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Incumbent senator ], first elected in a ] in what was widely labeled a major upset, ran for a full term, facing ] in the general election. This race was one of two Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state President Trump won in 2016.<ref>The other was in Michigan, where Senator Gary Peters was re-elected over Republican John James</ref> Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2020 due to Alabama's heavy Republican lean, with analysts predicting a Republican pickup; Jones's 2017 win was in part due to sexual misconduct allegations against his Republican opponent ].<ref name="Alabama competitive">{{Cite news |last=Arkin |first=James |title=Democrats leave Doug Jones hanging as Senate map takes shape |publisher=Politico |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/03/senate-democrats-alabama-doug-jones-229073 |access-date=May 22, 2020}}</ref> Incumbent senator ], first elected in a ] in what was widely labeled a major upset, ran for a full term, facing ] in the general election. This race was one of two Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state President Trump won in 2016.<ref>The other was in Michigan, where Senator Gary Peters was re-elected over Republican John James</ref> Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2020 due to Alabama's heavy Republican lean, with analysts predicting a Republican pickup; Jones's 2017 win was in part due to sexual misconduct allegations against his Republican opponent ].<ref name="Alabama competitive">{{Cite news |last=Arkin |first=James |title=Democrats leave Doug Jones hanging as Senate map takes shape |publisher=Politico |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/03/senate-democrats-alabama-doug-jones-229073 |access-date=May 22, 2020}}</ref>


As was predicted, Tuberville easily defeated Jones,<ref>{{cite news |author=David Wright |title=Vulnerable Democratic senator gets first outside spending support in Alabama |url=https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/politics/doug-jones-senate-race-alabama-outside-spending/index.html |access-date=September 19, 2020 |work=CNN |date=August 20, 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Democrats leave Doug Jones hanging as Senate map takes shape |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/03/senate-democrats-alabama-doug-jones-229073 |access-date=September 19, 2020|last1=Everett|first1=Burgess|last2=Arkin|first2=James|work=Politico|date=May 3, 2020 |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Panetta |first1=Grace |title=Democratic Sen. Doug Jones faces a tough reelection fight against Tommy Tuberville in Alabama |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/alabama-senate-race-doug-jones-vs-tommy-tuberville-polls-fundraising-2020-8 |access-date=September 19, 2020 |work=Business Insider |date=September 18, 2020}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Egan |first=Lauren |date=2020-11-04 |title=Alabama Sen. Doug Jones loses to Tommy Tuberville, NBC News projects |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/alabama-sen-doug-jones-loses-tommy-tuberville-nbc-news-projects-n1246014 |access-date=2023-08-11 |website=www.nbcnews.com |language=en}}</ref> whose 20.36% margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent U.S. Senator since Arkansas' ] in ]. Tuberville received the highest percentage of the vote for any challenger since ] in ]. Jones became the first Democratic senator to lose reelection in Alabama, and the only Democratic senator to be defeated in 2020. He outperformed Biden in the state by about 5 points. This was the only Republican flip of the 2020 U.S. Senate elections, and as of {{CURRENTYEAR}} is the last time Republicans flipped a Senate seat. As was predicted, Tuberville easily defeated Jones,<ref>{{cite news |author=David Wright |title=Vulnerable Democratic senator gets first outside spending support in Alabama |url=https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/politics/doug-jones-senate-race-alabama-outside-spending/index.html |access-date=September 19, 2020 |work=CNN |date=August 20, 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Democrats leave Doug Jones hanging as Senate map takes shape |url=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/03/senate-democrats-alabama-doug-jones-229073 |access-date=September 19, 2020|last1=Everett|first1=Burgess|last2=Arkin|first2=James|work=Politico|date=May 3, 2020 |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Panetta |first1=Grace |title=Democratic Sen. Doug Jones faces a tough reelection fight against Tommy Tuberville in Alabama |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/alabama-senate-race-doug-jones-vs-tommy-tuberville-polls-fundraising-2020-8 |access-date=September 19, 2020 |work=Business Insider |date=September 18, 2020}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Egan |first=Lauren |date=2020-11-04 |title=Alabama Sen. Doug Jones loses to Tommy Tuberville, NBC News projects |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/alabama-sen-doug-jones-loses-tommy-tuberville-nbc-news-projects-n1246014 |access-date=2023-08-11 |website=www.nbcnews.com |language=en}}</ref> whose 20.36% margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent U.S. Senator since Arkansas' ] in ]. Tuberville received the highest percentage of the vote for any challenger since ] in ]. Jones became the first Democratic senator to lose reelection in Alabama, and the only Democratic senator to be defeated in 2020. He outperformed Biden in the state by about 5 points. This was the only Republican flip of the 2020 U.S. Senate elections.


