Misplaced Pages

Sub-national opinion polling for the next Spanish general election

Article snapshot taken from Wikipedia with creative commons attribution-sharealike license. Give it a read and then ask your questions in the chat. We can research this topic together.

Main article: Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election

In the run up to the next Spanish general election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in autonomous communities and constituencies in Spain during the term of the 15th Cortes Generales. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 23 July 2023, to the present day.

Voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical Congress of Deputies election. Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll.

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections are displayed below the percentages in a smaller font.

Autonomous communities

Andalusia

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSOE Vox Sumar Podemos SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
30 		?
25 		?
5 		?
1 		?
0 		?
0 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 43.6 37.9
(29) 		32.2
(25) 		10.9
(5) 		5.1
(0) 		2.8
(0) 		6.2
(2) 		5.7
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 66.6 36.4
25 		33.5
21 		15.3
9 		12.0
6 		– 2.9

Aragon

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSOE Vox Sumar Existe Podemos SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
8 		?
4 		?
1 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 51.1 37.1
(7) 		30.3
(5) 		11.5
(1) 		5.1
(0) 		2.9
(0) 		3.1
(0) 		5.1
(0) 		6.8
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 70.7 36.3
7 		31.1
4 		14.6
1 		12.3
1 		2.9
0 		– 5.2

Asturias

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSOE Sumar Vox Podemos SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
3 		?
3 		?
0 		?
1 		?
0 		?
0 		Tie
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 44.7 36.9
(3) 		35.1
(3) 		5.9
(0) 		10.0
(1) 		3.8
(0) 		3.3
(0) 		1.8
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 62.9 35.6
3 		34.3
2 		14.8
1 		12.5
1 		– 1.3

Balearic Islands

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSOE Sumar Vox Podemos Ara
Més 		SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
4 		?
2 		?
1 		?
1 		?
0 		?
0 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 37.7 35.8
(4) 		28.9
(3) 		4.4
(0) 		11.2
(1) 		3.1
(0) 		5.2
(0) 		5.3
(0) 		6.9
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 61.3 35.6
3 		30.2
3 		16.6
1 		15.2
1 		– 5.4

Basque Country

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSE–EE (PSOE) PNV PP Sumar Vox Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
5 		?
6 		?
5 		?
2 		?
0 		?
0 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 48.8 26.0
(6) 		22.4
(4) 		26.3
(6) 		11.6
(2) 		3.3
(0) 		2.7
(0) 		0.3
2024 regional election 21 Apr 2024 — 60.0 14.1
(3) 		34.8
(7) 		32.1
(7) 		9.2
(1) 		3.3
(0) 		2.0
(0) 		2.7
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 13–15 Sep 2023 800 ? 25.1
5 		23.1
5 		24.2
5 		12.3
2 		11.2
1 		2.9
0 		0.9
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 65.1 25.3
5 		24.0
5 		23.9
5 		11.6
2 		11.1
1 		2.6
0 		1.3

Canary Islands

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSOE PP CCa Sumar Vox Podemos SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
6 		?
6 		?
1 		?
1 		?
1 		?
0 		?
0 		Tie
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 37.2 30.5
(7) 		29.3
(5) 		10.3
(1) 		4.0
(0) 		12.0
(2) 		3.4
(0) 		6.3
(0) 		1.2
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 58.2 33.3
6 		30.4
6 		11.4
1 		10.5
1 		7.6
1 		– 2.9

Cantabria

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSOE Vox Sumar Podemos SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
3 		?
2 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 50.7 42.8
(3) 		31.0
(2) 		9.9
(0) 		3.2
(0) 		2.7
(0) 		5.7
(0) 		11.8
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 69.9 42.1
2 		33.3
2 		14.1
1 		8.5
0 		– 8.8

Castile and León

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSOE Vox Sumar Podemos SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
19 		?
12 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 51.5 44.5
(19) 		30.5
(12) 		10.5
(0) 		2.9
(0) 		2.4
(0) 		4.0
(0) 		14.0
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 69.4 41.5
18 		32.3
12 		13.8
1 		7.0
0 		– 9.2

