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2008 United States Senate election in Oregon

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Nominee Jeff Merkley Gordon Smith David Brownlow Party Democratic Republican Constitution Popular vote 864,392 805,159 92,565 Percentage 48.90% 45.55% 5.24%

County results Congressional district resultsMerkley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70% Smith:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election Gordon Smith Republican Elected U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley Democratic

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v t e

The 2008 United States Senate election in Oregon was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Gordon H. Smith sought reelection to a third term. Smith was the only Republican Senator from the West Coast (excluding Alaska) and the only Republican holding statewide office in Oregon. He was opposed by Democrat Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, and David Brownlow of the Constitution Party of Oregon. Merkley won by a narrow margin, with Smith not conceding until two days after the election. Merkley became the first Democrat to win this seat since 1960, and since Smith was the only Republican holding statewide office in Oregon at the time, this was the first time since 1860 that no Republicans won or held statewide office in Oregon. Merkley's inauguration marked the first time since 1967 that Democrats held both of Oregon's United States Senate seats.

This was one of the most competitive races during the 2008 United States Senate elections, and the race was the most expensive in Oregon history. As of late October 2008, advertising related to the race exceeded $27 million, outstripping the $15 million spent on a 2007 tobacco tax ballot measure and the $14.7 million spent in the gubernatorial election of 2006.

Republican primary

Candidates

• Gordon Leitch, ophthalmologist
• Gordon Smith, incumbent U.S. Senator

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

• Jeff Merkley, Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives
• Steve Novick, attorney
• Candy Neville, real estate broker
• Roger Obrist, construction worker
• Pavel Goberman, perennial candidate
• David Loera, doctor

Campaign

In the Democratic primary, although Democrats held all statewide offices in Oregon, there was no clear Democratic challenger; former Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber indicated early on that he was not interested. In January 2007, while the campaign was still in its infancy, Portland lawyer and political activist Steve Novick wrote a lengthy critique of Gordon Smith's record in the Portland Willamette Week. The article outlined a strategy to beat Smith, who Novick argued was actually more vulnerable than appeared. On April 18, 2007, Novick formally announced his candidacy for Senate.

By the end of May, both Congressmen Earl Blumenauer and Peter DeFazio had announced they were not interested in entering the race, depleting what was considered by many the "first-tier" list of candidates for the position leaving Democrats searching for more candidates. With no high-profile Democrats in the race, it was believed by that the most likely candidates would come from the state legislature. Since the legislature was still in session at the time it was considered unlikely that any prominent lawmakers would jump into the race until the end of June or later. Of those, Jeff Merkley, then Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives was considered to be the most likely to challenge Smith due to rumors that he had been in talks with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).

The rumors that Merkley was being courted by the DSCC were confirmed when it was reported that he had travelled to the East Coast to discuss a possible run at the invitation of Senator Charles Schumer of New York, who as chairman of the DSCC was in charge of recruiting possible challengers to take on Smith. Around the same time, State Senator Alan Bates from Jackson County was reported to be contemplating running for the Democratic nomination. Eventually Bates decided against running and on August 1, 2007, Merkley filed papers, officially entering the race.

Merkley and Novick gave back-to-back speeches at the yearly summit of the Democratic Party of Oregon in Sunriver. There Novick threw a political jab, challenging Merkley's statements that he had been an opponent of the war from the start by pointing to his support of a Republican-drafted non-binding resolution in 2003, two days after the invasion began, that praised President Bush for the invasion of Iraq and the efforts of the troops and prayed for their safety. The critique drew noticeably negative reactions from the crowd and Merkley won a straw poll at the summit, 103 to 50 for Novick.

Merkley went on to dismiss the criticism, pointing out that Legislative resolutions carry no force of law and are only statements of principle, that a legislator could freely pick and choose which parts of the resolution to support, and that he made clear that "you stand up and clarify what parts you're supporting and what parts you're opposed to and I did that more clearly than any member on the floor of the House."

By the end of November 2007, six Democratic candidates had filed papers to run for the seat: Novick, Merkley, real estate agent Candy Neville of Eugene, retired mental health counselor David Loera of Salem, retired construction worker Roger Obrist of Damascus, and perennial candidate Pavel Goberman of Beaverton. Some pointed discussions ensued among the candidates over a debate schedule and formats.

On January 22, 2008, four of the Democratic candidates had their first debate in Pendleton, Oregon hosted by the East Oregonian newspaper.

Merkley went on to defeat Novick and the four other candidates in the Democratic primary on May 20, 2008.

