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2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina

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For related races, see 2020 United States Senate elections. Not to be confused with 2020 North Carolina Senate election.

2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina
← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
Turnout77.4% Increase
 
Nominee Thom Tillis Cal Cunningham
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 2,665,598 2,569,965
Percentage 48.69% 46.94%
County results Congressional district results Precinct resultsTillis:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Cunningham:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Thom Tillis
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Thom Tillis
Republican

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The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. North Carolina was one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and Democratic former state senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries.

Cunningham led Tillis in the polls throughout much of the campaign.

In early October 2020, it was reported that Cunningham had exchanged sexually suggestive messages with a married woman who was not his wife. Cunningham confirmed the texts were authentic and apologized for his behavior. The woman stated that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020.

Incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis was re-elected to a second term. Tillis outperformed pre-election polling to win a narrow victory, successfully breaking the "one-term curse" that existed with this particular Senate seat for over twenty years; as no incumbent had been re-elected to this seat since 1996. On November 10, 2020, a week after Election Day, Cunningham called Tillis to concede the race. Tillis won by a margin of 1.8% over Cunningham, slightly larger than his 1.5% victory in 2014. Tillis received a smaller vote share than Donald Trump's 49.93%, but slightly overperformed his margin of victory in North Carolina.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Thom Tillis

U.S. presidents

U.S. executive branch officials

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Sandy
Smith 		Thom
Tillis 		Garland
Tucker 		Mark
Walker 		Paul
Wright 		Other Undecided
High Point University February 21–28, 2020 247 (LV) – – 69% – – 8% 8% 16%
444 (RV) – – 58% – – 7% 10% 26%
Meredith College February 16–24, 2020 353 (LV) ± 3.0% – 53% – – 5% 6% 36%
SurveyUSA February 13–16, 2020 501 (LV) ± 5.0% – 59% – – 3% 8% 29%
High Point University January 31 – February 6, 2020 198 (LV) – – 62% – – 7% 5% 27%
400 (RV) – – 52% – – 6% 5% 38%
December 20, 2019 Smith withdraws from the race; Wright announces his candidacy
December 16, 2019 Walker announces he will not run
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) December 2–4, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 11% 63% – – – – 25%
December 2, 2019 Tucker withdraws from the race
FOX News November 10–13, 2019 574 (LV) ± 4.0% 4% 54% 11% – – 5% 26%
Public Policy Polling August 19–20, 2019 564 (V) – – 38% 31% – – – 31%
Diversified Research (R) July 8–9, 2019 500 (V) – – 40% 30% – – – 30%
WPA Intelligence (R) May 19–21, 2019 502 (LV) ± 4.5% 2% 40% 11% 17% – – 30%
2% 18% 8% 56% – – 16%
May 6, 2019 Tucker announces his candidacy
Diversified Research (R) Months before May, 2019 – – – 63% 7% – – – 30%
Hypothetical polling

with only Thom Tillis and Mark Walker

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Thom
Tillis 		Mark
Walker 		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R) May 19–21, 2019 502 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 34% 23%
28% 64% 8%
21% 69% 10%

with Thom Tillis and Generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Thom
Tillis 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R) May 19–21, 2019 502 (LV) ± 4.5% 17% 18% 52%
7% 32% 57%

Results

Results by county:   Tillis
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thom Tillis (incumbent) 608,943 78.08%
Republican Paul Wright 58,908 7.55%
Republican Larry Holmquist 57,356 7.35%
Republican Sharon Y. Hudson 54,651 7.01%
Total votes 779,858 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Cal Cunningham

Federal officials

State officials

Local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Individuals

Erica D. Smith

Federal officials

State officials

Newspapers

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Cal
Cunningham 		Trevor
Fuller 		Atul
Goel 		Erica
Smith 		Steve
Swenson 		Undecided
High Point University February 21–28, 2020 274 (LV) – 50% 4% 1% 24% 3% 18%
474 (RV) – 42% 5% 1% 24% 4% 4%
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies February 26–27, 2020 587 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 2% 1% 23% 1% 28%
NBC News/Marist February 23–27, 2020 568 (LV) ± 5.1% 51% 3% 1% 18% 2% 25%
Public Policy Polling February 23–24, 2020 852 (LV) ± 3.4% 45% 4% 1% 18% 2% 30%
Meredith College February 16–24, 2020 429 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 2% 1% 14% 2% 36%
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies February 21–23, 2020 553 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 1% 0% 21% 1% 29%
SurveyUSA February 13–16, 2020 698 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 3% 1% 17% 3% 34%
High Point University January 31 – February 6, 2020 224 (LV) – 37% 4% 0% 11% 4% 44%
397 (RV) – 29% 5% 1% 10% 5% 50%
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 2020 604 (LV) – 29% 3% 2% 10% 4% 52%
Public Policy Polling January 10–12, 2020 509 (LV) – 22% 2% 3% 12% 1% 60%
FOX News November 10–13, 2019 669 (RV) ± 4.0% 13% 10% – 18% – 49%

