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2020 Montana gubernatorial election

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2020 Montana gubernatorial election
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout81.33%Increase6.89
 
Nominee Greg Gianforte Mike Cooney
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kristen Juras Casey Schreiner
Popular vote 328,548 250,860
Percentage 54.43% 41.56%
County results Precinct resultsGianforte:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Cooney:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
     No data
Governor before election

Steve Bullock
Democratic

Elected Governor

Greg Gianforte
Republican

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The 2020 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the next governor of Montana, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives and various state and local elections. It resulted in voters selecting Greg Gianforte over Mike Cooney. Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Bullock was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term in office, and he ran unsuccessfully for Montana's Class II Senate seat.

Bullock's lieutenant governor, Mike Cooney, was the Democratic nominee, while the Republican nominee was Montana's at-large representative Greg Gianforte, who won the election, making him the first Republican governor of Montana since Judy Martz left office in 2005. This was the only gubernatorial seat to change partisan control in the 2020 elections. This election marked the first time since the 1920s that Republicans controlled all state constitutional offices and a majority of the Legislature.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Whitney Williams, businesswoman and daughter of former U.S. Representative Pat Williams
    • Running mate: Buzz Mattelin, farmer and president of the National Barley Growers Association

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Mike Cooney

Statewide politicians

Federal politicians

Organizations

Whitney Williams

Statewide politicians

Local politicians

Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Cooney 		Reilly
Neill 		Casey
Schreiner 		Whitney
Williams 		Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings October 7–16, 2019 40 (LV) – 19% 2% 6% 11% 62%

Results

Results by county   Cooney
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Tie
  •   50–60%
  Williams
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mike Cooney 81,527 54.86%
Democratic Whitney Williams 67,066 45.14%
Total votes 148,593 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Running mate: Jon Knokey, former state representative

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Greg Gianforte

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tim
Fox 		Greg
Gianforte 		Albert
Olszewski 		Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings October 7–16, 2019 99 (LV) – 25% 33% 9% 32%
Gravis Marketing August 28–30, 2019 433 (RV) ± 4.7% 29% 56% 15% –
Moore Information July 7–10, 2019 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 17% 56% 5% 23%

Results

Results by county   Gianforte
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Fox
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Greg Gianforte 119,247 53.44%
Republican Tim Fox 60,823 27.26%
Republican Albert Olszewski 43,080 19.30%
Total votes 223,150 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

  • Lyman Bishop, founder and CEO of Hoplite Armor
    • Running mate: John Nesper

Withdrawn

  • Ron Vandevender, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2016 and nominee for governor in 2012

Green Party

Disqualified

  • Robert Barb
    • Running mate: Joshua Thomas

Results

Green primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Robert Barb 713 100.0%
Total votes 713 100.0%

General election

Debate

Host Date & Time Link(s) Participants
Mike Cooney (D) Greg Gianforte (R)
Montana PBS October 6, 2020
6:00pm MDT 		Present Present

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Tossup October 23, 2020
Inside Elections Tossup October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean R (flip) November 2, 2020
Politico Lean R (flip) November 2, 2020
Daily Kos Lean R (flip) October 28, 2020
RCP Tossup November 2, 2020
270towin Tossup November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Mike Cooney (D)

Statewide and local politicians

Federal politicians

Organizations

Greg Gianforte (R)

U.S. Presidents

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Cooney (D) 		Greg
Gianforte (R) 		Other /
Undecided
Change Research October 29 – November 2, 2020 920 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 48% 6%
Montana State University Billings October 19–24, 2020 546 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 45% 11%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020 758 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 48% 8%
Strategies 360/NBCMT October 15–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 48% 11%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ October 15–18, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 48% 5%
47% 46% 5%
43% 50% 5%
Emerson College October 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 3.7% 41% 54% 5%
Montana State University Bozeman September 14 – October 2, 2020 1,605 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 47% 11%
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 14–16, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4.8% 39% 45% 16%
Global Strategy Group (D) August 18–23, 2020 600 (LV) – 46% 47% –
Emerson College July 31 – August 2, 2020 584 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 50% 10%
Civiqs/Daily Kos July 11–13, 2020 873 (RV) ± 4.2% 44% 47% 9%
Public Policy Polling July 9–10, 2020 1,224 (V) ± 2.8% 42% 46% 12%
University of Montana June 17–26, 2020 517 (RV) ± 4.3% 36% 46% 18%
The Progress Campaign (D) April 14–21, 2020 1,712 (RV) ± 4.6% 41% 43% 16%
Hypothetical polling

with Mike Cooney, Tim Fox, Greg Gianforte, Albert Olszewski, Ron Vandevender and Whitney Williams