==Democratic primary== ==Democratic primary==
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|} |}


;Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican '''Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican'''
* ] (largest city: ]) * ] (largest city: ])
* ] (largest city: ]) * ] (largest city: ])
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] ]
] ]
]

Latest revision as of 16:22, 21 November 2024

For related races, see 2020 United States Senate elections.

2020 United States Senate election in Alabama
← 2017 (special) November 3, 2020 2026 →
Turnout63.1% Increase
 
Nominee Tommy Tuberville Doug Jones
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,392,076 920,478
Percentage 60.10% 39.74%
County results Congressional district results State Senate district results Precinct ResultsTuberville:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80-90%      >90%
Jones:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Doug Jones
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Tommy Tuberville
Republican

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The 2020 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Incumbent senator Doug Jones, first elected in a 2017 special election in what was widely labeled a major upset, ran for a full term, facing Tommy Tuberville in the general election. This race was one of two Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state President Trump won in 2016. Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2020 due to Alabama's heavy Republican lean, with analysts predicting a Republican pickup; Jones's 2017 win was in part due to sexual misconduct allegations against his Republican opponent Roy Moore.

As was predicted, Tuberville easily defeated Jones, whose 20.36% margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent U.S. Senator since Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln in 2010. Tuberville received the highest percentage of the vote for any challenger since Joseph D. Tydings in 1964. Jones became the first Democratic senator to lose reelection in Alabama, and the only Democratic senator to be defeated in 2020. He outperformed Biden in the state by about 5 points. This was the only Republican flip of the 2020 U.S. Senate elections.

Democratic primary

The candidate filing deadline was November 8, 2019. Jones ran unopposed.

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Endorsements

Doug Jones

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Bradley Byrne (eliminated)

Federal officials

State officials

Arnold Mooney (eliminated)

Federal officials

Organizations

Individuals

Jeff Sessions (eliminated)

Federal officials

  • John Ashcroft, former U.S. Attorney General (2001-2005)
  • John Barrasso, U.S. senator (WY)
  • Roy Blunt, U.S. senator (MO) and former U.S. representative (MO-07) (1997–2011)
  • John Boozman, U.S. senator (AR) and former U.S. Representative (AR-03) (2001–2011)
  • Mike Crapo, U.S. senator (ID) and former U.S. representative (ID-02) (1993–1999)
  • Mike Enzi, U.S. senator (WY)
  • Deb Fischer, U.S. senator (NE)
  • Jim Inhofe, U.S. senator (OK) and former U.S. representative (R-OK-01) (1987–1994)
  • Johnny Isakson, former U.S. senator (GA) (2005–2019) and U.S. Representative (R-GA-06) (1999–2005)
  • Ron Johnson, U.S. senator (WI)
  • Pat Roberts, U.S. senator (KS) and former U.S. Representative (KS-01) (1981–1997)
  • Richard Shelby, U.S. senator (AL) and former U.S. Representative (AL-07) (1979–1987)

