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2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

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For related races, see 2016 United States Senate elections.

2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
Turnout67.34%
 
Nominee Ron Johnson Russ Feingold
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,479,471 1,380,335
Percentage 50.17% 46.81%
County resultsCongressional district resultsPrecinct resultsJohnson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Feingold:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
     No vote
U.S. senator before election

Ron Johnson
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Ron Johnson
Republican

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Wisconsin, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 9, 2016.

Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson was re-elected to a second term in office. Former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold, whom Johnson unseated in the 2010 midterm elections, sought a rematch for a fourth non-consecutive term in office but was again defeated by Johnson, who became the first Republican to win a Senate election in Wisconsin during a presidential election year since Bob Kasten in 1980. Kasten was ultimately unseated by Feingold in 1992. Johnson's victory was considered an upset as most polling had Feingold in the lead, coinciding with Donald Trump's own surprise victory in the state's presidential contest. Feingold managed to win six counties that voted for Donald Trump; Columbia, Crawford, Lafayette, Richland, Sauk and Vernon.

Background

In 2010, then-incumbent Democratic senator Russ Feingold ran for re-election to a fourth term in 2010 but was defeated by Republican nominee Ron Johnson.

In March 2013, Johnson announced that he had begun fundraising for his campaign. At that time, he had just $1,529 remaining in his campaign account after raising $16.1 million for the 2010 election, over half of which he self-funded. Johnson said in November 2014 that he would not self-finance another campaign, saying: "I made my $9 million investment in this country. I gave it once, I don't think I should do it again." On May 14, 2015, Feingold announced he would run to win back his former Senate seat. Ultimately, Feingold spent over $24 million on the campaign and ended up with more remaining cash than Johnson, who spent only $20 million.

After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Wisconsin was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to retake their majority in the traditionally blue state. Politico pointed to Johnson's "worrisome" favorability ratings as one of the main reasons for his vulnerability. A March 2014 Marquette University Law School poll found that just 29% of voters had a favorable opinion of him.

Republican primary

Parts of this article (those related to Section) need to be updated. The reason given is: We need the 2016 Republican primary results here. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. (February 2023)

Candidates

Declared

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Russ Feingold, former U.S. Senator, and former U.S. Special Envoy for the African Great Lakes and the Congo-Kinshasa
  • Scott Harbach, perennial candidate

Declined

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Russ Feingold 303,282 90.14%
Democratic Scott Harbach 33,185 9.86%
Total votes 336,467 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

General election

Candidates

Debates

Dates Location Johnson Feingold Link
October 14, 2016 Green Bay, Wisconsin Participant Participant
October 18, 2016 Milwaukee, Wisconsin Participant Participant Full debate

Endorsements

Ron Johnson (R)

Presidents

State Governors

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Russ Feingold (D)

