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2006 United States Senate election in Virginia

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2006 United States Senate election in Virginia
← 2000 November 7, 2006 2012 →
Turnout44.0% (voting eligible)
 
Nominee Jim Webb George Allen
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,175,606 1,166,277
Percentage 49.59% 49.20%
County and independent city results Congressional district results Precinct resultsWebb:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Allen:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

George Allen
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jim Webb
Democratic

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The 2006 United States Senate election in Virginia was held November 7, 2006. Incumbent Republican Senator George Allen ran for reelection to a second term but was narrowly defeated by former Secretary of the Navy Jim Webb, who earned 49.6% of the vote to Allen's 49.2%. With a margin of just 0.4%, this election was the closest race of the 2006 Senate election cycle. This was the second consecutive election for this seat where the incumbent lost re-election. Webb did not seek reelection in 2012, and was succeeded by fellow Democrat Tim Kaine, who defeated Allen by 5.9 percentage points to win the open seat.

Background

Allen, who previously served as Governor of Virginia and was considered a possible candidate for president in 2008, was running for his second term. Webb, a decorated Vietnam War veteran, writer and former Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan won the Democratic nomination after being drafted by netroots activists, such as those at the blog Raising Kaine. Polls clearly favored Allen through mid-August, but on August 11, he was filmed using the ethnic slur Macaca in reference to a Webb campaign volunteer, S.R. Sidarth, who is of Indian ancestry. He also told Sidarth, "Welcome to America and the real world of Virginia," despite the fact that Sidar was born and raised in Fairfax County, and was a University of Virginia student at the time. Allen denied any prejudice in the comment, but the video was quickly spread online, and the gaffe caused his lead to shrink considerably. Still, he led in most polls until late October, when several surveys showed Webb with a lead—mostly within the margin of error. The election was not decided until nearly 48 hours after the polls closed, when Allen, behind by a margin of about 0.3%, conceded on November 9, 2006. With all of the other Senate races decided, the outcome swung control of the Senate to the Democrats.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Endorsements

Miller

  • Kate Michelman, pro-choice activist
  • Several Virginia State Senators
  • Alexandria city councilmembers

Webb

Finances

Federal Election Commission reports show that in the first part of 2006, Miller raised more than twice as much money as Webb, who entered the race in February. (Miller contributed over $1 million to his own campaign, 60% of what he raised.)

Campaign

The week before the primary, Miller said a Webb campaign flier characterized him in an anti-Semitic way; Webb denied that it did.

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jim Webb 83,298 53.47
Democratic Harris Miller 72,486 46.53
Total votes 155,784 100.00

General election

Candidates

Controversies

Main article: Controversies of the 2006 United States Senate election in Virginia

This election involved several controversies involving both Webb and Allen, most notably the "macaca incident," which began Allen's decline in the polls and eventual loss.

Platform

Webb focused on his early and outspoken opposition to the war in Iraq, which Allen supported. In a September 4, 2002, opinion piece in The Washington Post, Webb wrote: "A long-term occupation of Iraq would beyond doubt require an adjustment of force levels elsewhere, and could eventually diminish American influence in other parts of the world." Webb's son, a U.S. Marine, served in Iraq.

Allen and Webb differed on other issues. Allen was opposed to abortion rights; Webb supported them. Allen supported George W. Bush's tax cuts while Webb said more of the benefits should have gone to middle-class Americans. Both candidates supported the death penalty, right-to-work laws, and Second Amendment rights.

Fundraising

Allen retained a substantial lead in fundraising: $6.6 million on hand to Webb's $1.1 million through September 15, 2006.

Debates

Meet the Press debate
On September 17, 2006, Allen and Webb appeared on NBC's Meet the Press for a debate. Part of the program's debate series on the midterm elections, the debate heavily discussed both the original Gulf War and the present war in Iraq. Host Tim Russert questioned Webb about his initial support for Allen's 2000 U.S. Senate run, as well as what led him to later oppose Allen. Russert also questioned Allen about a remark Webb made concerning his interactions with Allen at the start of the Iraq conflict. Webb asserted that he approached Allen regarding U.S. involvement in the region and cautioned against military action. Webb also claimed that Allen responded to this by saying "You're asking me to be disloyal to the president." After being questioned on this by Russert, Allen clarified by saying "No, it's loyalty to this country, and making sure that our country is unified in, in this, in this effort to disarm Saddam Hussein. That was the point." Allen also addressed what he saw as a weakness in Webb, claiming his opponent wanted to withdraw from Iraq. Webb clarified his belief that the U.S. has a commitment to ensure Iraq is stable before withdrawing, but also reasserted that a permanent U.S. presence in Iraq is not an option.