Results

Results by county:   Cunningham
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Smith
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cal Cunningham 717,941 56.93%
Democratic Erica D. Smith 438,969 34.81%
Democratic Trevor M. Fuller 48,168 3.82%
Democratic Steve Swenson 33,741 2.68%
Democratic Atul Goel 22,226 1.76%
Total votes 1,261,045 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Constitution Party

Nominee

Independence Party

Withdrawn

  • Jeremy Thomas

Independent write-in candidates

Withdrawn

  • Marcia Abrams
  • Lee Brian
  • Matthew Cisneros
  • Michelle Parks
  • Sunita Singh

General election

Campaign

During the Democratic primary, a Republican-funded Super PAC spent $3 million on ads attacking Cunningham and promoting left-wing rival Erica D. Smith.

Cunningham and Tillis participated in debates on September 13, September 22, and October 1.

In July, Tillis claimed Cunningham had been "silent" on the issue of defunding the police, saying,—"I assume silence is ...consent". In reality, Cunningham had spoken publicly about the issue and written an op-ed a month earlier stating his opposition to defunding the police, advocating police reform instead.

On October 3, the New York Times wrote that the race had fallen into "utter mayhem" within a period of a few hours after Tillis tested positive for COVID-19 and Cunningham admitted to exchanging sexual text messages with a woman who was not his wife, damaging an image that leaned heavily on his character and military service. Days later, the woman stated that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020. The Army Reserve started an investigation into Cunningham. The husband of the woman who stated that she had had an affair with Cunningham, himself an Army veteran, called on Cunningham to drop out of the Senate race. Asked repeatedly whether he had had other extramarital affairs, Cunningham declined to answer.

Tillis's diagnosis, which came after an outbreak at a White House ceremony for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, temporarily threw Barrett's confirmation into jeopardy, as two Republican senators had already stated their intention to vote against (though one of them would eventually vote in favor of her confirmation).

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
538 Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
Economist Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
Daily Kos Tossup October 30, 2020
DDHQ Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
Inside Elections Tilt D (flip) October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
RCP Tossup October 23, 2020
The Cook Political Report Tossup October 29, 2020
Politico Tossup November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Thom Tillis (R)

U.S. presidents

U.S. executive branch officials

Organizations

Cal Cunningham (D)

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators, representatives, and federal officials

State officials

Local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Individuals

Fundraising

In the first quarter of 2020, Cunningham outraised Tillis for the first time, receiving $4.4 million compared to the $2.1 million Tillis raised. Tillis's prior fundraising, however, left him with the advantage in cash on hand, with $6.5 million in the bank, compared to Cunningham's $3 million.

Polling

Graphical summary

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

Aggregate polls

Cal Cunningham vs. Thom Tillis
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Cal Cunningham Thom Tillis Other/Undecided Margin
270 to Win November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 47.0% 44.2% 8.8% Cunningham +2.8%
Real Clear Politics November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 47.6% 45.0% 7.4% Cunningham +2.6%