Results

General election

Candidates

Major

• Jeff Merkley (D), Speaker of the State House
• Gordon Smith (R), incumbent U.S. Senator

Minor

• David Brownlow (C), at its statewide nominating convention on June 7, 2008, the Constitution Party of Oregon named him as its Senate nominee.

Predictions

Polling

Results

County results

Although Smith carried all but eight of Oregon's 36 counties, one of the counties he lost was Multnomah County, home to Portland. Ultimately, Merkley's 146,568-vote margin in Multnomah, his home county, proved too much for Smith to overcome; it was more than double Merkley's overall margin of 59,233 votes.

Constitution Party candidate David Brownlow was seen by some as a spoiler, as his number of votes was more than the margin between Merkley and Smith. Brownlow drew votes away from opponents of the Iraq War, which Smith supported.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Clatsop (largest city: Astoria)
• Columbia (largest city: St. Helens)
• Hood River (largest city: Hood River)
• Lane (largest city: Eugene)
• Lincoln (largest city: Newport)
• Benton (largest city: Corvallis)
• Washington (largest city: Hillsboro)

See also

• List of United States senators from Oregon
• 2008 United States Senate elections
• 2008 Oregon legislative election
• 2008 United States presidential election in Oregon

References

1. Esteve, Harry; Crombie, Noelle (November 6, 2008). "Jeff Merkley plunges into his new job in the U.S. Senate". Politics & Elections. The Oregonian. Retrieved November 6, 2008.
2. Phillips, Kate (June 13, 2008). "G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections" (Blog). The Caucus. The New York Times. Retrieved December 22, 2008.
3. Mapes, Jeff (October 23, 2008). "Outside interests snag airtime". Local news. The Oregonian. Retrieved December 22, 2008.
4. ^ "Content Manager WebDrawer - 2008 Primary Election Official Results".
5. Novick, Steve (January 31, 2007). "If I ran". Cover story. Willamette Week. Archived from the original (Guest article) on April 28, 2007. Retrieved May 6, 2007.
6. Chisholm, Kari (April 18, 2007). "He's in: Steve Novick takes on Gordon Smith" (Blog). Open Discussion. BlueOregon. Retrieved December 20, 2008.
7. ^ Moore, Scott (May 24, 2007). "Senate, Anyone? Democrats Search for a Candidate" (Article). News: City. The Portland Mercury. Retrieved December 22, 2008.
8. Cain, Brad (June 29, 2007). "Oregon speaker looks at taking on GOP senator in 2008". The Associated Press. KGW News. Archived from the original (Article) on June 23, 2007. Retrieved December 22, 2008.
9. staff (August 23, 2007). "Golden out of race". Eugene Weekly. Archived from the original (Article) on October 14, 2008. Retrieved December 22, 2008.
10. staff (August 1, 2007). "Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley Files to Run for United States Senate". Jeff Merkley for Oregon. Archived from the original (Press release) on November 27, 2008. Retrieved December 21, 2008.
11. ^ Mapes, Jeff (October 7, 2007). "Novick jabs at Merkley on Iraq vote" (Blog). Mapes on politics. The Oregonian. Retrieved December 22, 2008.
12. ^ Esteve, Harry (November 26, 2007). "U.S. Senate race: Democrats debate debates" (Article). Politics & Elections. The Oregonian. Retrieved December 22, 2008.
13. Walsh, Edward (May 21, 2008). "Merkley scores chance to take on Smith". The Oregonian. Archived from the original on May 30, 2008. Retrieved May 21, 2008.
14. "Constitution Party of Oregon". Retrieved September 25, 2008.
15. "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
16. Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
17. "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
18. "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
19. Riley Research Archived September 27, 2007, at the Wayback Machine
20. SurveyUSA
21. Oregon Live
22. Rasmussen Reports
23. Rasmussen Reports
24. Rasmussen Reports
25. ^ Rasmussen Reports
26. Survey USA
27. DHM
28. Survey USA
29. Survey USA
30. DHM
31. Survey USA
32. Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 4, 2008" (PDF). pp. 52 & 53.
33. "Brownlow could be spoiler in Ore. Senate race". September 15, 2009. Retrieved May 7, 2020.

External links

• Elections Division from the Oregon Secretary of State
• U.S. Congress candidates for Oregon at Project Vote Smart
• Oregon U.S. Senate race from Congress.org
• Oregon U.S. Senate race from CQ Politics
• Oregon U.S. Senate race from The Green Papers
• Oregon U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
• Oregon U.S. Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
• Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets
• Smith (R-i) vs Merkley (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com

• United States Senate elections in Oregon
• 2008 United States Senate elections
• 2008 Oregon elections