Organizations

Individuals

Tommy Tuberville

Federal officials

State officials

Organizations

Individuals

First round

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Stanley
Adair 		Mo
Brooks 		Bradley
Byrne 		Del
Marsh 		John
Merrill 		Arnold
Mooney 		Roy
Moore 		Ruth
Page
Nelson 		Gary
Palmer 		Jeff
Sessions 		Tommy
Tuberville 		Other Undecided
WPA Intelligence February 18–19, 2020 607 (LV) ± 4% <1% – 17% – – <1% 5% – – 29% 32% <1% 15%
WPA Intelligence February 10–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% <1% – 17% – – 1% 6% <1% – 34% 29% – 15%
Harper Polling February 8–9, 2020 609 (LV) ± 3.97% – – 26% – – – 5% – – 31% 24% – 14%
Mason-Dixon February 4–6, 2020 400 (LV) ± 5.0% – – 17% – – – 5% – – 31% 29% 2% 16%
OnMessage January 13–15, 2020 700 (LV) ± 2.5% – – 22% – – – – – – 43% 21% – –
OnMessage December 3–5, 2019 700 (LV) ± 3.7% – – 14% – – 1% 7% 1% – 44% 21% – 12%
Cherry Communications December 1–3, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 1% – 12% – – 1% 8% – – 35% 31% – –
December 1, 2019 Merrill withdraws from the race
November 8, 2019 Filing deadline, by which Palmer had not declared his candidacy
November 7, 2019 Nelson and Sessions announce their candidacies
WPA Intelligence October 29–31, 2019 511 (V) ± 4.4% – – 11% – 6% 2% 11% – – 36% 23% – –
Cygnal October 10–12, 2019 536 (LV) – 1% – 18% – 9% 2% 11% – – – 32% – 28%
Tommy for Senate Released on
October 5, 2019 		– (LV) – 1% – 13% – 9% 1% 15% – – – 36% – 26%
Moore Information August 11–13, 2019 400 (LV) ± 5.0% – – 17% – 13% 1% 15% – – – 33% 3% 17%
June 25, 2019 Merrill announces his candidacy
Cygnal June 22–23, 2019 612 (LV)  4.0% – – 21% – 12% 2% 13% – – – 29% – 22%
– – 13% – 8% – 9% – – 29% 21% – –
June 20, 2019 Moore announces his candidacy
Moore Information June 10–11, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.0% – – 16% – 7% 2% 18% – – – 23% 6% 28%
May 3, 2019 Brooks announces he will not run
April 22, 2019 Marsh announces he will not run
Mason-Dixon April 9–11, 2019 400 (RV) ± 5.0% – 18% 13% 4% – – 27% – 11% – – 2% 25%
Victory Phones Released in
February 2019 		400 (LV) ± 5.0% – 30% 17% 7% – – – – 12% – – 6% 27%

Primary results

Initial primary round results by county   Tuberville
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Sessions
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Byrne
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tommy Tuberville 239,616 33.39%
Republican Jeff Sessions 227,088 31.64%
Republican Bradley Byrne 178,627 24.89%
Republican Roy Moore 51,377 7.16%
Republican Ruth Page Nelson 7,200 1.00%
Republican Arnold Mooney 7,149 1.00%
Republican Stanley Adair 6,608 0.92%
Total votes 717,665 100.00%

Runoff

The runoff for the Republican Senate nomination was planned for March 31, 2020, but it was delayed until July 14 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Sessions 		Tommy
Tuberville 		Other /
Undecided
Auburn University at Montgomery July 2–9, 2020 558 (RV) ± 6% 31% 47% 22%
OnMessage (R) May 26–27, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.46% 43% 49% 8%
FM3 Research (D) May 14–18, 2020 – (LV) – 32% 54% 14%
Cygnal May 7–10, 2020 607 (LV) ± 3.98% 32% 55% 13%
FM3 Research (D) March, 2020 – (LV) – 36% 54% 10%
OnMessage (R) March 8–9, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 45% 45% 10%
Cygnal March 6–8, 2020 645 (LV) + 3.86% 40% 52% 8%
Moore Information Group March 5–7, 2020 400 (LV) ± 5% 38% 49% 13%
WT&S Consulting March 5, 2020 1,234 (LV) + 3.29% 42% 49% 8%
Mason-Dixon February 4–6, 2020 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 42% 9%
Hypothetical polling