Tillis vs. Cunningham

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Thom
Tillis (R) 		Cal
Cunningham (D) 		Shannon
Bray (L) 		Other /
Undecided
Change Research/CNBC October 29 – November 1, 2020 473 (LV) ± 4.51% 46% 50% – 5%
Swayable October 27 – November 1, 2020 619 (LV) ± 5.6% 47% 53% – –
Ipsos/Reuters October 27 – November 1, 2020 707 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 48% – 6%
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 908 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 51% 1% 1%
Frederick Polls October 30–31, 2020 676 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 50% 3% 2%
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020 855 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 50% – 2%
Morning Consult October 22–31, 2020 1,982 (LV) ± 2% 43% 47% – –
CNN/SSRS October 23–30, 2020 901 (LV) ± 4% 44% 47% 2% 5%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports October 28–29, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 47% – 9%
East Carolina University October 27–28, 2020 1,103 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 48% – 5%
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) October 27–28, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 41% 6% 7%
Marist College/NBC October 25–28, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.7% 43% 53% – 4%
Gravis Marketing October 26–27, 2020 614 (LV) ± 4% 44% 46% – 9%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 26–27, 2020 937 (V) ± 3.2% 44% 47% – 9%
Meeting Street Insights/Carolina Partnership for Reform (R) October 24–27, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 47% – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 23–27, 2020 1,034 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 46% 2% 9%
Ipsos/Reuters October 21–27, 2020 647 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 48% – 4%
RMG Research October 24–26, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 49% – 9%
40% 51% – 9%
43% 48% – 9%
Swayable October 23–26, 2020 363 (LV) ± 7.1% 50% 50% – –
SurveyUSA October 23–26, 2020 627 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 48% – 7%
YouGov/UMass Lowell October 20–26, 2020 911 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 49% – 7%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) October 22–25, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.37% 43% 46% 2% 8%
YouGov/CBS October 20–23, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 4.1% 43% 49% – 8%
Trafalgar Group October 20–22, 2020 1,098 (LV) ± 2.89% 49% 47% 2% 2%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports October 20–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 45% – 10%
Citizen Data October 17–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 42% 48% – 9%
Ipsos/Reuters October 14–20, 2020 660 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 47% – 6%
Morning Consult October 11–20, 2020 1,904 (LV) ± 2.2% 42% 48% – –
Meredith College October 16–19, 2020 732 (LV) ± 3.5% 38% 43% 4% 15%
Change Research/CNBC October 16–19, 2020 521 (LV) – 45% 51% – –
Data for Progress (D) October 15–18, 2020 929 (LV) ± 3.2% 42% 46% 1% 11%
East Carolina University October 15–18, 2020 1,155 (LV) ± 3.4% 47% 48% – 5%
ABC/Washington Post October 12–17, 2020 646 (LV) ± 4.5% 47% 49% – 4%
Emerson College October 13–14, 2020 721 (LV) ± 3.6% 44% 45% – 12%
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 11–14, 2020 1,211 (LV) ± 3.3% 45% 51% 2% 3%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 9–13, 2020 627 (LV) ± 4.5% 37% 41% 4% 19%
Ipsos/Reuters October 7–13, 2020 660 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 46% – 12%
Monmouth University October 8–11, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 48% 3% 4%
500 (LV) 44% 49% – 6%
500 (LV) 47% 48% – 4%
SurveyUSA October 8–11, 2020 669 (LV) ± 4.8% 39% 49% – 11%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R) October 7–11, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 46% – 9%
RMG Research October 7–11, 2020 800 (LV) – 36% 46% 4% 15%
Morning Consult October 2–11, 2020 1,993 (LV) ± 2.2% 41% 47% – –
Ipsos/Reuters September 29 – October 6, 2020 693 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 47% – 11%
Public Policy Polling October 4–5, 2020 911 (V) ± 3.3% 42% 48% – 11%
Data For Progress (D) September 30 – October 5, 2020 1,285 (LV) ± 2.7% 39% 50% 2% 9%
Change Research/CNBC October 2–4, 2020 396 (LV) – 46% 50% – 4%
East Carolina University October 2–4, 2020 1,232 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 46% – 7%
ALG Research (D) September 22–28, 2020 822 (V) – 41% 53% – –
Hart Research Associates (D) September 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 54% – –
YouGov/CBS September 22–25, 2020 1,213 (LV) ± 3.6% 38% 48% – 14%
YouGov/UMass Lowell September 18–25, 2020 921 (LV) ± 4.1% 43% 49% – 8%
Meredith College September 18–22, 2020 705 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 43% 4% 13%
Change Research/CNBC September 18–20, 2020 579 (LV) – 43% 48% – 9%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) September 17–20, 2020 612 (LV) ± 3.96% 38% 44% 3% 15%
Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 1,604 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 38% 47% – –
Emerson College September 16–18, 2020 717 (LV) ± 3.6% 43% 49% – 8%
Morning Consult September 8–17, 2020 1,664 (LV) ± (2% – 4%) 39% 46% – –
Ipsos/Reuters September 11–16, 2020 586 (LV) ± 4.6% 44% 48% – 9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 11–16, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.3% 37% 42% 2% 19%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 12–15, 2020 1,092 (LV) ± 2.97% 38% 49% – 13%
