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2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election

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2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election
← 2011 October 24, 2015 (first round)
November 21, 2015 (runoff)		 2019 →
Turnout39.2% Decrease (first round)
40.2% Increase (runoff)
 
Nominee John Bel Edwards David Vitter
Party Democratic Republican
First round 444,517
39.89% 		256,300
23.00%
Runoff 646,924
56.11% 		505,940
43.89%
 
Candidate Scott Angelle Jay Dardenne
Party Republican Republican
First round 214,982
19.29% 		166,656
14.96%
Runoff Eliminated Eliminated
First round parish results Runoff parish resultsRunoff congressional district resultsRunoff precinct resultsEdwards:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%     >90%
Vitter:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Angelle:      30–40%      60–70%
Other:      Tie      No Data
Governor before election

Bobby Jindal
Republican

Elected Governor

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

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The 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election was held on November 21, 2015, to elect the governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Republican governor Bobby Jindal was not eligible to run for re-election to a third term because of term limits established by the Louisiana Constitution.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate regardless of their party affiliation. As no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election on October 24, 2015, a runoff election was held on November 21, 2015, between the top two candidates in the primary. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).

The runoff election featured Democrat John Bel Edwards, Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives, and Republican U.S. senator David Vitter, as they were the top two vote getters in the primary. Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, both Republicans, were eliminated in the jungle primary.

In the runoff, which was held November 21, 2015, Edwards defeated Vitter by a count of 56.11% to 43.89% and was sworn in on January 11, 2016. Edwards became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won her third term in the U.S. Senate in 2008; his victory also came one year after national wins for the Republican Party in congressional and state elections. The election was one of the most expensive in state history, with over $50 million spent by candidates and outside groups. As of 2024 this was Most Recent election where a democrat had won govenorship by double digit in run off or even winning Majority of Parish

Candidates

Republican Party

Filed

Declined

Democratic Party

Filed

Declined

Ineligible

  • Edwin Edwards, former governor, U.S. representative and state senator (ineligible due to 2000 felony convictions for bribery and racketeering)

Independents

Filed

  • Beryl Billiot, restaurant owner and former Marine
  • Jeremy Odom, minister
  • Eric Paul Orgeron

Declined

Endorsements

Scott Angelle

Organizations

  • Terrebonne Republican Party
  • Republican Party of East Baton Rouge Parish
  • Livingston Parish Republican Party

Publishers

  • Greater Baton Rouge Business Report
  • The Hayride, Louisiana Conservative Political Commentary Site

Public Figures

Politicians

  • Paul Hardy, 48th lieutenant governor of Louisiana
  • Fred Mills, Louisiana state senator
  • Guy Cormier, St. Martin Parish President
Jay Dardenne

