Misplaced Pages

Post-election pendulum for the 1998 Australian federal election

Article snapshot taken from Wikipedia with creative commons attribution-sharealike license. Give it a read and then ask your questions in the chat. We can research this topic together.

See also: Australian federal election, 1998 See also: Results of the 1998 Australian federal election (House of Representatives)

The Mackerras pendulum as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Government seats (80)
Marginal
Herbert Qld Peter Lindsay LIB 0.10
Eden-Monaro NSW Gary Nairn LIB 0.18
Hinkler Qld Paul Neville NAT 0.34
Moreton Qld Gary Hardgrave LIB 0.57
Petrie Qld Teresa Gambaro LIB 0.75
Richmond NSW Larry Anthony NAT 0.77
Adelaide SA Trish Worth LIB 0.91
Longman Qld Mal Brough LIB 0.92
Makin SA Trish Draper LIB 0.94
La Trobe Vic Bob Charles LIB 0.99
McEwen Vic Fran Bailey LIB 1.04
Parramatta NSW Ross Cameron LIB 1.07
Hindmarsh SA Chris Gallus LIB 1.23
Lindsay NSW Jackie Kelly LIB 1.28
Mayo SA Alexander Downer LIB 1.74 v DEM
Deakin Vic Phil Barresi LIB 1.93
Robertson NSW Jim Lloyd LIB 2.01
Dunkley Vic Bruce Billson LIB 2.04
Kalgoorlie WA Barry Haase LIB 2.10
Page NSW Ian Causley NAT 2.36
Ballarat Vic Michael Ronaldson LIB 2.77
Wide Bay Qld Warren Truss NAT 2.86
Blair Qld Cameron Thompson LIB 3.40 v ONP
Flinders Vic Peter Reith LIB 3.72
Gilmore NSW Joanna Gash LIB 4.04
Leichhardt Qld Warren Entsch LIB 4.05
Macquarie NSW Kerry Bartlett LIB 4.10
Parkes NSW Tony Lawler NAT 4.11
Aston Vic Peter Nugent LIB 4.24
Fairfax Qld Alex Somlyay LIB 4.36
Dawson Qld De-Anne Kelly NAT 4.42
Corangamite Vic Stewart McArthur LIB 4.50
Casey Vic Michael Wooldridge LIB 4.87
Forde Qld Kay Elson LIB 5.25
Pearce WA Judi Moylan LIB 5.30
Menzies Vic Kevin Andrews LIB 5.40
Hughes NSW Danna Vale LIB 5.52
Macarthur NSW John Fahey LIB 5.63
Tangney WA Daryl Williams LIB 5.90
Fairly safe
Bennelong NSW John Howard LIB 6.03
Moore WA Mal Washer LIB 6.04
Wentworth NSW Andrew Thomson LIB 6.32
Cowper NSW Garry Nehl NAT 6.36
Forrest WA Geoff Prosser LIB 6.88
Sturt SA Christopher Pyne LIB 7.29
Wannon Vic David Hawker LIB 7.44
Boothby SA Andrew Southcott LIB 7.45
Fadden Qld David Jull LIB 7.59
Grey SA Barry Wakelin LIB 8.04
Hume NSW Alby Schultz LIB 8.06
Goldstein Vic David Kemp LIB 8.15
McPherson Qld Margaret May LIB 8.34
Gippsland Vic Peter McGauran NAT 8.83
Cook NSW Bruce Baird LIB 8.94
Ryan Qld John Moore LIB 9.52
Higgins Vic Peter Costello LIB 9.62
Lyne NSW Mark Vaile NAT 9.72
Safe
Indi Vic Lou Lieberman LIB 10.11
Fisher Qld Peter Slipper LIB 11.00
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter NAT 11.19
Kooyong Vic Petro Georgiou LIB 11.39
North Sydney NSW Joe Hockey LIB 12.22
Moncrieff Qld Kathy Sullivan LIB 12.83
New England NSW Stuart St. Clair NAT 12.93
Warringah NSW Tony Abbott LIB 12.93
Groom Qld Ian Macfarlane LIB 13.04
Curtin WA Julie Bishop LIB 13.28
Berowra NSW Philip Ruddock LIB 13.52
Gwydir NSW John Anderson NAT 13.58
Barker SA Patrick Secker LIB 13.74
Maranoa Qld Bruce Scott NAT 14.42
Farrer NSW Tim Fischer NAT 14.62