Suffolk University September 10–14, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 42% 6% 15%
SurveyUSA September 10–13, 2020 596 (LV) ± 5.6% 40% 47% – 13%
CNN/SSRS September 9–13, 2020 787 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47% 3% 4%
893 (RV) ± 4.1% 44% 46% 4% 6%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report August 29 – September 13, 2020 1,116 (RV) – 37% 41% – 22%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 9–11, 2020 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 46% 3% 6%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research September 7–8, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% – 10%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group August 8 – September 8, 2020 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 39% 42% 5% 13%
Change Research/CNBC September 4–6, 2020 442 (LV) ± 4.6% 44% 51% – 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 30 – September 3, 2020 951 (LV) ± 3.2% 37% 47% – 16%
Monmouth University August 29 – September 1, 2020 401 (RV) ± 4.9% 45% 46% 2% 7%
401 (LV) 45% 47% – 8%
401 (LV) 46% 46% – 8%
FOX News August 29 – September 1, 2020 722 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 48% 3% 8%
804 (RV) 40% 47% 3% 10%
East Carolina University August 29–30, 2020 1,101 (LV) ± 3.4% 44% 44% – 12%
Change Research/CNBC August 21–23, 2020 560 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 52% – 6%
Morning Consult August 14–23, 2020 1,541 (LV) ± 2.0% 39% 47% – 14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies August 16–18, 2020 856 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 47% – 16%
East Carolina University August 12–13, 2020 1,255 (RV) ± 3.2% 40% 44% – 16%
Emerson College August 8–10, 2020 673 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 44% – 14%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) August 6–10, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 41% 2% 18%
Change Research/CNBC August 7–9, 2020 491 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 48% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D) July 30–31, 2020 934 (V) ± 3.2% 44% 48% – 8%
Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 2020 1,170 (LV) ± 3.2% 41% 49% – 10%
YouGov/CBS July 28–31, 2020 1,121 (LV) ± 3.8% 39% 48% – 12%
HIT Strategies (D) July 23–31, 2020 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 32% 48% – 21%
Change Research/CNBC July 24–26, 2020 284 (LV) ± 5.6% 40% 52% – 8%
Morning Consult July 17–26, 2020 1,504 (LV) ± 3.0% 37% 46% – 17%
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) July 22–24, 2020 735 (LV) ± 3.6% 43% 43% 1% 13%
Public Policy Polling July 22–23, 2020 939 (V) ± 3.2% 40% 48% – 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 19–23, 2020 919 (LV) ± 3.2% 36% 47% – 16%
Marist College/NBC News July 14–22, 2020 882 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 50% – 10%
Spry Strategies (R) July 11–16, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 40% – 20%
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) July 13–15, 2020 547 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 47% 1% 7%
Change Research/CNBC July 10–12, 2020 655 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 49% – 9%
Public Policy Polling July 7–8, 2020 818 (V) ± 3.4% 39% 47% – 15%
Change Research/CNBC June 26–28, 2020 468 (LV) ± 3.9% 41% 51% – 8%
East Carolina University June 22–25, 2020 1,149 (RV) ± 3.4% 41% 41% – 18%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2020 1,157 (V) ± 2.9% 40% 44% – 16%
FOX News June 20–23, 2020 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 39% 3% 20%
NYT Upshot/Siena College June 8–18, 2020 653 (RV) ± 4.1% 39% 42% – 19%
Gravis Marketing (R) June 17, 2020 631 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 45% – 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies June 14–17, 2020 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 36% 45% – 19%
Public Policy Polling June 2–3, 2020 913 (V) ± 3.2% 41% 43% – 16%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) May 26–28, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 36% 3% 24%
Meeting Street Insights (R) May 9–13, 2020 500 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 46% – 8%
East Carolina University May 7–9, 2020 1,111 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 41% – 19%
Civiqs/Daily Kos (D) May 2–4, 2020 1,362 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 50% – 9%
Meredith College April 27–28, 2020 604 (RV) ± 4.0% 34% 44% – 22%
SurveyUSA April 23–26, 2020 580 (LV) ± 5.5% 39% 41% – 20%
Public Policy Polling April 14–15, 2020 1,318 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 47% – 13%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) April 5–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 34% – 28%
East Carolina University February 27–28, 2020 1,288 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 42% – 14%
NBC News/Marist February 23–27, 2020 2,120 (RV) ± 2.6% 43% 48% – 9%
Public Policy Polling February 25–26, 2020 911 (RV) – 41% 46% – 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) January 11–15, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 44% – 8%
ALG Research (D) January 8–13, 2020 700 (LV) – 42% 44% – 13%
Meredith College September 29 – October 7, 2019 996 (RV) ± 3% 33% 33% – 32%
Public Policy Polling (D) September 16–17, 2019 628 (V) ± 3.9% 43% 45% – 12%
Fabrizio Ward July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 42% – 17%
Public Policy Polling June 17–18, 2019 610 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 41% – 19%
Hypothetical polling