The debate likewise covered an upcoming vote on the use of coercive interrogation methods on enemy combatants. Allen stated that he had not yet made a decision on how to vote, but stated "Now, the key in all of this is I don't want to stop these interrogations. I'm not for torture, I'm not for waterboarding, but some of these techniques have been very helpful to us, whether they are sleep deprivation, or whether there's loud music. And I need to be absolutely certain that what the interrogations—interrogators are doing now—which is completely fine as far as I'm concerned, protecting Americans—will not be harmed by the proposal." Webb expressed that this was an issue close to him as a former soldier, but also stated that he did not believe interrogations should be ended completely. Webb however reaffirmed his concerns that if the U.S. abandons the Geneva Convention its soldiers will suffer abroad.

Russert questioned Webb on the recent allegations that his 1979 Washingtonian article fostered hostility towards female students at the Naval Academy. Webb responded as he had in prior press releases, expressing his regret for the repercussions of the article. Russert similarly asked Allen about a statement he made in 2000 in the pages of American Enterprise magazine: "If admitted women, it wouldn't be the VMI that we've known for 154 years. You just don't treat women the way you treat fellow cadets. If you did, it would be ungentlemanly, it would be improper." Allen responded that VMI has made great progress in a co-ed curriculum, making women cadets more of a possibility than at the time he made the statement.

This Week debate
On September 18, 2006, George Stephanopoulos moderated a debate between Allen and Webb, as part of his program This Week on ABC. Topics included national security, Iraq, the economy, the conduct of the campaign, and other issues.

League of Women Voters debate
On October 9, 2006, the League of Women Voters sponsored a debate between Allen and Webb. The format consisted of the candidates answering series of questions from the moderator, from the LWV panel, and finally from each other. Largely, the responses from the candidates did not expand on the body of knowledge already present in their television and radio commercials. The overall feel of the debate was somewhat combative, with Allen frequently going overtime on responses and a round of uncontrolled verbal jousting after Allen cited Webb's prior statements on raising taxes.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Tossup November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball Tilt D (flip) November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report Lean D (flip) November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics Tossup November 6, 2006

Endorsement

Jim Webb (D)
Individuals
  • Wesley Clark, General, 2004 democratic presidential candidate

Polling

Source Date Jim
Webb (D) 		George
Allen (R) 		Gail
Parker (IG)
Rasmussen December 9, 2005 26% 57%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 37% 49%
Rasmussen March 28, 2006 30% 54%
Zogby/WSJ March 31, 2006 42% 49%
Rasmussen April 19, 2006 30% 50%
Rasmussen June 20, 2006 41% 51%
Zogby/WSJ June 21, 2006 44% 49%
Associated Press/Ipsos June 27, 2006 39% 46%
Survey USA June 28, 2006 37% 56% 2%
Zogby July 15, 2006 37% 47%
Zogby/WSJ July 24, 2006 41% 52%
Rasmussen July 27, 2006 39% 50%
Mason-Dixon July 30, 2006 32% 48%
Rasmussen August 17, 2006 42% 47%
SurveyUSA August 21, 2006 45% 48% 2%
Zogby/WSJ August 27, 2006 48% 47%
Mason-Dixon September 10, 2006 42% 46%
Zogby/WSJ September 10, 2006 50% 43%
SurveyUSA September 13, 2006 45% 48% 3%
Rasmussen September 15, 2006 43% 50%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC September 23–27, 2006 43% 43% 2%
SurveyUSA September 27, 2006 44% 49% 2%
Zogby/WSJ September 28, 2006 44% 49%
SurveyUSA September 29, 2006 44% 50% 2%
Rasmussen October 2, 2006 43% 49%
Reuters/Zogby October 5, 2006 37% 48%
USA Today/Gallup October 6, 2006 45% 48%
Rasmussen October 12, 2006 46% 49%
Washington Post October 15, 2006 47% 49% 2%
Zogby/WSJ October 19, 2006 47% 50%
Mason-Dixon October 23, 2006 43% 47% 2%
Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg October 24, 2006 47% 44%
SurveyUSA October 25, 2006 46% 49% 2%
Rasmussen October 27, 2006 48% 49%
GHY (D) October 26–29, 2006 47% 43%
Zogby/WSJ October 28, 2006 51% 47%
Rasmussen October 29, 2006 51% 46%
CNN October 31, 2006 50% 46%
Rasmussen November 2, 2006 49% 49%
Reuters/Zogby November 2, 2006 45% 44%
Gallup November 1–3, 2006 46% 49%
Mason-Dixon November 4, 2006 46% 45% 2%
SurveyUSA November 6, 2006 52% 44% 2%