with Bradley Byrne and Gary Palmer

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bradley
Byrne 		Gary
Palmer 		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R) February 10–12, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 27% 27% 46%

with Bradley Byrne and Jeff Sessions

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bradley
Byrne 		Jeff
Sessions 		Undecided
AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon February 4–6, 2020 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 35% 48% 17%

with Mo Brooks and Bradley Byrne

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mo
Brooks 		Bradley
Byrne 		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R) March 10–12, 2019 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 32% 25%

with Mo Brooks and Roy Moore

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mo
Brooks 		Roy
Moore 		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R) March 10–12, 2019 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 32% 16%

Results

Runoff results by county   Tuberville
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Sessions
  •   50–60%
Republican primary runoff results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tommy Tuberville 334,675 60.73%
Republican Jeff Sessions 216,452 39.27%
Total votes 551,127 100.00%

Independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

  • Mike Parrish
  • Jarmal Sanders, reverend
  • Marcus Jejaun Williams

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Lean R (flip) October 29, 2020
Inside Elections Lean R (flip) October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R (flip) November 2, 2020
Daily Kos Likely R (flip) October 30, 2020
Politico Lean R (flip) November 2, 2020
RCP Likely R (flip) October 23, 2020
DDHQ Safe R (flip) November 3, 2020
538 Likely R (flip) November 2, 2020
Economist Safe R (flip) November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Doug Jones (D)

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Unions

Tommy Tuberville (R)

Federal officials

  • Donald Trump, 45th and incumbent president of the United States

Senators

State officials

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Jones (D) 		Tommy
Tuberville (R) 		Other Undecided
Swayable October 27 – November 1, 2020 294 (LV) ± 8.5% 42% 58% – –
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,045 (LV) ± 3% 44% 56% 0% –
Morning Consult October 22–31, 2020 850 (LV) ± 3% 39% 51% – –
Auburn University At Montgomery October 23–28, 2020 853 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 54% 3% –
Swayable October 23–26, 2020 232 (LV) ± 8.7% 46% 54% – –
Cygnal October 21–23, 2020 645 (LV) ± 3.9% 41% 55% – 4%
Moore Information (R) October 11–14, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.5% 40% 55% – –
FM3 Research (D) October 11–14, 2020 801 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 47% – 5%
Auburn University at Montgomery September 30 – October 3, 2020 1,072 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 54% 4% –
Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 658 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 34% 52% – –
Morning Consult July 24 – August 2, 2020 609 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 52% 4% 9%
Auburn University at Montgomery July 2–9, 2020 567 (RV) ± 5.1% 36% 44% 7% 14%
WPA Intelligence (R) June 29 – July 2, 2020 509 (LV) ± 3.8% 40% 50% – –
ALG Research (D) June 18–22, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 47% 1% 8%
Cygnal (R) June 13–16, 2020 530 (LV) ± 4.3% 36% 50% 2% 13%
FM3 Research (D) May 14–18, 2020 601 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 47% – 9%
Mason-Dixon February 4–6, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 50% – 8%
JMC Analytics December 16–18, 2019 525 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 47% – 13%
Hypothetical polling

With Jeff Sessions

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Jones (D) 		Jeff
Sessions (R) 		Other Undecided
Auburn University at Montgomery July 2–9, 2020 567 (RV) ± 5.1% 43% 49% 7% 1%
ALG Research (D) June 18–22, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 45% 3% 9%
Cygnal (R) June 13–16, 2020 530 (LV) ± 4.3% 35% 45% 3% 18%
Mason-Dixon February 4–6, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 54% – 5%
JMC Analytics December 16–18, 2019 525 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 46% – 13%