Castilla–La Mancha

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSOE Vox Sumar Podemos SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
12 		?
8 		?
1 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 50.3 41.5
(12) 		31.7
(8) 		13.0
(1) 		3.0
(0) 		2.2
(0) 		5.0
(0) 		9.8
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 73.0 38.9
10 		34.2
8 		17.8
3 		7.4
0 		– 4.7

Catalonia

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSC Sumar PP ERC Junts Vox CUP Podem Lead
GESOP/CEO 11 Oct–24 Nov 2024 2,000 ? 33.0–
37.0
18/21 		11.0–
14.0
4/6 		12.0–
15.0
5/8 		10.0–
13.0
5/7 		10.0–
13.0
5/8 		7.0–
9.0
2/4 		3.0–
5.0
0/2 		21.0–
22.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
19 		?
3 		?
8 		?
7 		?
8 		?
2 		?
0 		?
1 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 43.5 30.6
(18) 		4.3
(1) 		13.8
(6) 		14.8
(8) 		18.0
(12) 		6.2
(2) 		– 4.6
(1) 		12.6
2024 regional election 12 May 2024 — 55.3 28.0
(16) 		5.8
(2) 		11.0
(5) 		13.7
(8) 		21.6
(14) 		8.0
(2) 		4.1
(1) 		– 6.4
GESOP/CEO 9 Feb–7 Mar 2024 2,000 ? 31.0–
35.0
17/20 		10.0–
13.0
4/6 		13.0–
16.0
6/9 		13.0–
16.0
7/8 		10.0–
13.0
5/8 		6.0–
8.0
2/4 		3.0–
4.0
0/1 		18.0–
19.0
GESOP/CEO 9 Oct–7 Nov 2023 2,000 ? 29.0–
33.0
15/18 		10.0–
13.0
3/6 		17.0–
21.0
9/11 		14.0–
17.0
7/10 		10.0–
12.0
5/8 		5.0–
7.0
1/2 		2.0–
3.0
0/1 		12.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 7–9 Sep 2023 1,000 ? 33.6
18 		14.5
7 		14.4
6 		12.4
7 		12.5
8 		7.0
2 		– 19.1
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 62.7 34.5
19 		14.0
7 		13.3
6 		13.2
7 		11.2
7 		7.8
2 		2.8
0 		20.5

Extremadura

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSOE PP Vox Sumar Podemos SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
4 		?
5 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 46.9 36.6
(4) 		41.4
(5) 		10.0
(0) 		2.5
(0) 		2.2
(0) 		3.4
(0) 		4.8
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 71.7 39.1
4 		37.9
4 		13.6
1 		6.9
0 		– 1.2

Galicia

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSdeG–PSOE Sumar BNG Vox Lead
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 24 Sep–2 Oct 2024 1,223 ? 44.8
13 		25.1
6 		9.0
2 		13.4
2 		– 19.7
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
15 		?
6 		?
0 		?
2 		?
0 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 42.0 43.6
(14) 		27.0
(7) 		2.1
(0) 		16.1
(2) 		4.4
(0) 		16.6
2024 regional election 18 Feb 2024 — 56.3 47.4
(13) 		14.1
(2) 		1.9
(0) 		31.3
(8) 		2.3
(0) 		15.8
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 29 Dec–4 Jan 2024 1,226 ? 45.7
13 		25.0
6 		10.4
2 		12.7
2 		– 20.7
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 18–26 Oct 2023 1,223 74.0 44.5
13 		27.3
6 		10.4
2 		10.3
2 		4.9
0 		17.2
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 61.4 43.6
13 		29.8
7 		10.9
2 		9.4
1 		4.9
0 		13.8

La Rioja

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSOE Vox Sumar Podemos SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
3 		?
1 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 49.1 44.6
(2) 		32.6
(2) 		8.8
(0) 		3.3
(0) 		2.4
(0) 		3.7
(0) 		12.0
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 70.2 45.6
2 		35.7
2 		9.8
0 		6.6
0 		– 9.9