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2006
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jim Webb 1,175,606 49.59% +1.91%
Republican George Allen (incumbent) 1,166,277 49.20% −3.05%
Independent Greens Gail Parker 26,102 1.10% +1.10%
Write-in 2,460 0.10% +0.04%
Total votes 2,370,445 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Despite losing, Allen won 7 of 11 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat. Webb won 4, including two that elected Republicans.

District Allen* Webb Representative
1st 54.4% 44.2% Jo Ann Davis
2nd 51.0% 47.7% Thelma Drake
3rd 30.7% 67.9% Robert C. Scott
4th 54.1% 44.6% Randy Forbes
5th 53.8% 45.1% Virgil Goode
6th 58.3% 40.4% Bob Goodlatte
7th 56.7% 42.1% Eric Cantor
8th 29.9% 68.9% Jim Moran
9th 54.8% 44.0% Rick Boucher
10th 48.8% 50.0% Frank Wolf
11th 44.2% 54.7% Thomas M. Davis

Analysis

Virginia had historically been one of the more Republican Southern states. For instance, it was the only Southern state not to vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976. Prior to the 2006 election, its congressional delegation was mostly conservative, with eight of eleven Representatives and both Senators belonging to the Republican Party, making its Congressional delegation the most Republican of any Southern state. Despite this, Democrats had won the gubernatorial races in 2001 and 2005. The state's political majority has been changing from conservative white to a mixture of races, especially Hispanic. The state is increasingly diverse; it has the highest percentage of Asians (4.7%, according to the 2005 American Community Survey of the U.S. Census) of any Southern state. 9.9% of Virginians are foreign-born. Webb, like Governor Tim Kaine in 2005, won the four major fast-growing counties in Northern Virginia outside Washington, D.C.; Fairfax County, Loudoun, Prince William and Arlington. In 2008, President Barack Obama carried Virginia by a 6.3% margin over Republican Senator John McCain, while the Democratic nominee for Senate, Mark Warner, won the open seat, defeating Republican candidate Jim Gilmore by over 30 points.

When results began coming in, Allen quickly built a sizeable lead, which began to narrow as the night went on. With 90% of precincts reporting, Allen held a lead of about 30,000 votes, or about 1.5%. However, as votes began to come in from population-heavy Richmond, Webb narrowed the gap, and pulled ahead within the last 1 or 2% of precincts to report. Preliminary results showed Webb holding a lead of 8,942 votes, and many news organizations hesitated to call the election for either candidate until the next day. At 8:41 PM EST on November 8, AP declared Webb the winner. Webb was the sixth Democrat to defeat an incumbent Republican Senator in 2006, and his victory gave Democrats control of the Senate. In all Virginia elections, if the margin of defeat is less than half of a percentage point, the Commonwealth of Virginia allows the apparent losing candidate to request a recount, paid for by the local jurisdictions. If the margin of defeat is between one and one-half of a percentage point, the losing candidate is still entitled to request a recount, but must cover its expense. Because the difference was less than 0.5%, George Allen could have requested a recount paid for by the government, but declined to make such a request. That was likely because:

  • Even in large jurisdictions, recounts—such as those in Florida in 2000 and Washington's 2004 gubernatorial election—rarely result in a swing of more than 1,000 votes, and Allen was trailing by almost 10,000 in the initial count. In particular, almost all votes in this Virginia election were cast using electronic voting machines, whose results are unlikely to change in a recount.
  • There was wide speculation that calling for a recount (and still losing) would give Allen a "sore loser" label, which would hurt his future election campaigns, including what some speculated might still involve a 2008 presidential run. However, after losing the senatorial election, on December 10, 2006, Allen announced that he would not be running for president in 2008.

