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2014 United States Senate election in Virginia
← 2008 November 4, 2014 2020 →
Turnout41.6% (of registered voters)
 
Nominee Mark Warner Ed Gillespie
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,073,667 1,055,940
Percentage 49.15% 48.34%
County and independent city results Congressional district results Precinct resultsWarner:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Gillespie:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Mark Warner
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Warner
Democratic

Elections in Virginia
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The 2014 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner ran for re-election to a second term. He was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. The Republicans nominated lobbyist and former chairman of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie. Also running was Libertarian nominee Robert Sarvis, an attorney and businessman.

Prior to the election, most forecasters considered the race to be uncompetitive and polling showed Warner with a significant lead over Gillespie due to Warner's inherent advantages such as incumbency, name recognition, and fundraising. Despite this, the race was much closer than expected, with Warner narrowly winning by a margin of just 0.8% and 17,727 votes. Gillespie conceded the race on November 7, 2014.

Warner's very narrow margin of victory made this the closest race of the 2014 Senate election cycle. Additionally, it is the last time Loudoun County has voted for the Republican candidate in a statewide election, and the last time Alleghany County has voted for the Democratic candidate in a statewide election.

Background

Businessman Mark Warner first ran for the U.S. Senate in 1996, losing to incumbent Republican John Warner (no relation), but by a closer than expected margin, 53% to 47%. He then ran for Governor of Virginia in 2001, winning with 52% of the vote. After John Warner declined to run for a sixth term in 2008, Mark Warner ran to succeed him. Unopposed in the Democratic primary, he defeated the Republican nominee, fellow former governor Jim Gilmore, in a landslide, 65% to 34%.

Warner was widely expected to run for the Democratic nomination in the 2008 presidential election, but declined to do so, and also declined to be considered as a vice-presidential candidate. He considered running for governor again in 2013 but decided against it, and ran for re-election to a second term. Opinion polls consistently ranked Warner as the most popular elected officials in Virginia, with an approval rating consistently in the mid-60s. This, combined with his large campaign war chest, meant that he was widely dubbed "unbeatable".

Democratic primary

Warner was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Mark Warner

Elected officials

  • John Warner, former Republican U.S. senator from Virginia
  • Brandon Bell, former Republican state senator
  • Robert Bloxom, former Republican state delegate and former Secretary of Agriculture and Forestry
  • Preston Bryant, former Republican state delegate and former Secretary of Natural Resources
  • Vince Callahan, former Republican state delegate
  • John Chichester, former Republican state senator and Republican nominee for lieutenant governor in 1985
  • Jim Dillard, former Republican state delegate
  • Clint Miller, former Republican state delegate and Republican candidate for governor in 1993
  • Linwood Holton, former Republican governor of Virginia
  • Russ Potts, former Republican state senator and independent candidate for governor in 2005
  • Fred Quayle, former Republican state senator
  • Ann Rhodes, former Republican state delegate
  • Edgar Robb, former Republican state senator and former Albemarle County Sheriff
  • Jack Rollison, former Republican state delegate
  • Bob Tata, former Republican state delegate
  • Katherine Waddell, former Republican state delegate

Republican convention

The Republican Party of Virginia's governing body voted in May 2013 to select its 2014 U.S. Senate nominee at a convention. The convention was held on June 7, 2014, in Roanoke, Virginia.

Candidates

Results

Ed Gillespie and Shak Hill were the main players at the convention. A 50% majority was required to receive the nomination; if no candidate achieved such a majority, voting would move to a second or third round. Results of the first ballot of voting were announced as they were finalized by congressional district, and after it became clear that Gillespie was going to win (he had about 60% of the vote with about 90% counted), Hill conceded the race and motioned to nominate Gillespie by acclamation, asking his supporters to support Gillespie. Gillespie was then nominated by acclamation.

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Ed Gillespie

Individuals

Shak Hill

Individuals

Organizations

Libertarian convention

The Libertarian Party of Virginia held its convention on February 8, 2014. The delegates at the convention nominated Robert Sarvis as the Party's candidate for the U.S. Senate. Sarvis received notification from the Virginia State Board of Elections that he had achieved statewide ballot access on June 26, 2014.

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Robert Sarvis

Elected Officials

Individuals

Organizations

Write-in

Candidates

Declared

General election

Fundraising

Top contributors

According to OpenSecrets.org, Democrat Mark Warner's top five contributors are JPMorgan Chase, Dominion Resources, Altria Group, Norfolk Southern, and The Blackstone Group. Republican Ed Gillespie's top five contributors are BlueCross/BlueShield, BGR Group, The Blackstone Group, Jennmar Corporation, and the Altria Group. Thus, Warner and Gillespie share the Altria Group and the Blackstone Group as top five contributors. Libertarian Robert Sarvis is primarily funded through self-financing and individual contributions.

Third quarter reports

After third quarter reports, the last before the election, Warner raised an additional $2 million. Gillespie pulled various television ads, stating "he does not have the financial resources" to match Warner.

Outside spending

In the debates, Warner said, "I think we ought to get rid of all Super PACs and all outside money." However, throughout the campaign, Super PACs supported Warner while no comparable Super PAC backed Gillespie. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, as of October 23, outside groups spent $2,571,319 to influence the election.

Campaign finance reports

Campaign Finance Reports through December 31
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand
Mark Warner $17,098,544 $18,105,322 $143,390
Ed Gillespie $7,892,202 $7,873,079 $19,123
Robert Sarvis $82,813 $84,949 $-2,136
Source: OpenSecrets

Cost per vote

Warner spent $18,105,322 for the election and received 1,073,667 votes at $16.86 per vote. Gillespie spent $7,873,079 during the campaign and received 1,055,940 votes at $7.46 per vote. Sarvis spent $84,949 and received 53,102 votes at $1.60 per vote.

Debates and forums

Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Ed Gillespie agreed to three debates and six forums. Gillespie also agreed to three additional debates, but Warner declined. Libertarian Robert Sarvis, who submitted a petition with over 1,000 signatures to debate organizers, challenged Warner and Gillespie to include him in the debates. In August, Warner accepted the challenge and requested that Sarvis be invited to the remaining debates; Gillespie did not respond. In the end, Sarvis was not invited to any of the debates and was only invited to one joint appearance.

Confirmed debates

Virginia Bar Association
The Virginia Bar Association (VBA) debate occurred at 11 a.m. on July 26 at The Greenbrier in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia. PBS NewsHour co-anchor Judy Woodruff moderated the debate, which was free and open to public. The VBA decided to invite only Warner and Gillespie. VBA president John L. Walker III said: "They are the only candidates who qualify under our criteria for invitations." In response to not being invited, Sarvis said, "Virginia voters lost". In addition, some political observers, like the Franklin Center for Government and Public Integrity's project watchdog.org, noted that issues like surveillance and cronyism were missing from the debate. Fewer than 800 people watched the debate on PBS' livestream, which was characterised by Politico as civil, with both candidates "at their best". The debate was later replayed multiple times on C-SPAN.

Fairfax Chamber of Commerce
The Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce hosted a debate on October 7. The debate was moderated by Chuck Todd, the host of "Meet the Press." The debate was broadcast live on WRC-TV in Northern Virginia, and was offered to all NBC affiliates in Virginia. In their second debate, Warner and Gillespie aired their differences on marriage equality, the Affordable Care Act, and America's foreign policy challenges. Both candidates appeared uncomfortable at times. Gillespie lashed out against Warner for voting with President Barack Obama "97 percent of the time"; Warner fired back, calling it a "bogus charge". Sarvis was not invited.

The People's Debate
The League of Women Voters of Virginia and American Association of Retired Persons of Virginia hosted "The People's Debate" on October 13 in Richmond, Virginia. The debate was offered by WTVR-TV (CBS) and WCVE-TV (Virginia Public Television) to all of their affiliates. In the third and final debate, the candidates discussed the economy, education, Social Security, healthcare, and campaign finance reform. The debate was heated at times, particularly when Warner spoke against Gillespie's past lobbying experience; Gillespie focused on Warner's recent admission that he called State Senator Phillip Puckett and spoke about jobs for Puckett's daughter. Sarvis was not invited to the debate. Sarvis described the debate as the "no people's debate" because he was "the only candidate not bought and paid for by corporate interests."

Confirmed forums

Arlington Civic Federation
The Arlington County Civic Federation hosted a forum at 7:30pm on September 2 at Virginia Hospital Center's Hazel Auditorium in Arlington, Virginia. The event was recorded and televised by Arlington Independent Media. More than one hundred people attended the Arlington forum. Sarvis participated in the event; Warner and Gillespie declined.

Northern Virginia Technology Council
The Northern Virginia Technology Council and Microsoft co-hosted a forum, at the Microsoft Offices in Reston, Virginia, from 8 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. on September 8. The forum delved into details about cybersecurity policy, immigration visas for skilled workers and other issues important to the tech community. Warner and Gillespie participated; Sarvis was not invited.

The Battleground
The Battleground Forum with Northern Virginia Chambers of Commerce occurred between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. on September 19 at the Center for Innovative Technology in Herndon, Virginia. The debate-style forum was hosted by chambers of commerce from Loudoun, Prince William, Reston and Fredericksburg. Questions included: the Affordable Care Act, balancing the budget, the Marketplace Fairness Act, Virginia's economy and student loan debt. Warner's and Gillespie's answers centered around two themes: Warner speaking about his bipartisanship record and Gillespie pairing Warner with President Barack Obama. Sarvis was not invited.

Roanoke Chamber of Commerce
The Roanoke Chamber of Commerce joint appearance occurred between 11:30 a.m. and 1:00 p.m., at the City Market Building in Roanoke, Virginia, on October 6. The forum was moderated by Dr. Robert "Bob" Denton, who leads the communication department at Virginia Tech. Warner, Gillespie, and Sarvis were invited. Warner highlighted his record of bipartisanship; Gillespie questioned whether Warner is really the centrist he claims to be; and Sarvis argued the two-party system is broken and neither of his opponents offers any meaningful change. The forum covered a variety of issues, including transportation funding, immigration reform and foreign policy, and a question about the Affordable Care Act highlighted the candidates' differences.

Sorensen Institute
The Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership, Danville Register & Bee, and WSET-TV joint appearance occurred October 14 at 7 p.m. in Danville, Virginia. Warner and Gillespie participated. Sarvis was not invited.

Christopher Newport University
The Christopher Newport University joint appearance took place on October 17 in Gaines Theater in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Warner and Gillespie answered questions from Dr. Quentin Kidd, a government professor and director of Christopher Newport University's Wason Center. The event was free and open to the public. Warner and Gillespie attended. Sarvis was not invited.

Central Business District Association
The Central Business District Association joint appearance was at The Westin Virginia Beach Town Center, from 8:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. on October 23. Warner and Gillespie participated. Sarvis was not invited.

Proposed debates

Proposed debates

James Madison University debate
The proposed debate was sponsored by Virginia21 and the JMU Student Government Association. Gillespie has accepted the debate invitation; Warner declined. Sarvis was not invited to the debate. A representative of the university's student government association wrote: "Both campaigns had stated that if Mr. Sarvis were to be invited to participate in the debate their chances of agreeing to accept the invitation was unlikely and actually committing was even less likely." While the debate was not agreed to, Warner and Sarvis spoke with JMU students on August 31.

University of Mary Washington debate
The proposed debate was sponsored by the UMW Student Government Association, the Fredericksburg Regional Chamber of Commerce, and The Free-Lance Star. Sarvis was invited and has accepted the debate invitation; Warner and Gillespie declined.

University of Virginia debate
The proposed debate was sponsored by the University of Virginia's Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. Gillespie accepted the invitation. Warner declined. Sarvis was not invited.

George Mason University debate
Gillespie accepted an invitation to debate at George Mason University; Warner declined.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Likely D November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely D November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report Likely D November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics Lean D November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Warner (D) 		Ed
Gillespie (R) 		Robert
Sarvis (L) 		Other Undecided
Roanoke College January 13–17, 2014 553 ± 4.2% 50% 21% — 3% 26%
Rasmussen Reports January 20–21, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 51% 37% — 2% 9%
Christopher Newport University January 15–22, 2014 1,023 ± 3.1% 50% 30% — 2% 18%
Harper Polling February 4–5, 2014 936 ± 3.2% 44% 38% — — 18%
Roanoke College February 22–28, 2014 707 ± 3.9% 56% 29% — 1% 13%
Quinnipiac University March 19–24, 2014 1,288 ± 2.7% 46% 31% 6% — 17%
Public Policy Polling April 1–2, 2014 689 ± ? 49% 35% — — 16%
Rasmussen Reports June 11–12, 2014 750 ± 4% 53% 36% — 3% 9%
Roanoke College July 14–19, 2014 556 ± 4.2% 47% 22% 5% 2% 25%
CBS News/New York Times July 5–24, 2014 2,081 ± 3.2% 53% 42% — 2% 3%
Hampton University July 27–30, 2014 804 ± 2.9% 53% 28% 5% — 14%
55% 32% — — 13%
CBS News/New York Times August 18 – September 2, 2014 1,635 ± 3% 51% 39% — 1% 9%
Christopher Newport University September 2–7, 2014 713 ± 3.7% 53% 31% 5% — 11%
Roanoke College September 13–19, 2014 630 ± 3.9% 49% 29% 6% — 16%
Quinnipiac University September 17–22, 2014 1,010 ± 3.1% 48% 39% 6% — 7%
50% 41% — — 9%
Public Policy Polling September 22–23, 2014 625 ± 3.9% 48% 35% 4% — 12%
49% 37% — — 14%
CBS News/New York Times September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,656 ± 3% 51% 39% 1% 0% 9%
Christopher Newport University September 29 – October 5, 2014 690 ± 3.7% 51% 39% 3% — 7%
University of Mary Washington October 1–6, 2014 444 LV ± 5.3% 47% 37% 6% — 10%
819 RV ± 3.9% 50% 30% 6% — 14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,605 ± 4% 49% 39% 1% 0% 11%
Roanoke College October 20–25, 2014 738 ± 3.6% 47% 35% 4% — 15%
Vox Populi Polling October 27–28, 2014 734 ± 3.6% 44% 40% 5% 2% 9%
Christopher Newport University October 23–29, 2014 815 ± 3.4% 51% 44% 2% — 3%
Public Policy Polling October 29–30, 2014 937 ± 3.2% 49% 40% 5% — 6%
Hypothetical polling

With Bolling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Warner (D) 		Bill
Bolling (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 680 ± 3.8% 51% 40% 9%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 602 ± 4% 53% 35% 12%
Public Policy Polling May 24–26, 2013 672 ± 3.8% 54% 33% 13%
Public Policy Polling July 11–14, 2013 601 ± 4% 53% 35% 12%

With Cantor

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Warner (D) 		Eric
Cantor (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 680 ± 3.8% 51% 40% 9%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 602 ± 4% 56% 37% 7%
Public Policy Polling May 24–26, 2013 672 ± 3.8% 53% 34% 13%
Public Policy Polling July 11–14, 2013 601 ± 4% 52% 36% 11%

With Cuccinelli

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Warner (D) 		Ken
Cuccinelli (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 680 ± 3.8% 51% 40% 9%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 602 ± 4% 57% 36% 7%

With Kristol

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Warner (D) 		Bill
Kristol (R) 		Undecided

With Marshall

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Warner (D) 		Bob
Marshall (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 11–14, 2013 601 ± 4% 50% 34% 16%

With McDonnell

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Warner (D) 		Bob
McDonnell (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 680 ± 3.8% 51% 40% 9%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 602 ± 4% 52% 42% 7%
University of Mary Washington March 20–24, 2013 1,004 ± 3.5% 51% 35% 14%
Public Policy Polling May 24–26, 2013 672 ± 3.8% 50% 39% 11%
Public Policy Polling July 11–14, 2013 601 ± 4% 51% 36% 15%

With Obenshain

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Warner (D) 		Mark
Obenshain (R) 		Undecided

Results

2014 United States Senate election in Virginia
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mark Warner (incumbent) 1,073,667 49.15% −15.88%
Republican Ed Gillespie 1,055,940 48.34% +14.62%
Libertarian Robert Sarvis 53,102 2.43% +1.87%
Write-in 1,764 0.08% -0.01%
Total votes 2,184,473 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties and Independent Cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Gillespie won 8 of 11 congressional districts.

District Gillespie Warner Representative
1st 55.77% 42.03% Rob Wittman
2nd 49.47% 47.87% Scott Rigell
3rd 20.74% 77.01% Robert C. Scott
4th 50.79% 46.87% Randy Forbes
5th 53.56% 43.98% Robert Hurt
6th 60.0% 37.29% Bob Goodlatte
7th 56.1% 40.79% Eric Cantor
8th 31.01% 66.81% Jim Moran
9th 59.42% 38.23% Morgan Griffith
10th 51.56% 46.28% Frank Wolf
11th 38.51% 59.28% Gerry Connolly

See also

References

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  2. Kyle Cheney & Darren Samuelsohn (November 7, 2014). "Gillespie concedes Va. Senate race to Warner". Politico. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  3. "Senator Mark Warner says won't run for Virginia governor". Reuters. November 20, 2012. Archived from the original on November 28, 2012. Retrieved December 3, 2012.
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  5. "Election 2014: Virginia Senate". Rasmussen Reports. January 13, 2014. Retrieved January 24, 2014.
  6. "Ex-GOP chairman Ed Gillespie declares Va. Senate bid". USA Today. January 16, 2014. Retrieved January 24, 2014.
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  8. "Sen. Mark Warner passes on 2013 governor bid".
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  10. ^ Schmidt, Markus (June 16, 2014). "16 former GOP elected officials back Warner". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved June 16, 2014.
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  40. Miller, Jackson (February 5, 2014). "Very excited for @EdWGillespie #VASEN race. Sign up to be a delegate and support him in Roanoke with me!". Twitter. Retrieved February 23, 2014.
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  46. Whitbeck, John (January 29, 2014). "Today I join conservative leaders..." Twitter. Retrieved January 30, 2014.
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