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Democratic
Candidates 		Republican
Candidates 		Ron
Vandevender (L)
University of Montana February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 35.1% 61.7% 1.3%

with Mike Cooney, Tim Fox, Greg Gianforte, Reilly Neill, Albert Olszewski, Gary Perry, Casey Schreiner and Whitney Williams

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Democratic
Candidates 		Republican
Candidates
University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 40% 60.1%

with Tim Fox, Matt Rosendale, Corey Stapleton, Kathleen Williams and Whitney Williams

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Democratic
Candidates 		Republican
Candidates 		Other /
Undecided
University of Montana February 21 – March 1, 2019 293 (RV) ± 5.7% 32.4% 48.4% 19.2%

Results

2020 Montana gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican 328,548 54.43% +8.08%
Democratic 250,860 41.56% −8.69%
Libertarian
  • Lyman Bishop
  • John Nesper
 24,179 4.01% +0.61%
Total votes 603,587 100.00%
Turnout 612,075 81.33%
Registered electors 752,538
Republican gain from Democratic

By county

County Greg Gianforte

Kristen Juras Republican

Mike Cooney

Casey Schreiner Democratic

Lyman Bishop

John Nesper Libertarian

Margin Total

votes

% # % # % # % #
Beaverhead 66.81% 3,779 29.49% 1,668 3.70% 209 39.32% 2,111 5,656
Big Horn 43.35% 2,078 52.42% 2,513 4.23% 203 -9.07% -445 4,794
Blaine 43.79% 1,365 51.94% 1,619 4.27% 133 -8.15% -254 3,117
Broadwater 73.97% 3,032 22.64% 928 3.39% 139 51.33% 2,104 4,099
Carbon 60.81% 4,303 35.30% 2,498 3.89% 275 25.51% 1,805 7,076
Carter 87.28% 748 10.62% 91 2.10% 18 76.66% 657 857
Cascade 55.79% 22,221 39.97% 15,922 4.24% 1,689 15.82% 6,299 39,832
Chouteau 61.10% 1,816 35.26% 1,048 3.63% 108 25.84% 768 2,972
Custer 67.66% 3,971 27.59% 1,619 4.75% 279 40.07% 2,352 5,869
Daniels 76.11% 768 21.51% 217 2.38% 24 54.60% 551 1,009
Dawson 73.02% 3,524 23.29% 1,124 3.69% 178 49.73% 2,400 4,826
Deer Lodge 38.60% 1,881 56.37% 2,747 5.03% 245 -17.77% -866 4,873
Fallon 82.83% 1,288 14.02% 218 3.15% 49 68.81% 1,070 1,555
Fergus 72.89% 4,737 24.11% 1,567 3.00% 195 48.78% 3,170 6,499
Flathead 62.20% 37,213 34.08% 20,387 3.72% 2,225 28.12% 16,826 59,825
Gallatin 44.21% 31,368 51.85% 36,788 3.94% 2,800 7.64% 5,420 70,956
Garfield 92.37% 751 5.91% 48 1.72% 14 86.46% 703 813
Glacier 30.07% 1,709 65.62% 3,730 4.31% 245 -35.55% -2,021 5,684