Madrid

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSOE Sumar Vox Podemos SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
18 		?
10 		?
3 		?
4 		?
1 		?
1 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 52.5 40.7
(17) 		28.2
(11) 		5.8
(2) 		10.7
(4) 		4.5
(1) 		5.1
(2) 		12.5
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 69.7 40.5
16 		27.8
10 		15.5
6 		14.0
5 		– 12.7

Murcia

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSOE Vox Sumar Podemos SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
5 		?
3 		?
2 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
Sigma Dos/La 7 TV 2–11 Sep 2024 1,004 ? 44.2
5/6 		21.6
2/3 		18.5
2 		4.7
0 		4.1
0 		4.1
0 		22.6
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 46.8 42.9
(5) 		25.1
(3) 		15.9
(2) 		3.3
(0) 		2.4
(0) 		6.6
(0) 		17.8
UCAM 4–14 Dec 2023 800 65.2 44.4
5 		23.8
2 		21.9
2 		8.1
1 		– 20.6
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 68.7 41.2
4 		25.3
3 		21.8
2 		9.6
1 		– 15.9

Navarre

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSOE PP UPN Sumar Vox GBai Podemos Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
2 		?
1 		?
1 		?
1 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
0 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 50.0 28.8
(2) 		18.7
(1) 		28.0
(2) 		– 3.9
(0) 		6.7
(0) 		3.2
(0) 		3.2
(0) 		0.8
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 66.4 27.4
2 		17.2
1 		16.7
1 		15.3
1 		12.8
0 		5.7
0 		2.9
0 		10.2

Valencian Community

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSOE Vox Podemos SALF Lead
ElectoPanel/Electomanía 29 Oct–8 Nov 2024 776 ? 30.2 26.7 18.6 12.5 5.6 3.4 3.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo 20–27 Sep 2024 ? ? ?
15 		?
12 		?
3 		?
3 		?
0 		?
0 		?
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 52.0 35.8
(15) 		31.5
(13) 		11.5
(3) 		7.7
(1) 		3.0
(0) 		5.8
(1) 		4.3
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 71.5 34.9
13 		32.1
11 		15.6
5 		15.2
4 		– 2.8

Constituencies

A Coruña

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSdeG–PSOE Sumar BNG Vox Lead
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 24 Sep–2 Oct 2024 ? ? 43.7
4 		22.5
2 		10.6
1 		15.5
1 		– 21.2
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 42.7 43.2
(4) 		26.0
(3) 		2.2
(0) 		17.1
(1) 		4.5
(0) 		17.2
2024 regional election 18 Feb 2024 — 56.9 47.7
(4) 		13.0
(1) 		2.3
(0) 		32.5
(3) 		2.5
(0) 		15.2
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 29 Dec–4 Jan 2024 ? ? ?
4 		?
2 		?
1 		?
1 		– ?
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 18–26 Oct 2023 ? ? 43.7
4 		26.8
2 		11.7
1 		10.0
1 		– 16.9
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 62.9 43.1
4 		28.2
2 		12.2
1 		10.0
1 		5.1
0 		14.9

Lugo

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSdeG–PSOE BNG Sumar Vox Lead
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 24 Sep–2 Oct 2024 ? ? 53.4
3 		24.5
1 		– – – 28.9
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 40.4 49.8
(3) 		25.8
(1) 		12.9
(0) 		1.2
(0) 		4.5
(0) 		24.0
2024 regional election 18 Feb 2024 — 56.2 53.3
(3) 		17.3
(0) 		0.6
(0) 		25.0
(1) 		1.9
(0) 		28.3
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 29 Dec–4 Jan 2024 ? ? ?
3 		?
1 		– – – ?
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 18–26 Oct 2023 ? ? 53.6
3 		26.3
1 		– – – 27.3
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 59.4 50.2
3 		30.3
1 		8.7
0 		5.2
0 		4.4
0 		19.9