See also

References

  1. Dr. Michael McDonald (December 28, 2011). "2006 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on January 25, 2013. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
  2. "Allen concedes, giving Senate control to Dems". CNN. November 9, 2006. Archived from the original on November 10, 2006. Retrieved November 9, 2006.
  3. "Endorsing Harris Miller..." Harris Miller for US Senate. Archived from the original (Website) on September 6, 2006. Retrieved October 1, 2006.
  4. Wilmore, J.C. (May 24, 2006). "U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow endorses Jim Webb". The Richmond Democrat Blog. J.C. Wilmore. Archived from the original (Blog) on November 2, 2006.
  5. "Harris N. Miller: 2006 Politician Profile". OpenSecrets. September 15, 2006. Archived from the original on September 30, 2007.
  6. Lewis, Bob (June 9, 2006). "Flier Blasted on Drawing of Jewish Opponent". ABC News, the Associated Press. Retrieved October 1, 2006.
  7. "Primary Election- June 13, 2006". Archived from the original on September 26, 2011. Retrieved May 21, 2011.
  8. Webb, James (September 4, 2002). "Heading for Trouble: Do we really want to occupy Iraq for the next 30 years?". The Washington Post. p. A21. Retrieved October 28, 2006.
  9. "James Webb on the Issues". OnTheIssues.
  10. "Total Raised and Spent, 2006 RACE: VIRGINIA SENATE". OpenSecrets. Archived from the original on September 18, 2006. Retrieved September 20, 2006.
  11. "Meet the Press Transcript for Sept. 17". NBC News. September 17, 2006. Retrieved October 28, 2006.
  12. "2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
  13. "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  14. "Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. November 6, 2006. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  15. "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  16. Jim Webb
  17. Rasmussen
  18. Rasmussen
  19. Rasmussen
  20. Zogby/WSJ
  21. Rasmussen
  22. Rasmussen
  23. Zogby/WSJ
  24. Associated Press/Ipsos
  25. Survey USA
  26. Zogby
  27. Zogby/WSJ
  28. Rasmussen
  29. Mason-Dixon
  30. Rasmussen
  31. SurveyUSA
  32. Zogby/WSJ
  33. Mason-Dixon
  34. Zogby/WSJ
  35. SurveyUSA
  36. Rasmussen
  37. Mason-Dixon/MSNBC
  38. SurveyUSA
  39. Zogby/WSJ
  40. SurveyUSA
  41. Rasmussen
  42. Reuters/Zogby
  43. USA Today/Gallup
  44. Rasmussen
  45. Washington Post
  46. Zogby/WSJ
  47. Mason-Dixon
  48. Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg
  49. SurveyUSA
  50. Rasmussen
  51. GHY (D)
  52. Zogby/WSJ
  53. Rasmussen
  54. CNN
  55. Rasmussen
  56. Reuters/Zogby
  57. Gallup
  58. Mason-Dixon
  59. SurveyUSA
  60. "2006 Election Statistics". clerk.house.gov.
  61. Official Results Archived August 13, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
  62. "Virginia - Fact Sheet - American FactFinder". United States Census Bureau. Archived from the original on February 11, 2020.
  63. JIM WEBB WINS - chaos of the moment Webb overtook Allen, November 8, 2006, retrieved February 17, 2023
  64. Shear, Michael D.; MacGillis, Alec (November 10, 2006). "Democrats Take Control of Senate As Allen Concedes to Webb in Va". The Washington Post. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  65. Sidoti, Liz, and Bob Lewis (November 8, 2006). "Democrats Take Control of the Senate". Associated Press (via Yahoo! News). Retrieved November 9, 2006.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  66. Lowy, Joan (November 8, 2006). "Recount likely in Virginia Senate race". Associated Press (via Yahoo! News). Retrieved November 9, 2006.
  67. "Virginia Recounts -- The Basics". Election Laws. Virginia State Board of Elections. November 2006. Archived from the original (DOC) on November 8, 2006. Retrieved November 8, 2006.

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