Golden Valley 81.31% 409 15.91% 80 2.78% 14 65.40% 329 503
Granite 64.37% 1,348 31.47% 659 4.16% 87 32.90% 689 2,094
Hill 50.72% 3,642 43.81% 3,146 5.47% 393 6.91% 496 7,181
Jefferson 62.39% 5,097 34.17% 2,791 3.44% 281 28.22% 2,306 8,169
Judith Basin 75.56% 1,017 20.88% 281 3.56% 48 54.68% 746 1,346
Lake 53.73% 8,913 41.50% 6,885 4.77% 791 12.23% 2,028 16,589
Lewis and Clark 47.05% 19,969 49.54% 21,022 3.41% 1,448 -2.49% -1,053 42,439
Liberty 72.76% 788 24.75% 268 2.49% 27 48.01% 520 1,083
Lincoln 70.74% 8,279 25.64% 3,001 3.62% 424 45.10% 5,278 11,704
Madison 65.57% 3,992 30.83% 1,877 3.60% 219 34.74% 2,115 6,088
McCone 82.45% 921 14.77% 165 2.78% 31 67.68% 756 1,117
Meagher 74.01% 823 23.02% 256 2.97% 33 50.99% 567 1,112
Mineral 67.20% 1,715 27.67% 706 5.13% 131 39.53% 1,009 2,552
Missoula 35.55% 25,448 60.67% 43,426 3.78% 2,706 -25.12% -17,978 71,580
Musselshell 80.77% 2,318 15.68% 450 3.55% 102 65.09% 1,868 2,870
Park 50.07% 5,798 46.32% 5,364 3.61% 418 3.75% 434 11,580
Petroleum 85.43% 299 12.57% 44 2.00% 7 72.86% 255 350
Phillips 80.40% 1,908 17.36% 412 2.24% 53 63.04% 1,496 2,373
Pondera 66.10% 1,981 30.43% 912 3.47% 104 35.67% 1,069 2,997
Powder River 83.53% 943 14.35% 162 2.12% 24 69.18% 781 1,129
Powell 69.41% 2,212 26.64% 849 3.95% 126 42.77% 1,363 3,187
Prairie 74.52% 544 21.92% 160 3.56% 26 52.60% 384 730
Ravalli 65.11% 18,557 31.17% 8,883 3.72% 1,063 33.94% 9,674 28,503
Richland 78.31% 4,506 17.67% 1,017 4.02% 231 60.64% 3,489 5,754
Roosevelt 46.39% 1,859 48.94% 1,961 4.67% 187 -2.55% -102 4,007
Rosebud 63.06% 2,363 32.99% 1,236 3.95% 148 30.07% 1,127 3,747
Sanders 70.47% 5,346 24.65% 1,870 4.88% 370 45.82% 3,476 7,586
Sheridan 64.48% 1,300 31.45% 634 4.07% 82 33.03% 666 2,016
Silver Bow 34.57% 6,490 61.23% 11,495 4.20% 788 -26.66% -5,005 18,773
Stillwater 74.96% 4,292 22.06% 1,263 2.98% 171 52.90% 3,029 5,726
Sweet Grass 73.57% 1,801 22.59% 553 3.84% 94 50.98% 1,248 2,448
Teton 67.76% 2,497 28.58% 1,053 3.66% 135 39.18% 1,444 3,685
Toole 73.10% 1,546 22.13% 468 4.78% 101 50.97% 1,078 2,115
Treasure 77.82% 358 19.35% 89 2.83% 13 58.47% 269 460
Valley 68.24% 2,899 27.83% 1,182 3.93% 167 40.41% 1,717 4,248
Wheatland 72.36% 767 23.68% 251 3.96% 42 48.68% 516 1,060
Wibaux 79.49% 465 17.95% 105 2.56% 15 61.54% 360 585
Yellowstone 57.03% 48,586 36.57% 31,152 6.40% 5453 20.46% 17,434 85,191
Total 54.43% 328,548 41.56% 250,860 4.01% 24,179 12.87% 77,688 603,587