with Erica D. Smith

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Thom
Tillis (R) 		Erica D.
Smith (D) 		Undecided
Meredith College September 29 – October 7, 2019 996 (RV) ± 3% 33% 34% 17%
Emerson College May 31 – June 3, 2019 932 (RV) ± 3.1% 39% 46% 15%

with Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Thom
Tillis (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) June 30 – July 1, 2017 1,102 (V) ± 3.6% 44% 48% 8%

with Thom Tillis and Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Thom
Tillis (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Other Undecided
Fabrizio Ward July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 26% 52% 3% 19%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Other/Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters September 11–16, 2020 586 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 48% 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 11–16, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 44% 8%
Emerson College August 8–10, 2020 673 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 44% 11%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) August 6–10, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 43% 16%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) May 26–28, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 43% 40% 17%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) April 5–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 42% 17%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released March 17, 2020 – – 44% 41% 15%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 675 (RV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% 11%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released October 17, 2019 – – 40% 41% 20%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released September 11, 2019 – – 37% 42% 21%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released August 4, 2019 – – 39% 37% 24%
Fabrizio Ward July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 44% 11%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released June 10, 2019 – – 38% 38% 24%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released May 5, 2019 – – 39% 39% 22%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released March 17, 2019 – – 37% 40% 22%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released February 13, 2019 – – 37% 38% 25%

Results

Like many Republican Senate candidates in 2020, Tillis did much better on Election Day than pre-election prediction polling indicated. The senator narrowly defeated Cunningham 48.7 to 46.9 and slightly outperformed President Trump in terms of margin of victory. Tillis's upset victory has been largely attributed to Cunningham's response to his alleged affair as well as Tillis's fierce campaigning during the last few weeks of the campaign.

2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Thom Tillis (incumbent) 2,665,598 48.69% −0.13%
Democratic Cal Cunningham 2,569,965 46.94% −0.32%
Libertarian Shannon Bray 171,571 3.13% −0.61%
Constitution Kevin E. Hayes 67,818 1.24% N/A
Total votes 5,474,952 100.00%
Republican hold

By county

By county
County Thom Tillis
Republican 		Cal Cunningham
Democratic 		Shannon Bray
Libertarian 		Kevin Hayes
Constitution 		Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # %
Alamance 44,246 51.74 38,038 44.49 2,302 2.69 922 1.08 6,208 7.26 85,508
Alexander 14,739 73.53 4,287 21.39 563 2.81 455 2.27 10,452 52.15 20,044
Alleghany 4,082 67.95 1,587 26.42 192 3.20 146 2.43 2,495 41.53 6,007
Anson 4,981 44.84 5,756 51.82 204 1.84 167 1.50 -775 -6.98 11,108
Ashe 10,619 67.91 4,279 27.37 457 2.92 281 1.80 6,340 40.55 15,636
Avery 6,865 73.65 2,079 22.30 246 2.64 131 1.41 4,786 51.35 9,321
Beaufort 15,448 59.31 9,439 36.24 706 2.71 453 1.74 6,009 23.07 26,046
Bertie 3,597 37.11 5,825 60.09 158 1.63 114 1.18 -2,228 -22.98 9,694
Bladen 8,967 53.12 7,280 43.13 399 2.36 235 1.39 1,687 9.99 16,881
Brunswick 52,971 59.38 32,180 36.08 2,881 3.23 1,170 1.31 20,791 23.31 89,202
Buncombe 60,688 37.92 92,664 57.90 5,054 3.16 1,636 1.02 -31,976 -19.98 160,042
Burke 28,934 65.51 13,108 29.68 1,309 2.96 819 1.85 15,826 35.83 44,170
Cabarrus 61,231 52.74 48,886 42.11 4,261 3.67 1,724 1.48 12,345 10.63 116,102
Caldwell 29,971 70.76 10,288 24.29 1,299 3.07 799 1.89 19,683 46.47 42,357
Camden 4,181 71.62 1,403 24.03 183 3.13 71 1.22 2,778 47.59 5,838
Carteret 28,492 67.47 11,823 28.00 1,312 3.11 601 1.42 16,669 39.47 42,228
Caswell 6,643 55.54 4,916 41.10 278 2.32 124 1.04 1,727 14.44 11,961
Catawba 54,004 65.16 24,845 29.98 2,550 3.08 1,484 1.79 29,159 35.18 82,883
Chatham 21,039 43.52 25,697 53.16 1,171 2.42 431 0.89 -4,658 -9.64 48,338
Cherokee 12,048 73.98 3,589 22.04 408 2.50 241 1.48 8,459 51.94 16,286
Chowan 4,353 56.61 3,124 40.63 139 1.81 73 0.95 1,229 15.98 7,689
Clay 4,897 71.90 1,676 24.61 140 2.05 98 1.44 3,221 47.29 6,811
Cleveland 32,022 63.06 16,752 32.99 1,235 2.43 768 1.51 15,270 30.07 50,777
Columbus 15,563 59.62 9,599 36.77 516 1.98 424 1.62 5,964 22.85 26,102
Craven 29,542 56.25 20,416 38.87 1,772 3.37 791 1.51 9,126 17.38 52,521
Cumberland 57,121 39.20 81,001 55.59 5,379 3.69 2,218 1.52 -23,880 -16.39 145,719
Currituck 11,368 71.29 3,849 24.14 554 3.47 175 1.10 7,519 47.15 15,946
Dare 13,581 56.98 9,284 38.95 766 3.21 204 0.86 4,297 18.03 23,835
Davidson 60,686 68.81 23,660 26.83 2,496 2.83 1,346 1.53 37,026 41.99 88,188
Davie 17,415 69.21 6,570 26.11 781 3.10 396 1.57 10,845 43.10 25,162
Duplin 12,954 57.75 8,689 38.73 477 2.13 312 1.39 4,265 19.01 22,432
Durham 34,152 19.20 138,429 77.40 5,041 2.82 1,224 0.68 -104,277 -58.30 178,846
Edgecombe 8,582 33.90 15,952 63.01 506 2.00 278 1.10 -7,370 -29.11 25,318
Forsyth 83,228 41.72 107,277 53.77 6,533 3.27 2,471 1.24 -24,049 -12.05 199,509
Franklin 19,654 52.94 15,659 42.18 1,246 3.36 565 1.52 3,995 10.76 37,124
Gaston 69,398 60.77 39,595 34.67 3,548 3.11 1,660 1.45 29,803 26.07 114,201
Gates 3,205 54.46 2,474 42.04 132 2.24 74 1.26 731 12.42 5,885
Graham 3,355 73.75 1,013 22.27 94 2.07 87 1.91 2,342 51.48 4,549
Granville 15,687 50.02 14,368 45.82 908 2.90 396 1.26 1,319 4.21 31,359
Greene 4,591 52.78 3,842 44.17 189 2.17 77 0.89 749 8.61 8,699
Guilford 104,908 37.18 165,823 58.77 8,587 3.04 2,819 1.00 -60,915 -21.59 282,137
Halifax 9,446 36.93 15,438 60.36 456 1.78 237 0.93 -5,992 -23.43 25,577
Harnett 33,321 57.57 21,523 37.18 2,128 3.68 911 1.57 11,798 20.38 57,883
Haywood 21,502 59.26 13,113 36.14 1,081 2.98 587 1.62 8,389 23.12 36,283
Henderson 39,359 57.99 25,782 37.99 1,964 2.89 768 1.13 13,577 20.00 67,873
Hertford 3,305 31.80 6,815 65.58 154 1.48 118 1.14 -3,510 -33.78 10,392
Hoke 8,638 40.40 11,466 53.62 909 4.25 370 1.73 -2,828 -13.22 21,383
Hyde 1,315 53.26 1,075 43.54 53 2.15 26 1.05 240 9.72 2,469
Iredell 64,319 63.44 31,893 31.46 3,487 3.44 1,687 1.66 32,426 31.98 101,386
Jackson 10,763 50.68 9,382 44.17 788 3.71 306 1.44 1,381 6.50 21,239
Johnston 64,822 58.82 39,771 36.09 3,953 3.59 1,667 1.51 25,051 22.73 110,213
Jones 3,046 55.85 2,124 38.94 182 3.34 102 1.87 922 16.91 5,454
Lee 15,419 53.70 11,851 41.27 979 3.41 465 1.62 3,568 12.43 28,714
Lenoir 13,898 49.43 13,284 47.24 591 2.10 346 1.23 614 2.18 28,119
Lincoln 34,673 69.66 12,858 25.83 1,482 2.98 763 1.53 21,815 43.83 49,776
Macon 13,408 65.35 6,248 30.45 521 2.54 340 1.66 7,160 34.90 20,517
Madison 7,399 57.17 4,987 38.53 362 2.80 195 1.51 2,412 18.64 12,943
Martin 6,034 48.57 5,973 48.08 257 2.07 160 1.29 61 0.49 12,424
McDowell 15,894 69.87 5,934 26.09 565 2.48 354 1.56 9,960 43.79 22,747
Mecklenburg 186,693 33.18 350,775 62.34 19,764 3.51 5,440 0.97 -164,082 -29.16 562,672
Mitchell 6,735 75.32 1,919 21.46 181 2.02 107 1.20 4,816 53.86 8,942
Montgomery 7,741 60.95 4,379 34.48 324 2.55 256 2.02 3,362 26.47 12,700
Moore 35,682 61.71 19,633 33.95 1,760 3.04 748 1.29 16,049 27.76 57,823
Nash 24,719 47.63 25,474 49.09 1,117 2.15 585 1.13 -755 -1.46 51,895
New Hanover 61,415 47.13 61,702 47.35 5,516 4.23 1,685 1.29 -287 -0.22 130,318
Northampton 3,720 37.16 6,005 59.98 187 1.87 99 0.99 -2,285 -22.82 10,011
Onslow 42,868 60.21 23,344 32.79 3,627 5.09 1,363 1.91 19,524 27.42 71,202
Orange 20,862 24.68 61,214 72.42 1,961 2.32 488 0.58 -40,352 -47.74 84,525
Pamlico 4,589 60.53 2,681 35.36 188 2.48 123 1.62 1,908 25.17 7,581
Pasquotank 9,491 48.31 9,421 47.95 538 2.74 198 1.01 70 0.36 19,648
Pender 20,660 61.20 11,272 33.39 1,274 3.77 553 1.64 9,388 27.81 33,759
Perquimans 4,817 64.87 2,382 32.08 139 1.87 88 1.19 2,435 32.79 7,426
Person 12,192 56.49 8,475 39.27 600 2.78 315 1.46 3,717 17.22 21,582
Pitt 37,947 43.67 45,598 52.47 2,510 2.89 846 0.97 -7,651 -8.80 86,901
Polk 7,394 60.35 4,436 36.21 286 2.33 136 1.11 2,958 24.14 12,252
Randolph 53,357 73.52 15,973 22.01 2,097 2.89 1,143 1.58 37,384 51.51 72,570
Richmond 11,002 53.85 8,510 41.65 566 2.77 352 1.72 2,492 12.20 20,430
Robeson 25,211 54.87 19,135 41.64 955 2.08 648 1.41 6,076 13.22 45,949
Rockingham 28,971 61.23 16,189 34.22 1,473 3.11 680 1.44 12,782 27.02 47,313
Rowan 46,446 63.84 22,615 31.09 2,254 3.10 1,433 1.97 23,831 32.76 72,748
Rutherford 23,596 69.26 9,136 26.82 781 2.29 554 1.63 14,460 42.45 34,067
Sampson 16,521 58.25 10,818 38.15 636 2.24 385 1.36 5,703 20.11 28,360
Scotland 7,066 48.86 6,850 47.37 322 2.23 223 1.54 216 1.49 14,461
Stanly 23,891 71.17 8,045 23.96 961 2.86 674 2.01 15,846 47.20 33,571
Stokes 18,599 72.99 5,611 22.02 812 3.19 458 1.80 12,988 50.97 25,480
Surry 25,475 70.17 9,267 25.53 1,030 2.84 531 1.46 16,208 44.65 36,303
Swain 3,846 55.17 2,696 38.67 298 4.27 131 1.88 1,150 16.50 6,971
Transylvania 11,209 55.48 8,158 40.38 552 2.73 286 1.42 3,051 15.10 20,205
Tyrrell 945 52.97 778 43.61 37 2.07 24 1.35 167 9.36 1,784
Union 79,645 61.34 45,096 34.73 3,765 2.90 1,338 1.03 34,549 26.61 129,844
Vance 7,876 37.84 12,247 58.84 455 2.19 237 1.14 -4,371 -21.00 20,815
Wake 232,388 37.05 367,718 58.63 22,230 3.54 4,893 0.78 -135,330 -21.58 627,229
Warren 3,520 34.30 6,437 62.72 194 1.89 112 1.09 -2,917 -28.42 10,263
Washington 2,584 42.05 3,329 54.17 128 2.08 104 1.69 -745 -12.12 6,145
Watauga 14,216 44.59 16,193 50.80 1,138 3.57 331 1.04 -1,977 -6.20 31,878
Wayne 29,174 53.10 23,528 42.82 1,419 2.58 823 1.50 5,646 10.28 54,944
Wilkes 25,488 72.67 8,074 23.02 924 2.64 587 1.67 17,414 49.65 35,073
Wilson 18,642 46.13 20,445 50.59 885 2.19 439 1.09 -1,803 -4.46 40,411
Yadkin 14,798 74.86 4,036 20.42 553 2.80 381 1.93 10,762 54.44 19,768
Yancey 7,038 62.39 3,833 33.98 250 2.22 159 1.41 3,205 28.41 11,280
Totals 2,665,598 48.69 2,569,965 46.94 171,571 3.13 67,818 1.24 95,633 1.75 5,474,952

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Tillis won 8 of 13 congressional districts.

District Tillis Cunningham Representative
1st 43% 53% G. K. Butterfield
2nd 35% 60% George Holding
Deborah K. Ross
3rd 59% 37% Greg Murphy
4th 32% 64% David Price
5th 64% 31% Virginia Foxx
6th 37% 59% Mark Walker
Kathy Manning
7th 56% 39% David Rouzer
8th 50% 44% Richard Hudson
9th 53% 43% Dan Bishop
10th 64% 31% Patrick McHenry
11th 53% 42% Madison Cawthorn
12th 29% 66% Alma Adams
13th 64% 32% Ted Budd

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by the Garland Tucker campaign
  2. ^ Poll conducted by the Club for Growth, a pro-Republican PAC
  3. Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  4. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  5. Poll sponsored by The American Greatness PAC, which is pro-Trump.
  6. Poll sponsored by Piedmont Rising, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  7. Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  9. This poll's sponsor had endorsed Cunningham prior to the sampling period
  10. This poll’s sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
  11. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  12. Polling was sponsored by OANN.
  13. Poll sponsored by private client
  14. Internal poll
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization that has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates
  16. Poll sponsored by VoteVets.org
  17. Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation

Voter samples and additional candidates

  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Hudson with 8%; Holmquist with 5%
  3. Holmquist and Hudson with 5%
  4. Holmquist and Hudson with 3%
  5. Holmquist and Hudson with 4%
  6. Holmquist with 3%; Hudson with 2%
  7. Hudson with 3%; Holmquist with 2%
  8. If the only candidates were Smith and Tillis
  9. "None of the above" with 5%; "other" with 0%
  10. If the only candidates were Tillis and Tucker
  11. ^ Standard VI response
  12. ^ Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Tillis
  13. ^ Not yet released
  14. Response after pollster addresses respondents with short biographies for Tillis and Walker
  15. Response after short biographies and talking points about Tillis
  16. ^ Listed as "would consider another candidate in a Republican primary"
  17. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  18. "Refused" with 2%; Did not vote, would not vote and Undecided with 1%
  19. "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  20. Hayes (C) with 1%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  21. Hayes (C) with 2%
  22. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  23. "Someone else" with 2%
  24. Hayes (C) and Undecided with 2%; "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
  25. "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  26. "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; Did/would not vote with 0%; Undecided with no voters
  27. Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  28. ^ "Other" and Undecided with 2%
  29. ^ Undecided with 9%
  30. Would not vote with 2%; Hayes (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  31. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 1%
  32. Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  33. ^ "Someoene else" with 4%; Undecided with 5%
  34. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  35. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  36. "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  37. Did not vote with 1%; "Another candidate" with no voters; Undecided with 6%
  38. Hays (C) with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  39. "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 5%
  40. Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  41. "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 6%
  42. "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  43. "Some other candidate" and "Undecided/Refused" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  44. Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 14%
  45. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  46. Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  47. Did/would not vote and "Some other candidate" with 1%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  48. "Neither" with 1%; "Other" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  49. Undecided with 12%
  50. Hayes (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  51. Hayes (C) with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 15%
  52. "Some other candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
  53. "No one" with 1%; Hayes (C) with 0%; "Other candidate" with no voters; Undecided with 3%
  54. With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  55. "Other" and Undecided with 3%
  56. With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  57. "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 8%
  58. "Other" and "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  59. Archived October 14, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  60. "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 12%
  61. "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
  62. ^ Undecided with 11%
  63. Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  64. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  65. "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  66. "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 11%
  67. "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  68. Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 12%
  69. Would not vote with 2%; "Don't recall" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  70. Bray (L) with 2%; Undecided with 13%
  71. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  72. ^ Undecided with 8%
  73. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  74. Hayes (C), "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 16%
  75. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
  76. Bray (L) with 6%; Hayes (C) and "Other" with 2%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 11%
  77. "Another candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  78. Hayes (C) with 1%; "None of these" and "Other" with no voters; Undecided with 3%
  79. Hayes (C) with 1%; "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 5%
  80. "Neither/Another Party" with 3%; "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 19%
  81. Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  82. "Another candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  83. Hayes with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 12%
  84. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  85. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 13%
  86. Hayes (C) and "No one" with 1%; "Other candidate" with <1%; Undecided with 5%
  87. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  88. ^ "Other" and Undecided with 4%
  89. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  90. Hayes (C), "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  91. Hayes (C) with 2%; "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  92. "Some other candidate" with 3%; Would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 9%
  93. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  94. "Third party/write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 13%
  95. "Some other candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  96. Undecided with 14%
  97. Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 16%
  98. Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  99. "No one" with 10%
  100. "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 9%
  101. "Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 15%
  102. Archived July 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  103. Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  104. Undecided with 13%
  105. "Third party/write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 14%
  106. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 9%
  107. "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 13%
  108. Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  109. Undecided with 7%; would not vote with 2%
  110. Undecided with 15%
  111. Undecided with 7%; would not vote with 1%
  112. Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 8%
  113. ^ Undecided with 16%
  114. Undecided with 15%; Hayes (C) with 3%; "other" and would not vote with 1%
  115. Undecided with 17%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
  116. Undecided with 16%; "Another third party/write in" with 3%
  117. Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 21%
  118. Archived June 5, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  119. Undecided with 11%; "other candidate" with 8%
  120. Undecided with 5%; "Someone else" with 4%
  121. Undecided with 20%
  122. "It is time to give a new person a chance to do better" with 50% as opposed to "Thillis has performed his job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve re-election"
  123. "Refused" with 3%
  124. "Prefer not to answer/Refused" with 4%; "Candidate from another political party" with 1%; "Will not vote/not sure" with 0%
  125. "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
  126. "Neither" and "Other Party" with 1%; Undecided with 14%
  127. ^ Undecided with 14%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
  128. Undecided with 11%; "Neither/other/independent" with 4%
  129. Undecided with 17%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
  130. Undecided with 16%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
  131. Undecided with 19%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
  132. "Undecided" with 8%; "don't know/refused" with 3%
  133. Undecided with 18%; "Neither/other/independent" with 6%
  134. Undecided with 17%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
  135. Undecided with 15%; "Neither/other/independent" with 7%
  136. Undecided with 21%; "Neither/other/independent" with 4%

References

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  149. Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
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  152. Marist College/NBC
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  187. ALG Research (D)
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