With Bradley Byrne

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Jones (D) 		Bradley
Byrne (R) 		Undecided
AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon February 4–6, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 51% 7%
JMC Analytics December 16–18, 2019 525 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 44% 16%

With Arnold Mooney

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Jones (D) 		Arnold
Mooney (R) 		Undecided
JMC Analytics December 16–18, 2019 525 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 34% 25%

With Roy Moore

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Jones (D) 		Roy
Moore (R) 		Undecided
JMC Analytics December 16–18, 2019 525 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 33% 20%

With Generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Jones (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon Apr 9–11, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 50% 10%

With Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Jones (D) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
JMC Analytics December 16–18, 2019 525 (LV) ± 4.3% 34% 48% 18%

with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
Cygnal October 21–23, 2020 645 (LV) ± 3.9% 38% 55% 6%

Results

By county

United States Senate election in Alabama, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Tommy Tuberville 1,392,076 60.10% +11.76%
Democratic Doug Jones (incumbent) 920,478 39.74% −10.23%
Write-in 3,891 0.17% −1.06%
Total votes 2,316,445 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic
By county
County Tommy Tuberville
Republican 		Doug Jones
Democratic 		Write-ins
Various parties 		Margin Total votes
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Autauga 19,387 69.97% 8,277 29.87% 43 0.16% 11,110 40.10% 27,707
Baldwin 80,200 73.34% 28,925 26.45% 225 0.21% 51,275 46.89% 109,350
Barbour 5,449 52.00% 5,021 47.91% 9 0.09% 428 4.09% 10,479
Bibb 7,320 76.40% 2,244 23.42% 17 0.18% 5,076 52.98% 9,581
Blount 24,163 87.85% 3,290 11.96% 53 0.19% 20,873 75.89% 27,506
Bullock 1,108 24.09% 3,490 75.87% 2 0.04% -2,382 -51.78% 4,600
Butler 5,232 55.45% 4,193 44.44% 11 0.12% 1,039 11.01% 9,436
Calhoun 33,936 66.78% 16,808 33.07% 77 0.15% 17,128 33.71% 50,821
Chambers 8,312 54.56% 6,908 45.35% 14 0.09% 1,404 9.21% 15,234
Cherokee 10,122 82.62% 2,112 17.24% 17 0.14% 8,010 65.38% 12,251
Chilton 15,708 81.69% 3,499 18.20% 22 0.11% 12,209 63.49% 19,229
Choctaw 4,188 56.47% 3,225 43.49% 3 0.04% 963 12.98% 7,416
Clarke 7,061 53.95% 6,017 45.98% 9 0.07% 1,044 7.97% 13,087
Clay 5,454 79.01% 1,441 20.87% 8 0.12% 4,013 58.14% 6,903
Cleburne 6,321 88.17% 843 11.76% 5 0.07% 5,478 76.41% 7,169
Coffee 16,400 73.95% 5,753 25.94% 25 0.11% 10,647 48.01% 22,178
Colbert 18,320 65.94% 9,408 33.86% 53 0.19% 8,912 32.08% 27,781
Conecuh 3,294 51.50% 3,098 43.44% 4 0.06% 196 8.06% 6,396
Coosa 3,559 65.10% 1,899 34.74% 9 0.16% 1,660 30.36% 5,467
Covington 14,120 81.37% 3,214 18.52% 19 0.11% 10,906 62.85% 17,353
Crenshaw 4,671 70.89% 1,910 28.99% 8 0.12% 2,761 41.90% 6,589
