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2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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See also: 2016 United States Senate elections

2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky

← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Nominee Rand Paul Jim Gray
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,090,177 813,246
Percentage 57.27% 42.73%

County results Congressional district results Precinct resultsPaul:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Gray:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No votes

U.S. senator before election

Rand Paul
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Rand Paul
Republican

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held May 17.

Incumbent Republican Senator Rand Paul filed for re-election in December 2015, and Mayor Jim Gray of Lexington filed to run against Paul for the Senate in late January 2016. In the general election, Paul defeated Gray by 14.5 points.

Background

If Paul had become the Republican presidential (or vice-presidential) nominee, state law would have prohibited him from simultaneously running for re-election. In March 2014, the Republican-controlled Kentucky Senate passed a bill that would allow Paul to run for both offices, but the Democratic-controlled Kentucky House of Representatives declined to take it up. Paul spent his own campaign money in the 2014 legislative elections, helping Republican candidates for the State House in the hopes of flipping the chamber, thus allowing the legislature to pass the bill (Democratic governor Steve Beshear's veto could have been overridden with a simple majority). However, the Democrats retained their 54–46 majority in the State House.

Paul was running for both president and re-election, and considered several options to get around the law preventing him from appearing twice on the ballot, but he dropped his presidential bid to focus on re-election to the Senate on February 3, 2016. His supporters said the law does not apply to federal offices and suggested changing the May Kentucky presidential primaries to March caucuses would allow Paul to run for re-election and continue to seek the presidential nomination. However, this option would have only worked until the presidential primaries were over, as he would still have had to appear on the ballot twice in November if he had won the Republican presidential nomination. Other options that were open to him included running for both offices and leaving it to Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes to remove him from the ballot; attempting to replace Grimes in the 2015 elections with a Republican secretary of state who would not enforce the law; filing a lawsuit against the law; and running for president in every state except for Kentucky, where he could have run for re-election and hoped to win the presidency without Kentucky's electoral college votes.

In a letter to Kentucky Republicans in February 2015, Paul asked them to allow him the same option afforded to Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, who ran for re-election at the same time as vice president on Mitt Romney's ticket. David M. Drucker of The Washington Examiner reported in the same month that Kentucky Republican leaders were concerned that Paul's actions could mean that if he wins the Republican presidential nomination and is renominated for the Senate, he could either be disqualified from the Senate ballot and the state party blocked from replacing him, which would hand the seat to the Democrats, or he could be disqualified from the presidential ballot, which would see the Democratic presidential nominee pick up Kentucky's 8 electoral college votes.

In August 2015, the central committee of the Kentucky Republican Party voted to hold a caucus in 2016, allowing Paul to simultaneously run for re-nomination for his seat and the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. State law would still bar Paul from appearing twice on the ballot in the general election. However, on February 3, 2016, Rand Paul dropped out of the 2016 presidential campaign, allowing him to focus on his reelection bid.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • James Gould, financial analyst and Navy veteran
  • Rand Paul, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Stephen Slaughter, engineer

Declined

Endorsements

Rand Paul

Governors

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

  • Andy Barr, U.S. Representative from Kentucky
  • Brett Guthrie, U.S. Representative from Kentucky
  • Thomas Massie, U.S. Representative from Kentucky
  • Ron Paul, former U.S. Representative from Texas, 1988/2008/2012 presidential candidate, and Rand Paul's father
  • Hal Rogers, U.S. Representative from Kentucky
  • Ed Whitfield, U.S. Representative from Kentucky

Statewide politicians

Individuals

Organizations

Results

Results by county   Paul
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rand Paul (incumbent) 169,180 84.79%
Republican James Gould 16,611 8.33%
Republican Stephen Slaughter 13,728 6.88%
Total votes 199,519 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Jim Gray, Mayor of Lexington
  • Rory Houlihan
  • Jeff Kender, steelworker
  • Ron Leach, physician assistant, U.S. Army veteran, and nominee for KY-02 in 2014
  • Tom Recktenwald, retired technology teacher and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014
  • Grant Short, pilot and businessman
  • Sellus Wilder, former Frankfort City Commissioner

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Gray

Organizations

Sellus Wilder

Organizations

Individuals

Results

Results by county   Gray
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jim Gray 240,613 58.73%
Democratic Sellus Wilder 52,728 12.87%
Democratic Ron Leach 39,026 9.53%
Democratic Tom Recktenwald 21,910 5.35%
Democratic Grant Short 21,558 5.26%
Democratic Jeff Kender 20,239 4.94%
Democratic Rory Houlihan 13,585 3.32%
Total votes 409,659 100.00%

General election

Debates

Dates Location Paul Gray Link
October 31, 2016 Lexington, Kentucky Participant Participant

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Safe R November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report Safe R November 3, 2016
Daily Kos Safe R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics Likely R November 7, 2016