Presidents

Vice Presidents

U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Wisconsin State Senators

Labor unions

Organizations

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D (flip) November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report Tilt D (flip) November 3, 2016
Daily Kos Lean D (flip) November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics Tossup November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Johnson (R) 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Phil
Anderson (L) 		Other /
Neither 		Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 2,246 ± 4.6% 49% 48% — — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 1,943 ± 4.6% 49% 48% — — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 1,568 ± 4.6% 48% 49% — — 3%
Clarity Campaign Labs November 1–2, 2016 1,129 ± 2.9% 46% 49% — — 5%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 1,271 ± 4.6% 48% 48% — — 4%
Public Policy Polling October 31–November 1, 2016 891 ± 3.3% 44% 49% — — 7%
Loras College October 31–November 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 45% 47% 2% — 6%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 1,103 ± 4.6% 50% 48% — — 2%
Marquette University October 26–31, 2016 1,190 LV ± 3.5% 44% 45% 3% 2% 3%
1,401 RV ± 3.3% 42% 43% 5% 3% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,195 ± 4.6% 49% 49% — — 2%
Emerson College October 27–28, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 44% 49% — 4% 3%
Let America Work^ October 18–20, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 48% 2% — 4%
Club for Growth^ October 18–20, 2016 400 ± 4.2% 42% 45% — — 13%
Public Policy Polling October 18–19, 2016 804 ± 3.5% 41% 47% — — 12%
Monmouth University October 15–18, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 44% 52% 2% — 2%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College October 13–16, 2016 664 ± 3.8% 40% 52% 0% 3% 5%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 1,076 ± 0.5% 46% 51% — — 3%
Google Consumer Surveys October 12–14, 2016 551 ± 4.2% 39% 58% — — 3%
Marquette University October 6–9, 2016 839 LV ± 3.9% 44% 46% 4% 1% 4%
46% 48% — 1% 4%
1,000 RV ± 3.7% 42% 44% 6% 1% 6%
44% 47% — 2% 5%
CBS News/YouGov October 5–7, 2016 993 ± 4.3% 42% 45% — — 13%
Loras College October 4–5, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 45% 40% — 3% 9%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 4, 2016 1,102 ± 3.0% 41% 53% — — 6%
Emerson College September 19–20, 2016 700 ± 3.6% 42% 52% — 3% 4%
Marquette University September 15–18, 2016 642 LV ± 4.8% 39% 44% 7% — 10%
41% 47% — — 8%
802 RV ± 4.4% 37% 44% 8% — 10%
40% 46% — — 11%
Monmouth University August 27–30, 2016 404 ± 4.9% 41% 54% 2% — 3%
Public Policy Polling August 26–27, 2016 1,054 ± 3.0% 42% 49% — — 9%
Marquette University August 25–28, 2016 650 LV ± 5.0% 42% 45% 6% — 7%
45% 48% — — 7%
803 RV ± 4.5% 38% 42% 8% — 12%
42% 46% — — 12%
Global Strategy Group August 25, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 37% 55% — — 8%
Let America Work^ August 21–22, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 47% 50% — — 3%
Marquette University August 4–7, 2016 683 LV ± 5.0% 39% 50% 7% — 4%
42% 53% — — 6%
805 RV ± 4.5% 38% 47% 7% — 8%
43% 49% — — 8%
Let America Work^ July 30–August 1, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 50% — — 6%
Global Strategy Group July 20, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 41% 52% — — 7%
Marquette University July 7–10, 2016 665 LV ± 4.5% 40% 46% 7% — 7%
44% 49% — — 7%
801 RV ± 4.1% 38% 45% 8% — 9%
41% 48% — — 11%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 843 ± 3.4% 37% 50% — — 13%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 45% 46% — — 9%
Marquette University June 9–12, 2016 666 LV ± 4.9% 42% 51% — — 7%
800 RV ± 4.4% 41% 45% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016 853 ± 3.4% 41% 51% — — 8%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College April 12–15, 2016 616 ± 4.0% 41% 51% — — 6%
Emerson College March 30–April 3, 2016 1,198 ± 2.8% 44% 48% — 8% —
Public Policy Polling March 28–29, 2016 1,397 ± 2.6% 39% 46% — — 15%
Loras College March 28–29, 2016 1,000 ± 3.1% 39% 48% — 1% 12%
Marquette University March 24–28, 2016 957 LV ± 4.1% 45% 48% — — 7%
1,405 RV ± 3.3% 42% 47% — — 11%
Marquette University February 18–21, 2016 802 RV ± 4.5% 37% 49% — — 14%
Marquette University January 21–24, 2016 806 RV ± 4.0% 37% 50% — — 13%
Let America Work^ November 16–18, 2015 900 ± 3.3% 44% 45% — — 11%
Marquette University November 12–15, 2015 803 RV ± 4.2% 38% 49% — — 13%
Democracy Corps October 24–28, 2015 400 ± 4.9% 46% 51% — — 3%
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College October 14–17, 2015 603 ± 4.0% 40% 51% — 2% 7%
Marquette University September 24–28, 2015 803 RV ± 4.1% 36% 50% — 7% 7%
End Citizens United September 10–14, 2015 775 ± 3.6% 39% 47% — — 14%
Marquette University August 13–16, 2015 802 RV ± 3.5% 42% 47% — — 12%
Marquette University April 7–10, 2015 803 RV ± 3.5% 38% 54% — — 9%
Public Policy Polling March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 41% 50% — — 9%
Public Policy Polling April 17–20, 2014 1,144 ± 2.9% 41% 47% — — 12%
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 2013 1,180 ± 2.9% 42% 49% — — 9%
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 2013 807 ± 2.3% 42% 52% — — 6%

^ Internal poll taken for Ron Johnson.

Hypothetical polling

with Mary Burke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Johnson (R) 		Mary
Burke (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 45% 46% 9%

with Mark Pocan

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Johnson (R) 		Mark
Pocan (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 43% 36% 20%

with Gwen Moore

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Johnson (R) 		Gwen
Moore (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 45% 37% — 18%

with Ron Kind

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Johnson (R) 		Ron
Kind (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 6–8, 2015 1,071 ± 3.0% 43% 37% — 20%
Public Policy Polling April 17–20, 2014 1,144 ± 2.9% 41% 39% — 20%
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 2013 1,180 ± 2.9% 43% 40% — 17%

Results

2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Ron Johnson (incumbent) 1,479,471 50.17% −1.69%
Democratic Russ Feingold 1,380,335 46.81% −0.21%
Libertarian Phil Anderson 87,531 2.97% N/A
Write-in 1,404 0.05% +0.01%
Total votes 2,948,741 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Johnson won 6 of 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.

District Johnson Feingold Representative
1st 56% 42% Paul Ryan
2nd 30% 67% Mark Pocan
3rd 49% 47% Ron Kind
4th 26% 71% Gwen Moore
5th 63% 35% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 58% 38% Glenn Grothman
7th 57% 40% Sean Duffy
8th 59% 38% Reid Ribble
Mike Gallagher

Notes

  1. Archived December 8, 2015, at the Wayback Machine

References

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External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

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