Cullman 35,949 86.14% 5,693 13.64% 93 0.22% 30,256 72.50% 41,735
Dale 13,653 69.51% 5,955 30.32% 33 0.17% 7,698 39.19% 19,641
Dallas 5,298 29.74% 12,503 70.18% 15 0.08% -7,205 -40.44% 17,816
DeKalb 23,940 81.86% 5,253 17.96% 53 0.18% 18,687 63.90% 29,246
Elmore 29,459 72.00% 11,399 27.86% 60 0.15% 18,060 44.14% 40,918
Escambia 10,417 65.80% 5,400 34.11% 14 0.09% 5,017 31.69% 15,831
Etowah 34,351 72.18% 13,145 27.62% 93 0.20% 21,206 44.56% 47,589
Fayette 7,088 81.00% 1,651 18.87% 12 0.14% 5,437 62.13% 8,751
Franklin 9,856 78.97% 2,605 20.87% 20 0.16% 7,251 58.10% 12,481
Geneva 10,382 82.91% 2,122 16.95% 18 0.14% 8,260 65.96% 12,522
Greene 816 17.07% 3,962 82.90% 1 0.02% -3,146 -65.83% 4,779
Hale 3,090 39.21% 4,786 60.74% 4 0.05% -1,696 -21.53% 7,880
Henry 6,399 68.95% 2,872 30.95% 9 0.10% 3,527 38.00% 9,280
Houston 31,462 68.35% 14,494 31.49% 77 0.17% 16,968 36.86% 46,033
Jackson 18,888 80.36% 4,587 19.52% 29 0.12% 14,301 60.84% 23,504
Jefferson 134,314 41.26% 190,644 58.57% 552 0.17% -56,330 -17.31% 325,510
Lamar 6,088 85.00% 1,071 14.95% 3 0.04% 5,017 70.05% 7,162
Lauderdale 30,071 68.29% 13,874 31.51% 88 0.20% 16,197 36.78% 44,033
Lawrence 11,710 73.40% 4,211 26.39% 33 0.21% 7,499 47.01% 15,954
Lee 41,154 57.76% 29,986 42.08% 114 0.16% 11,168 15.68% 71,254
Limestone 33,364 68.04% 15,584 31.78% 90 0.18% 17,780 36.26% 49,038
Lowndes 1,766 25.90% 5,051 74.07% 2 0.03% -3,285 -48.17% 6,819
Macon 1,481 16.99% 7,224 82.87% 12 0.14% -5,743 -65.88% 8,717
Madison 99,181 51.10% 94,458 48.67% 443 0.23% 4,723 2.43% 194,082
Marengo 5,166 47.56% 5,687 52.36% 9 0.08% -521 -4.80% 10,862
Marion 11,897 86.46% 1,847 13.42% 16 0.12% 10,050 73.04% 13,760
Marshall 32,086 81.22% 7,336 18.57% 83 0.21% 24,750 62.65% 39,505
Mobile 96,320 52.73% 86,034 47.10% 315 0.17% 10,286 5.63% 182,669
Monroe 5,906 55.50% 4,719 44.35% 16 0.15% 1,187 11.15% 10,641
Montgomery 32,221 32.57% 66,592 67.31% 125 0.13% -34,371 -34.74% 98,938
Morgan 38,280 71.55% 15,108 28.24% 111 0.21% 23,172 43.31% 53,499
Perry 1,274 24.42% 3,943 75.58% 0 0.00% -2,669 -51.16% 5,217
Pickens 5,439 56.40% 4,193 43.48% 11 0.11% 1,246 12.92% 9,643
Pike 7,777 56.31% 6,020 43.59% 14 0.10% 1,757 12.72% 13,811
Randolph 8,400 77.98% 2,362 21.93% 10 0.09% 6,038 56.05% 10,772
Russell 9,383 44.14% 11,853 55.77% 19 0.09% -2,470 -11.63% 21,255
Shelby 77,836 67.87% 36,606 31.92% 236 0.21% 41,230 35.95% 114,678
St. Clair 35,426 79.89% 8,844 19.94% 76 0.17% 26,582 59.95% 44,346
Sumter 1,550 24.77% 4,705 75.18% 3 0.05% -3,155 -50.41% 6,258
Talladega 21,726 60.99% 13,855 38.89% 44 0.12% 7,871 22.10% 35,625
Tallapoosa 14,668 70.04% 6,255 29.87% 20 0.10% 8,413 40.17% 20,943
Tuscaloosa 49,347 54.87% 40,404 44.92% 190 0.21% 8,943 9.95% 89,941
Walker 25,016 80.54% 5,978 19.25% 65 0.21% 19,038 61.29% 31,059
Washington 6,162 69.98% 2,635 29.92% 9 0.10% 3,527 40.06% 8,806
Wilcox 1,779 30.26% 4,095 69.65% 5 0.09% -2,316 -39.39% 5,879
Winston 9,915 88.29% 1,302 11.59% 13 0.12% 8,613 76.70% 11,230
Total 1,392,076 60.10% 920,478 39.74% 3,891 0.17% 471,598 20.36% 2,316,445