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Bishop (L) with 3%; "Don't recall" with 2%; Did not vote with 1%; Would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 1%
  3. Bishop (L) with 2%; Undecided with 9%
  4. Bishop (L) with 4%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 4%
  5. Bishop (L) with 4%; Undecided with 7%
  6. Standard VI response
  7. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  8. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  9. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  10. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  11. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  12. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  13. "Other" with 4% (including Bishop (L) with <2%); Undecided with 7%
  14. Bishop (L) with 4%; Barb (G) and would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
  15. "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  16. "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 4%
  17. Undecided with 12%
  18. Undecided with 18.3%
  19. Undecided with 16%
  20. Cooney with 21%; Williams with 14.1%
  21. Gianforte with 35%; Fox with 21.6%; Olszewski with 6.9%
  22. Cooney with 23%; Williams with 7.9%; Schreiner with 6%; Neill with 3.1%
  23. Gianforte with 35.1%; Fox with 16.1%; Olszewski with 8.1%; Perry with 0.8%
  24. Kathleen Williams with 26.6%; Cooney with 5.2%; Whitney Williams with 0.6%
  25. Fox with 16.8%; Gianforte with 16.1%; Stapleton with 8%; Rosendale with 7.5%
  26. "Someone else" with 15.4%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 3.8%

Partisan clients

  1. Commissioned by Gianforte
  2. Poll's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.

References

  1. "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  2. Arkin, James (March 9, 2020). "Bullock enters Montana Senate race". POLITICO.
  3. Gstalter, Morgan (January 18, 2021). "GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte wins Montana governor's race". The Hill.
  4. Streep, Abe (January 11, 2023). "How Montana Took a Hard Right Turn Toward Christian Nationalism". NYT.
  5. "Montana lieutenant governor joins governor's race". Associated Press News. July 3, 2019. Retrieved July 3, 2019.
  6. Cates-Carney, Corin (February 28, 2020). "Cooney Names Schreiner As Running Mate In Gov Race". mtpr.org. Montana Public Radio.
  7. Volz, Matt (October 3, 2019). "Williams now 4th Democrat in governor's race". Great Falls Tribune. Associated Press. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  8. "Former Montana lawmaker Neill drops out of governor's race". KECI. Associated Press. January 22, 2020.
  9. Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Democrat Neill drops from Montana governor's race". Great Falls Tribune.
  10. Bridge, Thom (February 3, 2020). "Casey Schreiner ends Montana gubernatorial campaign". The Missoulian. Retrieved February 3, 2019.
  11. Michels, Holly (February 28, 2020). "Cooney picks Schreiner as running mate in race for governor". Montana Standard. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
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  13. Hanson, Amy Beth (May 13, 2019). "Mayor who was refugee from Liberia announces run for Senate". Associated Press News. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
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  15. Lippman, Daniel (May 10, 2019). "'The Revenant' author considering run for Montana Senate or governor". Politico. Retrieved May 10, 2019.
  16. Punke, Michael (June 23, 2019). "As my friends and family know, I have been considering a run for Montana's senator or governor. I'm grateful for the encouragement I received. I have decided not to seek election this cycle. For my family &me, it's not the right time. Thx to all who offered advice &encouragement". @MPunke. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
  17. ^ Ambarian, Jonathon (February 27, 2020). "Democratic gubernatorial candidate Williams gets endorsement from former Gov. Schweitzer". KPAX.
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  19. ^ "Mike Cooney". ballotpedia.org.
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  21. ^ Cates-Carney, Corin (October 25, 2019). "Gov. Bullock Endorses Lt. Gov. Cooney In Gubernatorial Race". mtpr.org. Montana Public Radio.
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  23. ^ "Mike Cooney's Momentum Grows with Three Big Labor Endorsements". cooneyformontana.com. April 8, 2020.
  24. Engen, John (November 12, 2019). "Guest view: Missoula's mayor on why Whitney Williams should be Montana's next governor". Montana Standard.
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  44. Gravis Marketing
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  47. "Former Democratic legislator to run for Montana governor". The Missoulian. Associated Press. June 10, 2019. Retrieved June 10, 2019.
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  62. Siena College/NYT Upshot
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  65. Emerson College
  66. Montana State University Bozeman Archived 2020-10-15 at the Wayback Machine
  67. Siena College/NYT Upshot
  68. Global Strategy Group (D) Archived 2020-09-04 at the Wayback Machine
  69. Emerson College
  70. Civiqs/Daily Kos
  71. Public Policy Polling
  72. University of Montana
  73. The Progress Campaign (D)
  74. University of Montana
  75. University of Montana
  76. University of Montana
  77. "Montana Statewide Election Results". Montana Secretary of State. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 18, 2020.

External links

Official campaign websites

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