Politicians

John Bel Edwards

Organizations

Politicians

Newspapers

David Vitter

Organizations

Politicians

Jungle primary

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Scott
Angelle (R) 		Jay
Dardenne (R) 		John Bel
Edwards (D) 		John
Kennedy (R) 		Mitch
Landrieu (D) 		David
Vitter (R) 		Other Undecided
MarblePortLLC October 20–21, 2015 1464 ± 3% 12.7% 14.1% 40.5% — — 28.5% — 4.3%
MRI October 15–19, 2015 600 ± ?% 17% 14% 36% — — 19% 2% 12%
Harper Polling (R) October 16–17, 2015 612 ± 3.9% 14% 14% 36% — — 26% — 9%
KPLC/Raycom Media October 7–13, 2015 602 ± 4% 7% 8% 24% — — 21% — 37%
The Advocate/WWL-TV September 20–23, 2015 800 ± 3.46% 15% 14% 24% — — 24% — 18%
Public Policy Polling September 21–22, 2015 616 ± 4% 15% 14% 28% — — 27% — 17%
Verne Kennedy July 27–31, 2015 600 ± 4% 25% 12% 20% — — 22% — 21%
MarblePort June 17, 2015 1415 ± 2.6% 11.1% 10.4% 28.8% — — 34.1% — 15.6%
Verne Kennedy May 27–29, 2015 700 ± 3.5% 17% 12% 29% — — 29% — 13%
SM&O Research May 5, 2015 600 ± 4.0% 6% 17% 25% — — 38% — 16%
MarblePort March 17, 2015 1,071 ± 2.99% 7% 14% 31% — — 34% — 14%
Triumph March 5, 2015 1,655 ± 2.4% 7% 15% 33% — — 35% — 11%
NSO Research* January 10–13, 2015 600 ± 4% 2% 10% 20% 13% — 24% — 32%
SM&O Research December 9–11, 2014 600 ± ? 3.1% 18.6% 25.7% — — 36.3% — 16.3%
Suffolk October 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 3% 9.8% 3.8% — 22.6% 31.6% — 29.2%
Multi-Quest October 22–24, 2014 606 ± 4% 2.3% 10.9% 4% — — 25.9% 3.8% 53.1%
SM&O Research April 28–30, 2014 600 ± ? 3.8% 10.5% 5.5% 11.7% 28.9% 28.9% — 10.6%
PSB April 2014 601 ± ? — 14% 17% 8% — 18% 14% 29%
Magellan March 24–26, 2014 600 ± 4.1% — 13.1% 4.6% 8.5% 26.4% 27.6% — 19.8%
V/C Research February 20–25, 2014 600 ± 4% — 11% 8% 9% 33% 25% — 15%
Kitchens Group** February 10–12, 2014 600 ± 4.2% — 9% 21% 7% — 26% — 38%
WPAOR^ November 12–14, 2013 800 ± 3.5% — 12% 2% 9% 20% 25% 11% 11
— 22% — — 29% 35% — 14%
SM&O Research November 6–12, 2013 600 ± 4% 2.1% 18% 7.9% 18.9% — 30.3% — 22.9%
Magellan October 2–4, 2012 2,862 ± 1.9% — 6.5% — 7.2% 29.4% 31.1% 9.1% 16.7%
  • * Internal poll for the John Kennedy campaign
  • ** Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign
  • ^ Internal poll for the Jay Dardenne campaign

Results

Louisiana gubernatorial election, 2015
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Bel Edwards 444,517 39.89
Republican David Vitter 256,300 23.00
Republican Scott Angelle 214,982 19.29
Republican Jay Dardenne 166,656 14.96
Democratic Cary Deaton 11,763 1.06
Democratic S.L. Simpson 7,420 0.67
Independent Beryl Billiot 5,694 0.51
Independent Jeremy Odom 4,756 0.43
Independent Eric Orgeron 2,248 0.2
Total votes 1,114,336 100

Runoff

Campaign

Sign for John Bel Edwards

A debate between Edwards and Vitter was held on November 10 by Louisiana Public Broadcasting and the Council for a Better Louisiana.

Early voting was possible from November 7 until November 14. Despite having one fewer day due to Veterans Day, turnout was significantly higher compared to the primary election early voting, especially among black voters and in urban parishes.

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Lean D (flip) November 13, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report Tossup November 6, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D (flip) November 19, 2015
DKE Tossup October 29, 2015

Polling

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		David
Vitter (R) 		John Bel
Edwards (D) 		Undecided
JMC Analytics November 19, 2015 614 ± 3.9% 43% 47% 10%
RRH Elections November 12–16, 2015 359 ± 5% 42% 48% 10%
JMC Analytics November 14–16, 2015 635 ± 3.9% 35% 51% 13%
JMC Analytics November 14–16, 2015 635 ± 4% 38% 54% 8%
Market Research Insight November 11–14, 2015 600 ± 4% 38% 53% 9%
Hayride/MarblePort November 11, 2015 978 ± 3.1% 42% 48% 10%
Market Research Insight November 11, 2015 600 ± 4% 38% 52% 10%
UNO Survey Research Center November 2–8, 2015 600 ± 4% 34% 56% 10%
Triumph Campaigns November 5, 2015 1,818 ± 3% 41% 49% 10%
WVLA/JMC Analytics October 28–31, 2015 600 ± 4% 32% 52% 16%
Market Research Insight October 27–28, 2015 600 ± 4.1% 38% 54% 8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove October 26–28, 2015 700 ± 3.7% 40% 52% 7%
KPLC/Raycom Media October 7–13, 2015 602 ± 4% 33% 52% ?%
The Advocate/WWL-TV September 20–23, 2015 800 ± 3.46% 41% 45% ?%
Public Policy Polling September 21–22, 2015 616 ± 4% 38% 50% 12%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 50% 32% 18%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 52% 30% 17%
The Kitchen Group* February 10–12, 2014 600 ± 4.2% 38% 32% 31%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 51% 30% 19%

*Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign

Hypothetical polling

Dardenne vs. Landrieu

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jay
Dardenne (R) 		Mitch
Landrieu (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 43% 39% 18%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 43% 43% 15%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 46% 36% 18%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 35% 45% 20%
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 42% 44% 15%

Duke vs. Edwards

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		David
Duke (R) 		Edwin
Edwards (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 15% 62% 23%

Vitter vs. Landrieu

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		David
Vitter (R) 		Mitch
Landrieu (D) 		Undecided
SM&O Research April 28–30, 2014 600 ± ? 52.8% 41.8% 5.5%
Gravis Marketing November 12–14, 2014 643 ± 4% 54% 36% 10%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 47% 38% 14%
Gravis Marketing September 5–9, 2014 426 ± 5% 46% 44% 11%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 48% 44% 8%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 50% 37% 13%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 42% 45% 14%
Harper Polling August 14–15, 2013 596 ± 4.01% 45% 43% 12%
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 44% 44% 13%
Magellan Strategies October 2–4, 2012 2,862 ± 1.9% 45.2% 39.8% 15%

Results

Edwards' win was the first statewide win for Democrats in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won a third term to the Senate in 2008. He performed surprisingly well for a Democratic candidate in Louisiana, given that the Cook PVI for the state was R+12 at the time of the election and most Republican candidates won in landslides in prior statewide elections. He performed especially well in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport), East Baton Rouge Parish, (home of Baton Rouge), and in the reliably Democratic Orleans Parish, (home of New Orleans). Turnout was slightly higher in the November run-off than in the October jungle primary.

Louisiana gubernatorial election runoff, 2015
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Bel Edwards 646,924 56.11%
Republican David Vitter 505,940 43.89%
Total votes 1,152,864 100%
Democratic gain from Republican

By congressional district

Edwards won 5 of 6 congressional districts including 4 congress districts held by republican.

District Edwards Vitter Representative
1st 43.30% 56.70% Steve Scalise
2nd 82.62% 17.38% Cedric Richmond
3rd 50.11% 49.89% Charles Boustany
4th 52.94% 47.06% John Fleming
5th 53.78% 46.22% Ralph Abraham
6th 53.83% 46.17% Garret Graves

See also

References

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  68. ^ Public Policy Polling
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  82. Newell Normand (R) 10%, Mike Strain (R) 4%
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  87. Rodney Alexander (R) 4%, Foster Campbell (D) 2%, John Georges (D) 2%, Jim Bernhard (D) 1%, Gerald Long (R) 1%, Newell Normand (R) 1%
  88. SM&O Research
  89. Magellan
  90. John Georges (D) 6%, Mike Strain (R) 3.1%
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  99. RRH Elections
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  101. JMC Analytics
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  103. Hayride/MarblePort
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  105. "UNO Survey Research Center" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 17, 2015. Retrieved November 12, 2015.
  106. "Triumph Campaigns" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 7, 2015.
  107. WVLA/JMC Analytics
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  109. "Anzalone Liszt Grove". Archived from the original on November 1, 2015. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
  110. ^ Public Policy Polling
  111. ^ Public Policy Polling
  112. The Kitchen Group*
  113. ^ Public Policy Polling
  114. ^ Public Policy Polling
  115. ^ Public Policy Polling
  116. Gravis Marketing
  117. Gravis Marketing
  118. Harper Polling
  119. Magellan Strategies
  120. "Louisiana Secretary of State - Election Results".
  121. "Our Campaigns".

External links

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