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Tuberville won 6 of 7 congressional districts.

District Jones Tuberville Elected
representative
1st 39% 61% Jerry Carl
2nd 38% 62% Barry Moore
3rd 36% 64% Mike Rogers
4th 21% 79% Robert Aderholt
5th 39% 60% Mo Brooks
6th 35% 65% Gary Palmer
7th 73% 27% Terri Sewell

Analysis

The result was a landslide victory for Tuberville. Tuberville's 20-point margin of victory is largely attributed to the presence of Donald Trump on the ballot, and Jones' votes against Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, as well as his vote to convict Donald Trump in his first impeachment trial. Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator in 2020, and his victory in 2017 was largely attributed to allegations of child molestation against his opponent. While Jones was able to receive more raw votes than he did in 2017, Tuberville received nearly double the number of votes Roy Moore did in 2017, largely due to the high Republican turnout. Jones did perform well in Jefferson County and Montgomery County, but still vastly underperformed his margins in 2017, while Tuberville easily won the rural areas, and successfully flipped many counties that went to Jones by significant margins.

In the 2017 election, Jones won several traditionally Republican counties while also driving up margins and turnout in traditionally Democratic counties: he added onto massive margins in Birmingham and Montgomery with narrow wins in the state's other, previously more conservative metropolitan areas, such as Huntsville, Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Auburn-Opelika, alongside several other small counties encircling the Black Belt. Jones' win, though attributable to a spike in Democratic turnout and a decline in Republican turnout, was primarily reliant on sexual misconduct allegations against Moore, resulting in several prominent Republicans rescinding their endorsements. With Tuberville lacking such controversies, the state swung hard into the Republican column in 2020, and he flipped 12 counties Jones won in 2017. Jones only won the 13 counties won by Joe Biden in the concurrent 2020 presidential election, and his victories in Jefferson County (Birmingham) and Montgomery County (Montgomery) were insufficient to overcome Tuberville's performance in the rest of the state.

Notes

Partisan clients and other notes

  1. ^ The Club for Growth is a PAC supporting the Donald Trump 2020 presidential campaign and has also endorsed Tuberville
  2. Poll sponsored by the Bradley Byrne campaign
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by the Jeff Sessions campaign
  4. Poll sponsored by FarmPAC
  5. Internal poll from Tuberville's campaign
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by the Tommy Tuberville campaign.
  7. Poll produced, according to Mo Brooks, by a group attempting to persuade him to enter this race
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Jones' campaign.
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  10. Standard VI response
  11. Poll sponsored by the Club for Growth, which supports exclusively Republican candidates.
  12. "Jones does not deserve to be re-elected" with 48% as opposed to "Jones deserves to be re-elected"

Voter samples

  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Not yet released
  3. Tim James with 2%
  4. Undecided with 22%
  5. ^ Undecided with 8%
  6. Undecided with 14%
  7. Undecided with 10%
  8. "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  9. Includes "Refused"
  10. "Someone else" with 4%
  11. "Write-in candidate" with 7%
  12. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  13. Parrish (I) with 2%
  14. "Write-in candidate" with 7%
  15. Parrish (I) with 3%

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Further reading

External links

Official campaign websites

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