Ourense

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSdeG–PSOE BNG Sumar Vox Lead
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 24 Sep–2 Oct 2024 ? ? 51.5
3 		24.9
1 		– – – 26.6
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 37.4 51.0
(3) 		25.8
(1) 		11.7
(0) 		1.2
(0) 		4.5
(0) 		25.2
2024 regional election 18 Feb 2024 — 50.1 50.1
(3) 		12.4
(0) 		0.6
(0) 		25.0
(1) 		1.7
(0) 		25.1
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 29 Dec–4 Jan 2024 ? ? ?
3 		?
1 		– – – ?
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 18–26 Oct 2023 ? ? 49.7
3 		29.7
1 		– – – 20.0
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 52.9 50.0
3 		30.1
1 		8.2
0 		5.5
0 		4.9
0 		19.9

Pontevedra

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSdeG–PSOE Sumar BNG Vox Lead
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 24 Sep–2 Oct 2024 ? ? 40.8
3 		28.6
2 		10.7
1 		12.0
1 		– 12.2
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 43.6 39.5
(4) 		28.9
(2) 		2.6
(0) 		17.4
(1) 		4.2
(0) 		10.6
2024 regional election 18 Feb 2024 — 56.9 44.0
(3) 		14.8
(1) 		2.5
(0) 		34.4
(3) 		2.3
(0) 		9.6
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 29 Dec–4 Jan 2024 ? ? ?
3 		?
2 		?
1 		?
1 		– ?
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 18–26 Oct 2023 ? ? 40.5
3 		27.5
2 		11.6
1 		12.1
1 		– 13.0
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 63.7 39.7
3 		31.4
3 		13.2
1 		9.4
0 		4.8
0 		8.3

Notes

  1. ^ Within Sumar.

References

  1. ^ "El PP sube en 13 autonomías y el PSOE no logra absorber la sangría de Sumar". El Mundo (in Spanish). 30 September 2024.
  2. "Otegi cerca de ser 'lehendakari': fuerte caída del PNV y Sánchez tendría que decidir". El Mundo (in Spanish). 17 September 2023.
  3. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2024" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 27 November 2024.
  4. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2024" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 21 March 2024.
  5. "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 17 November 2023.
  6. "Carles Puigdemont ya rentabiliza la negociación con Pedro Sánchez y superaría a ERC en unas generales". El Mundo (in Spanish). 13 September 2023.
  7. ^ "Fidelidad de voto a Feijoo en unas generales, con el BNG subiendo". La Voz de Galicia (in Spanish). 6 October 2024.
  8. ^ "Feijoo volvería a ganar unas elecciones generales en Galicia subiendo hasta el 45 % del voto". La Voz de Galicia (in Spanish). 8 January 2024.
  9. "[G] GALICIA. Encuesta Sondaxe 08/01/2024: PP 45,7% (13), PSdeG-PSOE 25,0% (6), BNG 12,7% (2), SUMAR 10,4% (2)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 8 January 2024.
  10. ^ "El proceso de investidura de Sánchez desgasta electoralmente al PSOE". La Voz de Galicia (in Spanish). 28 October 2023.
  11. "[G] GALICIA. Encuesta Sondaxe 28/10/2023: PP 44,5% (13), PSdeG-PSOE 27,3% (6), SUMAR 10,4% (2), BNG 10,3% (2), VOX 4,9%". Electográfica (in Spanish). 28 October 2023.
  12. "El PP sumaría uno o dos diputados más al Congreso de celebrarse ahora elecciones generales". Onda Regional (in Spanish). 24 September 2024.
  13. "Barómetro Región de Murcia. Diciembre de 2023" (PDF). OBEDE (in Spanish). 20 December 2023.
  14. "ElectoPanel Com. Valenciana: derrumbe del PP mientras Vox y Compromís capitalizan la hecatombe popular". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 November 2024.
Spain Opinion polling for elections in Spain
General elections
Local elections
2015
2019
2023
2027
Category: