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2016 United States presidential election in Texas

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Turnout	59.4% (of registered voters) 46.5% (of voting age population)
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Party Republican Democratic Home state New York New York Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Electoral vote 36 0 Popular vote 4,685,047 3,877,868 Percentage 52.23% 43.24%
County Results Congressional District Results State Senate district results State House district results Precinct Results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Clinton   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100%
President before election Barack Obama Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

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v t e

The 2016 United States presidential election in Texas took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Primary elections were held on March 1, 2016.

Texas was won by Republican Donald Trump and his running mate Mike Pence by a 8.99% margin over Democrats Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine. Texas assigned its 38 Electoral College votes to the state's popular vote winner, but two faithless electors chose other candidates, making Texas the only state in 2016 to give Trump fewer than the assigned electoral votes. Even then, its 36 electoral votes were Trump's largest electoral prize in 2016.

When the Electoral College met on December 19, 2016, only 36 of the 38 electors voted for Trump for president. Two electors defected; one voted for Ohio Governor John Kasich, and the other voted for former Congressman Ron Paul, making the latter, at 81 and despite not running, the oldest person to ever receive an electoral vote. For vice president, 37 electors voted for Pence, while one voted for Carly Fiorina. This was the first time since 1976 where a Republican presidential candidate lost a pledged vote via a faithless elector; that year, Gerald Ford lost a Washington state electoral vote to fellow Republican Ronald Reagan. Additionally, this was the first time since 1972 that the winning presidential candidate lost an electoral vote, when Richard Nixon lost a Virginia electoral vote to Libertarian Party nominee John Hospers.

Texas was one of eleven states (and the District of Columbia) where Clinton improved on Barack Obama's performance in 2012. Clinton lost Texas by a smaller margin than any Democrat since 1996 (though her proportion of the vote was slightly smaller than that received by Barack Obama in 2008), which analysts attributed to Trump losing ground with college-educated white voters. Trump's performance in Texas was the weakest of any victorious Republican nominee since Richard Nixon in 1968 - the last Republican to win the presidency without carrying Texas. Trump in 2016 was the tenth consecutive Republican presidential nominee to win Texas, beginning with Reagan in 1980. Nevertheless, he became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Bexar County since Richard Nixon in 1968, as well as the first to win without carrying Fort Bend County since Herbert Hoover in 1928, and the first to win without carrying Harris or Dallas County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Primaries

Democratic primary

The Texas Democratic Party held their state's primary in concurrence with the other Super Tuesday contests on March 1. Eight candidates appeared on the ballot, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, dropped-out candidate Martin O'Malley and five minor candidates (Rocky De La Fuente, Willie Wilson, Star Locke, Keith Russell Judd and Calvis Hawes.) The Texas Democratic primary had 251 delegates to the Democratic National Convention: 222 pledged delegates and 29 super delegates. 145 delegates were allocated proportionally based on the results in the state's 31 senatorial districts. The other 77 pledged delegates were allocated proportionally based on the statewide popular vote.

Results

2016 Texas Democratic Party presidential primary

Candidate	Popular vote		Delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged delegates	Super delegates	Total delegates
Hillary Clinton	936,004	65.19%	147	21	168
Bernie Sanders	476,547	33.19%	75	0	75
Rocky De Le Fuente	8,429	0.59%	0	0	0
Martin O'Malley	5,364	0.37%	0	0	0
Willie Wilson	3,254	0.23%	0	0	0
Keith Russell Judd	2,569	0.18%	0	0	0
Calvis L. Hawes	2,017	0.14%	0	0	0
Star Locke	1,711	0.12%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	n/a			8	8
Total:	1,435,895	100%	222	29	251

Republican primary

Results

2016 Texas Republican Party presidential primary

Candidate	Popular vote		Delegates
	Count	Percentage
Ted Cruz	1,241,118	43.76%	104
Donald Trump	758,762	26.75%	48
Marco Rubio	503,055	17.74%	3
John Kasich	120,473	4.25%	0
Ben Carson	117,969	4.16%	0
Jeb Bush	35,420	1.25%	0
Uncommitted	29,609	1.04%	0
Rand Paul	8,000	0.28%	0
Mike Huckabee	6,226	0.22%	0
Elizabeth Gray	5,449	0.19%	0
Chris Christie	3,448	0.12%	0
Carly Fiorina	3,247	0.11%	0
Rick Santorum	2,006	0.07%	0
Lindsey Graham	1,706	0.06%	0
Total:	2,836,488	100%	155

Green Party caucus

The Texas Green Party held its party caucuses at conventions at the precinct level on March 8, the county level on March 12, and the district level on March 19, leading up to the state nominating convention in Grey Forest, Texas, on April 9 and 10.

On April 10 it was announced that Jill Stein had won the state convention.

Texas Green Party presidential caucus, Saturday, April 9, 2016

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	National delegates
Jill Stein	-	-	15
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry	-	-	3
Darryl Cherney	-	-	2
Kent Mesplay	-	-	2
William Kreml	-	-	1
Total	-	100.00%	23

Campaign

The Green Party did host their National Convention in Houston from August 4-6 at the University of Houston making it the last physical convention for the Green Party to date for a presidential election as one was held virtually for the 2020 and 2024 elections.

General election

Polling

Trump won every single pre-election poll with margins varying from 2 to 14 points. Trump won the last poll 49% to 35% and the average of the last three polls showed Trump leading 50% to 38%.

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Texas as of Election Day.

Results

The voting age population was 19,307,355, of which 15,101,087 were registered to vote. Turnout was 8,969,226, which is 46.45% of the voting age population and 59.39% of registered voters. The early voting period lasted for two weeks ending November 4, with 43.5% of registered voters casting early or absentee ballots. Out of those who cast votes, 73% cast their ballots early or absentee and 26% voted on Election Day.

Thirteen candidates received write-in votes, of which the large majority (42,366) went to Evan McMullin.

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Jefferson (largest city: Beaumont)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Fort Bend (largest city: Sugar Land)
• Kenedy (largest community: Sarita)

By congressional district

Trump won 22 of 36 congressional districts, while Clinton won 14, including three held by Republicans

Analysis

While he continued the Republican 10-cycle winning streak in Texas, Trump's winning margin was down from Mitt Romney's 15.79% in 2012 to 8.99%, a 6.80% drop, making 2016 the closest Democrats had come to winning Texas since 1996 (though the Democrats also received a smaller percentage of the vote in Texas in this election than in the 2008 presidential election). The surge in Democratic votes can partly be attributed to a growing population of Hispanics/Latinos, Trump's relatively weak performance with college-educated white voters, and the growth of cities and their respective suburbs in the Texas Triangle region, which are heavily populated with both college-educated voters and minorities and thus swung more Democratic compared to 2012. These were Clinton's main sources of votes. She swept the Rio Grande region counties, such as El Paso, Webb, Hidalgo and Cameron as they have sizable Hispanic populations. Clinton scored a 38-point sweep in Travis County, home to the state capital and heavily liberal city of Austin, the best Democratic performance in the county since 1964. She became the first Democrat to break 60% of the vote in Dallas County since 1944. Furthermore, she outperformed Obama in the minority-heavy counties of Bexar (San Antonio) and Harris County (Houston), shifting his slim victories into double-digit leads. In fact, the Presidential vote in Texas' 7th Congressional District, which includes Houston's inner-west suburbs, had the biggest change in margin towards Clinton compared to Obama's 2012 performance outside of Utah, shifting 23 points left. Clinton also won suburban Fort Bend County for the first time since Texas native Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, which was attributed to the county's large immigrant population and negative perception of Trump by female Republican voters. While Clinton didn't win suburban counties such as Denton County, Williamson County, Collin County, or Hays County, her margin of defeat was much narrower than other Democratic presidential nominees. Places that had large numbers of young voters in the state were a stronghold for Clinton as well. Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick suggested that Trump's relatively small margin of victory could have been largely due to many moderate Republican voters who had supported Romney in 2012 staying home. In an interview conducted the morning after the election, Patrick said in reference to these voters, "Had they turned out, he would've been in the low teens".

In total, Clinton beat Trump in 27 counties by a total of 883,819 votes, and had the best percentage performance than any other Democrat running statewide. Conversely, Trump, who won 227 of the state's 254 counties, got the smallest percentage of the vote of all Republicans running in the state.

As of the 2024 election, this is the most recent election where Frio, Jim Wells, Kenedy, Kleberg, La Salle, Reeves, Val Verde, and Zapata counties have voted Democratic, as rural Hispanic-majority South Texas has trended heavily Republican in the two elections since, and the most recent election where Hays County has voted Republican.

See also

• United States presidential elections in Texas
• First presidency of Donald Trump
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential debates
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

Notes

1. ^ Trump and Pence earned 38 pledged electoral votes, but Trump lost two and Pence lost one due to faithless electors. Bill Greene voted for Ron Paul (who was not a candidate) for president and Mike Pence (who was on the Republican ticket) as vice president, while Christopher Suprun voted for John Kasich for president and Carly Fiorina for vice president (both not candidates).

References

1. "Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970-current)".
2. Walsh, Sean Collins (December 19, 2016). "All but 2 Texas members of the Electoral College choose Donald Trump". Statesman. Archived from the original on December 21, 2016.
3. Which candidates did the seven "faithless" electors support? CBS News (December 21, 2016). Retrieved December 9, 2023.
4. "Vote Swing - 2016 Presidential General Election Data - National". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
5. "Texas Democratic Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 23, 2017.
6. "Race Summary Report: 2016 Democratic Party Primary Election". Texas Secretary of State. March 1, 2016. Retrieved July 14, 2016.
7. "Race Summary Report: 2016 Republican Party Primary Election". Texas Secretary of State. March 1, 2016. Retrieved July 14, 2016.
8. "Time to Vote Green- March 8". Green Party of Texas. August 21, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2016.
9. "2016 County Nominating Conventions". Green Party of Texas. December 4, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2016.
10. "2016 District Nominating Conventions". Green Party of Texas. December 4, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2016.
11. "2016 State Nominating Convention". Green Party of Texas. August 21, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
12. "Stein wins majority of Texas convention delegates". Retrieved April 11, 2016.
13. "Green Party National Convention, 2016". Ballotpedia. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
14. Hooks, Christopher (August 9, 2016). "The Texas Green Party Isn't Making It Any Easier to be Green". Texas Observer. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
15. "Green Party presidential nomination, 2020". Ballotpedia. Retrieved August 2, 2024.
16. "Green Party presidential nomination, 2024". Ballotpedia. Retrieved August 2, 2024.
17. "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Texas: Trump vs. Clinton".
18. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
19. "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
20. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
21. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
22. Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
23. "ElectoralVote". ElectoralVote. December 31, 2000. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
24. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
25. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
26. "Electoral Map 2016: Forecast Who Will Win-Clinton or Trump". Abcnews.go.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
27. "Texas hits record high for early voting turnout". October 27, 2020.
28. "Race Summary Report, 2016 General Election". Texas Secretary of State. Retrieved December 1, 2016.
29. Lau, Ryan (February 3, 2018). "Ron Paul Attacks Libertarian Leadership in Response to Controversy". 71Republic. Archived from the original on February 4, 2018. Retrieved February 3, 2018. I paid my lifetime membership, in 1987, with a gold coin, to make a point.
30. "Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970-current)". www.sos.state.tx.us. Retrieved January 3, 2017.
31. "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
32. "Texas - 270toWin".
33. Rogers, Mary Beth (January 31, 2016). "Turning Texas blue?: 3 trends could undo the 20 years of Republican rule Texas has endured since the days of Ann Richards". Salon. Retrieved March 10, 2017.
34. Tribune, The Texas (November 11, 2016). "There's no shading it, Harris County went undeniably blue". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved March 9, 2017.
35. "Daily Kos Elections 2012, 2016 & 2020 presidential election results for congressional districts used in 2020 elections". Google Docs. Retrieved January 27, 2023.
36. Quinn, Kevin (November 9, 2016). "Political shift in Ft. Bend leans toward Clinton". KTRK-TV.
37. "Texas County Elects Black Woman Sheriff and Votes for Trump".
38. "Trump across Texas, visualized". Houston Chronicle. Retrieved March 9, 2017.
39. Svitek, Patrick (November 9, 2016). "Donald Trump wins Texas, leads Hillary Clinton by 9 points". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved December 25, 2018.
40. Tribune, The Texas (November 11, 2016). "Analysis: The blue dots in Texas' red political sea". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved March 9, 2017.

Further reading

• David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (October 4, 2020), "The seven political states of Texas", Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on October 5, 2020.

External links

• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived November 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
• Decision Desk Headquarter Results for Texas

v t e State and district results of the 2016 United States presidential election
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• 2016 United States presidential election by state
• United States presidential elections in Texas
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