Polling

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rand
Paul (R)
Jim
Gray (D)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,315 ± 4.6% 50% 46% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 1,155 ± 4.6% 51% 46% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 843 ± 4.6% 52% 45% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 635 ± 4.6% 50% 46% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 499 ± 4.6% 51% 44% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 424 ± 4.6% 52% 46% 2%
Western Kentucky University October 25–30, 2016 602 ± 4.0% 55% 39% 6%
RunSwitch Public Relations (R) October 26–28, 2016 811 ± 3.4% 52% 42% 6%
Cofounder Pulse Poll October 26–28, 2016 1,016 ± 3.8% 35% 28% 38%
Cofounder Pulse Poll October 12–15, 2016 816 ± 3.4% 33% 27% 40%
Cofounder Pulse Poll September 14–16, 2016 834 ± 3.2% 33% 25% 42%
Cofounder Pulse Poll August 2–4, 2016 508 ± 3.6% 59% 41% 0%
Harper Polling July 31–August 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 50% 38% 13%
Cofounder Pulse Poll March 30–April 1, 2016 758 ± 3.0% 28% 26% 47%
Hypothetical polling

with Thomas Massie

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Thomas
Massie (R)
Steve
Beshear (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 38% 43% 19%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 30% 45% 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Thomas
Massie (R)
Crit
Luallen (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 37% 35% 28%

with Rand Paul

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rand
Paul (R)
Steve
Beshear (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 49% 39% 12%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 50% 41% 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rand
Paul (R)
Crit
Luallen (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 51% 37% 12%

Results

United States Senate election in Kentucky, 2016
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Rand Paul (incumbent) 1,090,177 57.27% +1.58%
Democratic Jim Gray 813,246 42.73% −1.53%
Write-in 42 0.00% N/A
Total votes 1,903,465 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Paul won 4 of 6 congressional districts, with the remaining 2 going to Gray, including one that elected a Republican.

District Paul Gray Representative
1st 66% 34% James Comer
2nd 61% 39% Brett Guthrie
3rd 40% 60% John Yarmuth
4th 66% 34% Thomas Massie
5th 66% 34% Hal Rogers
6th 48% 52% Andy Barr

References

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  2. Berman, Matt (April 2, 2014). "Marco Rubio Won't Run for Senate in 2016 if He Runs for President". National Journal. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
  3. Youngman, Sam (March 18, 2014). "Kentucky Senate passes bill to let Rand Paul run for re-election and president in 2016". www.kentucky.com. Kentucky.com. Retrieved April 18, 2014.
  4. Silverleib, Alan (April 17, 2014). "Dead for now: Kentucky bill allowing twin Paul 2016 runs". www.cnn.com. CNN. Archived from the original on April 18, 2014. Retrieved April 17, 2014.
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  20. ^ "Previewing Kentucky's 2016 U.S. Senate Race". WDRB. April 18, 2014. Archived from the original on November 7, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  21. ^ Livingston, Abby (July 17, 2013). "Grimes Is Key to Kentucky Democrats' Posterity | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
  22. ^ Paul, Rand (July 17, 2013). "Rand Paul to Seek Re-Election to the U.S. Senate". Rand Paul for Senate. Retrieved December 2, 2012.
  23. Ditto, Jessica (December 4, 2015). "Governor-Elect Bevin Names Hal Heiner Education and Workforce Development Cabinet Secretary". Archived from the original on December 8, 2015. Retrieved December 4, 2015.
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  26. Arco, Matt (February 3, 2016). "Christie says he'll gladly campaign for nemesis Rand Paul's Senate bid". NJ.com.
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  28. Palin, Sarah. "I was proud to be an early supporter of Sen. Paul's first campaign for US Senate in 2010 and today am pledging to do all I can to make sure this strong leader returns to the Senate in 2016". Facebook.
  29. "Marco Rubio: He's probably going to focus on his Senate re-election in Kentucky and we have to make sure that he's re-elected". YouTube. February 3, 2016.
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  43. McKenzie, Elijah (March 18, 2016). "Interview: Sellus Wilder on how grassroots activism helped stop the Bluegrass Pipeline". Broken Sidewalk.
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  45. "Adkins files for re-election in 99th House District". The Independent. January 15, 2016. Retrieved January 15, 2016.
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  53. Lisa Autry (December 4, 2014). "It's Still Possible Kentucky Lt. Gov. Crit Luallen Might Run For Office Again Someday". WFPL News. Archived from the original on December 9, 2014. Retrieved December 5, 2014.
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  56. Storm, Nick (April 8, 2016). "Environmental PAC endorses Sellus Wilder in Democratic U.S. Senate primary". CN 2. Retrieved April 20, 2016.
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  59. Full debate
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  62. "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
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  66. SurveyMonkey
  67. SurveyMonkey
  68. SurveyMonkey
  69. SurveyMonkey
  70. SurveyMonkey
  71. Western Kentucky University
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  73. Cofounder Pulse Poll Archived January 31, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  74. Cofounder Pulse Poll Archived October 22, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  75. Cofounder Pulse Poll Archived October 23, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  76. Cofounder Pulse Poll Archived August 12, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  77. Harper Polling
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  79. ^ Public Policy Polling
  80. ^ Public Policy Polling
  81. "Official Results" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved December 20, 2016.
  82. "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 19, 2024.

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