O'Connor WA Wilson Tuckey LIB 15.14
Riverina NSW Kay Hull NAT 15.30
Mackellar NSW Bronwyn Bishop LIB 15.64
Wakefield SA Neil Andrew LIB 16.26
Mallee Vic John Forrest NAT 19.37
Mitchell NSW Alan Cadman LIB 19.85
Very safe
Murray Vic Sharman Stone LIB 22.06
Bradfield NSW Brendan Nelson LIB 23.20
Opposition seats (67)
Marginal
Bass Tas Michelle O'Byrne ALP 0.06
Dickson Qld Cheryl Kernot ALP 0.12
Kingston SA David Cox ALP 0.47
Northern Territory NT Warren Snowdon ALP 0.57
McMillan Vic Christian Zahra ALP 0.57
Stirling WA Jann McFarlane ALP 1.04
Paterson NSW Bob Horne ALP 1.22
Chisholm Vic Anna Burke ALP 2.07
Griffith Qld Kevin Rudd ALP 2.43
Swan WA Kim Wilkie ALP 2.70
Lilley Qld Wayne Swan ALP 3.13
Bowman Qld Con Sciacca ALP 3.29
Dobell NSW Michael Lee ALP 3.35
Bendigo Vic Steve Gibbons ALP 3.47
Canning WA Jane Gerick ALP 3.52
Cowan WA Graham Edwards ALP 3.56
Braddon Tas Sid Sidebottom ALP 4.33
Brisbane Qld Arch Bevis ALP 4.59
Lowe NSW John Murphy ALP 4.63
Capricornia Qld Kirsten Livermore ALP 5.29
Melbourne Ports Vic Michael Danby ALP 5.83
Jagajaga Vic Jenny Macklin ALP 5.91
Fairly safe
Isaacs Vic Greg Wilton ALP 6.40
Franklin Tas Harry Quick ALP 6.60
Bruce Vic Alan Griffin ALP 6.72
Bank NSW Daryl Melham ALP 7.11
Burke Vic Neil O'Keefe ALP 7.61
Oxley Qld Bernie Ripoll ALP 8.20
Rankin Qld Craig Emerson ALP 8.69
Barton NSW Robert McClelland ALP 9.76
Greenway NSW Frank Mossfield ALP 9.94
Safe
Fremantle WA Carmen Lawrence ALP 10.02
Canberra ACT Annette Ellis ALP 10.06
Lyons Tas Dick Adams ALP 10.61
Corio Vic Gavan O'Connor ALP 11.36
Brand WA Kim Beazley ALP 12.29
Werriwa NSW Mark Latham ALP 12.67
Shortland NSW Jill Hall ALP 12.81
Charlton NSW Kelly Hoare ALP 12.97
Perth WA Stephen Smith ALP 13.28
Kingsford Smith NSW Laurie Brereton ALP 13.40
Hotham Vic Simon Crean ALP 13.56
Denison Tas Duncan Kerr ALP 14.51
Bonython SA Martyn Evans ALP 14.53
Hunter NSW Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 14.69
Fraser ACT Bob McMullan ALP 14.86
Holt Vic Anthony Byrne ALP 15.11
Port Adelaide SA Rod Sawford ALP 16.10
Sydney NSW Tanya Plibersek ALP 16.89
Newcastle NSW Allan Morris ALP 17.33 v GRN
Watson NSW Leo McLeay ALP 17.47
Cunningham NSW Stephen Martin ALP 18.20
Calwell Vic Andrew Theophanous ALP 18.98
Prospect NSW Janice Crosio ALP 19.71
Lalor Vic Julia Gillard ALP 19.82
Very safe
Chifley NSW Roger Price ALP 20.89
Wills Vic Kelvin Thomson ALP 20.96
Reid NSW Laurie Ferguson ALP 21.64
Melbourne Vic Lindsay Tanner ALP 21.80
Scullin Vic Harry Jenkins ALP 21.84
Blaxland NSW Michael Hatton ALP 22.06
Maribyrnong Vic Bob Sercombe ALP 22.06
Grayndler NSW Anthony Albanese ALP 22.32
Throsby NSW Colin Hollis ALP 22.46
Gellibrand Vic Nicola Roxon ALP 25.91
Fowler NSW Julia Irwin ALP 26.33
Batman Vic Martin Ferguson ALP 26.43
Crossbench seats (1)
Calare NSW Peter Andren IND 22.31 v ALP
  1. Supplementary election

References

  1. Sakkal, Paul; Rooney, Kieran (14 November 2023). "Veteran Liberal Party MP Russell Broadbent quits party, moves to crossbench". The Sydney Morning Herald.
Category: