TV C voter projection big gains for BJP". 13 February 2014.
45. "ABP News – Nielsen Opinion Poll BJP sweep in UP-SP-BSP hit".
46. "UP tracker: BJP may win 42–50 seats, SP 11–17, BSP 10–16, Cong-RLD 4–8". CNN-IBN. 3 April 2014. Archived from the original on 6 April 2014. Retrieved 4 April 2014.
47. "West Bengal tracker: TMC 23–29 seats, Left 7–13, Congress 4–7, BJP 0–1". CNN-IBN. 1 April 2014. Archived from the original on 3 April 2014. Retrieved 1 April 2014.
48. "Trinamool Congress set to bag up to 27 of 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, says India Today-Cicero poll". India Today. 13 April 2014. Retrieved 14 April 2014.
49. "Delhi tracker: BJP takes lead, to win 3–4 seats, AAP 2–3, Congress 0–1". CNN-IBN. 3 April 2014. Archived from the original on 6 April 2014. Retrieved 3 April 2014.
50. "India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll: BJP set to completely rout Congress in Delhi's seven Lok Sabha seats". India Today. 2 April 2014. Retrieved 6 April 2014.
51. "Why India's Big Cities Are Important For Elections 2014". IndiaSpend. 21 February 2014. Retrieved 25 February 2014.
52. "NDTV Opinion Poll: Uttar Pradesh with Narendra Modi, big dent for Mulayam Singh Yadav".
53. "First time voters want Narendra Modi as PM, suggests India Today-CVoter Youth Survey". Indiatoday.intoday.in. 19 September 2013. Retrieved 25 December 2013.
54. "Modi's popularity dips but NDA still leading: Survey". Times of India. 7 March 2014. Retrieved 7 March 2014.
55. "Post-poll survey: Modi-led NDA may get 270–282 seats, UPA 92–102". IBNLive. 12 May 2014. Archived from the original on 15 May 2014. Retrieved 12 May 2014.
56. What exit polls are really about? The Hindu BusinessLine
57. ^ Lok Sabha Exit Polls India Today
58. ^ India Today Group-Cicero post-poll result: Modi set to be India's next PM India Today
59. ^ Lok Sabha 2014 – Exit Poll Archived 15 May 2014 at the Wayback Machine Today's Chanakya
60. Methodology – 2014 General Elections Archived 15 May 2014 at the Wayback Machine, TODAY'S CHANAKYA
61. ABP NEWS – NIELSEN EXIT POLL 2014 Archived 15 May 2014 at the Wayback Machine ABP News
62. "Lok Sabha Exit and Post Poll – Methodology". NDTV India. 14 May 2014. Retrieved 15 May 2014.
63. "Watch NDTV Exit Poll: BJP and Allies Cross Half-Way Mark, Congress in Double Digits". NDTV India. 14 May 2014. Retrieved 15 May 2014.
64. Post-poll survey: Modi propels BJP-led NDA to power with 274–286 seats, CNN-IBN
65. Shashidhar, Karthik (30 August 2013). "Opinion".
66. Why India's pollsters can't figure it out, Rukmini Shrinivasan, TNN, Jun 9, 2013

External links

• Election Commission of India website
• Punjab Election Opinion Poll

v t e 2014 Indian general election
Elected Prime Minister: Narendra Modi (BJP) Constituencies MP's elected Opinion polling Parties Results Timeline
Parliamentary Candidates	NDA UPA
Prime ministerial candidates	Narendra Modi (NDA) J. Jayalalithaa (AIADMK)
Parties and leaders	National BJP (Singh) BSP (Mayawati) CPI (Reddy) CPI(M) (Karat) INC (Gandhi) NCP (Pawar) State AAP (Kejriwal) AGP (Mahanta) AIADMK (Jayalalithaa) AIFB (Nair) AINRC (Rangasamy) AITC (Banerjee) AIUDF (Ajmal) AJSUP (Mahto) BJD (Patnaik) BPF (Mohilary) BRS (Rao) DMDK (Vijayakant) DMK (Karunanidhi) HJC(BL) (Bishnoi) INLD (Chautala) IUML (Ahamed) JD(S) (Gowda) JD(U) (Kumar) JKNC (Abdullah) JKNPP (Mankotia) JKPDP (Sayeed) JMM (Soren) JVK(P) (Marandi) KC(M) (Mani) LJSP (Paswan) MNS (Thackeray) NPF (Zeliang) NPP (Sangma) PMK (Ramadoss) PPA (Kamin) RJD (Yadav) RLD (Singh) RSP (Chandrachoodan) SAD (Badal) SDF (Chamling) SP (Yadav) SS (Thackeray) TDP (Naidu) UDP (Roy)
Candidates	AIFB CPI(M) LDF NDA UPA WBLF
Campaign	BJP INC
By state	Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu and Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland National Capital Territory of Delhi Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal

v t e Elections in India
General elections	1920 1923 1926 1930 1934 1945 1951–52 1957 1962 1967 1971 1977 1980 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 Next
State elections	1920 1923 1926 1930 1934 1937 1945 1946 1952 1954 1955 1957 1960 1961 1962 1964 1965 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1974 1975 1977 1978 1979 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
See also: Elections in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Chandigarh Delhi Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu and Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Odisha Puducherry Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Telangana Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal Presidential elections Rajya Sabha elections Election Commission

• 2014 Indian general election
• Opinion polling in India
• Opinion polling for elections